Catalan Regional Election, 2017

[hedgehog]

Independence parties look set for victory, looks very dodgy for Madrid now if they continue to press charges against Catalan leaders.

Whats the likely next move ?

[Foggy]

Dec 21, 2017 21:54:28 GMT dizz said:

Separatist parties presently on 70 of 135 seats & hard to see them not getting a majority of at least 68.

That will certainly be a disappointment to centralising forces in Madrid. Within those parties, it looks like JxCat might just finish ahead of the ERC which would also be a huge blow to the left compared to what the polls had predicted. Puigdemont seems to have something of a personal vote even from Brussels, especially in his home province of Girona. 

[Sibboleth]

Ah, a defeat for both camps it is then. And I guess a major blow to how certain people here view the Catalan question, but then given the ability of such people to ignore irritating realities... probably not.

[lancastrian]

Dec 21, 2017 21:59:29 GMT Foggy said:

Dec 21, 2017 21:54:28 GMT dizz said:

Separatist parties presently on 70 of 135 seats & hard to see them not getting a majority of at least 68.

That will certainly be a disappointment to centralising forces in Madrid. Within those parties, it looks like JxCat might just finish ahead of the ERC which would also be a huge blow to the left compared to what the polls had predicted. Puigdemont seems to have something of a personal vote even from Brussels, especially in his home province of Girona. 

The separatists only have 47% of the vote though. C's clearly have the right to form the government as the biggest party.

[mrpastelito]

Dec 21, 2017 22:57:08 GMT lancastrian said:

C's clearly have the right to form the government as the biggest party.

Well good luck with that.

[Adam in Stroud]

Dec 21, 2017 22:23:51 GMT Sibboleth said:

Ah, a defeat for both camps it is then. And I guess a major blow to how certain people here view the Catalan question, but then given the ability of such people to ignore irritating realities... probably not.

A victory for common sense, then perhaps, given the behaviour of both sides?

I hope the result will be a willingness to get out of the trenches and try talking to each other. 

[mboy]

It's not a great result, but it's good enough. Separatist vote down a touch, unionist vote up, Citizens largest party. Importantly, separatists didn't get a majority of votes (again) and UDI is dead. A shame that JxC came second though, as it means pratt Piugdemont may try to take the presidency again.

[mboy]

Dec 21, 2017 23:04:18 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

The composition of the new Catalan Parliament:

CATALAN NATIONALIST (70):
JxC 34 (+3)
ERC 32 (+6)
CUP 4 (-6)

SPANISH UNIONIST (57):
C's 37 (+12)
PSC 17 (+1)
PP 3 (-8)

NEUTRAL/PRO-REFERENDUM (8):
CeC 8 (-3)

Those seat changes as up to +5! Must be an error in there...

[Dan]

Citizens - 37 seats (+12) 25.4%
Together for Catalonia - 34 seats (+3) 21.7%
Republican Left of Catalonia/Catalonia Yes - 32 seats (+6) 21.4%
Socialist Party of Catalonia - 17 seats (+1) 13.9%
Catalonia-In Common We Can - 8 seats (-3) 7.4%
Popular Unity Candidacy/Constituent Call - 4 seats (-6) 4.4%
People's Party of Catalonia - 3 seats (-8) 4.2%

[Foggy]

Dec 21, 2017 23:04:18 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

The composition of the new Catalan Parliament:

CATALAN NATIONALIST (70):
JxC 34 (new)
ERC 32 (new)
CUP 4 (-6)

SPANISH UNIONIST (57):
C's 37 (+12)
PSC 17 (+1)
PP 3 (-8)

NEUTRAL/PRO-REFERENDUM (8):
CeC 8 (-3)

I think, in the style of the pop charts, we can safely refer to the ERC as a re-entry here rather than a new party.

The confusion over how to split the JxSí seats from the previous Parliament explains why the gains and losses might not add up.

Dec 21, 2017 23:22:05 GMT mboy said:

It's not a great result, but it's good enough. Separatist vote down a touch, unionist vote up, Citizens largest party. Importantly, separatists didn't get a majority of votes (again) and UDI is dead. A shame that JxC came second though, as it means pratt Piugdemont may try to take the presidency again.

