Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 2, 2022 22:44:04 GMT johnloony said:

Interview with the Communist leader of Graz

t.co/qSQYme7RXk

"My party comes from the tradition of the labor movement, the women’s movement, the peace and environmental movements": The latter is certainly not true; 
"the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP)": they are centre-right;
"comparatively left-wing Social Democratic Party (SPÖ)": in theory ("AustroMarxism") yes, in practice not really (but that's hard to describe).

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 1, 2022 8:08:46 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Waidhofen/Ybbs (LowerA.) elected its parliament (no direct mayoral elec.):

The first elec. after the introDuction of obligatory vaccinations by ÖVP&Greens (plus SPÖ&Neos, so all except FPÖ) brought 1/6 for the antiVaccinationers of MFG - quite something!
But after all Waidhofen/Y. is not more than a 10.000-"town", so local issues might have played a role, in federal OpinionPolls MFG is still around the threshold of 4%.

I have never delivered the town's deViations from austrian average in NationalRat-elections, with PartyVotes either measured on all eligible votes:





... or measured only on valid votes:




Despite of only 10.000 inH. Waidhofen/Ybbs is a district of its own; what gives it some special attention&inFluence (federal Speaker Sobotka is from there, for example).

[Georg Ebner]

In the near future i will be dedicated to esoterics.
Id est to the question, how close the "independent"/"bourgeois"/"civic" lists were (will be) to the ÖVP in Tyrol, where there will happen LocalElections this SunDay (except in the capital Innsbruck, the region's only city).
Kreisky was once flying with Tyrol's PM Wallnöfer in a helicopter and asked, how the majorities would be in the village below. Wallnöfer answered: "Roughly 1/3 respectively." Kreisky: "Really?! I didn't expect the FPÖ and my SPÖ to be so strong there." "No, 1/3 for the ÖBB [=ÖVP-FarmerFederation], 1/3 for the ÖWB [=ÖVP-BusinessAssociation], 1/3 for the ÖAAB [=ÖVP-TradeUnionists]." Even if invented, this anecdote would illustrate very well, how Tyrol worked: Total ÖVP-dominance in EastTyrol and the west (the mountainous & once deeply poor&catholic Upper-InnValley), less so in the more open & touristic Lower InnValley, where FPÖ & SPÖ were here and there a factor. But at the same time ÖVP-Tyrol has often been afflicted by divisions (similar to neighbour CSU [F.J.STRAUSS: "We still make us our opposition ourselves!"]), which have become more and more endemic. These days You must be happy, if a list is only called like "We for XYZ. ÖVP-XYZ and Independents", many are not assignable, they are just not officially SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens either and generally MidRight.
Tyrol's trend in federal parliamentary elections (DeViations from austrian average), measured on all eligible votes:


And measured only on valid votes:


The OpinionPolls have seen ÖVP in some free fall:

After MFG (=antiCompulsoryVacc.) received 1/6 of votes recently in a 10.000-town of LowerA. (see above) despite getting only ~6% in OpinionPolls many are nervous (especially in ÖVP % FPÖ). They will candidate in 51 of Tyrol's 278 municipalities, so quite a lot for a fresh party (and taking into account, that Tyrol's munic. are very small by population, making it hard to erect structures).

[Georg Ebner]

Tyrol, mayors 2010&2016:

[Devil Wincarnate]

The Tyrol is fabulous. One of the most enjoyable places to spend time in the German-speaking world.

[Georg Ebner]

Despite Corona suddenly being overShadowed by the war, MFG has performed, where running, well: In bigger towns only ~7%, in small villages here and there up to 28%.
Black day, as expected, for the ÖVP.
Not sure about SPÖ, FPÖ, TheGreens.
NEOS have lost their only mayor (naturally a deFector from ÖVP).

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

At least a map of the participation can be offered:

MFG - which had a focus on the NE (Lower InnValley) because of "being more open<minded>" - ran whereever it candidated under its label, so i hope to be able to provide a map of them in the next days.

[Georg Ebner]

In Tyrol only antiVaccinationObligation-party MFG ran always under its label and can as a consequence be really researched, the others not really. It achieved these numbers:

[Georg Ebner]

In Tyrol it is getting - 3 months before the snapElec. - dramatical (a little bit) with the newest OpinionPoll:

The pollster is not well-established, but even in the case of a weird methodoLogy the developments are clear. An internal from January is said to have put ÖVP already at 32%. ÖVP's hope can be, that their nominated leader is popular.

[Georg Ebner]

Things are on the verge of getting interesting in Tyrol for the first time in its history (and a loss of this region would for sure have an imPact on Austria in toto):

...although ÖVP's new man Mattle was 1 month ago the most popular leader:

That SPÖ's Dornauer (from right fringe of the party) had announced his willingness to become ÖVP's juniorPartner, was perhaps premature.

[Georg Ebner]

The pollster "PaulLazarsfeld-Society", which is naturally SPÖ-run (and cooperates with "Market", which delivers the leftliberal newsPaper "Standard"), came out with spectacular - and hard to believe - opinionPolls for 3 regions, all conducted only onLine (n=300/400/800):
LowerAustria (ÖVP's non plus ultra region):


Salzburg:


Tyrol (Landtag-election taking place soon):


The 15% for "Fritz" (Dinkhauser, exÖVP) alone look very fishy.
Their federal polls are more in line (see in the federal thread).

[Georg Ebner]

It turns out, that those outstanding opinionPolls posted above were conducted, when polling in 2 waves for federal elections (parliament&president).
What means, that the weighting was done only austrianwide and not for the regional subSamples.
And the probands were probably asked first on their federal preFerences and only then on their regional ones, what damaged the incumbencyBoni of ÖVP's regional PrimeMinisters.

[Georg Ebner]

Krems, a 25.000-town in the NW of LowerAustria, elected yesterDay its council, which will elect indirectly the mayor. The popular SPÖ-inCumbent easily - despite losses - retained his majority (darkgreen=MFG):

In federal elections Krems has - by shifting to the right (contrary to the local level, which is a lot about personalities) - turned into a mirror of the federal outComes. DeViations from austrian average, measured at all eligible votes:


...and at only the valid votes:

[Georg Ebner]

Another spectacularly bad for ÖVP regional opinionPoll, this time for UpperAustria:

[Georg Ebner]

Both Tyrols go to the polls tomorrow: SouthT. for Italy and North&East-T. for their LandTag. Having been absorbed by Sweden i have found no time to write anything, but here are the opinionPolls:

The LandTag-results since 1919:

And the deViations from austrian averge, measured at
- all eligible votes:





















- only valid votes:

[Georg Ebner]

I published on this forum a summary 5 years ago.

[Georg Ebner]

orf.at/wahl/tirol22ltw/hochrechnungen

There are also maps ("Ergebniskarten") and by the SORA-institute an ExitPoll ("Motive") and VoteStream-assumptions ("Wählerströme").

[Georg Ebner]

Change of % (measured at valid votes, not at all eligible ones) 2018 vs. 2022:
Participation:

InValid:

ÖVP, 3,33%-scale:

ÖVP once again, this time with a 1%-sacle (just like all the following):








Are there any questions/interests around this election?

[Georg Ebner]

Tomorrow local elections will be held in the BurgenLand, Austria's smallest region. The political scenery there has been very polarized since SPÖ took over regional control 1964 ("Pannonic climate"). By the way: 2017 was the first election of Kurz and ÖVP performed fairly well (although the BurgenLand is very inelastic).
Mayors: