Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

24/132:

-5.0% FPÖ
+4.5% others (partly exFPÖ)

[Georg Ebner]

38/132:

-4.0% FPÖ
+5.0% others
-1.5% SPÖ
+0.5% ÖVP

In Gurk, a small munic. with the cathedral, the exFPÖ-mayor ("I am a convinced national Socialist! The idea is right, only the execution was wrong.") retired.

[Georg Ebner]

Generally good results for the incumbent mayors (PV are partly missing, as written).

SPÖ defended - often with increases - Villach, St.Veit, Völkermarkt, Wolfsberg. In Spittal its ex-member (now TeamK., see above) should win against his successor.
In Klagenfurt the exFPÖ-mayor performed better than expected, SPÖ should be favoured in the RunOff, though.

[Georg Ebner]

In Heiligenblut - at the "foot" (1.300m) of Austria's highest mountain - my cousin won gloriously: The incumbent mayor, who had taken over the Indep. (proÖVP) list of His GrandFather, renounced to run against Him and as single candidate He received 92.9% YES-votes!
His new list (ÖVP&Ind.) got 80%, the corpse of His GrandFather's one sunk from 75% to 20%.

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 28, 2021 18:24:26 GMT Georg Ebner said:

In Heiligenblut - at the "foot" (1.300m) of Austria's highest mountain - my cousin won gloriously: The incumbent mayor, who had taken over the Indep. (proÖVP) list of His GrandFather, renounced to run against Him and as single candidate He received 92.9% YES-votes!
His new list (ÖVP&Ind.) got 80%, the corpse of His GrandFather's one sunk from 75% to 20%.

My cousin achieved the by far highest swing in whole Carinthia!

[Georg Ebner]

Councils (117/132 munic.):

[Georg Ebner]

The big towns are still out - and some will count their PV not before tomorrow - but TheGreens seem to have suffered defeats in the few munic. they were candidating.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 28, 2021 16:48:38 GMT Georg Ebner said:

38/132:

-4.0% FPÖ
+5.0% others
-1.5% SPÖ
+0.5% ÖVP

In Gurk, a small munic. with the cathedral, the exFPÖ-mayor ("I am a convinced national Socialist! The idea is right, only the execution was wrong.") retired.

Which particular execution? There were quite a few! (perhaps that of Engelbert Dollfuss..)

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 28, 2021 20:37:09 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Feb 28, 2021 16:48:38 GMT Georg Ebner said:

38/132:

-4.0% FPÖ
+5.0% others
-1.5% SPÖ
+0.5% ÖVP

In Gurk, a small munic. with the cathedral, the exFPÖ-mayor ("I am a convinced national Socialist! The idea is right, only the execution was wrong.") retired.

Which particular execution? There were quite a few! (perhaps that of Engelbert Dollfuss..)

...and do not misunderstand me: When defining himself a Nazi he was - iirc - president of the small federal chamber, so the iure the third-highest person in Austria. After being expelled from FPÖ he was gloriously reelected as mayor once (or even twice)...

[Foggy]

Feb 28, 2021 19:40:25 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Feb 28, 2021 18:24:26 GMT Georg Ebner said:

In Heiligenblut - at the "foot" (1.300m) of Austria's highest mountain - my cousin won gloriously: The incumbent mayor, who had taken over the Indep. (proÖVP) list of His GrandFather, renounced to run against Him and as single candidate He received 92.9% YES-votes!
His new list (ÖVP&Ind.) got 80%, the corpse of His GrandFather's one sunk from 75% to 20%.

My cousin achieved the by far highest swing in whole Carinthia!

Well done to your relative! In happier times, my little sister once went on a skiing trip to Heiligenblut. 

[Georg Ebner]

129/132 (in the 3 largest towns - Klagenfurt, Villach, Wolfsberg - the PV aren't done yet):

Councils:

Mayors (violet=TK [ex-T.Stronach], green=EL [Slovenes], yellow=others):

Elected+FirstPlaceInRunOff=Total (2015 2015-2021)

39+14=53 (60 -07) SPÖ
32+09=41 (42 -01) ÖVP
13+00=13 (22 -09) FPÖ
01+02=03 (01 +02) TK (ex-T.Stronach)
01+00=01 (02 -01) EL (Slovenes)
17+04=21 (05 +16) others (not few FPÖ-splinters)

[Georg Ebner]

SPÖ lost 4%-5% in the NW (traditional StrongHolds of ÖVP&FPÖ), while making small gains in the rest.
ÖVP gained in all districts.
FPÖ remained stable in Klagenfurt-Land and Hermagor (a small, trad. ÖVP-leaning district in the SW) and decreased everywhere else.
TheGreens performed in the few munic. they ran very badly (except in Feldkirchen, a small FPÖ-leaning district in the CN), partly certainly caused by the federal coalition, partly by their abstention from the LandTag.

