Nepal general election, 2017

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Final provincial assembly FPTP results:

Left Alliance: 243
CPN-UML 167
Maoist Centre 74
Naya Shakti Party (NSS) 2

Other leftists: 3
Rastriya Janamorcha (RJM) 2
Nepal Majdoor Kisan (NMK) (= Nepal Workers Peasants Party - NWPP) 1

Madhesi parties: 40
Rastriya Janata Party (RJP) 16
Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum 24

Nepali Congress 41

Independents 3

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RJP now solidly above the threshold at 3.86%, so it was probably just because there wasn't enough Province 2 votes in the earlier counts. There must be less than 500,000 votes out now, but I haven't got the exact number for the PR votes (its separate ballots).

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The PR count has now been finished in 75 districts in both the federal and provincial elections. Counting is still ongoing in Sunsari and Sarlahi. A total of 9,498,271 votes has been cast in the federal elections, and its clear only the Big 3 and the two large Madeshi parties will make it.

The result from the 75 districts:

CPN-UML 3,160,945
Nepali Congress 3,110,225
Maoist Centre 1,295,711
Sanghira Samajbadi Forum (SSF) 468,399
Rastriya Janata Party (RJP) 468,346

Below 3% threshold:

Bibeksheel Sajha Party (BSP) 212,293 (SocLib/Progressive party led by Rabindra Mishra, former editor of BBC Nepali Service and founder of the Help Nepal Network)

Royalists:
Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) 196,186
Rastriya Prajatantra Party (Prajatantrik) 88,212

Leftist:
Naya Shakti Nepal (NSP) 81,426 (in Left Alliance)
Rastriya Janamorcha (RJM) 62,123

Ca. 350,000 votes went to even smaller parties.

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The PR count has finished, but the 110 seats haven't been allocated. The delay is due to the government (= Congress) trying to claim that is is necessary to elect the National Assembly before appointing candidates to the PR seats of the House of Representatives (even if the two elections are independent of each other).

The government has issued an ordinance for National Assembly elections which introduces STV in the electoral college that elects the NA, rather than simple majority vote, as the Constitution stipulates (which would lead to a solid Left Alliance majority). The president hasn't approved this yet, and the Left Alliance urge him not to.

The government has also appointed provincial governors, which the Left Alliance sees as illegitimate (given that it is a caretaker administration).

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The two Royalist parties got 2.98%, so still below the threshold if they hadn't split.

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The Left Alliance leaders now demand that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba resigns immediately "on moral grounds, respecting the people's mandate" and a new government under the leadership of CPN-UML chairman Sharma Oli formed by January 21 (although the Maoists still want the two Communist parties united before they form a government).

They have also expressed willingness to take "a middle path" between majority vote and STV on the National Assembly ordinance.

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It seems the compromise will be that Sharma Oli (CPN-UML) will become the PM in the first half of the five year term, while Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Maoist Centre) will replace him in the second half.

Dahal will lead the Party Unification Coordination Committee, which will present a road-map and "modalities" for unification by March.

The government will have a common programme, which they will agree on in the Unification Coordination Committee and after that they we will hold a general convention and unite the parties.

So the Maoists will not get party unification before the government is formed, but Dahal gets both the chairmanship of the new party and half the PM term (he might have gotten that anyway as Oli is in poor health, but now it will be formalized).

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PM Deuba wants the National Assembly formed before the new government takes over. This requires two things:

a) The President must sign the National Assembly Election Ordinance (which includes use of STV by the provincial Electoral Assemblies that elect it).

b) Appointment of provincial governors (State Chiefs), who are responsible for calling the Provincial Assemblies, which select a core part of the Electoral Assemblies.

In addition the current government wants to pick the three National Assembly members the government can nominate.

Oli and Dahal on the contrary claim that the Constitution doesn't prevent the formation of a new government before the formation of the National Assembly, because a government only needs a majority in the (already elected) lower house, and that electing the Upper House after the government is formed is in accordance with tradition and morally right.

They are also against the caretaker government appointing the new provincial governors (State Chiefs), and say their government will reverse any appointments, and accuse the government of pressuring the President to endorse an "unconstitutional" NA ordinance (Oli: "The rules can not change once the game starts").

The government on its side has refused to allocate the 110 PR seats in the HoR until there is a procedure for electing the National Assembly in place, but is simultaneously saying that the allocation process is moving along.

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The Electoral Commission has allocated the 220 PR seats in the Provincial Assemblies, but not yet in the HoR. A meeting between the leaders of the five biggest parties ended without result.

