|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 17, 2012 20:48:22 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2012 22:30:03 GMT
Two in a row shurely? And does that count as a trend then? Besides, other polls released yesterday had it the t'other way round...so..
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2012 22:34:06 GMT
What I like about this Ukip/Libdem poll story is that Pimpy deleted his account just before it broke. He's missed out on some serious bragging rights!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2012 2:45:28 GMT
It's not a "trend". At the moment, it's a "pattern".
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 18, 2012 7:57:47 GMT
In a year's time we won't even remember that UKIP were ahead of us by so little for a week in April. Given that people have been raising the prospect of it happening for about 18 months, I think the fact it has finally come to pass is at least a milestone. It doesn't mean it'll be sustained, and it'd certainly be unlikely to happen if an election was called tomorrow, as the Lib Dems have a much better ground game than UKIP, but I think you might be being a bit too eager to deny this has any importance whatsoever.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
|
Post by Tony Otim on Apr 18, 2012 8:59:39 GMT
I expect the SNP to do well in 2015 but I don't think Plaid will be the same. They should have gained votes and 1 or 2 seats in 2011 but they did abysmally, coming behind the conservatives (they were ahead of them in 2007). The SNP vote in 2015 is one of the least predictable elements of an unpredictable picture. If the referendum is a Yes, then it will of course be irrelevant. If No, we will have to wait and see how that impacts on the SNP ratings. Plus it remains to be seen if they can carry much of their Holyrood vote into Westminster elections. They did poorly at this in 2010, the LD decline should help them, but it's all guess work at the moment.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2012 5:34:21 GMT
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Apr 19, 2012 7:25:20 GMT
What I like about this Ukip/Libdem poll story is that Pimpy deleted his account just before it broke. He's missed out on some serious bragging rights! What have I missed , where has Pimp gone and why ?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2012 7:38:47 GMT
Labour lead falling ? well as YG had it at 6 last week and the monthlies all roughly in line think Lab supporters quite happy. all MOE stuff, not sure the LD's should be crowing about being level with UKIP
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2012 7:50:49 GMT
Labour lead falling ? well as YG had it at 6 last week and the monthlies all roughly in line think Lab supporters quite happy. all MOE stuff, not sure the LD's should be crowing about being level with UKIP Yes, it is all within the MoE, funny how you comment on that now That's the very reason why I dismissed the thing in the first place. And I'm not crowing. And we're not level. We're ahead.
|
|
|
Post by kvasir on Apr 19, 2012 8:04:55 GMT
Technically since you're both within the margin of error of each other it is a tie.
But regardless you accept I assume that there has been a shift (the size of which can be debated) against the Conservatives towards UKIP which puts pressure on your 3rd place. We can question whether this bounce is just that, something which comes back down very quickly, but the underlying polls indicate at this time something.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 19, 2012 11:28:56 GMT
Could of course be because we recognise that one poll is a data point, not a pattern or a trend. I believe you were saying something very similar, right up until it suited your purposes to reverse position. The fluctuation of the Labour lead does suggest an increased degree of volatility in the electorate. A week of ten point leads or thereabouts in the aftermath of the budget was followed by a narrowing to four to six points in four separate polls around the weekend and the run-up to it. That would be explicable as the fading of the impact of the Budget. Yet then the gap seems to have opened out again, at least for now. And yet there's no obvious reason why. Are there a lot of people all on the cusp of switching at once? And if so, what pushed them a second time?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 19, 2012 11:39:41 GMT
The poll narrowing last week maybe has more to do with the fact it was just after a holiday period, IMO.
I do agree the last month could be something of a "tipping point" for quite a few voters, however.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2012 12:02:01 GMT
I see no reason why anyone saying to a pollster last week Labour after being Tory would now switch back. The narrative now is of an incompetent government and leadership making simple mistakes, the deportation thing is another one.
This kind of narrative for Brown as a ditherer after not calling a 2007 election did for Brown and will do the same for Cameron
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2012 21:02:44 GMT
I always said the dailies mean nothing but when you see this
CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 8% and Others 16% (UKIP are on 7%
It must shake things up a bit
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,372
|
Post by Sibboleth on Apr 19, 2012 21:08:11 GMT
O.K, those are fantasy numbers. Not that I've anything against a bit of that sort of thing, mind.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2012 21:19:50 GMT
O.K, those are fantasy numbers. Not that I've anything against a bit of that sort of thing, mind. it sets the tone of course even if a rogue one ...
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 19, 2012 21:24:05 GMT
That might just be the biggest Labour lead in any poll since Iraq started going tits-up in the summer of 2003.....
(they have scored 45% a couple of times on YouGov last year, but the Tory score then was a bit higher)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2012 21:33:26 GMT
O.K, those are fantasy numbers. Not that I've anything against a bit of that sort of thing, mind. it sets the tone of course even if a rogue one ... Yes, the tone it sets is "Hahaha, that's not real"
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 19, 2012 21:35:36 GMT
That might just be the biggest Labour lead in any poll since Iraq started going tits-up in the summer of 2003..... (they have scored 45% a couple of times on YouGov last year, but the Tory score then was a bit higher) Labour had a 13-pointer in a MORI poll, 44-31, during the Brown honeymoon - 20-26 September 2007. There was another one, 41-28, also in MORI immediately after the 7/7 attacks - 14-18 July 2005.
|
|