Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2012 17:12:52 GMT
one large bet I would guess ..... |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 17, 2012 19:55:26 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2012 20:05:37 GMT
I'll be quite surprised and very disappointed if they don't
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 17, 2012 20:38:35 GMT
I'll be quite surprised and very disappointed if they don't One thing against them is the lack of any local organisation in the constituency, as Richard has pointed out. Although UKIP is a national brand now. To be honest I don't think that will be a problem. Obviously it would be ideal if we had an active local branch who had achieved good results in council elections but given our modus operandi in such by elections I don't think it will matter. Clearly if we were talking about winning then the lack of prior activity would be a major problem but when you are talking of us needing to get 10% or so for third place it won't make much difference. Our best ever by election result was Barnsley Central, another seat with almost zero organisation. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 17, 2012 20:53:00 GMT
One thing against them is the lack of any local organisation in the constituency, as Richard has pointed out. Although UKIP is a national brand now. To be honest I don't think that will be a problem. Obviously it would be ideal if we had an active local branch who had achieved good results in council elections but given our modus operandi in such by elections I don't think it will matter. Clearly if we were talking about winning then the lack of prior activity would be a major problem but when you are talking of us needing to get 10% or so for third place it won't make much difference. Our best ever by election result was Barnsley Central, another seat with almost zero organisation. Tim Montgomerie of ConHome has said that anything less than 10% would be disappointing for UKIP. Sounds like expectation management.  |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Aug 20, 2012 0:44:18 GMT
It looks like Toby Jug will be the OMRLP candidate in Corby.
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Post by anthony on Aug 20, 2012 8:02:51 GMT
"Among other campaigns she was involved in fighting the use of child labour in the garment industry. Margot says she got involved in politics in 2009 after becoming frustrated by what she perceived as the way growth was being hampered by a 'raft of anti-business regulation from Brussels', and the way in which 'people’s lives were being increasingly undermined by the government’s need to micro-manage every aspect'." |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 20, 2012 9:52:25 GMT
So presumably she would be against anti business regulations that hamper the ability of firms do do well by employing child labour
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Post by stepney on Aug 20, 2012 10:16:13 GMT
So presumably she would be against anti business regulations that hamper the ability of firms do do well by employing child labour Naturally, because there are no shades of grey in this world, only black and white.  |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 20, 2012 10:46:19 GMT
So presumably she would be against anti business regulations that hamper the ability of firms do do well by employing child labour Naturally, because there are no shades of grey in this world, only black and white. I did have my tongue ever so slightly in the general cheek area. Having said that appealing to shades of grey in support of UKIP has a little irony don't you think? |
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 20, 2012 11:51:06 GMT
Naturally, because there are no shades of grey in this world, only black and white. I did have my tongue ever so slightly in the general cheek area. Having said that appealing to shades of grey in support of UKIP has a little irony don't you think? Given Louise Mensch's literary exploits, it's rather fitting that this thread has turned into a debate about shades of grey. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2012 11:53:29 GMT
one large bet I would guess ..... I wouldn't be entirely surprised if UKIP pushed the LibDems into fourth place. I agree, but that is a different matter to bookies odds on winning the election.. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 20, 2012 12:37:41 GMT
I did note that UKIP were concerned about us being tied up in red tape
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Post by anthony on Aug 20, 2012 13:15:17 GMT
So presumably she would be against anti business regulations that hamper the ability of firms do do well by employing child labour Yes, my thought, but also with tongue in cheek  |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 20, 2012 15:22:06 GMT
Given Louise Mensch's literary exploits, it's rather fitting that this thread has turned into a debate about shades of grey. Post of the month. |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
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Post by piperdave on Aug 21, 2012 20:36:16 GMT
While not a Westminster politician, Ian Welsh resigned as the Labour MSP for Ayr after only seven months in the role (6th May 1999 to 21st December 1999). He won the constituency by only 25 votes, making it the most marginal in the country, and the Tories won the subsequent by-election. The accepted wisdom is that he resigned as he didn't fancy the life of a backbencher after being passed over for a ministerial position. IIRC, the official reason was ill health within the family. Ayr aside, the Scottish Parliament has had a couple of regional members resign within their first term, obviously no threat to party advantage in the chamber due to the party list system. They were: - Nick Johnstone (Cons: Mid & Fife) on health grounds in 2001, and
- Stefan Tymkywycz (SNP: Lothians) resigned within four months as he had also been elected an Edinburgh City Councillor on the same day and chose to only do the one job.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2012 12:36:15 GMT
I'm hearing that Labour door-knockers are making much of the fact that Louise Mensch is still receiving her Parliamentary salary whilst refusing to accept any new casework. This is a shambles that seems to get ever worse for the Tories. Someone needs to get a grip of this at CCHQ and insist that the whole sorry saga is brought to an end quickly. This means that the writ for the by-election should be moved at the earliest opportunity so that polling day is held in September.
I don't think that the setting of the date makes much difference to the overall outcome, but once the by-election is over it's over and by the end of the Party conference season it will be old news and its impact faded. If we can't win it, at least let's try to minimise its impact.
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Post by stepney on Aug 26, 2012 13:19:48 GMT
I'm hearing that Labour door-knockers are making much of the fact that Louise Mensch is still receiving her Parliamentary salary whilst refusing to accept any new casework. This is a shambles that seems to get ever worse for the Tories. Someone needs to get a grip of this at CCHQ and insist that the whole sorry saga is brought to an end quickly. This means that the writ for the by-election should be moved at the earliest opportunity so that polling day is held in September. I don't think that the setting of the date makes much difference to the overall outcome, but once the by-election is over it's over and by the end of the Party conference season it will be old news and its impact faded. If we can't win it, at least let's try to minimise its impact. Easier to combine polls with the Police Commissioner elections. The whole thrust of Westminster politicians over the last 20 years or so has, perhaps regrettably, been to combine polls, and doing this saves public money. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 26, 2012 14:54:51 GMT
I'm hearing that Labour door-knockers are making much of the fact that Louise Mensch is still receiving her Parliamentary salary whilst refusing to accept any new casework. This is a shambles that seems to get ever worse for the Tories. Someone needs to get a grip of this at CCHQ and insist that the whole sorry saga is brought to an end quickly. This means that the writ for the by-election should be moved at the earliest opportunity so that polling day is held in September. I don't think that the setting of the date makes much difference to the overall outcome, but once the by-election is over it's over and by the end of the Party conference season it will be old news and its impact faded. If we can't win it, at least let's try to minimise its impact. Bugger all CCHQ can do about it. The writ can't be moved until Mensch "resigns". Not that I have any sympathy for your party. You shouldn't have selected the silly cow in the first place. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2012 20:07:40 GMT
I know this has been said before but can she not resign now as an MP and stop public money being wasted ?
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