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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 16, 2012 16:15:19 GMT
What the Corby BE shows is what we already knew: that Labour can win the next general election purely on a swing from LD to Lab without needing any Conservative votes at all. There was a swing of 9.5% from LD to Lab and even if the Tory vote had remained at 42% Labour still would have won the seat, and the same thing is true at the next general election. Lab 39%, Con 37%, LD 14% would probably give Labour a small overall majority.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2012 16:18:02 GMT
Of course the LD's believe a lot will return, I do not believe so so I think for a GE our lowest level is going to be 36%.
I see Dan Hodges is making the point of few Tory switchers but in marginals you do not need a lot of tories to either not vote, vote UKIP or switch to Labour to give us those seats where we pick up numbers of LD ex voters.
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Post by Richard Gadsden on Nov 16, 2012 16:23:17 GMT
Of course the LD's believe a lot will return, I do not believe so so I think for a GE our lowest level is going to be 36%. I see Dan Hodges is making the point of few Tory switchers but in marginals you do not need a lot of tories to either not vote, vote UKIP or switch to Labour to give us those seats where we pick up numbers of LD ex voters. I would not be surprised in Con-Lab seats (where the LD local campaign is likely to be non-existent) to see a large fraction of those who voted LD in 2010 go to Labour. I suspect that the LD vote will hold up much better where there is a better local campaign, especially in seats that elected LD MPs in 2010 and in other seats where we were close. Over the 1997-2010 General Elections, the LD vote varied a lot more than the party's seat total. |
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Post by name2remember on Nov 16, 2012 16:29:12 GMT
I know they're not exactly rolling in cash, but calling for two recounts to save a deposit is just pathetic on every level. I perfectly understand why they did it. One recount to try to save their deposit...and a second one to save their blushes. Neither of which worked, of course, but they give me the opportunity to ask them: Which is better, to lose your deposit with your political integrity intact...or to lose your deposit attempting to excuse your lack of political backbone...do tell, I would like to know!  The PCC elections where they did dither decide to stand, the LibDems have registered some seriously negligible tallies. This in a low turn out, give some indication of their core vote...There should be some very twitchy LibDems today. The real sadness is that, as the self-proclaimed standard-bearers of Liberalism, they were unable to mount a significant political criticism of the whole idea of Police Commissioners and the democratic deficit involved in the election process. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2012 16:30:05 GMT
agree totally it now depends on what seats you will ditch campaigns ...
you will have put respurces into protecting those MP's you can. For example in two neighbouring MP's
Can the LD's fight for both Hemming and Burt ?
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leicester
Non-Aligned
Miss the excitement of running elections, like an ex footballer now watching from the stands
Posts: 82
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Post by leicester on Nov 16, 2012 16:31:05 GMT
Why does everyone assume UKIP votes are ex tory votes? Where did the 3% (60%+ of the BNP vote from the GE) of the lost BNP vote go?
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doktorb in absentia
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Post by doktorb in absentia on Nov 16, 2012 16:36:44 GMT
Why does everyone assume UKIP votes are ex tory votes? Where did the 3% (60%+ of the BNP vote from the GE) of the lost BNP vote go? The pub? |
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leicester
Non-Aligned
Miss the excitement of running elections, like an ex footballer now watching from the stands
Posts: 82
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Post by leicester on Nov 16, 2012 16:39:03 GMT
Is there any pubs left to go too?
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doktorb in absentia
Guest
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Post by doktorb in absentia on Nov 16, 2012 16:43:03 GMT
With the dwindling membership, I'm pretty sure a pub has enough space to host BNP voters ;D
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Post by keithn on Nov 16, 2012 16:45:02 GMT
Can all those who think £500 is not a lot of money, please donate £500 to Children in Need. Thank you.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 16, 2012 16:48:37 GMT
If you're not prepared to lose the deposit, you shouldn't stand. You shouldn't delay the declaration by an hour, because all you're doing is forcing the council to pay an extra hour's wages to the counting staff.
One recount is fine. Two is taking the piss.
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 16, 2012 16:54:55 GMT
An extra hour's wages? When I worked as counting staff it was paid as a flat rate.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 16, 2012 16:56:58 GMT
Fair enough - incorrect assumption on my part.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 16, 2012 17:02:42 GMT
If you're not prepared to lose the deposit, you shouldn't stand. You shouldn't delay the declaration by an hour, because all you're doing is forcing the council to pay an extra hour's wages to the counting staff. One recount is fine. Two is taking the piss. Isn't getting an accurate result the most important thing? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 16, 2012 17:09:09 GMT
Astonishing speech by the LD candidate in Corby, saying the Tories had had it easy compared to them.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 16, 2012 17:13:26 GMT
If you're not prepared to lose the deposit, you shouldn't stand. You shouldn't delay the declaration by an hour, because all you're doing is forcing the council to pay an extra hour's wages to the counting staff. One recount is fine. Two is taking the piss. Isn't getting an accurate result the most important thing? Accuracy concerning the winner is obviously all-important. Accuracy concerning exactly how many votes the fourth place candidate gets is perhaps less of a priority. Besides, if one recount doesn't change things substantially, what reason is there to believe a second recount would? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 16, 2012 21:56:55 GMT
Does anyone have any idea as to which parts of the constituency the kippers polled best in?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2012 10:51:34 GMT
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 17, 2012 23:20:07 GMT
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 17, 2012 23:34:54 GMT
You would think after the harm she has done the Conservative party the selfish cow would have the decency to keep her mouth shut. Not that I sympathise with them, they deserved everything they got for letting her stand in the first place. |
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