European Parliament Election 2019

[Tony Otim]

Greece

Another one that will elect 21 MEPs regardless of Brexit.

2014 results:

Syriza	(GUE-NGL)	26.6%	6 seats
New Democracy (ND)	(EPP)	22.7%	5 seats
Golden Dawn	(none)	9.4%	3 seats
Elia (Olive Tree)*	(S&D)	8.0%	2 seats
To Potami (The River)	(S&D)	6.6%	2 seats
KKE (Communists)	(none)	6.1%	2 seats
ANEL (Independent Greeks)	(ECR)	3.5%	1 seat

* Mainly PASOK, with some minor allies

This year, PASOK's new alliance is called KINAL (Movement for Change - no laughing at the back there).

ND seem to have a strong lead in most polls and are looking at roughly doubling their representation, Syriza are holding about level with last time, with Kinal, KKE and Golden Dawn probably looking at a couple of seats each, followed by a whole host of parties who including To Potami and ANEL who don't look like making the cut according to the polls.

[Tony Otim]

Hungary

Another one that gets 21 MEPs regardless of Brexit

2014 Results:

Fidesz	(EPP)	51.5%	12 seats
Jobbik	(non-inscrits)	14.7%	3 seats
MSZP (Socialists)	(S&D)	10.9%	2 seats
DK (Democratic Coalition)	(S&D)*	9.8%	2 seats
E14 (Together) & PM (Dialogue for Hungary)	(G-EFA)*	7.3%	1 seat
LMP (Politics Can be Different)_	(G-EFA)	5.0%	1 seat

* Joined after the elections.

Fidesz were suspended by EPP in March this year following its more strident anti-immigrant stance and personal attacks on Juncker and Soros.
MSZP formed an alliance with PM for last year's Hungarian elections, which appears to be continuing for the Euros.

There are new parties in the form of Jobbik-splinter Our Home and MKKP (the  Hungarian two-tailed dog party), but both are polling around 2-3% and unlikely to win seats.  Momentum (centrists - I know, the irony, ALDE), however might claim a seat.

Fidesz' dominance looks more absolute with polling putting them around 60%. Jobbik could well be reduced to a single seat, with the others more or less standing still.


 

[Tony Otim]

Portugal

The final member of the 21MEPs regardless of Brexit club.

2014 results:

PS	(S&D)	31.5%	8 seats
AP (Alliance Portugal - PSD with CDS-PP (People's Party))	(EPP)	27.7%	7 seats (6&1)
CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition - Communist and Ecologist Parties)	(GUE-NGL/G-EFA)	12.7%	3 seats (3&0)
MPT (Earth Party)	(ALDE)	7.2%	2 seats
BE (Left Bloc)	(GUE-NGL)	4.6%	1 seat

MPT then moved to the EPP, but the party was declared insolvent at the end of last year.

AP is no more with PSD and CDS-PP running separately.

Most polling would put PS up a little on last time a maybe gaining an extra seat or two. PSD seem to at least be matching AP's score last time, again with possibly an additional seat or two, whilst CDS-PP seem to set to at least hold their one seat individually. CDU are down in the polls and look like losing at least one seat, but BE are up a bit and may possibly gain one.  The only other parties who might possibly sneak in are PAN (People Animals Nature - G-EFA) and Alianca (a PSD splinter), but in both cases it looks unlikely.

[Tony Otim]

Sweden

Sweden currently elects 20 MEPs but will gain an extra one in the event of Brexit

2014 results:

Social Democratic Party	(S&D)	24.2%	5 seats
Green	(G-EFA)	15.4%	4 seats
Moderate	(EPP)	13.7%	3 seats
Liberal People's Party	(ALDE)	9.9%	2 seats
Sweden Democrats	(EFDD)	9.7%	2 seats
Centre	(ALDE)	6.5%	1 seat
Left	(GUE-NGL)	6.3%	1 seat
Christian Democrats	(EPP)	5.9%	1 seat
Feminist Initiative	(S&D)	5.5%	1 seat

On current polling, the big gainers will be the Sweden Democrats, who look like doubling their representation, and the Christian Democrats who could more than double their vote share. The Feminists will almost certainly be gone, but the Liberals could also miss out as they are now polling under 4%. The Greens are also down, but have recovered from very low figures last year to be polling 10-12% and might only lose 1 or 2 seats. The rest are basically a bit up and down but fairly close to 2014 levels.

[Tony Otim]

Austria

Austria elects 18 MEPs with an extra one on the UK's withdrawal

2014 Results:

OVP	(EPP)	27.0%	5 seats
SPO	(S&D)	24.1%	5 seats
FPO	(ENF)	19.7%	4 seats
GRUNE	(G-EFA)	14.5%	3 seats
NEOS	(ALDE)	8.1%	1 seat

This time polling has the Greens down, maybe by as much as half (although the most recent poll was a bit better) and looking like losing 2 seats. NEOS are pretty much standing still, and the big 3 are all up by about 3%, so I would guess an extra seat each for OVP and FPO the way it's looking at the moment.

