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Post by markgoodair on Jan 15, 2018 11:57:10 GMT
Alliance appear to have had their best result in the history of the constituency in last year's Assembly election. But it's still below 3%. Hopefully they will at least be able to keep their deposit this time, |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 15, 2018 13:37:31 GMT
My parents-in-law live in the constituency. If there was an Alliance core vote in the seat, they'd probably be it. But there isn't. The past few elections I think they've voted SDLP as they quite like McCrossan, though my father-in-law has voted SF in the past.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 14:19:56 GMT
Think this is an early ruiner for many peoples predictions.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Jan 15, 2018 14:37:14 GMT
Ah I see, thank you. I just remember at the time his request to be released. It's about time the parliamentary authorities stopped this nonesense about MPS only being able to resign through appointment to a fictional office. You can resign from the Lords but not from the Commons - pure idoicy As this would require legislation, its the MPs themselves who have the power to do something about that. As for the by election itself, would be delighted at any gain here, a loss for SF is a win for decency. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 15, 2018 14:46:34 GMT
Ah I see, thank you. I just remember at the time his request to be released. It's about time the parliamentary authorities stopped this nonesense about MPS only being able to resign through appointment to a fictional office. You can resign from the Lords but not from the Commons - pure idoicy Probably, but saving departing Sinn Féin MPs from embarrassment is the worst possible reasons for making what is ultimately a token change. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 15, 2018 16:19:18 GMT
It's about time the parliamentary authorities stopped this nonesense about MPS only being able to resign through appointment to a fictional office. You can resign from the Lords but not from the Commons - pure idoicy As this would require legislation, its the MPs themselves who have the power to do something about that. As for the by election itself, would be delighted at any gain here, a loss for SF is a win for decency. So much for moving on. As the alternative is the DUP I want Sinn Fein to hold the seat. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 16:20:08 GMT
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Post by warofdreams on Jan 15, 2018 16:32:08 GMT
A lot of wishful thinking on this thread, it'll be SF ahead of the DUP again, probably a fair bit closer than before but can't see that enough of the SF vote fleeing here, with a new candidate, to change the outcome.
Only thing that would make a bit more interesting would be a single unionist candidate. Probably still an SF victory, there's not much UUP vote left to take. Not sure what UUP policy is on single unionist candidates at the moment - overall, they've not really benefited from them in the past.
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 15, 2018 16:41:52 GMT
So much for moving on. As the alternative is the DUP I want Sinn Fein to hold the seat. No, there is a floor on the unionist vote. It may appear that they are the main challenger but in reality it’s the SDLP The SDLP got 5635 last time - Sinn Fein 22060. Very little chance of DUP voters opting for SDLP or vice versa. |
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Post by therealriga on Jan 15, 2018 18:30:31 GMT
Obviously this will be a SF hold unless there is a massive surge in the SDLP vote to allow the DUP a chance of coming down the middle and taking the seat. More interesting and relevant will be the overall SF-Unionist swing: if the DUP's deal with the Conservatives has had any significant impact on the vote that could affect unionist chances in Fermanagh & South Tyrone in the future (hopefully for the better). Any SF-Unionist swing would be small and more to do with differential turnout than any significant numbers switching across the divide. It would take a number of unlikely factors, big swing to SDLP, single Unionist, large numbers of nationalists etc for SF to lose. Doubt the DUP-Conservative deal will make any big difference. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jan 15, 2018 20:58:03 GMT
Someone with a conscious GAIN from sinn fein
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 15, 2018 21:27:42 GMT
Someone with a conscious GAIN from sinn fein They would almost certainly be conscious, yes. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 15, 2018 21:28:34 GMT
Someone with a conscious GAIN from sinn fein They would almost certainly be conscious, yes. Unlike many of their voters |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 21:32:56 GMT
I'd be interested to see if there is a backlash against the DUP & SF for the trouble at Stormont. Also I'm led to believe this is a border constitency. Idk if that will have an effect considering the importance of a deal to secure a soft border
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jan 15, 2018 22:04:42 GMT
Might only be one Unionist candidate if UU proposal for a “non-partisan candidate” is accepted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 22:09:46 GMT
Might only be one Unionist candidate if UU proposal for a “non-partisan candidate” is accepted How can it be "non-partisan" if it only represents the Unionist community?? |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jan 15, 2018 22:21:04 GMT
Might only be one Unionist candidate if UU proposal for a “non-partisan candidate” is accepted How can it be "non-partisan" if it only represents the Unionist community?? True, a man in an Orange suit maybe, Nigel Lutton was the last one, Mid Ulster by-election, 2013 |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jan 15, 2018 22:33:51 GMT
Unless there are huge abstentions from Nationalist voters, this can't be a unionist gain. They now form well under a third of the electorate, have done so since 2001, and their numbers are continuing to decline slowly. Plan B, massive unionist vote for the SDLP, not unknown |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 15, 2018 22:34:30 GMT
Unless there are huge abstentions from Nationalist voters, this can't be a unionist gain. They now form well under a third of the electorate, have done so since 2001, and their numbers are continuing to decline slowly. Plan B, massive unionist vote for the SDLP, not unknown It's practically unknown in Co Tyrone. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jan 15, 2018 22:46:00 GMT
Plan B, massive unionist vote for the SDLP, not unknown It's practically unknown in Co Tyrone. True, more of a Belfast thing |
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