Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Deleted]

That is a very strangely shaped region

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 2, 2022 12:44:02 GMT @europeanlefty said:

That is a very strangely shaped region

Sure. And the best is, that this land is named "BurgenLand" (=CastleLand) due to 4 burghs: PreßBurg, WieselBurg, ÖdenBurg, EisenBurg - and finally none of them came to Austria... So it's rather the Non-BurgenLand.
Nevertheless there exists a strong identification with the region.

[Georg Ebner]

Unsurprisingly SPÖ achieves so far "huge" (by BurgenlandStandards) gains of 4%, whereas ÖVP & FPÖ lose each ~2%.

[Georg Ebner]

The sum of votes the parties received in all 9 LandTag-elections:

The inCumbency-boni playing a role, of course.

[Georg Ebner]

The pollsters did not perform excellently in Tyrol, when all (less GMK) underestimated ÖVP by 5-10%, nevertheless i publish here these opinionPolls as they are partly so breath-taking:

[Georg Ebner]

BurgenLand, mayors (the runOffs will be held this sunDay):

Gainers:

Losers:

Austria-wide overView (Tyrol&Vorarlberg are hard to classify):

ÖVP-BurgenLand continuing its downWards-trend, which is in place quasi since 1945 (albeit locally less so).

[Georg Ebner]

How many citizens/inHabitants in BurgenLand were sive will be ruled by a mayor of which party?:

Austrian-wide summary:


You won't believe it - but despite that positive trend for the SPÖ on the local and regional level (48.84% in the last Landtag-election!), the BurgenLand has been trending in federal parliamentary elections to the right and voted under Kurz already right of Austria as a whole. DeViations from federal average, partyVotes measured at
- eligible votes:
-- BurgenLand minus Austria:

-- Bgld. divided by A.:

- measured at only valid votes:


Right minus Left:

[Georg Ebner]

LowerAustria (NiederÖ./NÖ) - by electorate Austria's most important region (20%; with its high turnOuts even towards 25% of voters) - will elect tomorrow/today its LandTag (and indirectly its Proporz-government).
I wrote on NÖ 5 years ago this longer essay:

vote-2012.proboards.com/post/604173

[Georg Ebner]

NÖ's deViations in federal elections, as usual in 4 variants.
Variant 1: Measured at all eligible votes, NÖ minus Austria:


Participation:








InValid:

Variant 2: Measured at all eligible votes, NÖ divided by Austria:










Variant 3: Measured at only valid votes, NÖ minus Austria:











Variant 4: Measured at only valid votes, NÖ divided by Austria:

[Georg Ebner]

The dominant ÖVP wanted - and got - a short campaignPeriod (Christmas, NewYear) and as in Tyrol it tried to outspend SPÖ on social beneFits (partly paid energyCosts, free kinderGarden aso.). But it was scandalized, that the chief of the regional studio of public BroadCaster ORF had advised ÖVP (it's an open secret, that all regional ORF-stations "belong" to the party of the Land's PM). Then the baggage of the federal ÖVP (and wÖVP-NÖ is too involved for being able to distance itself from the unpopular federal party & ÖVP-ministers). Though it came also out, that the SPÖ-leader had once cofounded a now closed bank. As a result the FPÖ will surely be the biggest winner and get the second place. Several pollsters reported last weekEnd, that the trend is against ÖVP, i.e. they expect it to sink even further; my guess is rather, that the contrary will happen: Especially elderly will fear BlueRed (which is anyWay very unlikely - even with 29/56 seats they could do not much more than elect an independent PM) and will want to save the chummy ÖVP-inCumbent (Mrs.Mikl-Leitner). OpinionPolls:

[Georg Ebner]

Here is a historical overView (left: vote-%, then MPs, then ministers, finally on the right the delegates for the small federal chamber [with very low competences], where ÖVP&Greens will likely have lost their majority today evening):

The communistic ministers after WWII (in italics) were not electorally entitled, they were additionally appointed by ÖVP&SPÖ as the region was occupied by the Red Army.

[Georg Ebner]

ProJections (45% counted):
SORA:

OGM:

[Georg Ebner]

Participation (unfortunately i haven't found any with the %-changes 2018-vs.-2023):

ÖVP (n.b.: dark-yellow = highest losses):

FPÖ:

[Georg Ebner]

Jan 30, 2023 0:03:18 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Participation (unfortunately i haven't found any with the %-changes 2018-vs.-2023)

%-change of TurnOut:



Highest inCrease in the rural&remote W&S, where FPÖ gained and ÖVP lost the most.

