Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

SORA, prognosis 18.00 (15.7% counted, MoE 2.0%):

[Georg Ebner]

OGM, ProGnosis 17.56:

[Georg Ebner]

OGM, ProGnosis 18.06:

[Georg Ebner]

OGM, ProGnosis 18.21:

[Georg Ebner]

SORA, ProGnosis 18.52:

[Georg Ebner]

SORA, ProGnosis 19.00:

[Georg Ebner]

SORA, ProGnosis 20.15:

[Georg Ebner]

SORA, OpinionPoll:

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2020_grw-wien_wtb.pdf


A shorter TextAnalysis:

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2020_grw-wien_Wahlanalyse.pdf

[Georg Ebner]

Without PostalVotes (~40% of all voices):

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 10, 2020 15:10:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Less boring than the city-wide election - where the only interesting question will be, whether SPÖ will achieve those ~45% required for an OverallMajority of seats - will be those for the DistrictCouncils of InnerVienna (Districts II-IX and XX) with lots of amusing triangulaires Greens-SPÖ-ÖVP. The DistrictLeader goes automatically to the strongest party. The OutCome 2015:

In the DistrictCouncils FPÖ lost to SPÖ unsurprisingly its only DistrictPresident (in XI.Simmering), TheGreens unsurprisingly the II.Leopoldstadt (regained by SPÖ after being lost in  a ByElection). In VIII.JosephStadt TheGreens are minimally in front of the ÖVP-inc., but the PostalVotes will very likely increase the margin. XVIII.Währing - in 2015 moving from ÖVP to TheGreens - is (perhaps) undecided.

[Georg Ebner]

SORA, VoteStreams:

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/WSA_GR15_GR20_Wien.pdf

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 11, 2020 20:49:21 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 10, 2020 15:10:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Less boring than the city-wide election - where the only interesting question will be, whether SPÖ will achieve those ~45% required for an OverallMajority of seats - will be those for the DistrictCouncils of InnerVienna (Districts II-IX and XX) with lots of amusing triangulaires Greens-SPÖ-ÖVP. The DistrictLeader goes automatically to the strongest party. The OutCome 2015:

In the DistrictCouncils FPÖ lost to SPÖ unsurprisingly its only DistrictPresident (in XI.Simmering), TheGreens unsurprisingly the II.Leopoldstadt (regained by SPÖ after being lost in  a ByElection). In VIII.JosephStadt TheGreens are minimally in front of the ÖVP-inc., but the PostalVotes will very likely increase the margin. XVIII.Währing - in 2015 moving from ÖVP to TheGreens - is (perhaps) undecided.

XVIII.Währing seems to be decided in favor of TheGreens. IX.Alsergrund could switch from SPÖ (32%) to TheGreens (28%).

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 11, 2020 21:10:59 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Oct 11, 2020 20:49:21 GMT Georg Ebner said:

In the DistrictCouncils FPÖ lost to SPÖ unsurprisingly its only DistrictPresident (in XI.Simmering), TheGreens unsurprisingly the II.Leopoldstadt (regained by SPÖ after being lost in  a ByElection). In VIII.JosephStadt TheGreens are minimally in front of the ÖVP-inc., but the PostalVotes will very likely increase the margin. XVIII.Währing - in 2015 moving from ÖVP to TheGreens - is (perhaps) undecided.

XVIII.Währing seems to be decided in favor of TheGreens. IX.Alsergrund could switch from SPÖ (32%) to TheGreens (28%).

In IX.Alsergrund TheGreens are 10% behind SPÖ at today's votes, so it will clearly be defended by SPÖ. In VIII.Josefstadt it's presently 30.19% ÖVP vs. 29.50% TheGreens, what should end as a gain for TheGreens. What means, that the posted map is all-right.

[Georg Ebner]

Participation:

FPÖ:

TheGreens:

Neos:

ÖVP:

SPÖ:

Strache:

PostalVotes:

That FPÖ-map is amazing - it looks like SPÖ's for decades.

[Georg Ebner]

First place in the GemeindeRat/LandTag-elections:

Grätzl:

Precincts:

[Georg Ebner]

Major VoteStreams according to the "Institut für Wahl- ... -forschung" (using RegressionAnalysis):

Since regional election 2015:

Since federal election 2019:

[cogload]

Hopefully the far right will now be buried with a stake through the heart and garlic in the mouth for a long time.to.come.

[Georg Ebner]

Oct 13, 2020 19:32:30 GMT cogload said:

Hopefully the far right will now be buried with a stake through the heart and garlic in the mouth for a long time.to.come.

Certainly in Vienna: Under optimal conditions - few months after the InFlux of over 1 million - they didn't get more than 1/3 and failed to take away the majority from RedGreen. And the cities are trending away from (mid)right: 2020 will have been the worst result for them since 1919.

Certainly not in Austria as a whole: The market is given, the question will only be, to what extent AbStention and ÖVP and FPÖ-DeFectors (a la Haider/Strache) and non-xenophobic "populists" (a la Stronach/Dinkhauser/Pilz) can eat into it.

[Georg Ebner]

The counting for the CityCouncil is still underWay; but that for the DistrictCouncils is finished (22.Donaustadt and thus the total numbers for Vienna are provisorical):

[Georg Ebner]

DistrictCouncils, changes 2015-2020 (22.Donaustadt is - as said - nonfinal):





EDIT: If You are irritated by the huge TurnOut-InCrease in 2.Leopoldstadt: That's, because in 2015 the initial race was invalidated and a ByElection held (with naturally very low TurnOut [enabling TheGreens to capture the district from SPÖ]).