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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2012 21:46:04 GMT
WOW Sun/YouGov poll tonight-UKIP overtake Lib Dems to be Britain’s 3rd most popular party. CON 32%, LAB 43%, UKIP 9%, LDEM 8% Okay, I'll bite First of all - you're frothing at the mouth, so calm, please. Secondly - margin of error, so it means nothing of the sort. Thirdly - usual caveat(s) on polls. How big the sample? When asked? How weighted? I know this next sentence is from the Big Book of Political Cliche but I'll use it anyway - polls like this don't matter out of context. The next half-dozen or more WILL, only if (and I mean only IF) they show a consistent travel in this direction. This poll is just one, showing a certain statistical quirk. Your "WOW" indicates you're getting cheap thrills from something that means absolutely nowt. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2012 21:47:23 GMT
shame ... no question he will be back
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 16, 2012 22:07:17 GMT
Labour's 11 point lead, btw, matches their best couple of YouGov polls since the GE in March last year. That was before their methodology was tweaked (slightly favouring the Tories) last autumn, however......
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 16, 2012 22:08:20 GMT
Secondly - margin of error, so it means nothing of the sort. The 95% confidence interval would appear to be +/- 2%. But it is not statistically meaningless to have a result within the interval, especially if it is confirmed by other polling. Sample 1,783. Weighting data on page 6: cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4v1i2t5nh2/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-160412.pdf YouGov don't prompt for UKIP voters, which some other pollsters (eg Survation) do; that means that UKIP will generally show lower in YouGov. It's only a statistical quirk if it is not backed up by other polls, and it's foolish to assume there definitely will be polls showing this one is out of line. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2012 22:16:45 GMT
I take your points David. Best to be cautious. This is one poll, showing a one percentage point lead, that is all. I will put my hand up - the phrase "statistical quirk" doesn;'t mean anything until it's shown to be one, so a little wrap across my knuckles there.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2012 22:29:37 GMT
to be honest Dok, I care little for your predicament against UKIP, as far as I am concerned the stronger UKIP gets the better for us.
what the monthly polls have confirmed is now a significant Labour lead and clear tory votes floating off to UKIP. Once the veto farce was found out that was it for Cameron, he has no more anti EU to pull for a while.
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Post by yenton on Apr 17, 2012 10:10:09 GMT
It strikes me that UKIP overtaking the Lib Dems should not come as a surprise given that UKIP have a more singular identity and political message. In the same way that the SNP have destroyed the Lib Dems in Scotland.
The problem the Liberal Democrats have is that very few voters identify themselves as Liberal Democrats. Therefore in the context of being in government they have a tiny base (largely in Cornwall) upon which to fall back upon.
The simply fact is that they have spent too long playing at being the opposition that they have failed to develop a political ideology to which people will subscribe. The role of national opposition has now fallen to others. I am sure the Lib Dems on here will disagree but I suspect that they are doomed to a position of being one of many minor parties with patches of strength in various parts of the UK.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2012 10:21:04 GMT
Latest Angus Reid - Lab 41 Con 29 LibDem 11 UKIP 8
A 12-point lead is the biggest for Labour in any poll since Cameron became Tory leader in late 2005. Also the lowest Tory rating since then.
