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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jan 19, 2018 10:39:06 GMT
Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnall North & Hanslope
Conservative 1604
Labour 749
Lib Dem 672
Conservative hold
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 19, 2018 10:56:54 GMT
Bolton, Hulton - Conservative gain from Labour| Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Conservative | 1,455 | 49.4% | +16.7% | +18.4% | +19.3% | +4.9% | Labour | 1,179 | 40.1% | +3.0% | +6.4% | +10.2% | -2.5% | UKIP | 190 | 6.5% | -18.0% | -22.4% | -27.4% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 67 | 2.3% | -0.2% | -0.9% | +0.5% | +0.2% | Green | 52 | 1.8% | -1.5% | -1.4% | -2.5% | -9.1% | Total votes | 2,943 |
| 79% | 47% | 77% | 99% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 6¾% since 2016, 6% since 2015, not particularly meaningful 4½% since 2014 (UKIP won) and 3¾% since 2012 (no UKIP) Council now 35 Labour, 17 Conservative, 4 UKIP, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent, 2 Vacant Bournemouth, Throop & Muscliff - Independent hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Independent Wilson | 533 | 31.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 511 | 30.0% | +5.3% | +6.4% | +11.0% | +10.4% | Labour | 402 | 23.6% | +14.7% | +14.3% | +16.3% | +15.4% | Independent Lucas * | 117 | 6.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 107 | 6.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +2.6% | +2.1% | Green | 33 | 1.9% | -5.9% | -6.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Elected Independents ** |
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| -29.9% | -31.2% | -49.0% | -45.2% | Other Independents |
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| -15.6% | -14.7% | -16.5% | -18.6% | UKIP |
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| -13.0% | -13.0% | -4.4% | -4.3% | Total votes | 1,703 |
| 28% | 30% | 48% | 54% |
* a UKIP candidate in 2015 & 2011 ** Independent Rey in 2015, Independent Rey plus 2 others in 2011 Swing not meaningful Council now 51 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 Green Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope - Conservative hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Conservative | 1,604 | 53.0% | +5.2% | +3.1% | +15.3% | +17.0% | Labour | 749 | 24.8% | +4.0% | +9.5% | +11.7% | +12.6% | Liberal Democrat | 672 | 22.2% | +3.7% | +7.5% | +6.8% | +6.7% | UKIP |
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| -12.9% | -14.2% | -23.9% | -25.6% | Green |
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| -5.9% | -9.9% | -10.6% | Total votes | 3,025 |
| 90% | 43% | 66% | 71% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ ½% since 2016 and 1¾% / 2¼% since 2014 but Conservative to Labour 3¼% since 2015 - Liberal Democrat to Conservative ¾% since 2016 and 4¼% / 5¼% since 2014 but Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2¼% since 2015 Council now 22 Conservative, 22 Labour, 13 Liberal Democrat Rochford, Downhall & Rawreth - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2018 votes | 2018 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 794 | 77.0% | +16.6% | +19.4% | Conservative | 237 | 23.0% | +6.4% | +5.7% | Residents |
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| -15.2% | -16.5% | Labour |
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| -7.9% | -8.6% | Total votes | 1,031 |
| 56% | 61% |
Swing, if particularly meaningful, Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 5% / 6¾% since 2016
Council now 21 Conservative, 5 Residents, 4 Liberal Democrat, 4 UKIP, 3 Green, 1 Independent
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,979
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 19, 2018 11:05:01 GMT
I have had left-wing colleagues within the Bolton Labour Party tell me that the council is very unpopular, with detailed reasons why, and that the party might struggle to retain control. I was a little sceptical, but the Tory gain tonight suggests they could well be right. Labour still have 35 seats out of 60 in Bolton even after this result, so this May's polls would have to be notably bad (and probably well against the national trend) for that to happen. Last year's local elections showed that unpopular Tory councils were protected by the party's (then) national popularity, at least to an extent. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Jan 19, 2018 17:15:25 GMT
Well I was quite astonished at how well I did with virtually no campaigning. I obviously have a small but significant personal vote. And I am astonished at Labour's improvement here. At this rate, if there still is a Bournemouth Council, they should be set for quite a few seats next year.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 19, 2018 18:32:11 GMT
Well I was quite astonished at how well I did with virtually no campaigning. I obviously have a small but significant personal vote. And I am astonished at Labour's improvement here. At this rate, if there still is a Bournemouth Council, they should be set for quite a few seats next year. Congratulations. Labour did amazingly well at the general election in Bournemouth last year so I was expecting that to be replicated to a certain degree in this by-election although I still underestimated them slightly. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jan 19, 2018 19:31:23 GMT
Thank you. I am actually quite pleased to see Labour gaining ground. Democracy needs an opposition to function and 51 councillors out of 54 for any party is just absurd.
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froome
Green
Posts: 4,553
Member is Online
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Post by froome on Jan 21, 2018 16:10:06 GMT
Well I was quite astonished at how well I did with virtually no campaigning. I obviously have a small but significant personal vote. And I am astonished at Labour's improvement here. At this rate, if there still is a Bournemouth Council, they should be set for quite a few seats next year. There is a substantial slice of the population that prefer to vote Independent than support any party at local elections. I'm always amazed at the votes some Independents get without doing any campaigning, and with most of their voters having no idea what views they may have. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2018 19:48:43 GMT
Well I was quite astonished at how well I did with virtually no campaigning. I obviously have a small but significant personal vote. And I am astonished at Labour's improvement here. At this rate, if there still is a Bournemouth Council, they should be set for quite a few seats next year. There is a substantial slice of the population that prefer to vote Independent than support any party at local elections. I'm always amazed at the votes some Independents get without doing any campaigning, and with most of their voters having no idea what views they may have. I believe Peter was also the highest Independent on the ballot paper. Many years ago I came top of the poll in a local double by-election, beating my party colleague by 100 votes or so. For many years I thought my obvious charm and charisma was the reason but the much older and wiser me realises I was higher on the ballot paper! Meanwhile I would not read too much into the Labour performance in a seat like this where it looks as though very popular independents have been harnessing the ABT vote for years |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 21, 2018 19:52:15 GMT
Well I was quite astonished at how well I did with virtually no campaigning. I obviously have a small but significant personal vote. And I am astonished at Labour's improvement here. At this rate, if there still is a Bournemouth Council, they should be set for quite a few seats next year. There is a substantial slice of the population that prefer to vote Independent than support any party at local elections. I'm always amazed at the votes some Independents get without doing any campaigning, and with most of their voters having no idea what views they may have. This very much depends where you are but this was if course had a long history of preferring independents and indeed was somewhat surprisingly prepared to vote for Wilson in large numbers. I wonder whether Peter would have stood a real chance had he been able to commit himself to a full-on campaign. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jan 21, 2018 21:43:07 GMT
My opponent did have the advantage of the endorsement (publicised on his leaflets) of the long-serving and popular outgoing independent.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2018 22:42:16 GMT
Well I was quite astonished at how well I did with virtually no campaigning. I obviously have a small but significant personal vote. And I am astonished at Labour's improvement here. At this rate, if there still is a Bournemouth Council, they should be set for quite a few seats next year. Pity you didn’t campaign, split the Indy vote and let the Tory through. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jan 21, 2018 22:54:29 GMT
Yeah, because a 52 councillor administration with a 2 councillor opposition would just be fantastic for democracy.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 22, 2018 0:22:51 GMT
There is a substantial slice of the population that prefer to vote Independent than support any party at local elections. I'm always amazed at the votes some Independents get without doing any campaigning, and with most of their voters having no idea what views they may have. I believe Peter was also the highest Independent on the ballot paper. Many years ago I came top of the poll in a local double by-election, beating my party colleague by 100 votes or so. For many years I thought my obvious charm and charisma was the reason but the much older and wiser me realises I was higher on the ballot paper! Meanwhile I would not read too much into the Labour performance in a seat like this where it looks as though very popular independents have been harnessing the ABT vote for years When it comes to the Labour share, you might be mistaken, as Labour's candidate ran a strong campaign and the indications from local activity is promising for them come May. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 22, 2018 0:32:49 GMT
I believe Peter was also the highest Independent on the ballot paper. Many years ago I came top of the poll in a local double by-election, beating my party colleague by 100 votes or so. For many years I thought my obvious charm and charisma was the reason but the much older and wiser me realises I was higher on the ballot paper! Meanwhile I would not read too much into the Labour performance in a seat like this where it looks as though very popular independents have been harnessing the ABT vote for years When it comes to the Labour share, you might be mistaken, as Labour's candidate ran a strong campaign and the indications from local activity is promising for them come May. What's happening in May ? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 22, 2018 1:54:44 GMT
When it comes to the Labour share, you might be mistaken, as Labour's candidate ran a strong campaign and the indications from local activity is promising for them come May. What's happening in May ? I didn't say which May. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 22, 2018 10:40:24 GMT
I believe Peter was also the highest Independent on the ballot paper. Many years ago I came top of the poll in a local double by-election, beating my party colleague by 100 votes or so. For many years I thought my obvious charm and charisma was the reason but the much older and wiser me realises I was higher on the ballot paper! Meanwhile I would not read too much into the Labour performance in a seat like this where it looks as though very popular independents have been harnessing the ABT vote for years When it comes to the Labour share, you might be mistaken, as Labour's candidate ran a strong campaign and the indications from local activity is promising for them come May. Well, independents were down 7% since 2015, UKIP did not stand greens were down, and only 7% of the votes went to the newly standing Lib Dems. Those votes have to go somewhere, and the fact that Labour put in a strong campaign accounts for the fact you did about 7% better than opinion poll based par. All I am saying is that the dominance of Independents in this ward means that you should not read too much into it.. (any more than good lib dem performances in local by-elections mean anything much for any other election) |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 22, 2018 17:57:58 GMT
I believe Peter was also the highest Independent on the ballot paper. Many years ago I came top of the poll in a local double by-election, beating my party colleague by 100 votes or so. For many years I thought my obvious charm and charisma was the reason but the much older and wiser me realises I was higher on the ballot paper! Meanwhile I would not read too much into the Labour performance in a seat like this where it looks as though very popular independents have been harnessing the ABT vote for years if you used the surname 111 in an election, where would you be on the ballot paper? Just above 112? |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,787
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 22, 2018 18:17:02 GMT
if you used the surname 111 in an election, where would you be on the ballot paper? Just above 112? I'm sure I've read somewhere that you'd be listed just after Ondzzzzz and just before Oneaaaaa. |
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