Corby by election

[AdminSTB]

Aug 6, 2012 10:04:17 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Aug 6, 2012 10:00:56 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

A large proportion of the population of Corby are Scottish or of Scottish descent (large numbers moved from Strathclyde in the 30s to work int he Steel industry and more subsequently). Corby borough had something like 18% Scottish born according to 2001 census. Arthur was joking, but there may actually be something in the fact that labour holding up somewhat better here than other neighbouring seats had to do with the Scottish vote remaining better for Labour as in other areas (such as Scotland)

I was only part-joking. If 18% are actually Scottish-born, how many are of Scottish background?
I think Corby has the largest Rangers supporters' club outside Scotland and NI.

It actually has the largest Rangers Supporters' Club of anywhere (Glasgow as a city is obviously larger but clubs there are broken down to a far more local level).

I also had a friend at University who was born and raised in Corby, who had a more Scottish accent than most of the Scots on my course...

[andrea]

Andy Sawford was selected as the labour candidate last year. I suppose he will remain in place for the by-election.
iwc2.labouronline.org/172037/andy-sawford-for-corby--east-northants

He is the son of the 97-05 MP for Kettering.

[Deleted]

The SNP did consider putting up a candidate in Corby at one time as some sort of publicity stunt. ;D

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 6, 2012 10:12:58 GMT Andrew_S said:

A question I've never been able to find the answer to is whether or not people in Corby still speak with a Scottish accent. Maybe I'll finally find out now with the by-election coming up.

When I first went there in the late 80s I found that a large number did indeed speak with Socttish accents. I was also told by a work colleague who grew up in another part of Northants that when his school football team played teams from Corby that they spoke with Scottish accents too - even those born in Corby. It is a very strange place - a proper ethnic enclave

[Andrew_S]

I wonder if Nigel Farage might be tempted to stand? It's possible a strong UKIP effort could take a serious bite out of the Tory vote as Pete alluded to in another place.

[Deleted]

Corby that they spoke with Scottish accents too - even those born in Corby.
My experience does point to this, I was drinking with guys who I took to be West coast Scots and the were Corby born. Oh and the reason the SNP did not stand in Corby it seems was that it would have reduced the number of PPB's under the then rules.

[Deleted]

Aug 6, 2012 11:23:54 GMT Andrew_S said:

I wonder if Nigel Farage might be tempted to stand? It's possible a strong UKIP effort could take a serious bite out of the Tory vote as Pete alluded to in another place.

this really could place a serious squeeze on the tories

Conservative Louise Mensch 22,886 42.2 +2.3
Labour Phil Hope 20,935 38.6 -4.5
Liberal Democrat Portia Wilson 7,834 14.5 +1.7
BNP Roy Davies 2,525 4.7 N/A
Majority 1,951 3.6
Turnout 54,180 69.2 +3.6

If you think about the LD votes there for Labour to target and Ukip agaionst the Tory then clear that we see this as a must win by election

[Tony Otim]

Aug 6, 2012 11:30:24 GMT @ianrobo said:

Aug 6, 2012 11:23:54 GMT Andrew_S said:

I wonder if Nigel Farage might be tempted to stand? It's possible a strong UKIP effort could take a serious bite out of the Tory vote as Pete alluded to in another place.

this really could place a serious squeeze on the tories

Conservative Louise Mensch 22,886 42.2 +2.3
Labour Phil Hope 20,935 38.6 -4.5
Liberal Democrat Portia Wilson 7,834 14.5 +1.7
BNP Roy Davies 2,525 4.7 N/A
Majority 1,951 3.6
Turnout 54,180 69.2 +3.6

If you think about the LD votes there for Labour to target and Ukip agaionst the Tory then clear that we see this as a must win by election

Although it has to be said that the absence of a UKIP candidate in 2010 didn't seem to do much to help the Tories.

[Deleted]

Aug 6, 2012 11:37:00 GMT @trident said:

Is there any particular reason why UKIP didn't bother to stand here in 2010? Or could they just not find a candidate?

well she is quite anti EU so no surprise they did not bother

review from Lewis BAston

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/lewis-baston/louise-mensch-corby-_b_1746366.html

[Pete Whitehead]

The local election results in 2011 surprisingly had the Conservatives in the lead


Con 14218 41.8%
Lab 13847 40.7%
LD 3060 9.0%
Ind 2364 6.9%
BNP 375 1.1%
UKIP 189 0.6%

Broken down into the two parts:

Corby

Lab 10305 56.0%
Con 5082 27.6%
LD 2435 13.2%
BNP 375 2.0%
UKIP 189 1.0%

East Northamptonshire *

Con 9136 58.3%
Lab 3542 22.6%
Ind 2364 15.1%
LD 625 4.0%

This seat really is a battle of turnouts between the two halves

* Labour had no candidates in four of the contested wards. If they ahd they may have just got enough votes to take them over the top. On the other hand there were two wards which returned Conservatives unnopposed (including Barnwell where a recent by-election confirmed the Tory dominance)

[The Bishop]

Aug 6, 2012 11:23:54 GMT Andrew_S said:

I wonder if Nigel Farage might be tempted to stand? It's possible a strong UKIP effort could take a serious bite out of the Tory vote as Pete alluded to in another place.

