Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

ÖVP with the best result in 30 years and the hughest number of mayors for ever (albeit not so difficult to achieve, considering their traditional weakness in Carinthia).

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors (violet=TK, green=EL [Slovenes], yellow=Ind.):

...incl. distributing the nominally Indep. to their parties:

[Georg Ebner]

Having captured Klagenfurt, Spittal and 2 smaller municipalities TeamKärnten/TK will clearly run for returning into the LandTag in 2 years. (Although it is highely likely, that PartyLeader and former&fresh Spittal-mayor Köfer and Klagenfurt's former&fresh Scheider won't get along with each other.)

[Georg Ebner]

The first time since 1945 (or even 1919?), that a majority of Carinthians won't be governed by SPÖ-mayors:

[Georg Ebner]

Mayors since yesterDay, austrian-wide:

[Georg Ebner]

Upper Austria will elect its LandTag this SunDay. As i haven't become less stupid in the last 6 years i can still quote, what i wrote in 2015:

"Bayernlant ist Bauernlant" (="BavarianLand is FarmersLand") wrote AVENTINUS - a bavarian Humanist - 500 years ago, also that Bavarians are rude (especially to foreigners), dislike changes and prefer mother Church to father State. Less the rudeness everything can be said about Austria, too - "Österreich ist Klösterreich" (="Austria is rich/Reich of monasteries") a.s.o.. Thus it also applies to the TransitionArea, UpperAustria. But AustriaProper (Vienna, LowerAustria, WestHungary and Bohemia) had a monarch with few magnates around him - "The 200 [or 60 or 70] Big Families" - and nothing between them and the peasants, except some gifted and brave FarmerSons, who were artificially made CivilServants and enobled. UpperAustria differed from "real" Austria, in that it had not only old and wealthy, quite independent monasteries - Mondsee, Lambach, Schlägl, Wilhering, especially Kremsmünster and St.Florian - and towns - Linz, Wels, Steyr, Enns, Freistadt, Grein, Vöcklabruck, later added by Braunau&Schärding - but also a fairly numerous nobility. These 4 tiers of the Landtag (prelates and magnates, gentry and city) were used to be in permanent rebellion against Vienna, because their LawSituation was unclear - sometimes UpperA. was independent, sometimes it belonged to LowerA. - and in the whole Reich it was prominent as "nest of calamities". So, it was no surprise, that the Landtag forced the farmers to take over protestantism. They resisted to the pressure of the ArchHouse of Habsburg, but their alliance with the Bohemian aristocracy let Bavaria invade 1620, ending the power of the tiers forever. In the UpperAustrian FarmersWar 1626 the farmers tried to hold off the CounterReformation, without success. Later U.A. came back to Austria, in the 18th century the InnViertel was added. Neighbouring LowerBavaria is often called "Bavaria bavarissima". It has fertile soil - for our levels, no comparison with the Fens or NorthEurope of course - and wealthy farmers, resulting in a weaker Catholicism and a certain reservoir for nonclerical RightWingers (BdL, BBB, BP ...). U.A. is also well known for big farms, especially the InnViertel and the East (northern TraunViertel). The North ("MühlViertel") has big farms too, but a thin film of soil on granite, thus the farmers are poorer and have been inclined the least to the NationalLiberals/GreatGermans. LowerBavaria's dialect is an extreme form of Bavarian, compared to UpperBavaria less aggressive, therefor more "bearish". UpperAustrian is softer, without being weak/charming as in LowerA. and Vienna with their Slavic substrate. Still, wealthy farmers from U.A. remind one of proletarians from Vienna because of their speaking's rudeness. "He is self-confident - no wonder, he is from U.A.!": a common word among the small peasants from LowerAustria with their decent houses, being governed before 1848 by their magnates, afterwards by the AgroCooperatives. UpperA., "The Prussians of Austria": True, too. Their administration is among the most efficient in Austria, they had no debts before 2008. HITLER and Haider were unaustrian in their appearances and antiaustrian in their ideologies. BRUCKNER seems to refute that with His humble personality. But I don't know any genius with a larger discrepance of person and work! His music is incredibly "esoterical" (=unaccessible), far away from typical Viennese one (SCHUBERT, HAYDN, MagicFlute). I cannot imagine any other area in Austria fitting to Him, without knowing BRUCKNER I wouldn't expect Him to be an Austrian, rather a NorthGerman. Even 1918-1945, when Austrians disliked Austria, they remained proud Tyroleans, Styrians a.s.o. Recently i saw en passant a poll with another result, but traditionally UpperAustrians are those least proud of their Land. U.A. is not encapsulated between mountain, it's a TransitLand. Nazi-Ethnologists once proclaimed "the UpperAustrian costume" - which derived in reality from Hungary... Before railway, the Danube was important of course for the