European Parliament Election 2019

[Tony Otim]

Some country by country previews.

Germany - 96 seats

Whether or not the UK MEPs are elected, Germany will remain with 96 MEPs. Plans to introduce a minimum vote threshold have also been scrapped, so the abundance of micro-parties could well continue.

2014 result:
CDU/CSU (EPP) 34 seats (35.4%)
SPD (PES) 27 seats (27.3%)
Greens (G-EFA) 11 seats (10.7%)
Linke (GUE-NGL) 7 seats (7.4%)
AfD (ECR*^) 7 seats (7.0%)
FDP (ALDE) 3 seats (3.4%)
Freie Wahler (ALDE*) 1 seat (1.5%)
Pirates (G-EFA*) 1 seat (1.5%)
Tierschutzpartei (GUE-NGL*) 1 seat (1.3%)
NPD (Non-inscrits) 1 seat (1.0%)
Familie (ECR*) 1 seat (0.7%)
ODP (Ecological Democratic Party) (G-EFA*) 1 seat (0.6%)
Die Partei (Non-inscrit) 1 seat (0.6%)

* Joined grouping post-election
^ Since 2014, the AfD grouping has split - 1 remains in AfD now aligned to EFDD, 5 remain in the ECR in the LKR (Liberal Conservative Reformers, although one of the 5 is now independent) and 1 is in the ENF with Die Blaue Partei.

Polls would indicate SPD likely to be main losers with CDU/CSU also possibly down a few and Greens, AfD and FDP picking up seats

[Devil Wincarnate]

Some polls show the FW and Die PARTEI scoring nearly double from last time out.

EDIT- The Varoufakis Vanity Gang is going nowhere.  Try to stifle your laughter.

[Foggy]

Apr 16, 2019 12:17:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

Freie Wähler (ALDE*) 1 seat (1.5%)
Tierschutzpartei (GUE-NGL*) 1 seat (1.3%)
ÖDP (Ecological Democratic Party) (G-EFA*) 1 seat (0.6%)
Die PARTEI (Non-inscrit) 1 seat (0.6%)

An umlaut is not an optional decoration! Tierschutzpartei means 'Animal Protection Party'. 

Looking forward to the previews for the countries about whose politics I know little. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Speaking of Varoufakis, his grouping consists of a bizarre mix of parties, most of which he tries to portray as deeply important.  His own party in Greece is polling so badly that it isn't showing up in polls as a separate option.  His partners in Germany, where he is running, are seriously minor.  Austria, likewise.  In Portugal, a splinter from the Left Bloc which is probably a personality clash turned into a party.
And
Hamon is running, though, so I can see him becoming the leading light.  And possibly the only light other than the group in Italy under Grasso.  Both will do ok, and Varoufakis will claim the credit.

[clyde1998]

Apr 7, 2019 23:38:02 GMT ClevelandYorks said:

Mar 24, 2019 12:44:38 GMT Georg Ebner said:

FPÖ's Vilimsky - one of the architects of ENF - is dreaming of a fusion of all 3 right factions (joined by Orban).

How likely is this to happen? Obviously there are significant areas of disagreement such as Russia, but a bloc made up of large parts of the ENF, EFDD and ECR would be huge and present a united front against the EU establishment. This would undoubtedly be hugely beneficial to the Eurosceptic cause and possibly the only thing that can bring about serious reform

If you got the present MEPs from all these parties to merge into a single group, you'd have 174 MEPs (ie. the third largest group, behind PES by thirteen seats). With the upcoming election, that 'bloc' may be large enough to be the largest single grouping.

I really cannot see enough parties joining a single block to make it worthwhile though, especially as the moderate eurosceptics in the ECR wouldn't necessarily want to be in the same grouping as members of the EFDD and ENF. A merger of the EFDD and ENF is probably the most plausible post-election option, the total of both is currently 78 seats, although I think you'd need about 120 MEPs for the merger or the two combined to really cause the EU establishment to probably worry enough to bring about wholesale reform.

[ClevelandYorks]

Apr 16, 2019 17:27:50 GMT clyde1998 said:

If you got the present MEPs from all these parties to merge into a single group, you'd have 174 MEPs (ie. the third largest group, behind PES by thirteen seats). With the upcoming election, that 'bloc' may be large enough to be the largest single grouping.

