Nepal general election, 2017

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First phase of the Nepali parliamentary elections (first proper ones in 18 years..) takes place today along with provincial/state elections.

They will elect the House of Representatives, which has 275 members, using parallel voting. 110 representatives are elected using closed list PR in one national constituency with a 3% threshold (same for alliances), and the remaining 165 using FPTP in single member constituencies. They will also elect provincial councils (one for each of the seven new states but apparently still called "provincial"), which appoint members to the electoral college that elects 56 of 59 members to the National Assembly (eight from each state). The remaining three are appointed by the president.

The election is supposed to finalize Nepal's transformation to a federal republic (established by the 2015 constitution).

The poll is carried out in two phases due to climatic and practical reasons, the first one on 26/11 takes place in the 32 hill and mountain jillā (districts) and the second one on 7/12 in the 45 terai (lowland) jillā.




The main parties are united in two big tent alliances, one right/centre and the other for parties from the Communist traditions:

The Democratic Alliance: Nepali Congress, Rastriya Prajantanra Party, Rastriya Prajantanra Party (Democratic) and a handful of Madhesh regional parties (some of which also represents other minorities).

The Left Alliance: Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) + Rastriya Janamorcha and Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist–Leninist) in some constituencies.

More than 75 other parties are participating, but none of them matter much.

The parties with 10+ seats in the current Legislature (based on the 2nd Constitutional Assembly) are:

Nepali Congress 207 (a sister party to INC of sorts, though a bit more complicated than that)

Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) 181
Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) 82

Rastriya Prajatantra Party 37 (monarchists now split in three, the two in the Democratic Alliance have 30+ seats)

Minority parties

Rastriya Janata Party Nepal 24
Nepal Democratic Forum 18
Federal Socialist Forum Nepal 15

So the two big Communist parties (which aren't all that Communist anymore..) have 263 seats between them, and eight from the two smaller Communist parties that are partly in the alliance.

Congress + the monarchist RPPs in DA have ca. 240 seats, and the three largest Madeshi + Newar parties have 57, so 297-299 in total + a handful from minor parties.

For the first time since 1999, parliamentary elections will be held in Nepal on Sunday. However, the vote may not change much in the politically unstable country, says Julia Strasheim from the Helmut Schmidt Foundation.

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Ethnic map (or rather ethno-caste map).

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The poll opened at 7 AM local time today and will close at 5 PM (in around 20 min). Nepal time is UTC +5.45.

The 32 districts they are voting in today encompass 37 of the 165 parliamentary constituencies, with 3.19 mio. of the 15.4 mio. voters.

The mountain & hill district electorate also elects 74 of the 330 FPTP seats in the provincial assemblies today.

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election.nagariknews.com/federal-election-2074-nepal/candidates?lang=ENG

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The two phases (from the locals, but the borders are the same this time with exception of the capital area K/B/L, which votes in phase two). In addition to the mountain/hill jillās phase one also includes the highland part of two other jillās.

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There are 550 members of the provincial assemblies (council is a mistranslation), not 350 as I wrote (based on an Indian newspaper article), and the assemblies aren't of equal size.

60% of the members of each assembly are elected by FPTP. There are twice as many constituencies as for the House of Representatives from each province, so 330 in total (each parliamentary constituency is simply divided in two). The remaining 40% of the members of each assembly (= 220 in total) are elected by closed list PR.

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The elections by and large went peacefully (there have been some bomb attacks on politicians recently, so security was tight). Turnout is by now estimated to 65%, but might increase of bit once when the final turnout figure is available. Turnout in the Constituent Assembly elections in 2013 was 78.7% and 74.2% in the local elections earlier this year, so 65% would be comparatively low, but its freezing cold in the mountains and some roads are blocked (ultimo-November elections aren't exactly ideal in Nepal..), so that is the most likely explanation, not security concerns or lack of interest.

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For those who haven't followed this (which I guess is almost everybody..) UML and Maoist Centre agreed to split the FPTP constituencies 60/40 apart from the ones allocated to the smaller Communist parties. They have formed a joint leader team to work on a unification of the parties, to be formalized after the elections. Uniting the Nepalese Communists is an old dream, which has failed every time it has been tried.

The Maoists had been coalition with the fairly centrist Nepali Congress and pledged to enter a long-term alliance with them before they decided to team up with the main opposition party, but they continued to support the NC government to ensure the elections were conducted on time. The UML has been viewed as being pro-Chinese, whereas Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal "Prachanda" Dahal (ironically for a Maoist chairman.. ) has been viewed as pro-Indian and his alliance with the traditional pro-Indian party the NC cemented that view. So it was rumored China had facilitated the "Communist" alliance to secure its continued influence.

