Nepal general election, 2017

[maxque]

The heir to the Throne going onto a killing spree and killing most of his family led to that too.

That happened in 2001 and the Communist were in a Civil War against monarchy since 1996. Communists took control of the countryside, the King assumed direct control in 2005 due to the elected government falling to solve the issue (and banned news, internet and telephone to do that, while arresting hundreds of journalists and NGO members) and it went so badly than the former elected government joined opposition to the King. They finally (the former government-communist alliance and the King) made a deal for a new Constitution with a place for the monarchy (which they reneged on as soon they could, as all parties saw the King as a threat to democracy).

It's a wierd situation, where the King pretty much managed to alienate everyone in the country.

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2017 10:12:35 GMT @goodoldcause said:

Despite their rather alarming names and histories, the left-wing parties in Nepal are not running on a doctrinaire communist programme.

In part, this outcome is a result of the incoherence and intellectual bankruptcy of the non-left parties. The Congress Party's historic links to India are also problematic at a time when relations between the two countries have been difficult.

Congress has always positioned itself as a progressive and secular party (it is on paper also Socialist and a member of Socialist International), and then it suddenly allied with right wing royalists, who wants to create a Hindu monarchy and are associated with feudalism, unsurprisingly that has undermined their credibility and scared away moderate voters as any moves in that direction would reignite the civil war. 

Trying to scaremonger about the communists wanting to create a dictatorship has also massively backfired as both the Communist parties have been in power and are fully normalized in the eyes of the voters.

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2017 10:37:38 GMT maxque said:

It's a weird situation, where the King pretty much managed to alienate everyone in the country.

The way it happened may have been "weird", but the anachronistic feudal system which the monarchy embodied wasn't viable and always going to collapse at some point, and its hard to see a way the country could have developed into a modern constitutional monarchy. Attempts at reform were made, but they were ultimately always doomed. 

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2017 10:12:35 GMT @goodoldcause said:

Despite their rather alarming names and histories, the left-wing parties in Nepal are not running on a doctrinaire communist programme.

Its a fool's errand to try to put Western ideological labels on parties in a poor developing country, but Nepal really suffers from a bad case of sinistrism, so it might be helpful to try anyway. All parties are Nationalist, but the CPN-UML does Nationalism better, while NC have been particularly bad at playing that game for years.

Their Maoists are de facto Social Democrats (or Democratic Socialists, but even that may be a stretch these days).

Their Unified Marxist-Leninists are technocratic centrist reformers with good relations to the business community.

Their Democratic Socialists (Nepali Congress) are the secular and progressive centre-right.

Their Royalists stretches from Conservative constitutional monarchists to reactionary extremists, who want to bring back feudalism and create a "Hindu state".

Then there are the regional and/or ethno-caste parties, which represent underprivileged and/or outsider groups (some of the latter are quite well-off, and some groups have switched place in the hierarchy over the centuries, at least one group has done so twice).

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 11, 2017 11:19:54 GMT @odo said:

Dec 11, 2017 10:12:35 GMT @goodoldcause said:

Despite their rather alarming names and histories, the left-wing parties in Nepal are not running on a doctrinaire communist programme.

Its a fool's errand to try to put Western ideological labels on parties in a poor developing country, but Nepal really suffers from a bad case of sinistrism, so it might be helpful to try anyway. All parties are Nationalist, but the CPN-UML does Nationalism better, while NC have been particularly bad at playing that game for years.

Their Maoists are de facto Social Democrats (or Democratic Socialists, but even that may be a stretch these days).

Their Unified Marxist-Leninists are technocratic centrist reformers with good relations to the business community.

Their Democratic Socialists (Nepali Congress) are the secular and progressive centre-right.

Their Royalists stretches from Conservative constitutional monarchists to reactionary extremists, who want to bring back feudalism and create a "Hindu state".

Then there are the regional and/or ethno-caste parties, which represent underprivileged and/or outsider groups (some of the latter are quite well-off, and some groups have switched place in the hierarchy over the centuries, at least one group has done so twice).

@odo may just have won my vote for Technical Contributor of the Year.

[Deleted]

Merseymike Maoist or Marxist-Leninist

[Merseymike]

Dec 11, 2017 19:35:04 GMT joe said:

Merseymike Maoist or Marxist-Leninist

I would have to opt for Mao.
But from those descriptions you'd have to opt for the Marxist-Leninists 🤣

[Deleted]

Still the status this morning. There has been remarkably few changes during the count, and I think they have taken care to start out with what was considered representative samples to avoid accusations of rigging when a leading candidate falls behind. Still one more NC heavyweight trailing a CPN-UML candidate in Syangja-2 (the last constituency to start counting), but most likely all remaining leads will hold.

The provincial assembly count hasn't started in one constituency, but is otherwise nearly at an end as well.

[Deleted]

The Left Alliance is going to form six of the seven state governments.

Nepali Congress is so far only slightly behind CPN-UML in the PR count, but still early days, only nine districts are fully counted.

[Deleted]

Resham Chaudhary from the Madhesi and other outcast group based Rastriya Janata Party won a landslide victory in Kailali-1 with a margin of almost 21,000 votes to the CPN-UML runner-up (it was a three way battle with the NC finishing third).

