|
|
Post by middleenglander on Oct 3, 2017 0:08:49 GMT
It looks like 29 30 by-elections for 30 31 seats during October; a Conservative has been returned unopposed in a further seat which was due to be contested on 19th October.
* 8 on 5th October
* 8 om 12th
* 8 on 19th
* 5 6 on 26th, including "double" election
14 of the contests are for District Councils
- 11 of which (including the double election) last had all out elections in 2015
- 2 have annual elections while the other one has elections every two years, the last one in 2016
9 are in Unitary Authorities, 6 last having all out elections in 2015
- 1 has annual elections whilst 2 had all out elections in 2016
5 6 are in Metropolitan Boroughs, 1 having had all out elections in 2016 and another a by-election earlier this year
1 is for a Scottish Unitary where there was an election in May this year
Conservatives are defending 11 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 7 a resignation
Labour defend 15 16 seats, including both in the "double" election, 3 following a death and 12 13 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat after a death
Independent, Its our County and UKIP each defend 1 seat following a resignation
Conservative and Labour each contest 29 30 seats, Liberal Democrats 24 25, Greens 18 19, UKIP 16 whilst there are 10 Independents contesting 9 seats
- along with 1 each Ashfield Independents, Bus-pass Elvis, Its Our County, Putting Hartlepool First, SNP and Yorkshire
a total of 132 136 candidates for the 30 30 seats
For the "double" election the prediction should be based on the average vote for each party.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
|
|
kingsepron
Lib Dem
Pro-Remain Pro-Marijuana
Posts: 17 
|
Post by kingsepron on Oct 3, 2017 19:47:05 GMT
Mash Barn
Con 62
Lab 21
LD 13
Green 4
Crewe East
Lab 61
Con 23
Green 9
UKIP 7
Borehamwood Kenilworth
Con 40
Lab 39
LD 10
Ind (Stack) 6
UKIP 5
Burbage, Sketchley and Stretton
Con 38
LD 31
UKIP 5
Lab 11
Ind (Findlay) 15
St Germains
LD 36
Lab 24
Con 20
Green 8
Ind (Jeffries) 6
Ind (Lambert) 6
Claremont
Lab 38
Con 24
LD 19
Ind (Ferrer) 13
Green 6
Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow
Con 52
Lab 25
Green 18
LD 5
Stoneleigh & Cubbinton
Con 45
Lab 31
Green 17
LD 7
(I do hope I'm doing this right)
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Oct 3, 2017 21:58:59 GMT
Welcome, and please do persevere. This is hard.
And welcome too, I hope, to any others - new and returning - who will help make Middleenglander feel all his work is worthwhile.
|
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 4, 2017 18:37:28 GMT
Not joining, but offering a prediction for one result in the hope I don't make a total **** of myself!
Crewe East
Labour (ex LD) 66%
Con 20%
UKIP (ex Con, ex Ind, ex Con) 9%
Green 5%
I wonder where I will fall in the rankings?
Last would be ... embarrassing!
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Oct 4, 2017 21:26:23 GMT
My predictions for this week:
Adur DC, Mash Barn: Conservative 51, Labour 29, Liberal Democrats 14, Green 6.
Cheshire East UA, Crewe East: Labour 61, Conservative 28, UKIP 7, Green 4.
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Kenilworth: Labour 45, Conservative 42, UKIP 5, Liberal Democrats 5, Independent 3.
Hinckley & Bosworth DC, Burbage Sketchley & Stretton: Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 28, Labour 22, UKIP 6, Independent 4.
Redcar & Cleveland UA, St Germains: Liberal Democrats 36, Labour 28, Conservative 18, Independent (Jeffries) 7, Independent (Lambert) 6, Green 5.
Salford MBC, Claremont: Labour 55, Conservative 32, Liberal Democrats 6, Green 5, Independent 2.
South Buckinghamshire DC, Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow: Conservative 52, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 14, Green 9.
Warwick DC, Stoneleigh & Cubbington: Conservative 50, Labour 28, Green 12, Liberal Democrats 10.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2017 22:10:14 GMT
My modest predictions for 5 October are:
Adur DC, Mash Barn: Con 27, Lab 33, LD 13, Green 27
Cheshire East UA, Crewe East: Con 25, Lab 52, Green 18, UKIP 5
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Kenilworth: Con 43, Lab 46, LD 4, Ind 3, UKIP 4
Hinckley & Bosworth DC, Burbage Sketchley & Stretton: Con 15, Lab 41, LD 40, Ind 1, UKIP 3
Redcar & Cleveland UA, St Germains: Con 5, Lab 42, LD 22, Greens 29 Ind (Jeffries) 1, 1nd (Lambert) 1
Salford MBC, Claremont: Con 7, Lab 51, LD 5, Green 35, Ind 2
South Bucks DC, Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow: Con 42, Lab 30, LD 7, Green 21
Warwick DC, Stoneliegh & Cubbington: Con 36, Lab 42, LD 7, Green 15
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Oct 4, 2017 22:50:13 GMT
Adur DC, Mash Barn: Conservative 49, Labour 32, Liberal Democrats 14, Green 5.
Cheshire East UA, Crewe East: Labour 64, Conservative 24, UKIP 9, Green 3.
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Kenilworth: Labour 40, Conservative 42, UKIP 7, Liberal Democrats 6, Independent 5.
Hinckley & Bosworth DC, Burbage Sketchley & Stretton: Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 34, Labour 14, UKIP 4, Independent 6.
Redcar & Cleveland UA, St Germains: Liberal Democrats 33, Labour 30, Conservative 16, Independent (Jeffries) 10, Independent (Lambert) 8, Green 3.
Salford MBC, Claremont: Labour 60, Conservative 20, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 5, Independent 10.
South Buckinghamshire DC, Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow: Conservative 58, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 22, Green 4.
Warwick DC, Stoneleigh & Cubbington: Conservative 54, Labour 24, Green 10, Liberal Democrats 12
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 4, 2017 23:11:25 GMT
Adur DC, Mash Barn: Lab 38, Con 36, LD 18, Green 8
Cheshire East UA, Crewe East: Lab 62, Con 26, Green 8,UKIP 4
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Kenilworth: Lab 44, Con 42,UKIP 5, LD 5, Ind 4
Hinckley & Bosworth DC, Burbage, Sketchley & Stretton: LD 40, Con 36,Lab 20, UKIP 2, Ind 2
Redcar & Cleveland UA, St Germains: LD 42,Lab 39, Con 10, Green 5, Ind Jeffries 2, Ind Lambert 2
Salford MB, Claremont: Lab 50, Con 25, Green 15, Ind Ferrer 7, LD 3
South Bucks DC,Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow: Con 57, Lab 27, Green 10, LD 6
Warwick DC, Stoneleigh & Cubbington: Con 52, Lab 26,Green 14, LD 8
|
|
|
|
Post by lancastrian on Oct 4, 2017 23:13:13 GMT
Adur: Lab 45 Con 35 LD 14 Green 6
Cheshire East: Lab 67 Con 22 UKIP 6 Green 5
Hertsmere: Lab 44 Con 33 Ind 10 LD 8 UKIP 5
Hinckley & Bosworth: Con 36 LD 34 Lab 18 Ind 8 UKIP 4
Redcar & Cleveland: Lab 29 LD 26 Ind(Jeffries) 25 Con 8 Ind(Lambert) 8 Green 4
Salford: Lab 55 Ind 16 Con 16 LD 8 Green 5
South Buckinghamshire: Con 48 Lab 25 LD 20 Green 7
Warwick: Con 60 Lab 25 LD 10 Green 5
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 4, 2017 23:44:20 GMT
ADUR Mash Barn: Lab 34, C 30, GP 18, L Dem 18
CHESHIRE Crewe East: Lab 61, C 27, UKIP 7, GP 5
HERTSMERE Borehamwood Kenilworth: Lab 45, C 35, Ind 10, L Dem 6, UKIP 4
HINCKLEY AND BOSWORTH Burbage,Sketchley and Stretton: C 43, L Dem 31, Lab 18, Ind 5, UKIP 3
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND St Germains: Lab 34, L Dem 32, C 15, Ind Lambert 10, GP 6, Ind Jeffries 3
SALFORD Claremont: Lab 50, C 25, Ind 15, GP 6, L Dem 4
SOUTH BUCKS Burnham Lent Rise and Taplow: C 66, L Dem 20, Lab 10, GP 4
WARWICK Stoneleigh and Cubbinton: C 60, Lab 25, L Dem 12, GP 3
|
|
|
|
Post by hempie on Oct 5, 2017 7:30:13 GMT
Adur, Mash Barn: Con 42, Lab 36, LD 18, Green 4
Cheshire East, Crewe East: Lab 65, Con 25, UKIP 7, Green 3
Hertsmere, Borehamwood Kenilworth: Lab 39, Con 37, LD 10, UKIP 7, Ind 7
Hinckley & Bosworth, Burbage Sketchley & Stretton: Con 41, LD 32, Lab 18, Ind 5, UKIP 4
Redcar & Cleveland, St Germains: LD 33, Lab 30, Con 17, Ind (Jeffries) 10, Ind(Lambert) 8, Green 2
Salford, Claremont: Lab 62, Con 20, Ind 7, LD 6, Green 5
South Buckinghamshire, Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow: Con 59, LD 21, Lab 17,Green 3
Warwick, Stoneleigh & Cubbington: Con 53, Lab 26, LD 11, Green 10
|
|
kingsepron
Lib Dem
Pro-Remain Pro-Marijuana
Posts: 17
|
Post by kingsepron on Oct 5, 2017 16:42:37 GMT
