Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

NailBiting: In the municipality of Schwarzau am Steinfeld (situated in the south of LowerA.) SPÖ got in January 10 councillors, ÖVP 8, FPÖ 1. But in the secret election of the mayor the popular ÖVP-challenger received 10/19 votes. Then the defector didn't come out (the "charmant" character in eastern Austria...) and thus the 10 SPÖ-councillors were able to prohibit any decision-making and caused today's new election.

[Georg Ebner]

Vorarlberg's mayors (relying on the labels provided by an InSider from Vorarlberg):



Yellow = "MajorityElection" (without different lists)
Pink = NonPartisan lists (usually not far away from ÖVP)
LightBlue = NonPartisan lists headed by former FPÖ-candidates

[Georg Ebner]

For comparison the mayors 2015 (distribution according to ÖVP):



The different sources explain the differing colours - in fact fewest municipalities switched.

[Georg Ebner]

And the female ÖVP-mayor conquerred Schwarzau am Steinfelde:

[Georg Ebner]

Contrary to the debacle in Vorarlberg ÖVP-LowerAustria gained in today's repeated elections overAll majorities in all 3 municipalities.

Mayors:

[Georg Ebner]

OGM - usually Austria's best pollster - conducted its probably final poll for Vienna:



Making the tendencies very clear.

[Georg Ebner]

During televized debates OGM conducted OpinionPolls (n=500):

www.ogm.at/2020/10/06/live-umfragen-wahrend-der-puls4-duelle-grw-wien-20/

Lots of FPÖ&Strache-haters usually claim, that the latter "lost" the confrontations, so FPÖ's young leader winning one against TheGreens' WaterMelon-woman must mean, that she performed really terribly.

[Georg Ebner]

DeViations of Vienna and its districts from austrian average in federal elections (the PerCentages measured at the eligible votes, not the valid ones):

Participation:










Expect ÖVP to gain tomorrow especially in the proletarian areas, thus becoming everywhere equally weak (just as SPÖ is nowadays in all districts (proletarian as well as BoBo-ones) the party of the juste milieu.

[Georg Ebner]

The course of the OpinionPolls:

[Georg Ebner]

Less boring than the city-wide election - where the only interesting question will be, whether SPÖ will achieve those ~45% required for an OverallMajority of seats - will be those for the DistrictCouncils of InnerVienna (Districts II-IX and XX) with lots of amusing triangulaires Greens-SPÖ-ÖVP. The DistrictLeader goes automatically to the strongest party. The OutCome 2015:

[Georg Ebner]

As SPÖ has had an UpWards-trend i expect them to overperform the OpinionPolls (43-45%), having gained supported according to pollster OGM from GREENS, NEOS and - especially - from ÖVP (thus i expect the party led by federal FinanceMinister Blümel to end below 20%).
Lots of chatter at SocialMedia on ExFPÖ Strache (and the "BeerParty"...), but mostly in the hysterically antiFPÖ scenery, so it remains uncertain, that Strache will break the 5%-treshold.

[Georg Ebner]

Any questions, special interests?

[Georg Ebner]

Vienna's PollingStations will close in 15 minutes.

At or shortly after 17.00 MET the institute SORA will publish on public BroadCaster ORF an OpinionPoll (and OGM on private ServusTV). Later a ProJection based partly on the first PrecinctResults, but as 40% will have voted via mail, they will be more problematic than usual.
Those 40% PostalVotes will be counted tomorrow and on TursDay, so we'll have to go to bed without knowing the real results.

[Georg Ebner]

Prognosis of SORA (n=4.000, partly telephonically, partly online):

[Georg Ebner]

OGM for ServusTV:

[Georg Ebner]

OGM, motives:

Program:

Protest:

Person:

[Georg Ebner]

OGM, motives:

GovernmentParticipation:

[Georg Ebner]

OGM, motives:

Tradition:

[Georg Ebner]

SORA/ArgeWahlen/P.Hajek, motives:

FPÖ-voters:

NEOS-voters:

[Georg Ebner]

SORA/ArgeWahlen/P.Hajek, motive FederalPolitics: