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Post by yellowperil on Jan 8, 2018 13:12:04 GMT
Four by elections this week including the rather late addition from Bolton, which had or course wandered off..
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 8, 2018 13:34:28 GMT
Rochford DC, Downhall &Rawreth Ward
Liberal Democrat resigned
2 candidates:
Craig Cannell ( Lib Dem)
Tony Hollis (Con)
2002 election results: LD 732/696, Con 291/288
2003 election results: LD 613, Con 208
2006 election results: LD 900, Con 328
2007 election results: LD 857, Con 308
2011 election results: LD 1134, Con 413
2014 election results: LD 1013, Con 346
2015 election results: LD 1242, Con 789, UKIP 574
2016 election results: LD 1111/846/865, Con 305/303/266, Rochford Residents 279, Lab 145
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 9, 2018 12:19:03 GMT
Bolton MB Hulton Ward
Labour died
5 candidates:
Bev Fletcher (UKIP)
Derek John Gradwell (Lib Dem)
Toby Joseph Hewitt (Con)
Rabiya Jiva (Lab)
James Tomkinson ( Green)
Election results 2004: Con 1827/1752/1711, Lab 1423/1380/1281, LD 937/962/771
Election results 2006: Con 1741, Lab 1051, LD 463
Election results 2007: Con 1692, Lab 1088, LD 441
Election results 2008: Con 1822, Lab 1118, LD 421
Election results 2010: Con 2873, Lab 1928, LD 888, Green 364
Election results 2011: Con 1671, Lab 1369. Green 244, LD 215
Election results 2012: Con 1326, Lab 1265, Green 322, LD 61
Election results 2014: UKIP 1291, Con 1150, Lab 1140, Green 162, LD 69
Election results 2015: Lab 2126, Con 1961, UKIP 1818, LD 202,Green 201
Election results 2016: Lab 1374, Con 1214, UKIP 909, Green 122, LD 92
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 9, 2018 13:31:24 GMT
Bolton MB Hulton WardLabour died5 candidates:Bev Fletcher (UKIP)Derek John Gradwell (Lib Dem)Toby Joseph Hewitt (Con)Rabiya Jiva (Lab)James Tomkinson ( Green)Election results 2004: Con 1827/1752/1711, Lab 1423/1380/1281, LD 937/962/771 Election results 2006: Con 1741, Lab 1051, LD 463 Election results 2007: Con 1692, Lab 1088, LD 441 Election results 2008: Con 1822, Lab 1118, LD 421 Election results 2010: Con 2873, Lab 1928, LD 888, Green 364 Election results 2011: Con 1671, Lab 1369. Green 244, LD 215 Election results 2012: Con 1326, Lab 1265, Green 322, LD 61 Election results 2014: UKIP 1291, Con 1150, Lab 1140, Green 162, LD 69 Election results 2015: Lab 2126, Lab 1961, UKIP 1818, LD 202,Green 201 Election results 2016: Lab 1374, Con 1214, UKIP 909, Green 122, LD 92 Gradwell? I'm sure I knew a Liberal Gradwell in the early 80s. His dad? [ I feel old!] |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 9, 2018 13:38:56 GMT
Erm.....who actually won Hulton in 2015?  |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 9, 2018 13:44:29 GMT
Gradwell? I'm sure I knew a Liberal Gradwell in the early 80s. His dad? [ I feel old!] There seems to have been a Derek Gradwell standing on some of the elections previously so I thought he might be an old timer rather than "son of" but maybe someone nearer to the Bolton scene might clarify? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 9, 2018 13:51:52 GMT
Erm.....who actually won Hulton in 2015? Well , Labour , obviously there doesn't seem to have been much opposition does there?  Second place should have read Con, will correct. Thanks for pointing it out- I don't put these mistakes in deliberately to check whether people are attending, but when they happen I am quite happy to discover people are indeed looking out. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 9, 2018 20:48:46 GMT
Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope Ward
Conservative died
3 candidates:
Jane Carr (Lib Dem)
Bill Green (Con)
Nick Phillips (Lab)
2014 election results: Con 1735/1550/1347, UKIP 1096, LD 706/650/641, Lab 601/521/439, Green 456
2015 election results: Con 3476, Lab 1064, LD 1028, UKIP 986, Green 411
2016 election results: Con 1605, Lab 698, LD 623, UKIP 432
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Post by thirdchill on Jan 9, 2018 20:54:52 GMT