[Georg Ebner]

Summa summarum the camp of SPÖ&Greens&Neos received roughly as many votes as the more fictional one of ÖVP&FPÖ. (And the plus of ÖVP was roughly as high as the minus of FPÖ.)
With the Others/Independents leaning mostly to the nonSPÖ-bloc a not so bad OutCome for the right. Especially UpperC. (=West) should be fertile soil for the right parties, as it has so many with just VocationalTraining:

[Georg Ebner]

"Provisorical final result":

VillachCity, council (the SPÖ-mayor received 60%):

KlagenfurtCity, council (the SPÖ-mayor ended narrowly ahead of her exFPÖ/BZÖ/FPK/FPÖ/TK-predecessor):

In Klagenfurt the challenger focussed more on social media, while the incumbent made a more traditional campaign. Depite a certain momentum i expect the SPÖ-incumbent to prevail, because she has been in coalition with the ÖVP, whose voters will be decisive. The prospects of the right parties in a once "bourgeois" city with a (small) university and CivilServants aren't great anyway.

[Georg Ebner]

An OverView, how the mayors have been distributed since introducing their direct eletioning (measured at number of habitants sive citizens in the Censi 1991/2001/2011):



So even in Carinthia SPÖ has lost ground in the smaller ones, i.e. on the land, while gaining KlagenfurtCity (and other semi-urban ones) means, that more Carinthians get governed by SPÖ-mayors.

[Georg Ebner]

Some more NumberCrunching:

The number of RunOffs fell from 37 to 28. The councils had 2015 in the 132 municalities 68 overAll majorities, 2021 has 74. Solidifying the impression, that the inCumbents were stengthened.
The TurnOut decreased from 76% to 73%. The share of InValid votes - contrary to expectations - too.

Detected CorRelations:

SPÖ:
+: employees; populous munic.; low & decreasing participation
-: farmers and other SelfEmployed (surely not so outstanding)

ÖVP:
+: high increase of unemploymed men 2020-2021 (!)
-: nonEUcitizens; populous munic.; valid votes (%)

FPÖ:
+: men 19-50; vocational training or technical MiddleSchool (not surprising); agriCulture (&BusinessMen)
-: (young [=19-50]) women; employees; graduates; populous munic.; valid votes (%)

TheGreens:
+: Graduates; SelfEmployed (!); commuting-out areas (!)
-: Commuting-in areas (!); BlueCollars; low formal education

Generally no measureable differences concerning average age or in- vs. de-crease of population.

[Georg Ebner]

Results of round 1 in Carinthia's 28 RunOffs this coming SunDay:



In Klagenfurt i continue to favour the SPÖ-incumbent. Her appearence of a tough doctor is not exactly very charming and she isn't popular, but her FPÖ/BZÖ/FPK/FPÖ/TS-predecessor is even more disliked. OGM polled both rounds, in round 1 they underpolled him by 10.5% and overestimated her by 7.5%; if repeated in round 2 this would mean instead of 57%:33% (10% n.a.) 49.5%:43.5% - still clear.

[Georg Ebner]

Big surprise in Klagenfurt: Without the Postal Votes Scheider stands at 54.77%.

Generally not a good day for SPÖ: Having lost the (small) DistrictCapital of Hermagor and other municipalities, probably also Spittal (4th populous town).

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

Klagenfurt is still not fully counted, but the SPÖ-inc. would need ~75%, so it's quite clear she has lost.
It was not only her not rude, but rough personality (causing troubles with the mostly ÖVP-CivilServants); also her serious style (debt-reduction aso.).

All in all SPÖ gained 6 mayors, but lost 9, among them all 3 district-capitals (Klagenfurt [100.000], Spittal [15.], Hermagor [7.]).