[Deleted]

[Tony Otim]

Bulgaria

Bulgaria will elect 17 MEPs regardless of Brexit.

2014 Results:

GERB	(EPP)	30.4%	6 seats
KB (Coalition for Bulgaria)	(S&D)	18.9%	4 seats
DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms	(ALDE)	17.3%	4 seats
BBT (Bulgaria without Censorship)	(ECR)	10.7%	2 seats
RB (Reformist Bloc)	(EPP)	6.5%	1 seat

This time round, GERB are joining up with SDS (Union of Democratic Forces), who last time were in the Reformist Bloc, they're polling roughly the same level as last time, but BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party, dropping the coalition bit) have edged into the lead since the start of the campaign, but only by 1 or 2 points. DPS are down by almost half.

The Bulgarian without Censorship coalition has dissolved, as has largely the Reformist Bloc. A nationalist United Patriots coalition was attempted between VMRO (Bulgarian National Movement, formerly part of BBT), NFSB (National FRont for the Salvation of Bulgaria) and Attack, but after standing a joint candidate for the presidency, they failed to agree a join platform for these elections and will stand separately. VMRO remain the most likely outside the big 3 to get a seat, but they're probably about the cusp of making it or not. The next most likely looks to be Volya (ENF), apro-Russian populist outfit. Democratic Bulgaria (a coalition between the Greens, Yes Bulgaria and Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (in RB last time) also look like falling short, whilst the centre-left ABV (Alternative for Bulgarian REvival) are even further back.

[Deleted]

Strange results from euandi:

Tories: 75%
Sinn Fein: 72%
Brexit Party: 71%
DUP: 70%
Greens: 69%
UUP: 69%
SNP: 67%
Labour: 64%
Plaid: 63%
UKIP: 63%
Scottish Greens: 58%
Liberal Democrats: 57%
CUK/TIG: 55%
SDLP: 53%

[curiousliberal]

May 12, 2019 21:53:56 GMT thumb21 said:

Strange results from euandi:

Tories: 75%
Sinn Fein: 72%
Brexit Party: 71%
DUP: 70%
Greens: 69%
UUP: 69%
SNP: 67%
Labour: 64%
Plaid: 63%
UKIP: 63%
Scottish Greens: 58%
Liberal Democrats: 57%
CUK/TIG: 55%
SDLP: 53%

Paging Jack - you've met your match.

[Tony Otim]

Denmark

Denmark elects 13 MEPs and will gain 1 more following Brexit

2014 results:

Danish People's Party	(ECR)	26.6%	4 seats
Social Democrats	(S&D)	19.1%	3 seats
Venstre	(ALDE)	16.7%	2 seats
Socialist People's Party	(G-EFA)	11.0%	1 seat
Conservative People's Party	(EPP)	9.1%	1 seat
People's Movement Against the EU	(GUE-NGL)	8.1%	1 seat
Danish Social Liberal Party	(ALDE)	6.5%	1 seat

This time round the Red-Green Alliance will contest the election having previously back the People's Movement against the EU. The Alternative will also be standing. These elections will be just 10 days before the Danish General election.

Polls would indicate the Social Democrats coming comfortably top and gaining an extra seat, with Venstre perhaps also gaining one on a small increase in second at the moment. Danish People's Party look set to lose around 10% and 2 seats. The others all look like holding one seat except the Conservative People's Party who look like losing theirs to the Red Green Alliance, with the Alternative coming even further behind.

[Tony Otim]

Finland

Finland will elect 13 MEPs with an extra 1 upon Brexit

2014 Results:

KOK (National Coalition)	(EPP)	22.6%	3 seats
KESK (Centre)	(ALDE)	19.7%	3 seats
PS (Finns Party)	(ECR)	12.9%	2 seats
SDP (Social DEmocratic)	(S&D)	12.3%	2 seats
VIHR (Green)	(G-EFA)	9.3%	1 seat
V (Left Alliance)	(GUE-NGL)	9.3%	1 seat
SFP (Swedish People's party)	(ALDE)	6.8%	1 seat

Polls this time indicate a tight three way race between KOK, PS and SDP. SDP were in a clear lead until the Finnish general election last month, since when the Finns Party have edged ahead. Both look like getting 3 seats, with KOK just missing out on a 3rd (but possibly getting it if Brexit happens). KESK look like losing one and the Greens gaining one. The Left are holding on, but SFP and the Christian Democrats look like missing out. 

