nick10
Forum Regular
[k4r]
Posts: 296 
|
Post by nick10 on Aug 26, 2012 20:16:14 GMT
According to Twitter discussions between her and Chris Bryant, she has submitted her resignation but is waiting for the Chancellor to appoint her to the Manor of Northstead. So it is out of her hands now.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2012 14:26:34 GMT
cheers nick, the sooner the better eh ?? Of course if I was Labour I would want a byelection ASAP , say Osborne actually moved tomorrow, when is the by election to be, November is too late from a labour POV
|
|
|
|
Post by erlend on Aug 27, 2012 15:08:36 GMT
It must be moved in Parliament as it is a 'resignation'
Parliament come s back next week so the writ could be moved then. Then polling day would be between 15 and nineteen days later. So three weeks on the The Thursday so Thursday 27th. My assumption is that it will be a week later if it is going soon. That is on the Thursday of Labour Conference. And before you feel too outraged by that I remember Labour moving Wigan and Hamilton South for the week earlier in the political timetable. Not because they cared about Lib Dem Conference we were not going to win Wigan but because that was the Day SNP conference started and they were frit of the Nats..
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 27, 2012 15:17:04 GMT
It isn't *that* unreasonable not to want a by-election you are defending held just after the main gathering of your rivals. IMO, anyway.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2012 16:31:36 GMT
It must be moved in Parliament as it is a 'resignation' Parliament come s back next week so the writ could be moved then. Then polling day would be between 15 and nineteen days later. So three weeks on the The Thursday so Thursday 27th. My assumption is that it will be a week later if it is going soon. That is on the Thursday of Labour Conference. And before you feel too outraged by that I remember Labour moving Wigan and Hamilton South for the week earlier in the political timetable. Not because they cared about Lib Dem Conference we were not going to win Wigan but because that was the Day SNP conference started and they were frit of the Nats.. to be honest I would be delighted if it fell in our conference. I am sure as Ed stands up for the leader speech the polls will be showing a comfortable Labour win, then to seal it at the end of the conference with maybe a bigger victory will be great in PR terms. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 27, 2012 17:21:15 GMT
I'm assuming the Tories are effectively conceding, as there's seemingly been no progress on choosing a by-election candidate. That being the case, they really won't want it around Labour conference, for exactly the reasons Ian's laid out.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2012 18:43:22 GMT
there is no question EAL that this is the very last thing Cameron needed from his own party. Because if we do win and big as one polls suggested with over 50% the pressure he will be under will be large.
|
|
|
|
Post by erlend on Aug 27, 2012 20:11:29 GMT
I think the pressure would be far worse if you won a seat they held before 2010 which of course on current polls you probably would. Winning this will rapidly become a footnote.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2012 20:14:44 GMT
I think the pressure would be far worse if you won a seat they held before 2010 which of course on current polls you probably would. Winning this will rapidly become a footnote. thats possible but is there any possible seat out there that will see this, don;t think so. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 27, 2012 20:28:53 GMT
There are any number of seats which the Conservatives held before 2010 which are winnable for Labour
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2012 20:51:27 GMT
you have to have a vacancy first
|
|
|
|
Post by erlend on Aug 27, 2012 21:54:25 GMT
There are any number of seats which the Conservatives held before 2010 which are winnable for Labour I quite agree, just saying that they would be rather more significant than a shoo in for Corby |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 27, 2012 22:02:45 GMT
I'm agreeing with you - I was responding to ian and his rather bizarre suggestion that no constituency fitted the criteria you described
|
|
|
|
Post by kvasir on Aug 27, 2012 23:02:30 GMT