Strange that the Tories won Hulton in 2012 (when Labour did very well in some Tory-inclined wards not far away) but not since. Should be a Labour hold, but far from elementary. The comparison with the neighbouring ward of Westhoughton North & Chew Moor is the most interesting. The Conservatives held Hulton in 2010, 2011 and 2012 but lost to UKIP in 2014 (who has since joined the conservatives) and labour in 2015 and 2016 The Conservatives held Westhoughton North & Chew Moor in 2010 and 2014 (same councillor) but lost to labour in 2011 and 2012 but made 1 gain (double election) in 2015 and a further gain in 2016, meaning they now have all 3 councillors in the ward. Part of the explanation may be the councillors in question (Martyn Cox, the Weshoughton councillor standing in 2010 and 2014) does a lot locally and not just at election time. However the other part of the explanation may be the demographics of the Hulton ward. The north part of the ward in particular is fairly deprived with a significant number of ethnic minority voters, fairly similar to some of the neighbouring city centre wards, and labour no doubt have strength there which at the moment outweighs the conservative strength in the more affluent southern part of the ward. What surprises me most about Hulton was not that the conservatives held it is 2012 or that labour gained it in 2015 and 2016, but how UKIP won it in 2014. It really did not look like fertile ground for UKIP in the same way that Little Lever & Darcy Lever was. Either way am looking forward to andrewteale 's preview. |
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 9, 2018 23:03:36 GMT
Strange that the Tories won Hulton in 2012 (when Labour did very well in some Tory-inclined wards not far away) but not since. Should be a Labour hold, but far from elementary. The comparison with the neighbouring ward of Westhoughton North & Chew Moor is the most interesting. The Conservatives held Hulton in 2010, 2011 and 2012 but lost to UKIP in 2014 (who has since joined the conservatives) and labour in 2015 and 2016 The Conservatives held Westhoughton North & Chew Moor in 2010 and 2014 (same councillor) but lost to labour in 2011 and 2012 but made 1 gain (double election) in 2015 and a further gain in 2016, meaning they now have all 3 councillors in the ward. Part of the explanation may be the councillors in question (Martyn Cox, the Weshoughton councillor standing in 2010 and 2014) does a lot locally and not just at election time. However the other part of the explanation may be the demographics of the Hulton ward. The north part of the ward in particular is fairly deprived with a significant number of ethnic minority voters, fairly similar to some of the neighbouring city centre wards, and labour no doubt have strength there which at the moment outweighs the conservative strength in the more affluent southern part of the ward. What surprises me most about Hulton was not that the conservatives held it is 2012 or that labour gained it in 2015 and 2016, but how UKIP won it in 2014. It really did not look like fertile ground for UKIP in the same way that Little Lever & Darcy Lever was. Either way am looking forward to andrewteale 's preview. Westhoughton is truly another world and comparisons are futile. You cannot appreciate just how insular Bolton is without living there - most Boltonians have a mental map which reads "Here be dragons" for anything beyond the Chequerbent Roundabout. You've touched on what I think is going to be the main theme of the preview when I write it - polarisation. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
Member is Online
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Post by maxque on Jan 9, 2018 23:55:18 GMT
The comparison with the neighbouring ward of Westhoughton North & Chew Moor is the most interesting. The Conservatives held Hulton in 2010, 2011 and 2012 but lost to UKIP in 2014 (who has since joined the conservatives) and labour in 2015 and 2016 The Conservatives held Westhoughton North & Chew Moor in 2010 and 2014 (same councillor) but lost to labour in 2011 and 2012 but made 1 gain (double election) in 2015 and a further gain in 2016, meaning they now have all 3 councillors in the ward. Part of the explanation may be the councillors in question (Martyn Cox, the Weshoughton councillor standing in 2010 and 2014) does a lot locally and not just at election time. However the other part of the explanation may be the demographics of the Hulton ward. The north part of the ward in particular is fairly deprived with a significant number of ethnic minority voters, fairly similar to some of the neighbouring city centre wards, and labour no doubt have strength there which at the moment outweighs the conservative strength in the more affluent southern part of the ward. What surprises me most about Hulton was not that the conservatives held it is 2012 or that labour gained it in 2015 and 2016, but how UKIP won it in 2014. It really did not look like fertile ground for UKIP in the same way that Little Lever & Darcy Lever was. Either way am looking forward to andrewteale 's preview. Westhoughton is truly another world and comparisons are futile. You cannot appreciate just how insular Bolton is without living there - most Boltonians have a mental map which reads "Here be dragons" for anything beyond the Chequerbent Roundabout. You've touched on what I think is going to be the main theme of the preview when I write it - polarisation. Wasn't there some kind of scandal about the 2014 Labour candidate, or I'm mixing wards? |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 10, 2018 11:11:38 GMT