[greatkingrat]

May 15, 2019 11:58:34 GMT @boogieeck said:

We asked nicely. We got libelled, slandered and cheated.

I am hoping for really chaotic results across the EU, with big gains for the far right, far left and separatists. I want to burn the house down.

So you will be voting SNP?

[mrpastelito]

May 15, 2019 11:58:34 GMT @boogieeck said:

We asked nicely. We got libelled, slandered and cheated.

I am hoping for really chaotic results across the EU, with big gains for the far right, far left and separatists. I want to burn the house down.

Senior Scottish Unionist in shock support for separatists furore.

[Tony Otim]

Slovakia

Like Denmark and Finland, Slovakia elects 13 MEPs with an extra one following Brexit.

2014 Results (beats Denmark in the competition for how many different parties you can split 13 seats between: 

SMER (Social Democracy)	(S&D)	24.1%	4 seats
KDH (Christian Democratic Movement)	(EPP)	13.2%	2 seats
SDKU-DS (Democratic & CHristian Union - Democratic Party)	(EPP)	7.8%	2 seats
OL'aNO (Ordinary People & Independent Personalities)	(ECR)	7.5%	1 seat
NOVA (New Majority) + KDS (Conservative Democrats) + OKS (Civic Conservatives)	(ECR)	6.8%	1 seat
SaS (Freedom & Solidarity)	(ALDE)	6.7%	1 seat
SMK-MKP (Party of the Hungarian Community)	(EPP)	6.5%	1 seat
Most-Hid	(EPP)	5.8%	1 seat

This time around SMER remain in the lead in the polls, but are a touch down and may lose their 4th seat. THere's a 3  way battle for second between OL'aNO, SaS and Kotleba L'SNS (People's Party - Our Slovakia - far right neo-fascists). All three at moment look like getting 2 seats, but Sme Rodina (We are Family (ENF) - right wing populist anti-immigration) and PS (Progressive Slovakia (ALDE) could potentially catch them and upset that. Both should get a seat at least, with the final two seats looking like going to KDH and SNS (Slovak Nationalist Party). Most-hid and SMK-MKP look like falling short.

SDKU-DS has effectively ceased to exist after losing all representation in the Slovak parliament in 2016. NOVA stood jointly with OL'aNO in 2016 and I'm not sure if that arrangement continues, but they don't feature in polls. KDS was disbanded in 2014.

[carlton43]

May 15, 2019 11:58:34 GMT @boogieeck said:

We asked nicely. We got libelled, slandered and cheated.

I am hoping for really chaotic results across the EU, with big gains for the far right, far left and separatists. I want to burn the house down.

Agreed.  

I don't just want to leave it completely but I very much want to see the whole edifice 'crash and burn'!

[Tony Otim]

Ireland

Ireland currently has 11 MEPs but is due to get an extra 2 upon Brexit. Ireland elects by 3 STV constituencies. Dublin will gain an extra seat to 4 MEPs, South increases from 4 to 5 seats but also gains Laois and Offaly counties from Midlands-North-West, which retains 4 MEPs. As I understand it the count will be conducted as 4 MEPs will be elected in Dublin and 5 in South, but in each case the final MEP elected will not take their place until Brexit happens.

2014 Results:

Fine Gael	(EPP)	22.3%	4 seats
Sinn Fein	(GUE-NGL)	19.5%	3 seats
Fianna Fail	(ALDE)	22.3%	1 seat
Independents	(Various)*	19.8%	3 seats

* of the 3 elected, Childers sat with S&D, Harkin with ALDE and Flanagan with (GUE-NGL)
The FF MEP (Crowley) then joined ECR against the wishes of the party leadership.
Dublin: 1 SF, 1 Ind (Childers), 1FG
South: 1 FF, 1 SF, 2 FG
MIdlands-North-West: 1 FG, 1SF, 2 Ind (Flanagan and Harkin)

Childers, CRowley and Harkin are all standing down this year.

National polling puts FG well up on 2014, with FF and SF down a bit.

Constituency polling:
Dublin - 1 each for FG and FF should be safe, with a 5 way scrap between a second FG, SF, Lab, Grn and Independents 4 Change. SF probably have the edge for 1.
South - 2 FG, 1 SF and 1FF look likely. The last seat possibly going to I4C
NOrth-West-Midlands - looks like probably being Flanagan, 2 FG and 1 SF

[Antiochian]

May 12, 2019 20:56:31 GMT Tony Otim said:

Bulgaria

Bulgaria will elect 17 MEPs regardless of Brexit.

