Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846 
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 24, 2020 14:10:39 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 1, 2020 18:14:33 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 1, 2020 18:20:58 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 1, 2020 18:23:24 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 15, 2020 2:29:09 GMT
The local elections in Vorarlberg should have happened today; for obvious reasons they were postponed (like those in Styria in 1 week). As a small consolation for You i have updated LowerAustria, where ÖVP has recently (2020 are the numbers below; 2015 are those above) once more gained lots of SPÖ-mayors:  OverView of the mayors' parties for whole Austria:   And the map:  |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 27, 2020 14:23:56 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 27, 2020 14:32:17 GMT
ElectionResults since 1970:  Last time there was deep dissatisfaction with the region SPÖVP-government's MunicipalityMergers. Already before Corona the BattleField's were mainly SPÖ's old bastions of iron in UpperStyria or coal in Voitsberg (west of Graz), where the federal Kurz-ÖVP managed to achieve results at/above Austrian average for the first time ever. Since the virus ÖVP is in federal polls above 40% (virtually, at least), but with an already negative trend. (And will the ShopKeepers, who have suffered heavily during the LockDown, stay loyal to them?) |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 28, 2020 13:06:35 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 28, 2020 18:34:18 GMT
Everything is counted except Leoben, the industrial capital of UpperStyria.
Participation fell from a historic low last time by 11 more percents (63% instead of 74%).
SPÖ performed better in the towns, meaning, that they will finally gain ~1% and avoid a feared debacle.
ÖVP will have improved by ~4.4%, FPÖ decreased by ~5.7%. Difficult to decide, how many of these transfers were caused by the Ibiza-video and how many were just inavoidable, as those 7.3% FPÖ had gained in spring 2015 (so before the MassImmigration in summer) were mostly ProtestVoters because of MunicipalityMergers and cuts of the regional SPÖVP-government.
All in all roughly, what had been expectable before the Corona-crisis.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 28, 2020 19:53:14 GMT
Changes on district-level:  Unfortunately i won't have enough time for making those of the municipalities in the near future. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 28, 2020 20:57:46 GMT
First place:  Second place:  Participation:  |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 29, 2020 17:43:02 GMT
The maps of %-changes in district-level posted above make it obvious, that FPÖ lost mainly to ÖVP and abstention, but also to SPÖ.
Despite the extent of gains for ÖVP were, what has been expectable, the party-HeadQuarters might be disappointed secretly: ÖVP gained strongly in the Voitsberg-area (BrownCoal) and captured in UpperStyria SPÖ-fortresses like Selzthal (RailWay) or Eisenerz (where the ErzBerg, a mountain made up entirely of iron, is situated, making it the centre of mining), all diminishing and with lots of elderly - but no broad BreakThrough (as Kurz managed federally) was achieved. To some extent caused certainly by the fact, that the people didn't want to vote their popular SPÖ-mayors, who get still elected by the councils in Styria, out of office.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 9, 2020 19:33:19 GMT
EpiLogue to Styria: While i myself do not have the expensive and difficult computer-programs for clustering the Styrian results a scientist had a closer look at them and found out, that NEOS, which had in the regional elections last fall an electorate very similar to GREENS and KPOE (!), moved more into the mid. But more important is, that ÖVP is now a party quite similar to FPÖ and being now at least in Styria on municipial level a party of the less wealthy (rich ShopKeepers being outnumbered by farmers and BlueCollars)!