WestEastTraffic. And before 1938 U.A. had delivered Vienna with food and had been an agrarian area. After 1938 it was industrialized and presently its sixth of austrian population produces a fourth of the industrial output. There are few fabrics artificially settled in the district of Braunau (Ranshofen, Mattighofen), but most are along the rail-/motor-way from Vienna to Salzburg: Steyr-Enns-Linz-Wels-Vöcklabruck. TraunViertel: The South and East. Fitting together, because the South has been part of "EisenWurzen" ("IronRoots"), a region including UpperStyria and most of Carinthia, SW-LowerA. and S-UpperA., whose economy was based on century-old mining (iron, salt) and wood. The "Salzkammergut" (western South, district Gmunden) has some Protestants and was an everything-but-Catholics-area (Haider was from there). The iron - in the sixteenth century Eisenwurzen generated a fourth of European iron - was shipped on river Enns to SteyrCity, thus a century-old industrial town, already in the MiddleAges a stronghold of sects. The EastEnd of U.A. is prominent for impressive FarmHouses ("Vierkanter" [~squares]) and increasing social tensions. 1848 U.A. sent 16 MPs to Frankfort, 9 of them were ConservativeCatholics. Perhaps this let the "KulturKampf" (CultureFight) between nationalistic Liberals and conservative Catholics be especially hard in U.A., likely also H.E. Bishop Rudigier, "the Lion from Linz". Nowadays some might think, that the DanubeMonarchy was a reactionary prison, but in fact in those days farmers and prelates defending Crown & Church were imprisoned by the liberal dignitaries, who controlled the press, justice - and the Landtag. But in the year Rudigier died - 1884 - the Catholic-Conservatives swept the Landtag and haven't lost their dominance anymore. (Because of their small competences and popular PrimeMinisters majorities in Austria's Länder do normally not change.) Vienna's ChristianSocials tried to take over the CathCons since 1896, but failed. (As a consequence, U.A. was dominated by the moderates in the FirstRepublic.) Ebenhoch, who had become PrimeMinister (Landeshauptmann/LH) of U.A. 1898, merged with Lueger (ChristianSocials) in the ReichsRat both parties 1907, achieving unity within the "black" (=Catholic) camp. 1908 Hauser - a priest - was installed as LH and served until 1927, nearly 20 years. That's another speciality of U.A: They elect for 6 years and have had long serving PMs, resulting in only 6 democratically elected LHs since Hauser. Since 1918 Linz has always had only red mayors (less 1934-45 of course), before 1918 the GermanNationals held that office, finally with Dinghofer, the first FirstParliamentPresident in the Vienna of 1918. Later he was Minister for Justice (1926-8), succeeded by Slama (-1930). Bachinger was Minister for Security since 1932, but the most important UpperAustrian apart from Adolf H. was - although absorbed by Vienna - Schober: Born in Perg, he became president of the Viennese Police, founded InterPol and was several times federal PrimeMinister (1921-22, 1922, 1929-30). The dominant ChristianSocials held only the AgricultureMinister Födermayr (1929-30). v.Starhemberg - leader of the HeimWehr - "served" in the 1930ies. What leads us to something interesting: The Left in Austria has always been run by Vienna (after 1945 less than before), but the centrifugal CSP/ÖVP has also been dominated by LowerAustria (~40% of PartyMembers/Delegates) with Styria (and sometimes WestA.) as "modernizing" OutSiders and the weak ÖVP-Vienna swinging between liberal BusinessPeople and conservative CivilServants. But U.A. as the fourth of the big Länder has had few prominent ÖVP-politicians. Molterer (2006-8) and Mitterlehner have been its only PartyLeaders, few ministers and few influential people like Leitl or Fekter, formerly Maleta (founder of the ÖAAB). Of course, longserving LHs like Hauser or now Pühringer have been included by the federal party in DecisionMaking (often as the decivise BridgeBuilder). The more outstanding, that the Third Camp (GreatGermans/FPÖ) has seen so many leaders from there: From Dinghofer to Foppa, plus Schober (InterWar); Reinthaller (1956-8), Peter (1958-78), Haider (1986-2000, de facto until 2005), RiessPasser (2000-2) and Haubner (2004-5), adding to 39 of 70 years. (Admittingly, Haider and RiessPasser made their careers abroad.) U.A. uses since 1918 the "Proporz", i.e. the 9 ministers are distributed proportionally (copied from Switzerland). So there are ~9% needed for an entry. But different to Switzerland, there are no fixed ministries, in theory a majority could give the MinorityMinisters no competences (vide Vienna) or only minimal ones (see LowerAustria). In UpperAustria the PowerPartitioning has ever been quite fair, also under the ÖVP&GREENS-coalition of the last 12 years. Nonetheless, central competences like personnel or finance belong to the ÖVP, also most districts (not directly elected) and companies (hospitals, energy, ...). The Landtag-ElectionResults - including those of between the WorldWar - are now