CPN-UML 75
Nepali Congress 72
Maoist Centre 35
Sanghiya Samajwadi Forum (SSF) 13
Rastriya Janata Party (RJP) 12
Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) 3
Bibeksheel Sajha Party (BSP) 3
Rastriya Janamorcha (RJM) 2
Naya Shakti Party (NSP) 1
Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Democratic (RPP-D) 1
Nepal Workers and Peasants Party 1
Nepal Sanghiya Samajbadi Party (NSSP) 1
Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch (SLRM) 1

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Seats in the provincial assemblies

CPN-UML 242
Nepali Congress 113
Maoist Centre 109
Sanghiya Samajwadi Forum (SSF) 37
Rastriya Janata Party (RSP) 28
Bibeksheel Sajha Party (BSP) 3
Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) 3
Naya Shakti Party (NSP) 3
Rastriya Janamorcha (RJM) 4
Majdoor Kisan Party (MKP) 2 (= Nepal Workers and Peasants Party)
Rastriya Prajatantra Party (Democratic) (RPP-D) 1
Sanghiya Samajwadi Party (SPP) 1
Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch (SLRM) 1
Indies 3

Total 550

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There has been some kind of falling out between UML-CPN and Maoist Centre, and parts of UML want to isolate the Maoists.

Sharma Oli has held a meeting with SSF chairman Upendra Yadav. The UML-CPN and the SSF have the minimal majority in the HoR of 138 (121+17). Maoist leader Dahal has criticized the Oli-Yadav meeting, while Oli says that it was pre-agreed between UML-CPN and Maoist Centre

RJP leaders say they are wiling to team up with UML-CPN if they commit to amending the constitution. The SSF/RJP alliance totally dominated Province 2 and they got 38 seats combined, so a UML-CPN + Madhesi government would have a workable majority if both Madhesi parties enter.

The Madhesi parties still want a constitutional revision securing greater representation in both houses based on their share of the general population, abolishing of the clause saying certain top posts (incl. President, PM, Speaker and military chiefs) should always go to persons of Nepali descent and changed provincial borders to allow the Madhesis to dominate more than just one province + readjustment of the electoral boundaries every ten years, rather than twenty as now. All demands UML-CPN have hitherto refused, so hard to see this working out. Its likely just intended to put pressure on Maoist Centre.

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In other news the EC let RJP get away with selecting only Madhesi PR representatives for the Provincial Assembly in Province 2, even if they were supposed to include ethnic minorities (Tharu and indigenous communities) on their list "as far as possible". They are the only party to have presented a de facto mono-ethnic list for a provincial election. It also only included a few token Dalits and Muslims, no Muslims or Dalit women get in and just one male Dalit. As previously mentioned RJP did elect a Tharu representative accused of mass murder (still not certified as the police maintain he will be arrested if he returns) to the federal house of Representatives in a constituency seat (Kailali-1). SSF have significantly more broad based lists and have elected several minority representatives.

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Things are still complicated.

Party unification talks are "on hold" until Dahal returns to the capital. If the Communist parties - as look likely - haven't agreed on a unification structure before the government is formed they will have to agree on a formula about how to split the portfolios. The Maoists want a 60:40 distribution of cabinet portfolios, while CPN-UML want 70:30 based on the split of the PR seats.

Maoist Centre have seemingly accepted STV for the National Assembly elections and urge UML to either compromise or come up with an alternative solution. STV may benefit the Maoists. The Madhesi parties see STV as their only chance to get seats outside Province 2 and strongly back it.

UML refuse to cave and want the EC to state the number of PR seats in the HoR right away (without naming the candidates), so a Left Alliance government can be formed, which will then organize the National Assembly elections.

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President Bidhya Devi Bhandari has signed the government's controversial ordinance on National Assembly election. CPN-UML say the move is unconstitutional.

This means that an Electoral College for electing the National Assembly can be formed consisting of Provincial Assembly representatives and the chiefs and deputy chiefs of local government areas. They will elect the Assembly by STV.

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With the UML/Maoist disagreement over the NA ordinance (the Maoists de facto endorsed STV, which gave the President an excuse to sign the ordinance), and UML flirting with the two Madhesi parties, the formation of a Left Alliance government seems on more shaky ground than before (though still clearly the most likely). Congress now try to throw a spanner in the works by saying their party is ready to support Maoist Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal for Prime Minister if the Left Alliance fails to form a government.