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Post by Penddu on Jan 4, 2018 8:22:53 GMT
I am not sure how this will work out for Labour....will he toe the party line or will he go off-piste and vote for what he believes in...
But now guaranteed a comfortable win.
And UKIP can now save face by not standing and do not have to explain why their credible vote share last year has evaporated.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 8:57:38 GMT
The Conservatives ought to get a boost without UKIP standing:
Maybe something like this:
LAB 48
CON 35
PC 15
LD 1
GRN 1
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 4, 2018 9:13:01 GMT
The Greens are selecting this week too.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 4, 2018 10:06:38 GMT
That's just silly. He was active in the party and his Dad died in tragic circumstances. He wants to continue his good work. How can you complain about a young local candidate born and brought up in Connah's Quay selected on first ballot by a clear majority? I was clearly referring to the chunk of the 150 members that won’t turn up for regular meetings and campaigns, but are happy to make time when they get to crown the new AM. @conservativeestimate sending out mixed messages I see! Always been the same....but I do think that the one thing members should get for their money is the right to choose their leader and representative |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 4, 2018 10:12:57 GMT
He is standing for Alyn and Deeside. I know, let's have a smooth talking barrister from London parachuted in instead. Wouldn't want any nasty working class people with rough accents now, would we? That's the point, the parachuted barristers from London are the masters of repeating the name of the constituency around 100 times immediately after being selected. Because that's the only thing they know. And if you are Chris Bryant, you can manage to randomly name the Rhondda in every occasion you open your month for the rest of your life but this requires extra skills. Only Chris Bryant doesn't fit that category at all....he used to be a vicar and comes from South Wales originally. He certainly didn't expect to be selected for Rhondda! He isn't of the same wing of the party as me but like Stephen Twigg it is accepted that he is a very good "constituency MP" The candidate just looked nervous. Most would be given the circumstances |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 4, 2018 11:20:17 GMT
And it had the lowest turnout in 2003 - of 24.9% (which is probably without checking the lowest turn out of all seats at all five elections to date).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 4, 2018 11:51:54 GMT
People that only turn up when there’s real power at stake frustrate me. Presumably no one turned up for this, then. Oooh, saucer of milk sir? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 4, 2018 11:53:59 GMT
The turnout at this by-election will be interesting. It's a border area that has never been particularly keen on the Assembly, and the highest turnout in the constituency out of all of the Assembly elections to date was only 37%. Alyn and Deeside was the constituency with the lowest turnout in 1999, 2003 and 2016 (was Swansea East in 2007 and 2011), For the record, the highest were: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (1999, 2007) Ynys Mon (2003) Brecon and Radnorshire (2011) Ceredigion (2016) |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 4, 2018 13:33:10 GMT
The turnout at this by-election will be interesting. It's a border area that has never been particularly keen on the Assembly, and the highest turnout in the constituency out of all of the Assembly elections to date was only 37%. Alyn and Deeside was the constituency with the lowest turnout in 1999, 2003 and 2016 (was Swansea East in 2007 and 2011), For the record, the highest were: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (1999, 2007) Ynys Mon (2003) Brecon and Radnorshire (2011) Ceredigion (2016) It's a very "un-Welsh" part of Wales. Lots of Everton supporters and Liverpool is certainly the destination for a day out shopping. I'd be interested to know how many residents have never been to Cardiff |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 13:44:27 GMT
Alyn and Deeside was the constituency with the lowest turnout in 1999, 2003 and 2016 (was Swansea East in 2007 and 2011), For the record, the highest were: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (1999, 2007) Ynys Mon (2003) Brecon and Radnorshire (2011) Ceredigion (2016) It's a very "un-Welsh" part of Wales. Lots of Everton supporters and Liverpool is certainly the destination for a day out shopping. I'd be interested to know how many residents have never been to Cardiff Yes. I also notice that Alyn & Deeside and Delyn saw swings to Labour in 2015 while the rest of North Wales swung away from the party. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 4, 2018 14:02:07 GMT
Alyn and Deeside was the constituency with the lowest turnout in 1999, 2003 and 2016 (was Swansea East in 2007 and 2011), For the record, the highest were: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (1999, 2007) Ynys Mon (2003) Brecon and Radnorshire (2011) Ceredigion (2016) It's a very "un-Welsh" part of Wales. Lots of Everton supporters and Liverpool is certainly the destination for a day out shopping. I'd be interested to know how many residents have never been to Cardiff Carl Sargent certainly hadn't until he became a candidate. Regarding where the area looks towards I completely agree it's Liverpool not Cardiff - despite the Welsh Government pouring money into a north-south rail service. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 14:51:28 GMT
We should both improve our vote shares, perhaps the more interesting question is what of Plaid?