published on .de.wikipedia., at least the total results. As can be seen, the CS received narrow OverAll-majorities 1919, 1925, 1931. Quite similar to LowerA., Salzburg with its dominance of the city was slightly weaker. Also, the ChurchAttendance between/after the WW in these 3 Länder was similar, lower than in WestA., but higher than in SouthA. (Styria and Carinthia), not to speak of Vienna, generally above NationalAverage. The SocialDemocrats were as weak as in Salzburg - thrice below 30%. The ThirdCamp (GreatGermans, LandBund [nationalistic-anticlerical farmers] and NSDAP) captured 20% twice, in 1931 far less. Above You can find the results per district and the maps thereto. Inevitably there was in the FirstRepublic a strong Manichaeism: The SDs with their radical AustroMarxism achieved huge majorities in the IndustrialAreas (Steyr, Linz, Wels and EisenWurzen), but were still outnumbered by the poorer farmers and craftsmen (North/MühlViertel, Eferding) voting CS and the wealthier ones preferring the GermanNationalists (West/InnViertel, also the Centre/HausruckViertel). As everywhere in Austria, this antagonism has diminished since. Especially the FPÖ has lost in the last 20 years moderate supporters and gained proletarian ones. After 1918 it performed horribly not only in the remote and conservative regions, also in the proletarian parts of the towns is was the more or the less absent. NationalSocialism changed this partly, yet a FPÖ above average in proletarian cities like Steyr or Linz was unimaginable in the early 1990ies. Remarkable is, that the VdU made inroads among FabricWorkers (and especially in UpperA.), due to the many fired Nazis, refugees from EastEurope, BombedOut and the newness of the industry there (thus missing organized TradeUnions). Later - when these public factories were run by a SPÖ-led FederalMinistry - they fell to SPÖ. 1945 - the BlueCamp was not allowed to candidate - showed, that SPÖ had improved during the Second WW by 10% (not unnormal outside Vienna). And its share of votes was increasing until 1967, when - during an inpopular ÖVP-government in Vienna - the SDs overtook ÖVP by votes (46%). ÖVP saved its grip on the Land only with the support of FPÖ (23+2=25 vs. 23 seats), therefor increasing the Landtag from 48 to 56 members. Amusingly, 1949 the VdU wanted to make the SPÖ-candidate LH; yet, exactly this - SPÖ facing the loss of Carinthia, ÖVP that of UpperA. - let the two make the 10.000-agreement (no coalition with VdU in entities with over 10.000 inhabitants). After 1967 SPÖ has continually been decreasing, caused by the unpopularity of the federal SPÖ (except during the early Vranitzky and ÖVP&FPÖ) and the popularity of the regional ÖVP-LHs, Jörg Haider, the GREENS. In U.A. the non-left GREENS (VGÖ) have been strong (as in Carinthia), hindering the left ones to enter the Landtag for a certain time. Now they are absorbed (the Mayor of Steyregg/Linz was their former leader, federal MP Moser is also a relict). Generally the GREENS of LinzCity are rather leftextreme, those of the Land rather left-"liberal", so e.g. anticlerical (no wonder, their formal president - the real one is naturally minister Anschober - is a ReligiousInstructionTeacher, such as Pühringer...). The regional SPÖ has presently a rather rightwing Unionist as FrontRunner, under Haider and Ackerl SPÖ-U.A. was leftleaning within their party. Ackerl, by the way, was initially rejected by his own party, the ÖVP-parlamentarians had to elect him minister.
Some federal MPs from U.A. have now and again been left critics of Faymann and the other Länder in WestA. are very critical of the FederalBranch, too. To a certain extent not out of conviction, but because this is the only way for powerless politicians to get attention of the media. Of course, bashing "Vienna" (i.e. the FederalGovernment) is essential for the PMs as well. The upperaustrian FPÖ - with a fifth of all PartyMembers the largest one within FPÖ - is presently lead by a young lawyer. Incidentally he came into the NationalRat 2006 (because the HausruckViertel won a BasicMandate) and is wellknown by Strache, Kickl,... He tries to be moderate - also in this campaign - and to restrengthen the ties with the industry and economy. There are also elections for all municipalities. Few know, that with those many SPÖ-towns in the central area, most UpperAustrians had a red mayor before 2009. Last time ÖVP conquered some of them (like Braunau), but if they lose more than SPÖ, then some might fall back to the SocialDemocrats. FPÖ will get only in few RunOffs naturally. Steyr is safe for SPÖ, but they might not defend the OverallMajority. Linz - nowadays only partly still industrial - had a coalition of SPÖ and GREENS, but in the last few years rather one of SPÖ and ... FPÖ! This should help the new SPÖ-Mayor despite a SpeculationScandal. FPÖ and ÖVP could get a majority in the parliament, but the incumbent mayor is ahead with 36/39% or 48% (SPÖ-polling). Wels is the only - big - hope for FPÖ, which was not far-off last time.