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Post by yenton on Apr 17, 2012 10:24:25 GMT
Latest Angus Reid - Lab 41 Con 29 LibDem 11 UKIP 8 A 12-point lead is the biggest for Labour in any poll since Cameron became Tory leader in late 2005. Also the lowest Tory rating since then. Hmmm I remain unconivinced. I would love to believe that we are heading for a 1997 esque landlside But my sense is that it is far closer than this poll suggests. I not sure of Angus Reid's methodology as they always seem to throw up very odd polls at the extreme end of the polling spectrum at any one time. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2012 10:27:52 GMT
We were posting leads of 25, 30, even 40 points in the run up to 1997 you know  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2012 10:28:11 GMT
Nobody has ever suggested that you're heading towards a 1997 landslide
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Post by thirdchill on Apr 17, 2012 10:29:49 GMT
Latest Angus Reid - Lab 41 Con 29 LibDem 11 UKIP 8 A 12-point lead is the biggest for Labour in any poll since Cameron became Tory leader in late 2005. Also the lowest Tory rating since then. Hmmm I remain unconivinced. I would love to believe that we are heading for a 1997 esque landlside But my sense is that it is far closer than this poll suggests. I not sure of Angus Reid's methodology as they always seem to throw up very odd polls at the extreme end of the polling spectrum at any one time. I am also unconvinced by this. It would mean that others (not including UKIP) have 11%. In the last general election, others (including UKIP) had around approximately 12%. The lib dem figure might be a bit more accurate. I have never been convinced about the lib dems polling 8-9%. Outside of scotland, I think this is too low and could make us conservatives (and indeed labour) a bit too complacent about the lib dems. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2012 10:31:38 GMT
The GB figures in May 2010 were (roughly) 37-30-24, leaving about 9% for "others" - still the highest figure since the war IIRC.
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Post by yenton on Apr 17, 2012 10:38:10 GMT
I would expect a higher others vote next time than in 2010. There is a significant historical trend in that direction.
The SNP/PC vote remains high in their nations and the greens and respect have shown that if you focus even as a smaller party seats can be won in FPTP. In fact declining vote share for the big three will make this more likely. Getting back to UKIP there problem is that they don't seem to have the ability to focus. First build a local party, win a few council seats, focus your resources and in time parliamentary seats are possible.
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Post by thirdchill on Apr 17, 2012 10:54:09 GMT
I would expect a higher others vote next time than in 2010. There is a significant historical trend in that direction. The SNP/PC vote remains high in their nations and the greens and respect have shown that if you focus even as a smaller party seats can be won in FPTP. In fact declining vote share for the big three will make this more likely. Getting back to UKIP there problem is that they don't seem to have the ability to focus. First build a local party, win a few council seats, focus your resources and in time parliamentary seats are possible. I expect the SNP to do well in 2015 but I don't think Plaid will be the same. They should have gained votes and 1 or 2 seats in 2011 but they did abysmally, coming behind the conservatives (they were ahead of them in 2007). |
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Post by ailean on Apr 17, 2012 11:00:30 GMT
I expect the SNP to do well in 2015 but I don't think Plaid will be the same. They should have gained votes and 1 or 2 seats in 2011 but they did abysmally, coming behind the conservatives (they were ahead of them in 2007). If indeed there is the need for a general election in Scotland in 2015!  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2012 12:00:12 GMT
Latest Angus Reid - Lab 41 Con 29 LibDem 11 UKIP 8 A 12-point lead is the biggest for Labour in any poll since Cameron became Tory leader in late 2005. Also the lowest Tory rating since then. Hmmm I remain unconivinced. I would love to believe that we are heading for a 1997 esque landlside But my sense is that it is far closer than this poll suggests. I not sure of Angus Reid's methodology as they always seem to throw up very odd polls at the extreme end of the polling spectrum at any one time. OK the tory vote may be the outlier but the rest are broadly in line wit hthe rest of the polls. Clearly the budget has been a political disaster for the Tories and Osborne in particular. I thought our disaster was the 10p rate this is close to that now. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2012 18:36:27 GMT
yep, I wonder what teh relations with Cameron are
Opinium poll again showing UKIP in front of LD's
CON 32%(-2), LAB 37%(-2), UKIP 10%(+1), LDEM 9%, Others 12%.
the difference with this poll is that show a lower level of Lab support
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2012 18:44:49 GMT
Another one point lead by UKIP so not breaking sweat here, anyway. Interesting that Labour has fallen.
That said - and this is the same with the stock market change commentary too - as interesting as it might be to highlight and analyse all this, daily fluctuations are to be expected.
In a year's time we won't even remember that UKIP were ahead of us by so little for a week in April.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2012 19:21:34 GMT
IIRC Opinium is a panel survey, something that was vaguely fashionable around the time of padded shoulders and cellphones the size of bricks (by which I mean, unlike for instance YouGov, the *same* people are questioned each time) |
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