I really cannot see enough parties joining a single block to make it worthwhile though, especially as the moderate eurosceptics in the ECR wouldn't necessarily want to be in the same grouping as members of the EFDD and ENF. A merger of the EFDD and ENF is probably the most plausible post-election option, the total of both is currently 78 seats, although I think you'd need about 120 MEPs for the merger or the two combined to really cause the EU establishment to probably worry enough to bring about wholesale reform.

Yes I mostly agree with that, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a wholesale reshaping of the political groups post-election or even in the next few years – after all, Macron is to form his own group, the Left group is in disarray with Melenchon and Iglesias refusing to sit in a party with Syriza and if Brexit eventually happens it will leave the ECR and EFDD a lot smaller.  Ideally (from his perspective), a complete restructure would allow Salvini to cherry-pick sympathetic parties to form a kind of 'national conservative' group that monopolises the Eurosceptic right whilst reducing the existing groups to mere rumps, but easier said than done!

[Toylyyev]

Luxembourg - 6 seats

2014 result:

3 seats ±0 37,65% +6,29%     EVP     Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei  
1 seat  ±0 15,01% -1,82%  Gréng/EFA  Déi Gréng    
1 seat  ±0 14,77% -3,89%     ALDE    Demokratesch Partei  
1 seat  ±0 11,75% -7,73%     SPE     Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei  

Single constituency, voting is a legal obligation for citizens aged between 18 and 75, and seats still seem to be attributed using D'Hondt method. The 2018 Chamberwale result would have returned the same seat repartition with the CSPP keeping their third by about a margin of 1%. For it to fall either one of the three other listed parties would have to reach 2/3 of their vote share or a fourth reach half their share. The contenders to the latter threshold would be the parties ranked 5 to 7 in 2018, whereby my first favourite would be the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg.

There is no polling that i am aware of.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 16, 2019 21:23:31 GMT Toylyyev said:

Luxembourg - 6 seats

2014 result:

3 seats ±0 37,65% +6,29%     EVP     Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei  
1 seat  ±0 15,01% -1,82%  Gréng/EFA  Déi Gréng    
1 seat  ±0 14,77% -3,89%     ALDE    Demokratesch Partei  
1 seat  ±0 11,75% -7,73%     SPE     Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei  

Single constituency, voting is a legal obligation for citizens aged between 18 and 75, and seats still seem to be attributed using D'Hondt method. The 2018 Chamberwale result would have returned the same seat repartition with the CSPP keeping their third by about a margin of 1%. For it to fall either one of the three other listed parties would have to reach 2/3 of their vote share or a fourth reach half their share. The contenders to the latter threshold would be the parties ranked 5 to 7 in 2018, whereby my first favourite would be the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg.

There is no polling that i am aware of.

I can't find any polling either, but wouldn't be surprised if the ADR (who are ECR linked) managed to get the final seat from CSV.

[Tony Otim]

France

All change - the voting system's changed, half of the parties have changed name and half of the MEPs elected last time have changed party or grouping.

Results from 2014:

Front National (FN)	(ENF)	24.9%	24 seats	Row 1 column 5
UMP	(EPP)	20.8%	20 seats	Row 2 column 5
PS + PRG	(S&D)	14.0%	13 seats	(12 PS, 1 PRG (Parti Radical de Gauche)
MoDem & UDI	(ALDE)	9.9%	7 seats	(4 MoDem, 1 New Centre, 1 AC (Centrist Alliance), 1 PR (Parti Radical))
EELV	(G-EFA)	9.0%	6 seats
Front Gauche (FG)	(GUE/NGL)	6.6%	4 seats	(1 PCF (Communist), 1 PG (Left), 1 unaffiliated, 1 AO-M (Overseas Alliance)

Currently these 74 MEPS sit in the following Groupings:

EPP - 20 (16 LR (Les Republicains, new name for UMP), 2 Agir (la droite constructive - a breakaway from LR/UMP) and 2 Divers Droite)
ENF - 15 (14 RN (Rassemblement National, new name for FN), 1 RBM )
S&D - 12 (7 PS, 3 Generation.s (Hamon's breakaway), 1 LREM (Macron's lot), 1 PRG)
ALDE - 7 (2 MoDem, 2 RM, 1 UDI, 1 LREM, 1 Generation Citoyens)
G-EFA- 6 (5 EELV, 1 Divers Ecologie)
EFDD - 6 (2 DLF (Debout la France, formerly Debout La Republique, Dupont-Aignan's lot), 2 LP (Les Patriots, FN splinter), 1 Les France Libres, 1 Independents (all are ex-FN))
GUE-NGL - 5 (2 PCF, 1 FG, 1 AO-M, 1 Mouvement Republicain et Citoyen)
Non- Incrits - 3 (1 RN, 1 Ind and 1 Comites Jeanne)

For 2019, France is moving from regional constituencies to a national list with a 5% threshold. MoDem have continued their alliance with Macron's En Marche (LREM) but UDI are going their own way meaning a likely wipeout. The Communists are also going their own way from Melanchon's France Insoumise (the new Front Gauche). Whilst the UK remains France stays on 74 seats, but will gain an extra 5 if the UK leaves.