The shift of the exMining&Industry-areas in S&E-Austria let LowerA., Styria, Carinthia, BurgenLand as a whole move to the right, whereas the N&W - added by the city of Vienna - has been trending to the left, among them also UpperA. (despite its strong industrialization: U.A.'s 17% of austrian population produce 25% of the ind. OutPut), which is these days a perfect TossUp. Right (ÖVP&FPÖ&BZÖ) minus Left (SPÖ&Greens&Neos&KPÖ) in federal ParliamentaryElections, measured at
- all eligible votes:

- only valid votes:

BreakDown of UpperA. into single parties, measured at
- all eligible votes:


- only valid votes:


In which districts have been which movements?:



Unsurprisingly UrfahrUmgebung - once rural&remote, nowadays the SubUrbs north of Linz - has had a sharp turn. The economically thriving areas along the main MotorWay ("A1": Vienna-Salzburg) have been stagnant (as in neighboring SW-LowerA.) and - as in other parts of Austria - the rural&remote districts have for decades seen a DeCrease of the Right's huge margins, but this being reversed in the last 1-2 elections.
The LandTag-ElectionResults since 1919:

The OpinionPolls:

After the stormy fall 2015 (MassImmigration) a GrandCoalition of ÖVP with FPÖ replaced the former one with TheGreens (which had been in place since 2003; before that ÖVP&SPÖ). As one can expect, ÖVP's new PM - who is less popular than the old one, but nevertheless ÖVP's main/only policy - tries to regain as many FPÖ-voters as possible (in order to get back to over 40%) in a very open way: E.g. ÖVP's PlatForm has 95 pages, but avoids (anti)vaccination; or look at this poster:

SPÖ has the only female leader. TheGreens rely on a young theologian (once more...) and this drastic poster:

For NEOS U.A. is the only region without parl. representation (Carinthia&Burgenland can be excused):

For FPÖ the not so old Dep.PM is running again. Since Hofer's departure he is the main face of the moderate wing (proÖVPcoalition, proVacc.), so Kickl could be not entirely unhappy, if he ended below 20% and/or 3rd place. Recently "MFG" (an antiVaccination-"party") emerged and might jump over the 4%-hurdle.

[Georg Ebner]

On SunDay UpperAustria's mayors & councils will be elected, too. Before 2009 a majority of UpperAustrians were governed by SPÖ-mayors, now ÖVP has the UpperHand:


Linz - the 200.000-capital - has since 1919 always been run by SPÖ, before 2015 with TheGreens, afterwards with the FPÖ:

Despite its industrial past (with some ClothingIndustry plus - since its most famous son Adolf H. - lots of steel/chemistry/...) L. has become more and more a normal city, i.e. it has shifted to the left in federal ParliamentaryElections, measured at
- all eligible votes:


- only valid votes:


I found not more than 1 OpinionPoll:



Steyr (40.000 inhabitants) was already in the MiddleAges the center for proceeding the innerAlpine iron, making it formerly deeply red, presently one of the least left cities/towns in Austria:






Wels (60.000) was once less red than its 2 sisters and after the traumatic MassImmigration 2015 it fell to the FPÖ:

...but is clearly on the left in federal elections:




Nevertheless SPÖ - which has oscillated between confrontation&cooperation - seems to fail in replacing the (allegedly popular and doubtlessly very moderate) FPÖ-mayor. At least he might choose them this time instead of ÖVP as bride.

Graz in Styria - with 300.000 Austria's 2nd populous city (but far behind Vienna with its 2 millions) - will have SnapElections (1/2 year earlier). After 1973 this semi-industrial, semi-bourgeois city had a mayor of FPÖ (!), with ÖVP-support. Later SPÖ won back the CityHall, but not really a clear dominance and lost it once again 2003. Today the Socialists face getting wiped out by TheGreens or the - KPÖ (yes, the communists!):

The city has also been - and to an increasing extent - left federally:




The OpinionPolls:

For the third time ÖVP tries to mobilize its crowd by painting on the wall the possibility of a KPÖ-led coalition (what has to be taken into account, when looking at the OpinionPolls commissioned by ÖVP). But KPÖ's FrontWoman is the most popular politician... On the other hand a desire for change is not really detectable. The present ÖVP&FPÖ will certainly not have a majority any longer - if mayor Nagl can hang on, the SPÖ is said to be his preferred partner: after all his former marriages with Greens, KPÖ, FPÖ have been ended abruptly...
Biggest issue was the traffic: Mainly/partly caused by its situation between mountains/hills the city has despite its popularity among students&pensionists one of the worst AirQualities in the EU. Thus ÖVP&KPÖ handed over the responsibility for traffic to FPÖ, ÖVP&FPÖ to KPÖ. Now Nagl copied ÖVP-Salzburg with a plan for a SubWay, which the left parties denounced as a result as too costly...

[Georg Ebner]

Are there any questions or (special) interests?

[Georg Ebner]

