neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Feb 3, 2018 17:54:33 GMT
Well indeed. And that points to a bigger malaise in Welsh politics: it simply isn't competitive. The Lib Dems aren't going anywhere for at least another cycle, the Greens are nowhere, UKIP rode in on a populist wave but will be out next time, Plaid don't cut the mustard where they need to and anyway if you want a left wing party you might as well vote Labour and the Conservatives can't do it for all sorts of reasons. The Conservatives can't really fill the UKIP gap either. So you end up with a situation like those councils that have had a dominant party for years and years where the ruling group divides against itself and its local branches and members bicker about nothing. Local government electoral reform might help actually: if Labour have to work to win elections in places like my godforsaken hometown it might sharpen things up. Depressing stuff and actually rather an indictment of my party in the circs. Indeed- if you're into pavement politics then you should really be on a roll in Wales right now.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 3, 2018 19:08:06 GMT
Depressing stuff and actually rather an indictment of my party in the circs. Yes. It looked as if the Conservatives were going to break Labour’s dominance in Wales last year but it came to nothing. It's really easy. if you don't want one party (whatever it is) to be in power in one area(wherever that is) for long periods of time you need to change the electoral system - that doesn't guarantee wholesale change but it is the biggest nudge you can give it. The Conservative party don't want to do this and probably never will .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2018 19:38:46 GMT
Yes. It looked as if the Conservatives were going to break Labour’s dominance in Wales last year but it came to nothing. It's really easy. if you don't want one party (whatever it is) to be in power in one area(wherever that is) for long periods of time you need to change the electoral system - that doesn't guarantee wholesale change but it is the biggest nudge you can give it. The Conservative party don't want to do this and probably never will . No but look how much they've benefitted from it in Scotland. They have of course done well out of FPTP at Westminster in 2017 but would've done better with a proportional system. I do like the Scottish system for Holyrood because it retains the constituency link but also has a proportional element. The Conservatives could have a lot more representation in northern cities like Newcastle and Sheffield if the Scottish system was used. Look at how well the Tories did in Glasgow and Edinburgh.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 3, 2018 21:05:42 GMT
It's really easy. if you don't want one party (whatever it is) to be in power in one area(wherever that is) for long periods of time you need to change the electoral system - that doesn't guarantee wholesale change but it is the biggest nudge you can give it. The Conservative party don't want to do this and probably never will . No but look how much they've benefitted from it in Scotland. They have of course done well out of FPTP at Westminster in 2017 but would've done better with a proportional system. I do like the Scottish system for Holyrood because it retains the constituency link but also has a proportional element. The Conservatives could have a lot more representation in northern cities like Newcastle and Sheffield if the Scottish system was used. Look at how well the Tories did in Glasgow and Edinburgh. Yes, absolutely correct on all counts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2018 21:14:53 GMT
These are all good reasons for Conservatives for Electoral Reform and while the Tories have backed Supplementary Vote for mayoralty and PCC elections but PR and hybrids are a no go
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Feb 4, 2018 1:47:14 GMT
They have of course done well out of FPTP at Westminster in 2017 but would've done better with a proportional system. Are you speaking solely about Scotland here? Because they got 49% of the seats for little over 42% of the vote last May - I don't think that's likely.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2018 1:53:07 GMT
They have of course done well out of FPTP at Westminster in 2017 but would've done better with a proportional system. Are you speaking solely about Scotland here? Because they got 49% of the seats for little over 42% of the vote last May - I don't think that's likely. Yes.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 6, 2018 16:41:51 GMT
This seat was the first to declare in 2016 and did so just after 02:15.
During the verification stage in 2016 counters had to separate the two ballots and verify the total number for both the constituency and regional elections before moving on to the counting - something that obviously doesn't need to be done tonight.
The electorate is significantly below both the Welsh and UK averages and I don't see anything to indicate a significantly higher turnout than before.
I would imagine the result will be known between midnight and 1am tomorrow.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2018 19:19:47 GMT
Britain Elects are saying that the turnout is "obscenely low".
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 6, 2018 21:22:08 GMT
This seat don't forget has had the lowest turnout in three of the five Assembly elections to date (1999, 2003 and 2016). The highest the turnout has ever been was 35.5%.
The area itself isn't politically apathetic, the turnout in last years general was 71%.
Despite the high profile reason for this by-election the contest itself seems to be very very low key.
I was talking to a friend in the Labour Party today and he said no one he knows (in South Wales) knows anything about Jack Sargent, other than who is father was. They know nothing about his politics, abilities, interests or intentions.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2018 21:26:28 GMT
I've got a nasty feeling about this one. No particular reason or justification, but this has all the hallmarks of a repeat of Pallion.
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Post by lancastrian on Feb 6, 2018 21:47:00 GMT
This may be an assembly few people in Flintshire care about, but a by-election for a whole constituency is a very different thing to a local council by-election.
There may be little enthusiasm for Labour in the circumstances, but I think we'd have heard about it if there was any for anyone else.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Feb 6, 2018 21:57:55 GMT
I didn’t even realise this was happening today.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 6, 2018 21:59:52 GMT
Anyone know if there is TV coverage?
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Feb 6, 2018 22:02:03 GMT
Polling stations should be closing around about now... Anyone know if there is TV coverage? Unsure. Right now I'm just looking at the North Wales Daily Post's Live Feed*. * Some form of Ad/Tracker blocker is recommended for this particular site...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 6, 2018 22:10:25 GMT
Anyone know if there is TV coverage? There's not
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 6, 2018 22:12:13 GMT
Remind me again why this is polling on a Tuesday?
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Feb 6, 2018 22:13:10 GMT
Anyone know if there is TV coverage? There's not Dim syndod*... * Blame Google translate if I got that one wrong...
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 6, 2018 22:14:21 GMT
Remind me again why this is polling on a Tuesday? Because the National Assembly has a rule that byelections must be held within three months of the vacancy arising, and tomorrow is three months after Carl Sargeant died.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 6, 2018 22:23:55 GMT
BBC are reporting a postal vote turn out of 61% which is apparently lower than the PV turnout in 2016.
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