Polling indicates that it will be tight between LREM and RN for first place, both should get about 20ish seats. LR look like coming third, losing a handful of seats compared to 2014.  EELV and FI will almost certainly make the quota and maybe gain 1 or 2 seats compared to 2014, whilst PS look like just scraping in with a few seats, whilst Hamon's Generation.s look like missing out. DLF are right on the cusp in most polls, whether they make it or not could affect the seat numbers for the parties above.

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 17, 2019 20:07:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

France

All change - the voting system's changed, half of the parties have changed name and half of the MEPs elected last time have changed party or grouping.

Results from 2014:

Front National (FN)	(ENF)	24.9%	24 seats	Row 1 column 5
UMP	(EPP)	20.8%	20 seats	Row 2 column 5
PS + PRG	(S&D)	14.0%	13 seats	(12 PS, 1 PRG (Parti Radical de Gauche)
MoDem & UDI	(ALDE)	9.9%	7 seats	(4 MoDem, 1 New Centre, 1 AC (Centrist Alliance), 1 PR (Parti Radical))
EELV	(G-EFA)	9.0%	6 seats
Front Gauche (FG)	(GUE/NGL)	6.6%	4 seats	(1 PCF (Communist), 1 PG (Left), 1 unaffiliated, 1 AO-M (Overseas Alliance)

Currently these 74 MEPS sit in the following Groupings:

EPP - 20 (16 LR (Les Republicains, new name for UMP), 2 Agir (la droite constructive - a breakaway from LR/UMP) and 2 Divers Droite)
ENF - 15 (14 RN (Rassemblement National, new name for FN), 1 RBM )
S&D - 12 (7 PS, 3 Generation.s (Hamon's breakaway), 1 LREM (Macron's lot), 1 PRG)
ALDE - 7 (2 MoDem, 2 RM, 1 UDI, 1 LREM, 1 Generation Citoyens)
G-EFA- 6 (5 EELV, 1 Divers Ecologie)
EFDD - 6 (2 DLF (Debout la France, formerly Debout La Republique, Dupont-Aignan's lot), 2 LP (Les Patriots, FN splinter), 1 Les France Libres, 1 Independents (all are ex-FN))
GUE-NGL - 5 (2 PCF, 1 FG, 1 AO-M, 1 Mouvement Republicain et Citoyen)
Non- Incrits - 3 (1 RN, 1 Ind and 1 Comites Jeanne)

For 2019, France is moving from regional constituencies to a national list with a 5% threshold. MoDem have continued their alliance with Macron's En Marche (LREM) but UDI are going their own way meaning a likely wipeout. The Communists are also going their own way from Melanchon's France Insoumise (the new Front Gauche). Whilst the UK remains France stays on 74 seats, but will gain an extra 5 if the UK leaves.

Polling indicates that it will be tight between LREM and RN for first place, both should get about 20ish seats. LR look like coming third, losing a handful of seats compared to 2014.  EELV and FI will almost certainly make the quota and maybe gain 1 or 2 seats compared to 2014, whilst PS look like just scraping in with a few seats, whilst Hamon's Generation.s look like missing out. DLF are right on the cusp in most polls, whether they make it or not could affect the seat numbers for the parties above.

Who is "RM" (sitting in ALDE)?

[AdminSTB]

Apr 17, 2019 20:07:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

France

All change - the voting system's changed, half of the parties have changed name and half of the MEPs elected last time have changed party or grouping.

Apart from the voting system bit, that sounds like us in the UK...

[Tony Otim]

Apr 17, 2019 20:29:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Apr 17, 2019 20:07:51 GMT Tony Otim said:

France

All change - the voting system's changed, half of the parties have changed name and half of the MEPs elected last time have changed party or grouping.