Published this here some years ago on...
GRAZ:
Austria – that’s a tangent along the northern fringe of the EasternAlpes: the DanubeValley: and another tangent along the eastern fringe: the ancient AmberStreet (St.Petersburg-Venice), their crossing named Vienna. But the antagonism of dominant Vienna vs. centrifugal West has always been prevalent. For instance: While Vienna and the DanubeStreet was defended against the Turks by the emperor himself, InnerAustria (Slovenia, Carinthia and Styria) was left alone. And also presently the economical and demographical prospects of southern Austria are dire, making it a good ground for parties like FPÖ or KPÖ. But while Styria is glooming, Graz – with 270.000 inhabitants Austria’s second largest city – is booming, the largest growing LänderCapital at the moment. In the monarchy Graz was attractive for the industry (nowadays with a focus on machines and research), as it is situated between the coast and Vienna, on the other hand also for retired high-rank civil-servants (“Pensionopolis”), as it has a friendly landscape and climate (FineDust in winter is a problem though) . Thus the city has been halved into a proletarian West and a bourgeois East (CityCenter, most hospitals and universities). Electorally the liberal&democratic Bourgeoisie of the XIXth century elected naturally GermanNationalists. 1919 a non(pseudo)marxistic majority was given (28:20), but contrary to most parts of Austria Black&Blue were too divided for prohibiting a red mayor Muchitsch (originally an anarchist, later right-wing), the same happened 1924 (26:22) and 1929 (24:24). 1938 the outer ring of CityDistricts was added to the Nazis’ “city of the people’s insurrection”. The blue blog not allowed to candidate, SPÖ managed in 1945 an OverallMajority, as well as in 1968 (when the FederalGovernment consisted only of ÖVP), but normally the majorities have been unclear. In PostWarTimes this didn’t play a major role, because ÖVP and SPÖ had agreed to avoid any coalitions with VdU/FPÖ, in MiddleAustria (UpperAustria, Salzburg, Styria) the Länder “belonged” to ÖVP, the cities were “owned” by SPÖ and both had to fear revenge for serious attempts to change this harmonia mundi. Then, in 1973, the SPÖ-mayor planned the MotorWay to run through the city, what created an OutCry, mostly by the nonSPÖclientele, of course, but also by Austria’s main tabloid, the “Krone”. And although chancellor Kreisky had campaigned heavily in favour of his PartyFriend, ÖVP&FPÖ achieved a majority and made the first coalition since 1934. Most outstanding was, that ÖVP’s shy candidate handed the mayorality over to FPÖ’s Götz (in exchange, in Klagenfurt FPÖ elected the ÖVP-candidate). Strengthened in 1978 and in a very unique position within a 6%-party, Götz replaced FPÖ’s “eternal” PartyLeader Peter. And while the latter had been - as a member of the Waffen-SS - always blackmailable by the SPÖ and had run on a platform of SPÖ:no&Kreisky:yes, Götz stage-managed himself a the real opponent to Kreisky, provoking speculations of becoming chancellor instead of ÖVP’s Taus and a tough SPÖ-campaign against him (what caused a political victim: When Götz and aides were going through a proletarian district of Vienna, a man passed them, came back, stared at Götz, cried “The devil!”, ran to the next SPÖ-PartyBasis, suffered 2 CardiacInfarctions and died…). Perhaps also the failure in Vienna, perhaps only the newly emerging GREENS caused the loss of the ÖVP&FPÖ-majority, resulting in a TimeSharing of ÖVP’s Hasiba (1983-1985) and SPÖ’s Stingl (1985-2003). Nontheless, SPÖ has never really (re)gained a clear dominance, the 1990ies brought possible majorities for ÖVP&FPÖ (sive FPÖ&ÖVP) plus ÖABP (CarDrivers). After Graz having been the EU’s “CulturalCapital” (with tasteless modern architecture and exploding debts; celebrated by the provincials, ignored by the rest), Stingl stepped down and endorsed quite openly his ÖVP-deputy Nagl (!), who won in a very difficult surrounding (ÖVP+FPÖ-coalition in Vienna, quarrels in the styrian ÖVP) a relative majority. The combined Left would have had 31/56 seats, but they weren’t able to coordinate, also because of the KPÖ’s rise to unprecedented 20+% (based on their exSPÖ-FrontRunner’s engagement for cheap flats). 2008 provided ÖVP&FPÖ 29, plus BZÖ 31/56 deputies, but already before the election Nagl had announced his preference for a coalition with the GREENS, for the latter the first one in a big city (so excluding a region like UpperAustria or small cities like Bregenz). Celebrated by the left journalists, it finally collapsed because of a referendum. The EarlyElections in 2012 ended – with the parliament reduced to 48 – 24 ÖVP&FPÖ vs. 24 for the left parties (KPÖ&SPÖ&GREENS&PIRATES) and in the ProporzGovernment 3 ÖVP, 1 each KPÖ, SPÖ, FPÖ, GREENS. The second-strongest KPÖ was denied the DeputyMayor and a “WorkingAgreement” (SPÖ rejected a coalition, as FPÖ was led by a woman, who was sentenced for calling Mohammed “a child-abuser”) of ÖVP&SPÖ&FPÖ was made. FPÖ left it (due to disagreement on the budget, I think) and ÖVP&SPÖ took KPÖ, whose Mrs.Kahr was appointed DeputyMayoe therefor. Similar to the GREENS the KPÖ seceded after Nagl ruled out to hold a(nother) referendum on a HydroPowerStation (KPÖ is clearly rivaling with the GREENS for attracting ecologists). So presently all parties are in bad shape: ÖVP wants to rise back to(wards) 38%, hope that after ElectionCampaigns without much issues people will assemble behind their mayor, yet they have lost several CoalitionPartners and their only policy is mayor Nagl (who is smart, but a recent survey gave all candidates equally a “good”); SPÖ has wasted ~6 leaders in 6 years; THE GREENS run with an unknown YoungWoman/girl (although they rely the least on personalities) and have announced perhaps too openly their preference for reentering a coalition with Nagl; KPÖ caused the SnapElection; what leaves FPÖ, who once again presented the only excitement in a boring battle (“I feel foreign in Graz”), but in a city, whose many graduates (20% students) let it recently support v.d.Bellen by 2/3…