Labour - 55
Conservative - 27
Plaid - 11
Lib Dem - 6
Greens - 1
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 4, 2018 18:41:37 GMT
I read not many years ago that this is the only constituency in Wales where a majority of the population was not born in Wales - mostly England. Although some think that Monmouth is the most English constituency in Wales. Don't know if that statistic still stands though. Isn't that though presumably because the nearest local hospital is in Chester, rather than there being some massive in-migration of English people |
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Post by Huw Pritchard on Jan 4, 2018 21:05:56 GMT
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Post by pembspolitic on Jan 4, 2018 22:48:17 GMT
I read not many years ago that this is the only constituency in Wales where a majority of the population was not born in Wales - mostly England. Although some think that Monmouth is the most English constituency in Wales. Don't know if that statistic still stands though. Isn't that though presumably because the nearest local hospital is in Chester, rather than there being some massive in-migration of English people The 2011 Census shows that the Country of Birth for Alyn & Deeside: 51.3% - Born in England 42.3% - Born in Wales in terms of National Identity: 37.6% - Claim some English Identity 34.7% - Claim some Welsh Identity So it's probably somewhat to do with the hospital, but more so with the latter - as with a lot of of North Wales (especially along the coast) that has seen a large in-migration of English people. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 4, 2018 23:08:35 GMT
Why would they move there though? Maybe generations ago when there were jobs at the steel works - but now? I can understand people from the cities of NW England moving to Rhyl or Colwyn Bay, but this seat isn't on the coast, so it would hardly attract retirees or benefit tourists. I suppose it could serve as a cheap commuter belt for Chester and further afield ?
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 5, 2018 0:14:25 GMT
Why would they move there though? Maybe generations ago when there were jobs at the steel works - but now? I can understand people from the cities of NW England moving to Rhyl or Colwyn Bay, but this seat isn't on the coast, so it would hardly attract retirees or benefit tourists. I suppose it could serve as a cheap commuter belt for Chester and further afield ? As well as some commuting to Chester (Saltney is part of the Chester built-up area) there is a big and well-paying Airbus factory at Broughton and industrial estates all over the seat. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 11, 2018 11:33:45 GMT
Five candidates: Conservative....Sarah Atherton Plaid Cymru.....Carrie Harper Lib Dem...........Donna Lalek Green..............Duncan Rees Labour.............Jack Sargent SOPN: www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Council-Democracy/SOPN-NOP-A-D.pdfLib Dem & Labour have addresses in Alyn & Deeside, Conservative & Plaid in Wrexham and Green in Clwyd South. All local enough. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jan 11, 2018 14:50:50 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 11, 2018 22:01:49 GMT
Five candidates: Conservative....Sarah Atherton Plaid Cymru.....Carrie Harper Lib Dem...........Donna Lalek Green..............Duncan Rees Labour.............Jack Sargent SOPN: www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Council-Democracy/SOPN-NOP-A-D.pdfLib Dem & Labour have addresses in Alyn & Deeside, Conservative & Plaid in Wrexham and Green in Clwyd South. All local enough. Not if you're the Labour or Lib Dem Agents ...  |
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