If a party doesn't get both PR seats (meaning at least 3% nationally) and get a constituency seat it will not get status as a "national party" and be on the PR ballot next time (unless it re-registers, which is made complicated), and its expected that lots of minor parties will disappear and merge into one of the main ones. Many expect a two party system to develop, but the Nepalese Communists have a history of incessant factionalism with splits occurring regularly, so that seems rather unlikely.

The left has generally been dominant in Nepalese politics since democracy was reintroduced, but the alliance with the Madeshi regionalists (some of which include Newar and Dalit factions) might mean the Democratic Alliance gets closer than expected.

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Apparently the NC "Democratic Alliance" deal with the Madeshi parties isn't actually finalized, but NC are engaged in last minute negotiations about sharing constituencies. So it looks like the national Democratic Alliance is really just Congress + Monarchists, and the rest will be partial deals.
www.kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2017-11-28/congress-courts-madhesi-fringe-forces-to-contain-left.html

Meanwhile PM Sher Bahadur Deuba (NC) is scaremongering about a Communist victory leading to the end of democracy and establishment of an "authoritarian state". Thee doesn't seem to be much basis for that, the Nepalese Commies aren't all that Communist anymore. 

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Bad news... 

"Eight people including a Myadi police (temporary police) man were injured when an unidentified group detonated a blast at Tulsipur, Dang on Tuesday. Four of the injured are said to be critical. The improvised explosive device (IED) was set off near Delight corner shop at Tulsipur Sub-metropolitan-5 when Prime Minister and Nepali Congress (NC) President Sher Bahadur Deuba was heading to address an election assembly at Araniko ground. He was accompanied by senior NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel, and General Secretary Shashanka Koirala, among other central leaders."

kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2017-11-28/bomb-blasts-targeting-nc-programme-in-tulsipur.html

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The Electoral Commission put the preliminary turnout of the 2nd phase at 67%. The counting is still ongoing (see the link posted earlier if you are interested in following it).

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The Left Alliance leads in two-third of the constituencies and it looks like they will win this with a comfortable margin.  

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The count hasn't started in all 165 constituencies, but in the 124 where its ongoing its:

Won:

CPN-UML 8
Maoist Centre 2
Nepali Congress 0
Others 1


Leading:

CPN-UML 60
Maoist Centre 25
Nepali Congress 14
Others 14

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The count is now under way in 130 constituencies:

Won:

CPN-UML 9
Maoist Centre 2
Nepali Congress 0
Others 1


Leading:

CPN-UML 62
Maoist Centre 25
Nepali Congress 16
Others 15

Looks like the CPN-UML may get a majority on their own.

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The count is now under way in 161 of 165 constituencies, and 38 have been decided. The Left Alliance will win a very comfortable majority, but CPN-UML will fall short of getting a majority on their own.

Won (38):

CPN-UML 23
Maoist Centre 9
Nepali Congress 5
Others 1


Leading (123):

CPN-UML 57
Maoist Centre 25
Nepali Congress 21
Others 20

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They only start counting the votes for the "proportional representation category" in districts where the final results for the FPTP seats have been determined (and since there are more than one FPTP seat per district that is going to take time).

The Election Commission plans to complete the counting of PR votes within "the next 7-10 days".

So far Nepali Congress is ahead in the PR count, but that is almost certainly a coincidence due to the small sample.

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Looks like NC will only win one of the 37 mountain/hill constituencies from the first phase (Rasuwa). The Left Alliance completely dominates in the highland. Already talk about reform of the part, change of leadership etc. But the leadership claim PR gains will make up for the lost FPTP seats, though that seems unlikely.

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The count is now under way in 162 of 165 constituencies, and 41 have been decided. 

Won (43):

CPN-UML 24
Maoist Centre 11
Nepali Congress 6
Others 2


Leading (119):

CPN-UML 56
Maoist Centre 22
Nepali Congress 21
Others 20

[The Bishop]

"Maoist Centre" - that will makes the heads of some explode

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Dec 9, 2017 11:27:05 GMT The Bishop said:

"Maoist Centre" - that will makes the heads of some explode

Nepalese Communists use centre for the main party within a tradition, the "centre of gravity" so to speak.