Local By- Elections, January 18th, 2018

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BOURNEMOUTH Throop and Muscliff

Wilson, Kieron Edward (Independent) 533
Allen, Hazel Elizabeth (Conservative Party) 511
Bassinder, Rob (Labour Party) 402
Lucas, Peter Jonathan (Independent) 117
Turner, Muriel (Liberal Democrats) 107
Bull, Jane Maria (Green Party) 33

[Andrew_S]

Jan 19, 2018 0:03:13 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

BOURNEMOUTH Throop and Muscliff

Wilson, Kieron Edward (Independent) 533
Allen, Hazel Elizabeth (Conservative Party) 511
Bassinder, Rob (Labour Party) 402
Lucas, Peter Jonathan (Independent) 117
Turner, Muriel (Liberal Democrats) 107
Bull, Jane Maria (Green Party) 33

Ind Wilson 31.3%
Con 30.0%
Lab 23.6%
Ind Lucas 6.9%
LD 6.3%
Green 1.9%

[greenhert]

Percentages in Throop & Muscliff:

Independent Wilson 31.3%
Conservative 30.0%
Labour 23.6%
Independent Lucas 6.9%
Liberal Democrat 6.3%
Green 1.9%

[Deleted]

Interesting that the Tories have held Hulton every year from 2002 until 2014 when UKIP won and since been held by Labour now a Tory seat again

[timmullen1]

Jan 19, 2018 0:22:23 GMT @barnabymarder said:

I have had left-wing colleagues within the Bolton Labour Party tell me that the council is very unpopular, with detailed reasons why, and that the party might struggle to retain control. I was a little sceptical, but the Tory gain tonight suggests they could well be right.

Andrew’s Previews seems to give a slightly different slant, but alludes to a local redevelopment scheme (I think in the Ward itself) that’s deeply unpopular in the immediate area and is awaiting a decision from Bolton’s planning authorities. Maybe a “shot across the bows” warning that may persuade the wider council to reject the application?

[Ben Walker]

Figs:

Con: 1,455
Lab: 1,179
UKIP: 190
LDem: 67
Grn: 52

[Andrew_S]

Jan 19, 2018 0:29:30 GMT Ben Walker said:

Figs:

Con: 1,455
Lab: 1,179
UKIP: 190
LDem: 67
Grn: 52

Con 49.4%
Lab 40.1%
UKIP 6.5%
LD 2.3%
Green 1.8%

Changes since 2016:

Con +16.7%
Lab +3.1%
UKIP -18.0%
LD -0.2%
Green -1.5%

[Deleted]

So Labour did increase their vote but were no match for the UKIP collapse which all but went to the Tories

[ideal4radio]

Jan 19, 2018 0:26:28 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jan 19, 2018 0:22:23 GMT @barnabymarder said:

I have had left-wing colleagues within the Bolton Labour Party tell me that the council is very unpopular, with detailed reasons why, and that the party might struggle to retain control. I was a little sceptical, but the Tory gain tonight suggests they could well be right.

Andrew’s Previews seems to give a slightly different slant, but alludes to a local redevelopment scheme (I think in the Ward itself) that’s deeply unpopular in the immediate area and is awaiting a decision from Bolton’s planning authorities. Maybe a “shot across the bows” warning that may persuade the wider council to reject the application?

   I'm sorry to bring up what Basil Fawlty might have referred to as the " Bleeding obvious " , but do you two not consider that the fact that the Labour Candidate's family home was raided by the Metropolitan Police's anti-terrorist squad, as part of an investigation into money laundering connected to " one of Pakistan's more dubious political parties " may have had a slight influence on the result ??

[thetop]

Given that before UKIP's breakthrough the only time Labour was competitive was its high-water mark of 2012, the UKIP collapse was always going to make things difficult here, even before we factor in any local unpopularity.

[timmullen1]

Jan 19, 2018 0:44:43 GMT ideal4radio said:

Jan 19, 2018 0:26:28 GMT timmullen1 said:

Andrew’s Previews seems to give a slightly different slant, but alludes to a local redevelopment scheme (I think in the Ward itself) that’s deeply unpopular in the immediate area and is awaiting a decision from Bolton’s planning authorities. Maybe a “shot across the bows” warning that may persuade the wider council to reject the application?

   I'm sorry to bring up what Basil Fawlty might have referred to as the " Bleeding obvious " , but do you two not consider that the fact that the Labour Candidate's family home was raided by the Metropolitan Police's anti-terrorist squad, as part of an investigation into money laundering connected to " one of Pakistan's more dubious political parties " may have had a slight influence on the result ??

Indeed yes, but at this time of night, and less than 36 hours home from hospital, I’d completely forgotten that part of Andrew’s Preview....

[lbarnes]

Jan 19, 2018 0:37:33 GMT @priceofdawn said:

So Labour did increase their vote but were no match for the UKIP collapse which all but went to the Tories

Not necessarily. It could just as well be that Labour took the UKIP vote but lost more to the Tories. Or something else entirely.

[ideal4radio]

All best wishes health-wise Tim..... I think we're both on fairly safe ground in assuming that particular event did not help Labour's attempts to attract those voters who'd previously voted UKIP !!

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jan 19, 2018 0:22:23 GMT @barnabymarder said:

I have had left-wing colleagues within the Bolton Labour Party tell me that the council is very unpopular, with detailed reasons why, and that the party might struggle to retain control. I was a little sceptical, but the Tory gain tonight suggests they could well be right.

I'm guessing Asons Solicitors came up in this discussion.

[timmullen1]

Jan 19, 2018 0:55:57 GMT ideal4radio said:

All best wishes health-wise Tim..... I think we're both on fairly safe ground in assuming that particular event did not help Labour's attempts to attract those voters who'd previously voted UKIP !!

Thanks, and yes we are.

[thirdchill]

Jan 19, 2018 0:22:23 GMT @barnabymarder said:

I have had left-wing colleagues within the Bolton Labour Party tell me that the council is very unpopular, with detailed reasons why, and that the party might struggle to retain control. I was a little sceptical, but the Tory gain tonight suggests they could well be right.

Despite the unpopularity of the council i do not see them struggling to retain control at the present time.

Since Hulton is not a labour defence this time, they would have to lose 6 other wards they hold to lose control. And that is presuming they do not gain little Lever from UKIP.

Even if labour lost both the Horwich wards to the conservatives and Westhoughton South to the lib Dems, they are still in control. I do not see labour losing any other wards they hold.

[Deleted]

There is obviously voter churn. However, polling shows that more than half ukip voters went Tory and a fifth have gone to Lab

[linders]

The raid was three years ago, and nothing much seems to have come of it: www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/12976218.Bolton_businessman_investigated_by_counter_terror_officers_alongside_leader_of_Pakistani_political_party/

I’m not sure how much of an issue it was in the campaign. Certainly it was not raised by any of the mainstream parties.

[andrewteale]

Jan 19, 2018 0:37:33 GMT @priceofdawn said:

So Labour did increase their vote but were no match for the UKIP collapse which all but went to the Tories

Pretty much what I was expecting. It's fairly obvious from the ward's social makeup that this is a ward where UKIP hit the Conservatives much harder than Labour.

And yes, Bolton council is very unpopular but Labour are not in serious danger of losing control in May. The various council scandals are going to be on-topic for the forthcoming Farnworth by-election, for which I intend to leave no pile of dirt unturned.

[andrewteale]

Jan 19, 2018 8:59:19 GMT linders said:

The raid was three years ago, and nothing much seems to have come of it: www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/12976218.Bolton_businessman_investigated_by_counter_terror_officers_alongside_leader_of_Pakistani_political_party/

I’m not sure how much of an issue it was in the campaign. Certainly it was not raised by any of the mainstream parties.

It was raised by UKIP, which is why I picked up on it missing that the raid happened three years ago. Sorry, that shouldn't have gone in the preview. That will teach me to believe anything UKIP say.