Austrian nonFederal Elections

[Georg Ebner]

This SunDay BurgenLand & LowerAustria (local elections) will go to the polls.
Historical OverView of BurgenLand:

[Georg Ebner]

BurgenLand's DeViations from austrian average in federal elections (EP-ones in italics):

[Georg Ebner]

Burgenland (4% of austrian population) and nearly all of LowerAustria's municipalities (the exceptions being bigger towns like capital St.Pölten, Krems, Stockerau and Waidhofen/Ybbs) will vote.

Burgenland was polled only thrice:
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_im_Burgenland_2020
Despite my InClination for extravagant PreDictions didn't work so well for the federal election last fall, i would nonetheless guess, that SPÖ will perform better than polled (also caused by mercy of people with the health-problems of PM Doskozil concerning his voice).
There exists a 4%-treshold.
Like Burgenland's SPÖ, which campaigned as "Team Doskozil" without any reference to SPÖ, most mayors of this party in LowerA. have hidden their affiliation. (Bizarrely unknown non-SPÖers published in Amstetten huge&expensive&professional posters of the SPÖ-incumbent together with RendiWagner, which were immediately removed by SPÖ...)

[Georg Ebner]

Jan 25, 2020 14:28:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Like Burgenland's SPÖ, which campaigned as "Team Doskozil" without any reference to SPÖ, most mayors of this party in LowerA. have hidden their affiliation. (Bizarrely unknown non-SPÖers published in Amstetten huge&expensive&professional posters of the SPÖ-incumbent together with RendiWagner, which were immediately removed by SPÖ...)

Here is the sujet:
image.kurier.at/images/cfs_landscape_616w_347h/4079616/46-156410338.jpg
Amstetten is strongly targetted by ÖVP (even Kurz visited the town). Other hopes for ÖVP are expanding their basis in the prominent towns gained last time (WienerNeustadt, Gmünd, Gänserndorf - all SPÖ-ruled 1945-2015). 16 of the 18 DistrictCapitals voting tomorrow are already in their hands. ÖVP-LowerA. clearly has had a long-hand DeCaptitation-strategy. (As a result they haven't introduced with FPÖ/Greens the direct election of mayors - LowerA. is the only region except Styria, where it is still the council, that decides -: They will try to reduce the number of SPÖ-incumbents even further.)

[Georg Ebner]

Jan 25, 2020 14:28:20 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Despite my InClination for extravagant PreDictions didn't work so well for the federal election last fall, i would nonetheless guess, that SPÖ will perform better than polled (also caused by mercy of people with the health-problems of PM Doskozil concerning his voice.)

This time my PreDiction was right, and the pollsters terribly left/wrong:

wahl.bgld.gv.at/wahlen/lt20200126.nsf/vwGKZ/10000

[Georg Ebner]

Here are the results of LowerAustria's municipalities:

www.noe.gv.at/wahlen/G20201/Index.html?area=g#/G30502.htm

All in all ÖVP even increased its grip on the land, gaining indeed Amstetten, defending WienerNeustadt, Gmünd, Gänserndorf aso.; doing less well - at a first look - in Vienna's SubUrbs.

[ibfc]

Not much to cheer in Austrian elections these days for FPO sympathisers like me

[Georg Ebner]

LowerAustria is counted. Totally it's ÖVP +2.3%, SPÖ -3%, FPÖ -2% aso.:

www.noe.gv.at/wahlen/G20201/Index.html?area=l

In once deeply red ("die Allzeitgetreue") WienerNeustadt ÖVP was close to an OverallMajority of seats!

[Georg Ebner]

Jan 26, 2020 18:53:12 GMT ibfc said:

Not much to cheer in Austrian elections these days for FPO sympathisers like me

After losing 9% federally, in Vorarlberg and in Styria, it were only 5% in Burgenland.
Indeed FPÖ remains - like SPÖ - in troubles these days: Strache trying a ComeBack; the double leadership Kickl ("bad cop") and Hofer ("nice cop") is not comparable to 1 public face ("Führer" FPÖ's enemies would say) like Strache (let alone a clever one like Haider). Also ÖVP has understood very well, that they'll need the traditional conservatives plus the freshly gained xenophobic BlueCollars in order to stay on the top. (ÖVP&Greens has not even signed the UNO-MigrationTreaty as all - i too - had expected!)

[Georg Ebner]

VoteStreams in Burgenland (according to SORA):

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2020_LTW-Bgld_Waehlerstroeme_Tabellen.pdf

[Georg Ebner]

Remarkable in Burgenland is, that SPÖ lost (!) votes in the NE, exactly in the municipalities, where exPM Niessl came from.
I have not seen maps and don't know the location of every municipality, but at a first look it seems, that SPÖ gained most - not a new trend - in poor, rural&remote SouthB., formerly fortress of ÖVP (and in the First Republic - and very recently - of the GermanNationals/FPÖ, also due to not few protestants living there).

[Georg Ebner]

SORA's VoteStream-AnaLysis (this time compared to the FederalElection 4 months ago):

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2020_LTW-Bgld_NRW19-LTW20.pdf

[Georg Ebner]

Once again SORA-Institute ("ExitPoll", i.e. an OpinionPoll before/on ElectionDay):

www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2020_LTW-Bgld_Wahlanalyse-Grafiken.pdf

[Georg Ebner]

"Institut für WahlForschung" (once comparison to LandTag-election 2015, once to the FederalElection last fall):

[Georg Ebner]

BurgenLand, historical OverView:

[Georg Ebner]

Wiener Neustadt, historical OverView:

[Georg Ebner]

E.Neuwirth, prof.em. for statistics, came to these VoteStreams:

[Georg Ebner]

First:

Second:

Participation:

FPÖ:

GREENS:

LBL (exFPÖ):

NEOS:

ÖVP:

SPÖ:

[Foggy]

Jan 27, 2020 14:17:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

NEOS:

It amuses me how one of the two towns with the darkest shade on this map is called Pinkafeld. 

[Georg Ebner]

Jan 27, 2020 23:20:43 GMT Foggy said:

Jan 27, 2020 14:17:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

NEOS:

It amuses me how one of the two towns with the darkest shade on this map is called Pinkafeld. 

... and above all FPÖ's Hofer has to live in PinkaFeld. Would certainly prefer "BlauFeld" ("BlueField").