I suspect that Farage's ego is so big these days, that he would only stand in a by-election he thought he could actually win

Those figures posted by Pete are not that surprising, tbh. The "better than expected" Tory overall showing in 2011 was largely built on a big vote and turnout in their heartland areas. Things are rather different now.......

Plus the Corby DC by-election last month and (FWIW) also the Raunds TC vacancy last week showed significant pro-Labour swings from last year.

[timrollpickering]

Aug 6, 2012 11:18:58 GMT @jimboo said:

The SNP did consider putting up a candidate in Corby at one time as some sort of publicity stunt. ;D

Was that the BBC told that them if they did they would be considered a UK wide party, and thus get rather fewer PEBs?

Aug 6, 2012 11:23:54 GMT Andrew_S said:

I wonder if Nigel Farage might be tempted to stand? It's possible a strong UKIP effort could take a serious bite out of the Tory vote as Pete alluded to in another place.

Surely if UKIP are serious they would copy the Green strategy of finding seats with a strong core demographic and target them repeatedly, rather than having the leader running all over the place and hoping their presence will transform the party chances overnight?

[john07]

Aug 6, 2012 12:05:48 GMT timrollpickering said:

Aug 6, 2012 11:18:58 GMT @jimboo said:

The SNP did consider putting up a candidate in Corby at one time as some sort of publicity stunt. ;D

Was that the BBC told that them if they did they would be considered a UK wide party, and thus get rather fewer PEBs?

The SNP also considered putting up a candidate in Berwick upon Tweed (occupied Berwick?) in the 1973 by-election but thought better of it. Maybe for the same reasons?

[Richard Allen]

Aug 6, 2012 11:37:00 GMT @trident said:

Is there any particular reason why UKIP didn't bother to stand here in 2010? Or could they just not find a candidate?

Basically our Corby branch collapsed in 2009 when Ian Gillman who had built the branch from scratch and stood in the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections left the party and joined the ill fated UK First Party (they stood in East Mids, Eastern and South East at the 2009 Euros) due to alleged financial corruption within the party. Gillman is widely regarded as a good guy but an absolute crushing bore. He continues to make the same allegations of financial impropriety by the party over and over again but the authorities seem somewhat unimpressed by his evidence.

We did have a candidate lined up in 2010 but he pulled out just before the election saying he didn't have the funds. I found this very strange because in many areas the regional or central party paid the deposits for those candidates who could not pay it themselves. A branch does still exist on paper but it seems to be almost completely inactive. In 2011 we had one local election candidate in Corby and none in East Northants.

[Deleted]

Sadly, I do not doubt that this will be a Labour gain. Whether it would stay red at the next GE I am far from certain of that.

For any marginal seat for any party, it should be expected that not only should a full term be served, but that going for a second term is a key part of the efforts of the first team.

I am very disappointed in Louise Mensch.

[Richard Allen]

Aug 6, 2012 13:21:38 GMT @thesituation said:

Sadly, I do not doubt that this will be a Labour gain. Whether it would stay red at the next GE I am far from certain of that.

For any marginal seat for any party, it should be expected that not only should a full term be served, but that going for a second term is a key part of the efforts of the first team.

I am very disappointed in Louise Mensch.

Your disappointment is misplaced. It should be directed at your incompetent leadership who wanted such an unsuitable person as an MP.

[Sibboleth]

Needless to say the circumstances won't be helpful for the Tory successor candidate.

[The Bishop]

The eulogies being performed for Mensch by a couple of Grauniad scribblers are, if nothing else, amusing. At least six seperate pieces about her on the website - as of now

[Deleted]

Aug 6, 2012 13:25:21 GMT Richard Allen said:

Aug 6, 2012 13:21:38 GMT @thesituation said:

Sadly, I do not doubt that this will be a Labour gain. Whether it would stay red at the next GE I am far from certain of that.

For any marginal seat for any party, it should be expected that not only should a full term be served, but that going for a second term is a key part of the efforts of the first team.

I am very disappointed in Louise Mensch.

Your disappointment is misplaced. It should be directed at your incompetent leadership who wanted such an unsuitable person as an MP.

I think that's a bit unfair. The party leadership acted in good faith. It can not be held responsible for every action of those under it.

Unlike the nutter Dorries, Mensch has done nothing as an MP to annoy me, that I have been aware of. It's her quitting that I'm annoyed at.

[Rose Tinted Lane]

Surely setting up Twitter rip-off vanity project 'Menschn' is enough to earn anyone's ire?