[Georg Ebner]

How will things go on in LowerAustria?
ÖVP's Mikl-Leitner announced, that she intends to negotiate with both. (In theory she could use the SalzburgWay, i.e. coalition with by TheGreens&NEOS, but such a 3-partyCoalition with just 30/56 seats would have only 4/9 ministers, so is not viable.) Yet, FPÖ proclaimed to elect other ÖVP-politicians, but not her: It was revealed, that the leader of NÖ's branch of public broadCaster ORF had advised her how to agitate best against FPÖ's leader Landbauer in 2018, when it came out, that his studentsClub owned books with self-ironic songs (a la "Come on Germans - let us gas a seventh million"). More important is, though, that she put pressure on federal P.M. Kurz after the IbizaVideo to take the HomeOffice away from FPÖ in general (and specifically from its present leader Kickl); what let the FPÖ leave the coalition, of course, and Kickl wants revenge. (Already in the 1960ies ÖVP-LowerA. got very nervous, when SPÖ's minister for Internal Affairs - the infamous Olah - began to infiltrate the rural areas by making SPÖers policeOfficers. Even more so now, that NÖVP has held the federal ministry 16/20 years [2000-2004, 2004-2007, 2011-2017, 2020-present].) So, Mikl-Leitner might make also FPÖ an offer for coOperation in government - after all giving FPÖ's 3 ministers jokeCompetences (a la sports, animal protection aso.) would mean, that the 6 of ÖVP&SPÖ would be overloaded with work -, but the FPÖ cannot really backtrack and elect her. Mikl-leitner had yesterDay no intention to retire and any "cooperation" (TheGreens&NEOS ruled out any coalition with FPÖ) of all the others against the for over 100 years reigning ÖVP would require an independent P.M. and so far noBody has even brought this up. That leaves by default only a "Grand" Coalition (which is no longer "grand" with SPÖ being only number 3 now) of the two electionLosers ÖVP&SPÖ, perhaps with some integration of FPÖ.

[mrpastelito]

Wouldn't it be possible for FPOe to support and elect an SPOe PM? Would SPOe accept such an offer?

[Georg Ebner]

Jan 30, 2023 19:40:40 GMT mrpastelito said:

Wouldn't it be possible for FPOe to support and elect an SPOe PM? Would SPOe accept such an offer?

According to SORA 52%:38% of voters would indeed like a non-ÖVP PM. Also, those of FPÖ prefer SPÖ to be in government a little bit more than ÖVP, but both not very much (22%:15%). And SPÖ finally would - but both have only 26/56 seats. Thus TheGreens and/or NEOS - who are strictly antiFPÖ - would be required, too. Another problem would be, that the non-charismatic old man leading the SPÖ (who was polled in a fictive direct election of the PM at just 13%) was toDay replaced by a very young without political experience. Remains the possibility of an "Independent" backed by most/all nonÖVP-factions, but could such a coalition last? With success??
In 2017 SPÖ's Kern was - according to FPÖ's Strache and others - secretly negotiating with him, so that he could remain PM and the usual "antiFa"-clowns dependent on SPÖ's imperium (ministries, ViennaCity aso.) began to excuse it "dialectically" ("in order to prohibit with ÖVP&FPÖ something far worse"). So, it's still possible (and LowerA. is neighbour to Fico/Smer, i.e. the left"liberal" journaille&MEPs would not really oppose such an agreement).
In UpperA. 1949 the SPÖ-leader, who had candidated for PMship against the ÖVP-inCumbent only pro forma, was elected with help from FPÖ's predecessor VdU - but refused to accept his election! Though that was not out of "antiFascism", but due to an austrian-wide agreement of ÖVP&SPÖ to keep the new rival in entities with more than 10.000 inhab. out of power. Nevertheless, in my SalzburgCity the SPÖ-mayor was even attending the VdU-headQuarters and - successfully - begging for support...

[Georg Ebner]

The west of LowerAustria - per se not exactly a vibrant hotSpot - has been outstanding for years: From 2013 to 2017 the FPÖ increased sharply (darkred):

...whereas it was the only area, where the new Kurz-ÖVP receded:

Then, from 2017 to 2019, the latter gained a lot there:

...while the FPÖ fell strongly back (=darkblack):

YesterDay swinging strongly once again from ÖVP to FPÖ.

[Georg Ebner]

Some journalists brought up people's resistance to Covid'19-restrictions/vaccinations playing silently still a role. And there is indeed a corRelation with vaccinations (at least 1):

[Georg Ebner]

Updated historical overView: