maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Jan 16, 2018 11:37:34 GMT
Strange that the Tories won Hulton in 2012 (when Labour did very well in some Tory-inclined wards not far away) but not since. Should be a Labour hold, but far from elementary. It's likely that the UKIP vote will collapse as has happened elsewhere - where that goes will determine the outcome. Perhaps that could produce a Tory gain? Which constituency is this ward in? Bolton South East. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jan 16, 2018 15:46:34 GMT
That having been made clear, [expectation management] I find it necessary to point out that I am currently studying for an MSc and have found myself with three majors assignments to write over Christmas. As a result, my campaigning efforts have been pretty minimal and I'm not expecting a brilliant result. [/expectation management]. On the plus side, I'm attending a press conference organised by a local campaign group on Tuesday, so that could get me a few votes if it goes well. Yes good luck (but obviously not too good  ). I assume the Green candidate is the wife of our existing councillor. Thank you and the same to your side. I would certainly rather a Green than a 52nd Tory out of 54. And yes she is Simon Bull's wife (or so I here). |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 16, 2018 16:19:13 GMT
Yes good luck on behalf of all us prediction competitors who are grateful for the unexpected fortune of an insider voice from a candidate.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 22:54:51 GMT
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,626
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Post by ricmk on Jan 18, 2018 11:42:33 GMT
A few notes on Newport North and Hanslope which goes to the polls today. It's a real town vs country ward and it all goes back to the boundary review in 2014. This ward could not have been drawn better for the Tories or worse for us. We wanted a single Newport Pagnell ward which would have made more sense locally and helped us elsewhere. However it would have been 11% over average population so we didn't get it, and ended with a split of Newport, half in this ward. Newport Town was solid Lib Dem, the villages of Hanslope Park solid Tory. (For completeness there are 2 additions: Redhouse Park, a new city estate that ended up in Hanslope Park by accident which leans Labour, and Stoke Goldington, a village from the Sherington ward which went LD->Tory in 2011) It was hard to let a stronghold of Newport North go, but we figured that the villages would overpower the town in 2014. Obviously a low ebb for the Lib Dems and there were predictions that we would be all but wiped out. (See this thread vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1932/milton-keynes which was actually how I found this forum.....I had a good laugh reading it through much later.) With several better prospects, no way we could really fight this ward hard in the all out elections, and the Tories duly swept home. So this by-election marks the first time since the ward was created that all 3 parties have been able to work the ward properly. And it'll all be about town vs country turnout. The turnout is historically better in the villages - will they come out on in January? Can the Lib Dems convince former supporters in Newport Town that it's worth it this time? Much easier to work in the compact town than in the villages today. Can Labour throw a spanner in the works by fighting the ward for the first time - areas such as Redhouse Park have potential for them. Don't wait up for the answer - counting tomorrow morning. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 18, 2018 17:07:43 GMT
Are the others counting tonight?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 18, 2018 23:07:50 GMT
I think all the others are counting tonight.
Bolton, Hulton turnout 28.9%.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 18, 2018 23:10:17 GMT
I think all the others are counting tonight. Bolton, Hulton turnout 28.9%. Circa 4,850 2,800 votes based on 2016 electorate - no notice of poll on website |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 18, 2018 23:11:52 GMT
ROCHFORD Downhall and Rawreth
Craig Cannell (Liberal Democrat) 794
Tony Hollis (Conservative Party) 237
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 18, 2018 23:14:20 GMT
ROCHFORD Downhall and Rawreth Craig Cannell (Liberal Democrat) 794 Tony Hollis (Conservative Party) 237 LD 77.0% Con 23.0% |
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 18, 2018 23:17:55 GMT
I think all the others are counting tonight. Bolton, Hulton turnout 28.9%. Quite high by the standards of recent by-elections? Might be good for Labour given the demographics. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 18, 2018 23:36:26 GMT
ALDC reports:
But which one?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 23:37:42 GMT
The one that represents the same ind group as the member who resigned
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,626
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Post by ricmk on Jan 18, 2018 23:38:14 GMT
A few notes on Newport North and Hanslope which goes to the polls today. It's a real town vs country ward and it all goes back to the boundary review in 2014. This ward could not have been drawn better for the Tories or worse for us. We wanted a single Newport Pagnell ward which would have made more sense locally and helped us elsewhere. However it would have been 11% over average population so we didn't get it, and ended with a split of Newport, half in this ward. Newport Town was solid Lib Dem, the villages of Hanslope Park solid Tory. (For completeness there are 2 additions: Redhouse Park, a new city estate that ended up in Hanslope Park by accident which leans Labour, and Stoke Goldington, a village from the Sherington ward which went LD->Tory in 2011) It was hard to let a stronghold of Newport North go, but we figured that the villages would overpower the town in 2014. Obviously a low ebb for the Lib Dems and there were predictions that we would be all but wiped out. (See this thread vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1932/milton-keynes which was actually how I found this forum.....I had a good laugh reading it through much later.) With several better prospects, no way we could really fight this ward hard in the all out elections, and the Tories duly swept home. So this by-election marks the first time since the ward was created that all 3 parties have been able to work the ward properly. And it'll all be about town vs country turnout. The turnout is historically better in the villages - will they come out on in January? Can the Lib Dems convince former supporters in Newport Town that it's worth it this time? Much easier to work in the compact town than in the villages today. Can Labour throw a spanner in the works by fighting the ward for the first time - areas such as Redhouse Park have potential for them. Don't wait up for the answer - counting tomorrow morning. Now polls have closed, I can admit I'm expecting a big win for country - I think the Tories will win. When the election was called we had a serious plan to win, but I'd now be happy with a decent second and we may not get that. Several reasons: -strong Tory candidate and campaign for the villages -all the highest turnout areas are where the Tories are strongest -several unavoidable issues and a couple of unforced errors with the LD campaign which meant we fell well short of our plan -an unexpectedly strong Labour effort for the first time making it less clear who anti-Tory voters should best support. let's see in the morning..... |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 18, 2018 23:38:52 GMT
ALDC reports: But which one? Well indeed, that is the question. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 18, 2018 23:43:12 GMT
Kieran Wilson, surely. Peter Lucas is ex-UKIP and therefore did not belong to that Independent group.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 18, 2018 23:47:56 GMT
The Bolton Conservatives think they have gained Hulton.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 18, 2018 23:55:09 GMT
Bolton Labour just tweeted something that, while it didn't concede defeat, sounded like they thought they had lost.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 23:56:16 GMT
Sterling Effort
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Jan 18, 2018 23:59:17 GMT
TORY GAIN WOOOOO!
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). I assume the Green candidate is the wife of our existing councillor.