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 15, 2020 13:51:34 GMT
Only few weeks before the election in Vienna Strache - polled around the 5%-treshold - is permanently in the news: He was living mainly in Klosterneuburg outside of Vienna, causing doubts on his electibility; and his list has several Corona-deniers/appeasers.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 18, 2020 17:40:24 GMT
Only few weeks before the election in Vienna Strache - polled around the 5%-treshold - is permanently in the news: He was living mainly in Klosterneuburg outside of Vienna, causing doubts on his electibility The Electoral Commission of Vienna's district III (Landstraße), where Strache claims to be living, voted 6:3 (all versus FPÖ) in favour of his electibility. The city's Administration Court will decide soonly on this. Hofer said, that FPÖ won't appeal, but farleft WANDEL might do. So not impossible we'll see another repeated election as it happened in 2016. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 21, 2020 13:01:38 GMT
City of Vienna: Party:  Mayor (fictive; is elected by the council):  "Is Mr.Strache selectable?":  |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 4, 2020 21:36:09 GMT
Vienna's election is scheduled for October 11th. The course of PublicOpinion:   Preferred Mayor (fictional; realiter he is elected by the council):  As expected SPÖ has been moving towards 40% and will probably do even some % better: Mayor Ludwig won SPÖ's leadership election as the man of the party's right wing, with quite some popularity among FPÖ-voters. Since then he moved to the centre in order to pacify both wings and win over also "WaterMelons" dissatified with the federal ÖVP&GREENS-coalition. The other parties have not managed to put policies onto the agenda, because GREENS and ÖVP intend to be SPÖ's JuniorPartner, FPÖ is weakened and Strache being viewed by ~85% a persona non grata. Additionally the 3 tabloids avoid any critics, as they depend on the CityHall's hefty advertisements ("Krone", "Österreich") or are directly owned by SPÖ (Metro-FreeAtCharge "Heute"). Thus the many problems of a city a more and more slipping into a slum aren't addressed. (For example: Although the CityGov. handled the CoronaVirus partly badly any critics of ÖVP's HomeMinister was decried as Viennese-bashing. Or: The exploding costs of a new hospital were simply "solved" by - renaming the spital...) As everywhere the BusinessPeople have been moving into the SubUrbs, leaving the city to left graduates, CivilServants, ImMigrants. Demonstrated by the DeViations from NationalAverage in FederalElection-results, when ÖVP led by Kurz - a Viennese! - received the 3th- & 4th-worst results since 1945, FPÖ the 2nd-worst (1949 doesn't count for certain reasons):  Thus i doubt, that ÖVP can really jump above 20%. Also it is quite apparent, that their "BabyFace"-FrontRunner Blümel prefers to remain federal FinanceMinister instead of becoming DeputyMayor. For the GREENS it will be very difficult to perform worse than 2015, when the fictive battle SPÖ-vs.-FPÖ shortly after the MassImmigration pushed them down to unimpressive 12%. But i'd guess, that they'll do 1-3% worse than polled due to the WaterMelons going to SPÖ (or KPÖ/TheLeft). Their leader is from the left wing, what might help them on that flank a bit. Their main medium of advertising though is federal HealthMinister Anschober (from UpperAustria!), who is still the (second)most popular minister after PM Kurz, but after several legal bunglings his numbers have fallen a lot recently, at least in this 1 OpinionPoll:  |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2020 14:39:18 GMT
In Vorarlberg LocalElections will be held tomorrow. Mayors: 2005:  2010:  2015:  Especially in the rural-remote NE ("BregenzerWald") there are lots of silent elections and/or non-partisan lists (generally closest to ÖVP, some are "bourgeois" [=ÖVP&FPÖ], some really independent). FPÖ had formerly held Lustenau for decades, but lost it and the party has been declining in Vorarlberg because of Strache's appeal to the more deprived elements of the WorkingClass in eastern&southern Austria. SPÖ narrowly missed 2015 DistrictCapital Bludenz in the south (but lost clearly in a new election demanded by them due to IrRegularities). Another target for them is the region's capital Bregenz (ÖVP&GREENS-run), but that will already be difficult to achieve. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2020 15:08:34 GMT
By the way: While the electorate for RunOffs gets usually petrified in my country, this time 354 Britons would have been eligible to elect in March (the regular date), but won't be tomorrow.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2020 13:52:45 GMT
In Vorarlberg 67/96 municipalities are counted, naturally not the interesting ones (larger towns in the west, at river Rhine).
SPÖ manged to defend its 2 mayors in smaller villages (Bürs & St.Gallenkirch) and can hope for more (Bludenz & Bregenz).
FPÖ defended 1 mayor (Vandans), but lost another 1 (Fußach).
|
|
