Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 26, 2021 23:34:43 GMT cogload said:

Sept 26, 2021 18:07:04 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Graz-result (without PostalVotes):

Personally i didn't expect so strong ÖVP-losses, but expected (since 2016) a broad left majority - no wonder with the 19%/26%-lead of the left over the right camp in federal ParliamentaryElections (s. above).
Generally KPÖ has been tacitly increasing its representation in the cities - campaigning especially as in Graz on flats/rents -, what let me publish this map here in spring (i.e. before the elections in Carinthia [which did not alter much for KPÖ]):

Does Graz have a history of raging Marxists?

In my OverView posted 3 days ago You see the historical results. After WWII KPÖ achieved some 7%, but this faded away until 1983. Then a moderate recovery took place and when FPÖ collapsed 2003 (because of the federal coalition with ÖVP) the Communists reemerged from their ashes. 

[Georg Ebner]

UpperAustria's StatisticalOffice provides (nearly) perfect maps, thus i made such of Graz:

[Georg Ebner]

Apropos Graz: Pollster SORA published these tables of VoteTransfers from 2017 to 2021:

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/WSA_GR17-GR21_Graz.pdf

Not sure, anyone is interested - where are the Commies? -, in some thoughts on Graz.
Clear is, that there existed no open&outspoken desire for a "change", everyone expected ÖVP's Nagl to stay in office (although people might have been tired of him after 18 years with several burst coalitions and lots of costly ideas, which did usually not materialize). And KPÖ had not been very power-hungry (exactly, what made them likable).
Yet, last week prof. Peter Filzmaier (the main "psephologist" of PublicBroadcaster ORF) said to an InterViewer - when the MicroPhons were already off -, that a relative majority for KPÖ could be possible with those OpinionPoll-numbers. And whoever had a look at my tables, saw, that Graz had voted in recent federal elections ~20-25% to the left of Austria as a whole. Thus a left majority (at least inclusive Neos) was always quite inavoidable and Nagl would have been dependent - as in the past - on the reluctance of SPÖ & Greens to promote a rivalling left party. [Whereas after WWII KPÖ was - to some extent - supported by the ÖVP...]
Now ÖVP, FPÖ and Neos declared, that they won't elect KPÖ's leader; SPÖ intends, so it will depend on TheGreens. As KPÖ is entitled to 3/7 ministers, TheGreens would have to cooperate with FPÖ (1 minister), what is already hard to see. Adding to the fact, that their voters are in this students'-friendly city were left-wing. And any "betrayal" of a left coalition would damage the federal coalition ÖVP&Greens drastically.
Likely will be, that KPÖ has to hand over one of its 3 ministers to SPÖ (presently zero) and not entirely impossible is, that KPÖ hands over the mayor to TheGreens. (But very, very unlikely: Mrs. Kahr was - as written last week - polled as the most popular politician in Graz; she earned 5.300 PreferenceVotes, Nagl 2.600.)

[Georg Ebner]

Turns out, that a prominent KPÖ-member of the Styrian LandTag was invited to BelaRus and praised the regime on its TeleVision. (Unfortunately he is even an expert for castles - disgusting, how strong KPÖ is in the humanities...)
What will not really halt the negotiations KPÖ&Greens&SPÖ (although KPÖ plays surprisingly hard: No Greens-mayor, no minister for SPÖ).

In UpperA. ÖVP will decide on its bride next MonDay, but a continuation of ÖVP&FPÖ has for many reasons always been highly likely.

[Georg Ebner]

To noBody's surprise ÖVP-UpperAustria announced today, that they will start CoalitionTalks with the FPÖ. After imitating/surpassing the latter everything else would have been fraudulent, of course.

By the way - UpperAustria's Statistical Office released its own AnaLysis:

www.land-oberoesterreich.gv.at/Mediendateien/Formulare/Dokumente%20PraesD%20Abt_Stat/LT21-Wahlbericht.pdf

pp.41ff: various types of municipalities (OverView on pp.47-52)

pp.93ff: VoteStreams

pp.98ff: maps

[Georg Ebner]

Overshadowed by federal politics happened today the RunOffs for the mayors in UpperAustria.

The big cities aren't full counted so far and it's naturally difficult to get an OverView with dozens of small municipalities, but the results don't look too well for ÖVP. (What does surely not mean, that every remote hamlet deselected its ÖVP-mayor.)

[Georg Ebner]

According to the regional ÖVP-PrimeMinister his party has managed to get a record-high number of mayors (331/438)!? Nevertheless every third ÖVP-incumbent lost in the RunOff, among them several DistrictCapitals.

[Georg Ebner]

UpperAustria, mayor-switches in the RunOff:

How many inhabitants (left: all; right: only those with PassPort) have been governed by a mayor of which party:

[Georg Ebner]

UpperAustria, MayorElections:
Gainers:

Losers:

[Georg Ebner]

UpperAustria, mayors 2021-2027:

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors after the recent RunOffs in UpperAustria:

[Georg Ebner]

Austrianwide sums of LandTag-elections (at the end of each year with an election):

Look, at how close it was after WWII.
[Caute: Tyrol&Vorarlberg had long compulsory voting and the regional PrimeMinisters receive often lots of personal votes.]

[Georg Ebner]

Comparison of elections to LandTag and NationalRat (underlined):

[Georg Ebner]

Tyrol (ÖVP&Greens-coalition) will go to the polls in spring 2023. 2 OpinionPolls were released these days, with often sharp differences:
Gallup:

GMK (Dec. 9-15th, n=400, telePhonically):

[Georg Ebner]

Waidhofen/Ybbs (LowerA.) elected its parliament (no direct mayoral elec.):

The first elec. after the introDuction of obligatory vaccinations by ÖVP&Greens (plus SPÖ&Neos, so all except FPÖ) brought 1/6 for the antiVaccinationers of MFG - quite something!
But after all Waidhofen/Y. is not more than a 10.000-"town", so local issues might have played a role, in federal OpinionPolls MFG is still around the threshold of 4%.

[Georg Ebner]

YOU may now dismiss YOUR servant in peace. For my eyes have seen my non-salvation:
The secret "SideLetters" to the CoalitionTreaties with the personalia have been leaked, at least those of ÖVP&FPÖ 2017 and ÖVP&Greens 2019 (with hopefully more to come...):

www.profil.at/oesterreich/postenschacher-und-orf-umbau-das-geheimpapier-von-tuerkis-blau/401887412

Realiter remarkably unspectacular - a triste shadow of the glorious old days of SPÖVP, when every position everywhere "belonged" to 1 of the 2 existing NetWorks, tertium non datur - and roughly evident for any interested obServer, it's still surprising & shocking to those naive utopists voting for TheGreens (especially a HeadScarf-ban for teachers in exChange for the CEO of the public BroadCaster [ORF]...). So, surely weakening Dep.PM Kogler within the party and perhaps even causing SnapElections.

[observer]

Staggering result for the Communists in Graz

[independentukip]

Feb 1, 2022 8:08:46 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Waidhofen/Ybbs (LowerA.) elected its parliament (no direct mayoral elec.):

The first elec. after the introDuction of obligatory vaccinations by ÖVP&Greens (plus SPÖ&Neos, so all except FPÖ) brought 1/6 for the antiVaccinationers of MFG - quite something!
But after all Waidhofen/Y. is not more than a 10.000-"town", so local issues might have played a role, in federal OpinionPolls MFG is still around the threshold of 4%.

Do the elite parties permit the presumably non-injected MFG members represent their constituents within the parliament?

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 2, 2022 11:32:41 GMT independentukip said:

Feb 1, 2022 8:08:46 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Waidhofen/Ybbs (LowerA.) elected its parliament (no direct mayoral elec.):

The first elec. after the introDuction of obligatory vaccinations by ÖVP&Greens (plus SPÖ&Neos, so all except FPÖ) brought 1/6 for the antiVaccinationers of MFG - quite something!
But after all Waidhofen/Y. is not more than a 10.000-"town", so local issues might have played a role, in federal OpinionPolls MFG is still around the threshold of 4%.

Do the elite parties permit the presumably non-injected MFG members represent their constituents within the parliament?

First of all i must correct me: MFG are not directly/openly against vaccination; just against mandatory vacc..
In UpperAustria, where MFG is represented since fall, they are required to wear masks and need 1 of the "3G"s (Geimpft/Genesen/Getestet = vaccinated or recovered or tested).

[johnloony]

Interview with the Communist leader of Graz

t.co/qSQYme7RXk