Results from 2014:

Front National (FN)	(ENF)	24.9%	24 seats	Row 1 column 5
UMP	(EPP)	20.8%	20 seats	Row 2 column 5
PS + PRG	(S&D)	14.0%	13 seats	(12 PS, 1 PRG (Parti Radical de Gauche)
MoDem & UDI	(ALDE)	9.9%	7 seats	(4 MoDem, 1 New Centre, 1 AC (Centrist Alliance), 1 PR (Parti Radical))
EELV	(G-EFA)	9.0%	6 seats
Front Gauche (FG)	(GUE/NGL)	6.6%	4 seats	(1 PCF (Communist), 1 PG (Left), 1 unaffiliated, 1 AO-M (Overseas Alliance)

Currently these 74 MEPS sit in the following Groupings:

EPP - 20 (16 LR (Les Republicains, new name for UMP), 2 Agir (la droite constructive - a breakaway from LR/UMP) and 2 Divers Droite)
ENF - 15 (14 RN (Rassemblement National, new name for FN), 1 RBM )
S&D - 12 (7 PS, 3 Generation.s (Hamon's breakaway), 1 LREM (Macron's lot), 1 PRG)
ALDE - 7 (2 MoDem, 2 RM, 1 UDI, 1 LREM, 1 Generation Citoyens)
G-EFA- 6 (5 EELV, 1 Divers Ecologie)
EFDD - 6 (2 DLF (Debout la France, formerly Debout La Republique, Dupont-Aignan's lot), 2 LP (Les Patriots, FN splinter), 1 Les France Libres, 1 Independents (all are ex-FN))
GUE-NGL - 5 (2 PCF, 1 FG, 1 AO-M, 1 Mouvement Republicain et Citoyen)
Non- Incrits - 3 (1 RN, 1 Ind and 1 Comites Jeanne)

For 2019, France is moving from regional constituencies to a national list with a 5% threshold. MoDem have continued their alliance with Macron's En Marche (LREM) but UDI are going their own way meaning a likely wipeout. The Communists are also going their own way from Melanchon's France Insoumise (the new Front Gauche). Whilst the UK remains France stays on 74 seats, but will gain an extra 5 if the UK leaves.

Polling indicates that it will be tight between LREM and RN for first place, both should get about 20ish seats. LR look like coming third, losing a handful of seats compared to 2014.  EELV and FI will almost certainly make the quota and maybe gain 1 or 2 seats compared to 2014, whilst PS look like just scraping in with a few seats, whilst Hamon's Generation.s look like missing out. DLF are right on the cusp in most polls, whether they make it or not could affect the seat numbers for the parties above.

Who is "RM" (sitting in ALDE)?

Sorry - typo - should be MR - Mouvement Radical, merger of PR and PRG. Some of the ex-PRG then split away again in protest at possible alliance with LREM.

[andrea]

Apr 17, 2019 20:29:51 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Who is "RM" (sitting in ALDE)?

Mouvement Radical. Both elected in the L'Alternative • UDI-MoDem list in 2014.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Another wipeout for the PCF would be amusing. Useless party.

[Tony Otim]

Italy

Italy will have 73 MEPS until the UK leaves when it will gain another 3. There is 4% threshold although some exemptions for linguistic minorities.

2014 result:

PD	(S&D)	40.8%	31 seats
M5S	(EFDD)	21.2%	17 seats
FI	(EPP)	16.8%	13 seats
LN	(ENF)	6.2%	5 seats
NCD-UDC (New Centre Right)	(EPP)	4.4%	3 seats
AET (The Other Europe)	(GUE-NGL)	4.0%	3 seats

FdI (Brothers of Italy, ECR) got 3.6% just missing the threshold.

For 2019, NCD have disappeared, with the UDC bit joining with FI for the election. AET have been replaced by LS (the Left) and there will lists for EV (Green Europe - G-EFA) and MOre Europe(+E, ALDE).

Polls would show both PD and FI losing close to half their vote share, M5S more or less standing still or maybe creeping forward a little, with Lega (no longer Nord) leaping forward to well over 30% vote share and should top the poll. FdI look like making the threshold this time, but both +E and LS look like missing out and EV almost certainly will.

[greenchristian]

Apr 18, 2019 14:38:17 GMT Tony Otim said:

Italy

Italy will have 73 MEPS until the UK leaves when it will gain another 3. There is 4% threshold although some exemptions for linguistic minorities.

2014 result:

PD	(S&D)	40.8%	31 seats
M5S	(EFDD)	21.2%	17 seats
FI	(EPP)	16.8%	13 seats
LN	(ENF)	6.2%	5 seats
NCD-UDC (New Centre Right)	(EPP)	4.4%	3 seats
AET (The Other Europe)	(GUE-NGL)	4.0%	3 seats

FdI (Brothers of Italy, ECR) got 3.6% just missing the threshold.

