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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2012 9:55:20 GMT
By-elections can be won from way back, but you need an organisation to do that, and Labour doesn't have that in the same way the Lib Dems do. Many of the seats you list could certainly be taken at a by-election - I'd expect us to also win most of your first group at a general election if we're going to win.
The 1990s are not a good barometer here, because the government was so unpopular then. We're not at that stage yet, and therefore seats like Bury St Edmunds are several bridges too far. Yes, we wouldn't be at 0% in the sticks, but 20% would be a struggle and those areas turn out at a greater rate than the wards we ought to win.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2012 10:24:18 GMT
The LDs have an ability to win massive transfers of votes in by-elections which neither Labour or the Conservatives do, hence you can get these kind of swings in in Newbury and CHristchurch or further back (and from the other side) Bermondsey. Conservative and Labour battlegrounds just don't produce these kinds of swings, notwithstanding some pretty huge swings in the 90s like Dudley West and in the lates 70s and 60s the other way. I think even these are not close to the kind of Bermondsey/Christchurch swings and as EAL says we aren't even close to that kind of level of government unpopularity
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Post by erlend on Aug 28, 2012 10:57:25 GMT
I was careful to refer to historic Labour byelection gains. Mid Staffs for example was followed by a Tory GE win both locally and nationally. If we accept the possibility that YouGov has some basis in fact that would make a number of seats I mentioned winnable. I deliberately use Mid Staffs as that shows that a byelection swing does not predict a GE victory, despite loving Peter Snow Graphics.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 28, 2012 11:49:12 GMT
There are, very possibly, a few places where in the environment of a byelection UKIP could take a huge chunk out of the Tory vote, perhaps enabling Labour to "come through the middle" on a relatively low share. Dorset South 1962 redux?  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2012 12:01:21 GMT
Yes, somewhere like Boston & Skegness
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2012 12:10:39 GMT
If you want to indulge in some speculation, there is the fact that Rehman Chishti hasn't done anything in Parliament at all (ie speak, put down question, vote) from 22 May until the recess. never heard of him before and on checking found out he stood for Labour in 2005. Either he has had a massive conversion to right wing toryism or maybe he is keeping quiet as can not vote for Tory, nor defect ? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 28, 2012 12:22:13 GMT
Yes, somewhere like Boston & Skegness That would certainly be interesting - i could certainly imagine UKIP getting up towards maybe even 25% there, but then again a large part of that extra 15% might come from the LDs and BNP vote from 2010, so they still might not do enough damage to the Tories to let Labour through the middle. But then again, who knows... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 28, 2012 13:17:32 GMT
If you want to indulge in some speculation, there is the fact that Rehman Chishti hasn't done anything in Parliament at all (ie speak, put down question, vote) from 22 May until the recess. never heard of him before and on checking found out he stood for Labour in 2005. Story of his defection here. Note he defected while Tony Blair was still leader, which removes one simple explanation for the move. He's never voted against the Conservative whip, and his speeches seem to indicate he is quite keen on public spending to help regenerate his constituency. I can find no enthusiastic cheering of Osbornism in his public statements. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2012 14:24:14 GMT
Yes, somewhere like Boston & Skegness That would certainly be interesting - i could certainly imagine UKIP getting up towards maybe even 25% there, but then again a large part of that extra 15% might come from the LDs and BNP vote from 2010, so they still might not do enough damage to the Tories to let Labour through the middle. But then again, who knows... I'd imagine it's the sort of area where Labour enjoys much more support now than it did in 2011. Even so, given how unimpressive our results there were last year, it's the sort of place where we'd be dreading a by-election, because if it began to go wrong then you could end up with UKIP taking second, and that'd be much more humiliating for us than it was for the Tories in Barnsley. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2012 15:22:42 GMT
never heard of him before and on checking found out he stood for Labour in 2005. Story of his defection here. Note he defected while Tony Blair was still leader, which removes one simple explanation for the move. He's never voted against the Conservative whip, and his speeches seem to indicate he is quite keen on public spending to help regenerate his constituency. I can find no enthusiastic cheering of Osbornism in his public statements. his statement on the BBC actually does not reference a policy decision, I would say he must be very uncomfortable on the same benches as say Adrian Burley. If you are looking for a defector from the Tories on his record would you not think he is a possible candidate ? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2012 15:37:44 GMT
Story of his defection here. Note he defected while Tony Blair was still leader, which removes one simple explanation for the move. He's never voted against the Conservative whip, and his speeches seem to indicate he is quite keen on public spending to help regenerate his constituency. I can find no enthusiastic cheering of Osbornism in his public statements. his statement on the BBC actually does not reference a policy decision, I would say he must be very uncomfortable on the same benches as say Adrian Burley. If you are looking for a defector from the Tories on his record would you not think he is a possible candidate ? I think the likes of Rehman Chisti are only concerned that their arse is sitting on the government benches rather than worrying about which party that may happen to be. No doubt if/when he comes to the conclusion that he has a better chance of holding his seat as a Labour candidate, he will make the seamless journey back to that party |
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Post by Philip Davies on Aug 28, 2012 18:10:21 GMT
Is the Corby constituency unchanged since it was created in the Third Periodic Review. Or were there some minor changes in the last review due to the Higham Ferrers wards changing perhaps?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2012 18:19:45 GMT
Completely unchanged
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Post by Philip Davies on Aug 28, 2012 18:43:03 GMT
I wasn't sure if the Chelveston parish was in the old Higham ward or not. I guess it must've been.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2012 11:37:02 GMT
Would Andrew Strauss as Tory candidate make a difference in an area he has no connection with ?
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 29, 2012 12:12:53 GMT
Has he given any indication he is interested in going into politics?? He might just be aware of Ted Dexter's not entirely successful punt as a Tory election hopeful |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2012 12:18:01 GMT
Has he given any indication he is interested in going into politics?? He might just be aware of Ted Dexter's not entirely successful punt as a Tory election hopeful guido reports he has rasied 25K at a Tory fundraiser so he is interested in politics. I think it would be a disaster for him to be parachuted into a seat he has no connections with against a Labour guy who has roots and been working the patch for years. Guess though not many aspiring decent candidates really want this one though as a battle. |
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Post by Philip Davies on Aug 29, 2012 13:09:18 GMT
How the result in Corby has compared to the UK result at each general election since the seat was created. Election UK maj % Corby Maj % Index
1983 14.86 6.48 -8.38
1987 11.39 3.43 -7.96
1992 7.54 0.60 -6.94
1997 -12.55 -21.98 -9.43
2001 -9.00 -12.07 -3.07
2005 -2.83 -3.13 -0.30
2010 7.20 3.60 -3.60 Index shows how much more Conservative (+) or Labour (-) the seat is compared to the UK as a whole. In Corby's case it has always been more Labour, but less so in the three elections of the 21st century than the four before it. |
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Post by Philip Davies on Aug 29, 2012 13:34:15 GMT
I agree Trident. The electorate has grown from 63k in 1983 to 78k in 2010, most of that growth will surely be outside the core of Corby. Another factor could be a larger drop in turnout in Corby itself compared to the rest of the seat.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 29, 2012 14:51:18 GMT
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Louise Daphne Mensch to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
{http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/press_74_12.htm)
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