Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

Small sensation: Innsbruck gave Mr.Willi (GREENS) 52.9%!
And Austria its first GREEN mayor.

As written above, demoralisation on the Right might have been an issue (TurnOut 43.74%, FirstRound 50.38%). Also the incumbent had quasi no bonus, had taken part in establishing in Tyrol "Vorwärts Tirol", which finally flopped due to the intrigues of her and another woman.

[Georg Ebner]

Epilogue to the LandTag-election in Salzburg:
City of Salzburg:
LandTag-election 2013 (Maps of the city's 16 districts can be found at p. 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32):
www.stadt-salzburg.at/pdf/salzburg_in_zahlen_2_2013__die_landtagswahl_vom_5_.pdf

Changes Participation 2009-2013, 2013-2018, 2009-2018 (PostalVotes not included); InValid 2013-2018:


Changes 2004-2009, 2009-2013, 2013-2018:
ÖVP:

SPÖ:

GREENS:

FPÖ:

FPÖ+FPS:

[Georg Ebner]

The LandTag-election in SalzburgCity, once again.

Participation:

InValid:

(Mid)right parties:

(Mid)left parties:

[Georg Ebner]

...and finally FPÖ plus their splinter FPS:

[Georg Ebner]

Vorarlberg was polled (by IFAP; n=600):

46% (+4.0%) ÖVP
20% (-3.4%) FPÖ
12% (-5.1%) GREENS

Preferred coalition:

[Georg Ebner]

Vienna (and its new mayor) was researched by Austria's best pollster, OGM:

May'18 (Dec.'17) Party (mayor-candidate)

34 (+2) SPÖ (Ludwig 33)
27 (-2) FPÖ (v.Gudenus 12)
22 (+2) ÖVP (Blümel 11)
06 [!] (0) GREENS (Vassilakou 2 [!])
06 (-2) NEOS (MeinlRasinger [will depart into federal politics] 5)
04 (new) PILZ (Pilz 7 [!])

Unsurprisingly Ludwig performs far better among FPÖ-voters than exMayor Häupl.

[tenderbranson]

Austria will have 2 female party leaders again next month (out of the 6 major parties).

Recently, Beate Meinl-Reisinger took over the liberal NEOS party.

And at some point in August, Maria Stern (currently their speaker for women issues) will take over the List Pilz (which will likely be re-named as well).

Further down the road, it is also possible that SPÖ+Greens will have a female party leader (or at least a new leader), if for example their election results are not improving next year (EU elections, Vorarlberg state election, maybe Vienna and Styria snap state elections).

Only Kurz and Strache are cemented as party leaders for the next years to come (maybe even for 2 terms in government).

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 14, 2018 15:15:23 GMT tenderbranson said:

Austria will have 2 female party leaders again next month (out of the 6 major parties).

Recently, Beate Meinl-Reisinger took over the liberal NEOS party.

And at some point in August, Maria Stern (currently their speaker for women issues) will take over the List Pilz (which will likely be re-named as well).

At least Mrs.MeinlReisinger looks pretty (too old for You, i assume).

The only chance for ListPilz would be leftwing old men with "unorthodox" appearence (like Pilz&Noll&Voggenhuber), playing on LeftPopulism (partly xenophobic and EU-critical) a la Dutch SP, LINKE, the Skandinavian exCommies.

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 14, 2018 15:15:23 GMT tenderbranson said:

And at some point in August, Maria Stern (currently their speaker for women issues) will take over the List Pilz (which will likely be re-named as well).

But i cannot imagine, that the "party" of P.Pilz will ever happen.

[Georg Ebner]

A new poll for Styria (election are scheduled for spring2020, but SnapElec. aren't impossible):


Not so exact (left) vs. exact visions for the future:

[Devil Wincarnate]

A question for Georg Ebner. How do the Burgenland Croats and Hungarians tend to vote for?

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 7, 2019 23:36:45 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

A question for Georg Ebner. How do the Burgenland Croats and Hungarians tend to vote for?