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 24, 2021 18:48:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Are there any questions or (special) interests?

Not directly in this Land, but-do you have any sense of the mood in Tyrol given recent headlines?

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 25, 2021 18:41:20 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Sept 24, 2021 18:48:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Are there any questions or (special) interests?

Not directly in this Land, but-do you have any sense of the mood in Tyrol given recent headlines?

You mean those on Corona in Ischgl aso.?
Well, the latest OpinionPolls are from late 2020 and detected no collapse of ÖVP. Usually the population tends to rally around "its" regional PrimeMinister & government as soon as "Vienna" or even nonAustrians interfere.
The mid-term prospects for (Mid)Right are evidently dire in the once "Holy Land" - here You can see the DeViations from austrian average in federal Parliamentary Elections since 1945:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1gxGw44-acP57kvreHM8Ka0fdVaZZFRWv?usp=sharing

[Georg Ebner]

UpperAustria, 1st proJection (+-2.2%):


MFG (=antiVacc.) surprisingly strong.
Not good for ÖVP & FPÖ.

[Georg Ebner]

Spectacular first numbers from Graz:

[Georg Ebner]

Graz-result (without PostalVotes):

Personally i didn't expect so strong ÖVP-losses, but expected (since 2016) a broad left majority - no wonder with the 19%/26%-lead of the left over the right camp in federal ParliamentaryElections (s. above).
Generally KPÖ has been tacitly increasing its representation in the cities - campaigning especially as in Graz on flats/rents -, what let me publish this map here in spring (i.e. before the elections in Carinthia [which did not alter much for KPÖ]):

[Georg Ebner]

UpperAustria (proJection, 93% counted):

Wels reelected the FPÖ-mayor clearly:

Wels, council:

[Georg Ebner]

The party against VaccinationObligation:

According to the poll of SORA mostly middle ages (30-59), but also younger ones; men&women quite equal.

[Georg Ebner]

Graz, VoteStreams according to SORA:

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/WSA_GR17-GR21_Graz.pdf

[Georg Ebner]

UpperAustria, according to SORA:

OpinionPoll conducted on ElectionDay:

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/SORA_ISA_Wahltagsbefragung_OOE_2021_.pdf

VoteStreams, compared to...

- LandTag-election 2015:

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/WSA_LT15-LT21_OOE_mfg_FINAL.pdf

- federal ParliamentaryElection 2019:

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/WSA_NR19-LT21_OOE_mfg_FINAL.pdf

[cogload]

Sept 26, 2021 18:07:04 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Graz-result (without PostalVotes):

Personally i didn't expect so strong ÖVP-losses, but expected (since 2016) a broad left majority - no wonder with the 19%/26%-lead of the left over the right camp in federal ParliamentaryElections (s. above).
Generally KPÖ has been tacitly increasing its representation in the cities - campaigning especially as in Graz on flats/rents -, what let me publish this map here in spring (i.e. before the elections in Carinthia [which did not alter much for KPÖ]):

Does Graz have a history of raging Marxists?

[Georg Ebner]

UpperAustria:

The DeViations in the FinalPolls of all pollsters.
Measured at 4 parties (ÖVP+FPÖ+SPÖ+Greens) and - if possible - 5 (+Neos) or even 6 (+MFG).
Market performed best because of missing each party on average by less than 1%.