It's a pity and quite a surprise, really. This was the best chance the ERC have ever had (and possibly will ever have) at topping the poll, or at least becoming the largest catalanista party... and yet they've still managed to fall behind a list that's an empty vehicle for an exiled President propped up by the shell of a defunct and corrupt party. They also falied to finish first in any province, which is astonishing.

That's an even worse result for the PP though. Albiol will not be able to form an official group in the legislature. That's a total embarrassment. A lot of potential CUP voters must've broken for JxCat at the last moment too, which is most peculiar.

As usual for a Spanish election, we have the overseas votes to be counted in a couple of days which could flip a seat or two (normally towards the left). Turnout was at 81% last I checked, so there's no way anyone can call into doubt the legitimacy of what the voters have expressed.

Madrid digging its heels in and carrying on with the imposition of direct rule or ordering more new elections until Catalans vote the 'correct' way would not be a wise tactic from here. Unfortunately they're going to have to let another secessionist administration form and then start talks about Catalonia's relationship with the central Spanish state, with no preconditions and nothing off the table. I can't see that happening though. 

[Sibboleth]

The stunning success of C's is a sign of hardening positions on the other side of the divide. It's not a surprise, but is important.

[jimboo2017]

Dec 21, 2017 23:55:10 GMT Sibboleth said:

The stunning success of C's is a sign of hardening positions on the other side of the divide. It's not a surprise, but is important.

So the Austerity Unionists pipped the Austerity Separatists or am reading this wrong

[Foggy]

Dec 22, 2017 0:02:49 GMT jimboo2017 said:

Dec 21, 2017 23:55:10 GMT Sibboleth said:

The stunning success of C's is a sign of hardening positions on the other side of the divide. It's not a surprise, but is important.

So the Austerity Unionists pipped the Austerity Separatists or am reading this wrong

I think you aren't. One of the consequences of making the main divide in Catalan politics unionist/separatist rather than left/right is that both sides can get away with lies, further corruption and generally continuing to shaft ordinary people. 

In the poll on this thread I've voted for the second option. Had I actually been living in Catalonia I'd have voted for PACMA (who appear to have come eighth in the popular vote). 

[jimboo2017]

Dec 21, 2017 22:23:51 GMT Sibboleth said:

Ah, a defeat for both camps it is then. And I guess a major blow to how certain people here view the Catalan question, but then given the ability of such people to ignore irritating realities... probably not.

Man it horrendous out here in SNP twitter land, Glorious victory for Nationalism, send facts quick.
1. What are CUP current demands,
2. What if Puigdemont stays in exile

[iain]

So PSC are PSOE and CeC are Podemos?

[Foggy]

Dec 22, 2017 0:40:27 GMT iain said:

So PSC are PSOE and CeC are Podemos?

The PSOE has been branded as the Partit dels Socialists de Catalunya in Catalonia for decades now. The latter name is far more prominent and this is a successful arrangement. The Catalan branch has sensibly advocated a federal Spain for a while, which the central party is only just coming round to.

What Podemos and its 'confluences' choose to call themselves from region to region and from one election to the next is needlessly complicated, but the short answer to your second question would be yes.

[Deleted]

Dec 22, 2017 0:40:27 GMT iain said:

So (..) CeC are Podemos?

Partly, but its a somewhat broader alliance incl. Greens and smaller leftist parties with the mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau as the central figure.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalunya_en_Comú

[jimboo2017]

Separatists won the majority of Seats but with only 48% of vote

love it

[jamie]

Neither really 'won', but gone for option 2 as there was a real chance the pro-independence parties could lose their majority but didn't so it's a relative victory for them.

[mrpastelito]

Dec 22, 2017 0:58:47 GMT jamie said:

Neither really 'won', but gone for option 2 as there was a real chance the pro-independence parties could lose their majority but didn't so it's a relative victory for them.

Well what there is is a clear majority of votes and seats for a referendum, albeit not for independence.