Historically, it is said (without any data available afaik), that the Croats voted like their german surrounding: Rather red in the north (many being BlueCollars in Vienna), in the south black. The ChristianSocials tried hard to absorb these Catholics, while having to work together with the GermanNationalists. After 1945 ÖVP made a leader of them minister and finally regional PrimeMinister (Karall). Yet, SPÖ has managed to gain lots of these southern Croats since.
Thankfully the RegionalGovernment provides the numbers, how the Croatic and Hungarian municipalities (what naturally includes the german minority) votes.
Ex grege CroaticMunicipalities in the RegionalElection 2015:
+5.52% SPÖ
-1.44% ÖVP
-3.28% FPÖ
+0.43% GREENS
-0.82% LBL (exFPÖ)
-0.42% NEOS
-0.01% CPÖ (Christians)

The Hungarians colonized in the late monarchy the DistrictCapitals with their CivilServants, but are very marginalized nowadays. (Only the DistrictCapitals of Oberpullendorf and Oberwart proper, the parishes of Unterwart and Siget/Wart are mostly Hungarian.) The GREENS are in all a little bit above average, the other parties have mixed OutComes.

[Georg Ebner]

By the way: These few 10.000 Burgenland-Croats held some years ago 2 federal ministers: Defence Darabos (SPÖ) and Agriculture&Environment Berlachowitsch (ÖVP).

[Georg Ebner]

An OverView of OpinionPolls for Styria:

[Georg Ebner]

3 of the 9 regional parliaments representing all employees have voted:

Vorarlberg:

Tyrol:

Salzburg:



ÖVP has defended its only 2 Chambers, but has lost its OverallMajority in Vorarlberg. Disputes now within ÖVP's TradeUnionists in Tyrol&Vorarlberg, whether the loud criticism of the federal ÖVP&FPÖ-coalition has helped or damaged. Certainly no waves for SPÖ, but also not so glorious for PM Kurz.

[Georg Ebner]

While Kurz would be far ahead in a fictional PM-election:

...his party would be not so much elected in a FederalElection:

...and would do even worse in an election for the EuropeanParliament:

Cross-tabs for the EP-elec.:

That ÖVP made an EU-fanatic FPÖ-hater their nr.1 certainly means, that the CoalitionPartners ÖVP and FPÖ will try to make the EP-elec. a fight between them and that FPÖ has good chances to do quite well. ÖVP's strategy to place a law&order-SoS as nr.2 could end badly, though.

[Georg Ebner]

As already mentioned (?) LocalElections in SalzburgLand will be next. I want to post more in the coming week - here is a poll for SalzburgCity (150.000 inhabitants):




The ÖVP-Mayor (elected 1 year ago) hasn't achieved an IncumbencyBonus, according to this poll it will be once again very close. (Although: SPÖ+GREENS+NEOS decided few days ago to make the entrance into the historical CityCentre even more difficult for cars - what will help SPÖ's Auinger in the RunOff to gain most GREENS+NEOS-votes; but on the other hand SPÖ could be left alone by some of ist CarDrivers [areas with lots of BlueCollars and immigrants will be damaged in future by more traffic]).

[Georg Ebner]

Here is a TargetList for the 119 mayors in the Region of Salzburg:



Grey&orange&lightgreen mean, that the winner of 2014 won't participate this time; "2018" means, that the winner was replaced by a PartyColleague last year and might have a (reduced) IncumbencyBonus.


The list is ordered by the margin in the last federal RunOff between ÖVP and SPÖ, the PresidentialElection 2006 (that of 2016 [FPÖ-GREENS] is not so interesting). 2006 SPÖ's Fischer was ahead by roughly 5%, so the municipality of Grödig (where my GreatGrandFather had been mayor once) is roughly at the AustrianAverage.

Remarkable is - and no Journalist has found this out -, that all ÖVP-Mayors in rather red munic. are retiring - quite certainly not a coincidence. But the regional ÖVP hasn't pressured them out of Desperation, rather the opposite: Kurz and Haslauer are popular, making this a better time to Hand over than 2024, when ÖVP&FPÖ will be (far) less liked.

[Georg Ebner]

SalzburgCity:

[Georg Ebner]

16/119 municipalities (naturally mostly small, rural&remote ones in the InnerAlps) are counted. ÖVP +7%, SPÖ -5%, FPÖ -3.5%.
The gains for ÖVP will probably be weaker in wealthy SubUrban Salzburg.