I'm agreeing with you - I was responding to ian and his rather bizarre suggestion that no constituency fitted the criteria you described What Ian was saying was none of the seats look prime targets for by-elections at the moment. Conservative seats won during the 2005-2010 Parliament probably offer the best chance to see. Which of these would you suggest: Bexleyheath and Crayford Braintree Clwyd West Crewe and Nantwich Croydon Central Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Enfield Southgate Forest of Dean Gravesham Hammersmith and Fulham Harwich Hemel Hempstead Hornchurch Ilford North Kettering Lancaster and Wyre Monmouth North East Milton Keynes Northampton South Norwich North Peterborough Preseli Pembrokeshire Putney Reading East Rugby and Kenilworth Scarborough and Whitby Shipley Shrewsbury and Atcham St Albans Wantage Wellingborough Welwyn Hatfield Wimbledon Wrekin, The |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 27, 2012 23:47:04 GMT
If you want to indulge in some speculation, there is the fact that Rehman Chishti hasn't done anything in Parliament at all (ie speak, put down question, vote) from 22 May until the recess.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tangent on Aug 27, 2012 23:52:59 GMT
If you want to indulge in some speculation, there is the fact that Rehman Chishti hasn't done anything in Parliament at all (ie speak, put down question, vote) from 22 May until the recess. Although he has been active locally. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2012 0:03:45 GMT
I'm agreeing with you - I was responding to ian and his rather bizarre suggestion that no constituency fitted the criteria you described What Ian was saying was none of the seats look prime targets for by-elections at the moment. Conservative seats won during the 2005-2010 Parliament probably offer the best chance to see. Which of these would you suggest: Bexleyheath and Crayford Braintree Clwyd West
Crewe and Nantwich
Croydon Central
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Enfield Southgate
Forest of Dean
Gravesham Hammersmith and Fulham Harwich Hemel Hempstead Hornchurch Ilford North
Kettering
Lancaster and Wyre Fleetwood
Monmouth
North East Milton Keynes
Northampton South
Norwich North
Peterborough
Preseli Pembrokeshire Putney Reading East Rugby and Kenilworth Scarborough and Whitby Shipley Shrewsbury and Atcham St Albans Wantage Wellingborough Welwyn Hatfield Wimbledon Wrekin, The Any number of these could be gained by Labour at a by-election. As to the likelihood of there being a by-election, well predicting that is a mugs game, but obviously people die, people resign etc |
|
|
|
Post by erlend on Aug 28, 2012 7:33:35 GMT
Predicting them individually is as you say a mugs' game. However there is a likelihood that one of them or even from a deeper list will come up in the next 2.5 years.
For simplicity's sake I will suggest seats held before 2010 by the Tories where Labour won in 97 and are still second. There are seats off that list such as NW Norfolk that I would say are probably winnable from 3rd.
I predict that unless there is a complete dearth of byelections that Labour should win at least one of these.
I think back to the days of Wirral South and byelections being won that would by no means have been on an equally deep list. Mid Staffs also.
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2012 9:09:11 GMT
For simplicity's sake I will suggest seats held before 2010 by the Tories where Labour won in 97 and are still second. There are seats off that list such as NW Norfolk that I would say are probably winnable from 3rd. Deeply doubtful. There's really very little Labour strength in that seat outside King's Lynn and the town isn't big enough to swing it. Given that we lost it in 2001 and that the area's trending away from us long term, I think that's a bad example. |
|
|
|
Post by erlend on Aug 28, 2012 9:43:46 GMT
Re EAL's cautiousness,
I think a bye you have enough vote to win it. You would not be on 0% in the sticks. To throw other long shots that are byelectionable, Peterborough, Dartford, Monmouth, Croydon Central (JL may have a view), Forest of Dean from a selection of airts.
There are even seats you never won that I think you would win in a bye. Bury St Edmunds, Basingstoke and Lichfield would fit the bill.
My point is that byelections are different and can be won from way back. A challenger can win on a bandwagon of give the government a message. On My side I remember Newbury won by 22047 (ingrained on my memory I was at the declaration) and Christchurch which was the only Tory seat in our Western Counties region that my people would rather not have had an election but we still won by 16K+.
|
|