Bournemouth UA Throop and Muscliff Ward
Ind Resigned
6 candidates:
Hazel Elizabeth Allen (Con)
Rob Bassinder (Lab)
Jane Maria Bull (Green)
Peter Jonathan Lucas (Ind)
Muriel Turner ( Lib Dem)
Kieran Edward Wilson (Ind)
2003 election results: Ind 1771/1503, Con 809/670, LD 746, Lab 334
2007 election results: Ind 1997/1829/1069, Con 843, Lab 295, LD181, YNON 154
2011 election results: Ind 1734/1490/1037/584, Con 674/601/572,Lab 272, UKIP 156/130/120, LD 132
2015 election results:Ind 1779/927/802/ 795, Con 1468/1376/1200, UKIP 776/702, Lab 529, Green 468
note-top 3 elected in each of these elections. YNON= your neighbour, our neighbourhood.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 10, 2018 11:15:48 GMT
Oh dear, it looks to me like Throop & Muscliff could be another Westward Ho! the nemesis of unwary predictors!
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 13, 2018 14:11:35 GMT
I wonder if the first Independent is our own peterl ?
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,564 
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Post by Sharon on Jan 14, 2018 16:41:59 GMT
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jan 14, 2018 17:42:09 GMT
That having been made clear, [expectation management] I find it necessary to point out that I am currently studying for an MSc and have found myself with three majors assignments to write over Christmas. As a result, my campaigning efforts have been pretty minimal and I'm not expecting a brilliant result. [/expectation management]. On the plus side, I'm attending a press conference organised by a local campaign group on Tuesday, so that could get me a few votes if it goes well.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Jan 14, 2018 17:46:01 GMT
That having been made clear, [expectation management] I find it necessary to point out that I am currently studying for an MSc and have found myself with three majors assignments to write over Christmas. As a result, my campaigning efforts have been pretty minimal and I'm not expecting a brilliant result. [/expectation management]. On the plus side, I'm attending a press conference organised by a local campaign group on Tuesday, so that could get me a few votes if it goes well. Best of luck with your course. Sounds like you'll need even more luck to win that seat on the council this week!  |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jan 14, 2018 17:51:49 GMT
Thank you. I have 2 essays down, and I'm working on number 3 at the moment. As much as I'd like to win a principle council seat, I've had to weigh the certainty of a respected qualification that will allow me to enter a new career on the one side, with a distant chance of about a year on Bournemouth Council before its most likely abolished on the other, so getting a good result in my Masters came out on top without too much mental anguish. I'm just hoping for a result on Thursday that isn't embarrassing.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Jan 15, 2018 21:09:42 GMT
Thank you. I have 2 essays down, and I'm working on number 3 at the moment. As much as I'd like to win a principle council seat, I've had to weigh the certainty of a respected qualification that will allow me to enter a new career on the one side, with a distant chance of about a year on Bournemouth Council before its most likely abolished on the other, so getting a good result in my Masters came out on top without too much mental anguish. I'm just hoping for a result on Thursday that isn't embarrassing. You're most welcome, my dear fellow. It certainly seems like you have your priorities in order, but I'm not sure that any local authority has principles anymore! |
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Post by froome on Jan 15, 2018 21:40:39 GMT
That having been made clear, [expectation management] I find it necessary to point out that I am currently studying for an MSc and have found myself with three majors assignments to write over Christmas. As a result, my campaigning efforts have been pretty minimal and I'm not expecting a brilliant result. [/expectation management]. On the plus side, I'm attending a press conference organised by a local campaign group on Tuesday, so that could get me a few votes if it goes well. Yes good luck (but obviously not too good ). I assume the Green candidate is the wife of our existing councillor. |
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