For 2019, NDC have disappeared, with the UDC bit joining with FI for the election. AET have been replaced by LS (the Left) and there will lists for EV (Green Europe - G-EFA) and MOre Europe(+E, ALDE).

Polls would show both PD and FI losing close to half their vote share, M5S more or less standing still or maybe creeping forward a little, with Lega (no longer Nord) leaping forward to well over 30% vote share and should top the poll. FdI look like making the threshold this time, but both +E and LS look like missing out and EV almost certainly will.

Is that NCD (as in the table) or NDC (as in the write-up)?

[Tony Otim]

Apr 18, 2019 15:21:31 GMT greenchristian said:

Apr 18, 2019 14:38:17 GMT Tony Otim said:

Italy

Italy will have 73 MEPS until the UK leaves when it will gain another 3. There is 4% threshold although some exemptions for linguistic minorities.

2014 result:

PD	(S&D)	40.8%	31 seats
M5S	(EFDD)	21.2%	17 seats
FI	(EPP)	16.8%	13 seats
LN	(ENF)	6.2%	5 seats
NCD-UDC (New Centre Right)	(EPP)	4.4%	3 seats
AET (The Other Europe)	(GUE-NGL)	4.0%	3 seats

FdI (Brothers of Italy, ECR) got 3.6% just missing the threshold.

For 2019, NDC have disappeared, with the UDC bit joining with FI for the election. AET have been replaced by LS (the Left) and there will lists for EV (Green Europe - G-EFA) and MOre Europe(+E, ALDE).

Polls would show both PD and FI losing close to half their vote share, M5S more or less standing still or maybe creeping forward a little, with Lega (no longer Nord) leaping forward to well over 30% vote share and should top the poll. FdI look like making the threshold this time, but both +E and LS look like missing out and EV almost certainly will.

Is that NCD (as in the table) or NDC (as in the write-up)?

NCD (Nuovo Centro-destro) as in both

[Tony Otim]

Spain

Spain has 54 seats to elect to the European Parliament and will gain an additional 5 if and when the UK leaves.

2014 result:

PP	(EPP)	26.1%	16 seats
PSOE	(s&D)	23.0%	14 seats
IP (Plural Left alliance)	(GUE-NGL)	10.0%	6 seats
Podemos	(GUE-NGL)	8.0%	5 seats
UPyD	(ALDE)	6.5%	4 seats
CEU (Coalition for Europe - various regional parties)	(ALDE/EPP)	5.4%	3 seats
EPDD (Left for the Right to Decide - alliance of Catalan parties)	(G-EFA)	4.0%	2 seats

Cs	(ALDE)	3.2%	2 seats
LPD(The Peoples Decide - alliance of various regional parties)	(GUE-NGL)	2.1%	1 seat
PE (European Spring)	(G-EFA)	1.9%	1 seats

This time around there have been some changes in alliance. Podemos will be joined by United Left (formerly IP). UPyD have joined the Cs list. AR (Republics Now takes most of the parties formely in EPDD and LPD. Together (JuntsxCat is an alliance of Catalan nationalists). CES (Coalition for a Solidary Europe has a fairly similar make-up to the old CEU, whilst CxE (commitment for Europe) seems a fairly similar line-up to PE. (Equo are running both in CxE and the Podemos coalition). 

Polls are suggesting PSOE should come top, although maybe not increase their seats, PP look set to lose a few, with Cs and right-wing populists Vox looking to be the main gainers overall. Podemos may pick up 1 or 2. Most of the other alliances are looking at one or two tops with AR perhaps looking best placed at the moment and CES perhaps missing out altogether. There's also a chance that PACMA (Animalist Party against the mistreatment of Animals) may gain a seat or two for the first time.

[andrea]

New poll for Italy

Lega 36.9%
5 Stars 22.3%
PD 18.7%
Forza Italia 8.7%
Brothers of Italy 4.6%
___
+Europe 3%
Left 2.1%
Greens 1.3%

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 20, 2019 11:23:54 GMT andrea said:

New poll for Italy

Lega 36.9%
5 Stars 22.3%
PD 18.7%
Forza Italia 8.7%
Brothers of Italy 4.6%
___
+Europe 3%
Left 2.1%
Greens 1.3%

Has there already been any OpinionPoll with the Right above 50%?