2014 Results:

GERB	(EPP)	30.4%	6 seats
KB (Coalition for Bulgaria)	(S&D)	18.9%	4 seats
DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms	(ALDE)	17.3%	4 seats
BBT (Bulgaria without Censorship)	(ECR)	10.7%	2 seats
RB (Reformist Bloc)	(EPP)	6.5%	1 seat

This time round, GERB are joining up with SDS (Union of Democratic Forces), who last time were in the Reformist Bloc, they're polling roughly the same level as last time, but BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party, dropping the coalition bit) have edged into the lead since the start of the campaign, but only by 1 or 2 points. DPS are down by almost half.

The Bulgarian without Censorship coalition has dissolved, as has largely the Reformist Bloc. A nationalist United Patriots coalition was attempted between VMRO (Bulgarian National Movement, formerly part of BBT), NFSB (National FRont for the Salvation of Bulgaria) and Attack, but after standing a joint candidate for the presidency, they failed to agree a join platform for these elections and will stand separately. VMRO remain the most likely outside the big 3 to get a seat, but they're probably about the cusp of making it or not. The next most likely looks to be Volya (ENF), apro-Russian populist outfit. Democratic Bulgaria (a coalition between the Greens, Yes Bulgaria and Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria (in RB last time) also look like falling short, whilst the centre-left ABV (Alternative for Bulgarian REvival) are even further back.

Bulgaria doesn't get any more MEPs due to so many Bulgarians having moved here.... curious....

[Antiochian]

Which then raises the question whether the EU will create "external seats" (like the Italians have for their overseas citizens) for the 3.7mn EU citizens living here...?

Indeed, if Malta gets one vote in the EU27 council then one could argue that the EU's UK FoMmers should get 10 votes!

[Tony Otim]

Croatia

Croatia will elect 11 MEPs with an additional one following Brexit

2014 Results:

HDZ Coalition*	(EPP/ECR)	41.4%	6 seats
Kukuriku Coalition ^	(S&D/ALDE)	29.9%	4 seats
ORaH (Sustainable Development for Croatia)	(G-EFA)	9.4%	1 seat

* HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union (EPP)) 4 seats; HSS(Croatian Peasant Party (EPP)) 1 seat; HSP AS (Croatian Party of Rights Dr Ante Starcevic (ECR)) 1 seat; BUZ (Pensioners Block) 0 seats
^SDP (Social Democatic Party (S&D)) 2 seats; HNS-LD (Croatian Peoples Party - Liberal Democrats (ALDE)) 1 seat; IDS (Istrian Democratic Assembly (ALDE)) 1 seat; (Also included HSU (Croatian Party of Pensioners) and SDSS (Independent Democratic Serb Party)

Since the election, ORaH's MEP has left the party and the party has faded badly electorally.

Both HDZ and SDP go without coalition partners this year.
According to most polls, HDZ look set to lose a large part of their vote from 5 years ago, dropping to the mid-20s, but owing to an increasingly fractured vote may still end up with 5 seats! SDP are also set to lose at least a third of their vote compared with their coalition, but again could still get 3 seats.
The remaining 3 seats look likelty to go one each to:
-ZZ (Human Shield) - a populist anti-evictions grouping, linked with 5-star movement (Italy), Kukiz (Poland) and AKKEL (Greece)
-The so-called Amsterdam Coalition, made up of HSS, GLAS (Civic Liberal Alliance (ALDE)), IDS, HSU, the Democrats, HL (Croatian Labourists) and PGS (Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar). IDS would get the first seat.
- Most (Bridge of Independents) Centre-right and briefly HDZ' coalition partners following the election in 2016.

The next most likely to get a seat would be an alliance between HSP -(Croatian Party of Rights, of which HSP-AS above was a splinter) and NHR (Independents for Croatia), but they seem to have faded this year, or one of the independents standing individually, but all look like falling short of the threshold at the moment.

[Tony Otim]

Lithuania

Lithuania will elect 11 MEPs regardless of Brexit

TS-LKD (Homeland Union - Lithuanian Christian Democrats)	(EPP)	17.4%	2 seats
LSDP (Social Democratic Party of Lithuania)	(S&D)	17.3%	2 seats
LRLS (Liberal Movement)	(ALDE)	16.6%	2 seats
PTT (Order and Justice)	(EFDD)	14.3%	2 seats
DP (Labour Party)	(ALDE)	12.4%	1 seat
LLRA-KSS (Electoral Action of POles in Lithuania - Christian Families Alliance)	(ECR)	8.1%	1 seat
LVZS (Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Alliance)	(G-EFA)	6.6%	1 seat

Polls would indicate that TS-LKD are in the lead from LVZS, with both likely to gain at least 1 seat, perhaps 2 gains for LVZS. The Social Democrats are down and likely to lose a seat, as are the Liberal Movement and Order and Justice. DP are also down a little but likely to hold their seat as are LLRA (provided they meet the 5% threshold). The new centre party looks unlikely to make the threshold.