Its a bit controversial because the winner is on the police's Most Wanted list accused of being the leader of the lynching of eight police officers and an infant in the so-called Tikapur carnage in August 2015. He lives in exile in India and registered his nomination with the Election Commission (EC) through a relative, and has used social media to conduct his election campaign.

He is a Tharu, a group that has been held in debt slavery until recently, and got 100% of the vote in most of the Tharu communities.

Chaudhary wants the charges against him dropped and says the "Tikapur incident" (as he prefers to call it..) was the result of "political agitation".

thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/tikapur-carnage-conspirator-resham-lal-chaudhary-elected-kailali-1

[Deleted]

The PR vote with c. 4.5 mil votes counted (= likely 2 mio. left)

CPN-UML 35.9%
Nepali Congress 33.86%
Maoist Centre 14.24%
Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum (SSF) 3.6% (Federal Socialist Forum, represents Madhesi and other "outcast" groups)

Below the 3% threshold:

Rastriya Janata Party 2.32 (National People's Party, represents Madhesi and other "outcast" groups)
Minor parties 10.08% (incl. Royalists)

So only the Big 3 and SSF would get a share of the 110 PR seats. Would be a decent result for Congress given the situation.

[Deleted]

Only one constituency left. Sunsari-3 in the SE corner where Bhagwati Chaudhary from CPN-UML leads Bijay Kumar Gachhadar from Congress by 44 votes (32,570 to 32,526).

Sunsari-3B is the only unfinished provincial assembly constituency. Congress has a solid lead here. 

[Deleted]

So the final distribution of constituency seats will be:

CPN-UML 80 or 81
Maoist Centre 36
Nepali Congress 22 or 23
Others 26

[Deleted]

Provincial Assemblies (it seems there are only 329 seats, and not the prescribed 330)



Province 1 (56 seats)

CPN-UML 36
Maoist Centre 10
Nepali Congress 7 (probably 8)
Others 2


Province 2 (63 seats)

Its located in the Eastern Terai, so Madhesi parties are dominating, so it kind of has its own party system. Only province that will not be ruled by the Left Alliance.

SSF 18
CPN-UML 14
RJP 14
Others 17 (incl. Congress and Maoist Centre)

Province 3 (66 seats)

Includes the Kathmandu Valley. 

CPN-UML 42
Maoist Centre 15
Nepali Congress 7
Others 2

Province 4 (36 seats)

CPN-UML 16
Maoist Centre 9
Nepali Congress 7
Others 4

Province 5 (52 seats)

CPN-UML 27
Maoist Centre 15
Nepali Congress 7
Others 3

Province 6 (24 seats)

CPN-UML 14
Maoist Centre 8
Nepali Congress 2


Province 7 (32 seats)

CPN-UML 17
Maoist Centre 10
Nepali Congress 4
Others 1

[polupolu]

So CPN-UML short of a majority - will they find it difficult to get coalition partners?

[Deleted]

The counting was stalled in Sunsari-3 yesterday after a currency note and a counterfoil of the ballot were found during counting and the representatives of the Congress and CPN-UML candidates accused each other of trying to rig the poll. It was resumed this afternoon.

[Deleted]

Dec 12, 2017 16:58:15 GMT polupolu said:

So CPN-UML short of a majority - will they find it difficult to get coalition partners?

They are merging with Maoist Centre and the process will proceed simultaneously with the government formation. 

[Deleted]

I have checked the "Other" category.

The two big Madhesi + other outsiders parties get 21 seats.

RJP 11 (10 in Province 2, 1 in Province 7)
SSF 10 (9 in Province 2, 1 in Province 5)

The remaining five are:

Province 1: Rajendra Lingden, Jhapa, Province 1, RPP (Royalist), elected with Left Alliance backing to block Congress heavyweight.

Province 3: Prem Suwal, Bhaktapur, Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (Communist fringe party, seat inherited from party founder).

Province 5: Durga Poudel, Pyuthan, Rastriya Janamorcha (RJM), front for Communist Party of Nepal (Masal)

Province 4: Baburam Bhattarai, Gorkha, Naya Shakti Party (NSS) (ex-CPN-UML). He is a former Prime Minister - one of many in a country that has has 26 governments since, who founded his own party.

Province 6: Chakka Bahadur Lama, Humla (Indie, trekking guide, documentary "star", ex-Maoist).

[Deleted]

The constituency result is:

Left Alliance: 117
CPN-UML 80
Maoist Centre 36
NSS 1

Other leftists: 3
NWPP 1
RJM 1
Indie 1

Madhesi parties: 21
RJP 11
SSF 10

Congress 23

Royalists: 1
RPP: 1

Given that only SSF is above the threshold with most of the PR votes counted small party MPs are going to become quite rare, but there will likely be some defections and splits along the way, its hard to imagine there won't in Nepal.. even with the threat of becoming lost in the wilderness without a registered "national party" to back you.

If the Left Alliance fusion moves ahead the new Communist Party, Congress and SSF will be the only three "national parties", unless RJP makes it on the final votes.

[Deleted]

Nepali Congress won the last seat, so I am editing the post above accordingly.