Mash Barn Con 62 Lab 21 LD 13 Green 4 Crewe East Lab 61 Con 23 Green 9 UKIP 7 Borehamwood Kenilworth Con 38Lab 42LD 10 Ind (Stack) 6 UKIP 4 Burbage, Sketchley and Stretton Con 31LD 40UKIP 4 Lab 11 Ind (Findlay) 14St Germains LD 36 Lab 24 Con 20 Green 8 Ind (Jeffries) 6 Ind (Lambert) 6 Claremont Lab 38 Con 24 LD 19 Ind (Ferrer) 13 Green 6 Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow Con 52 Lab 25 Green 18 LD 5 Stoneleigh & Cubbinton Con 45 Lab 31 Green 17 LD 7 (I do hope I'm doing this right) Can I make a change? If so, in light of Theresa Mays recent speech, I'd like to make these changes |
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Oct 5, 2017 17:32:47 GMT
Afraid I think the rules forbid changes at this late stage.
But you might find it interesting to see if the results do vary in the way you surmise ...
|
|
kingsepron
Lib Dem
Pro-Remain Pro-Marijuana
Posts: 17
|
Post by kingsepron on Oct 5, 2017 18:20:58 GMT
Afraid I think the rules forbid changes at this late stage. But you might find it interesting to see if the results do vary in the way you surmise ... I think predicting so many holds might not have been a good strategy  |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Oct 5, 2017 20:09:40 GMT
8 entries in week l, although again nothing from Pete Whitehead despite some lurking. Greenrobinhood gets 2 additional faults for adding to 102% in Hinckley & Bosworth.
Adur, Mash Barn: 4 Conservative gain from UKIP, David Boothroyd, Lancastrian, WilliamHone & Yellow Peril Labour gain
Cheshire East, Crewe East: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 27% (WilliamHone) to 45% (Lancastrian)
Hertsmere, Borehamwood Kenilworth: 6 Labour gain from Conservative, kingsepron & Robert Waller Conservative hold
Hinckley & Bosworth, Burbage Sketchley & Stretton: 6 Conservative hold, WilliamHone Labour gain whilst Yellow Peril Liberal Democrat gain
Redcar & Cleveland, St Germains: 5 Liberal Democrat hold, David Boothroyd, Lancastrian & WilliamHone Labour gain
Salford, Claremont: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 16% (WillamHone over Green) to 42% (kingsepron over Conservative)
South Bucks, Burnham Lent Rise & Taplow: 100% Conservative hold majority from 12% (WilliamHone over Labour) to 46% (David Boothroyd over Liberal Democrat)
Warwick: Cubbington & Stoneleigh: 7 Conservative hold majority over Labour from 14% (kingsepron) to 35% (David Boothroyd & Lancastrian), WilliamHone Labour gain
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Oct 5, 2017 23:10:38 GMT
Think with the overnight results, we have a trio out in front - David and Hempie, then Lancastrian.
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2017 7:16:53 GMT
Congratulations to David -back to winning ways after his enforced break. Still there could be a little surprise package from Redcar.
Pretty indifferent night for me, but as always you learn a lot by taking part.
|
|
|
|
Post by linders on Oct 6, 2017 7:24:49 GMT
Did none of you learn from Kersal not to underestimate Salford Conservatives in a by-election?  |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 6, 2017 8:30:26 GMT
Congratulations to David -back to winning ways after his enforced break. Only by 0.3 over Hempie, and one of us will cop +10 for Redcar. (Unless it goes Tory/Independent and both of us do) |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Oct 6, 2017 10:56:56 GMT
For week 1| Authority | Adur | Cheshire East | Hertsmere
| Hinckley &
Bosworth | Redcar &
Cleveland | Salford | South
Bucks | Warwick | Ward | Mash Barn | Crewe East | Borehamwood
Kenilworth | Burbage
Sketchley &
Stretton | St Germain's | Claremont | Burnham Lent
Rise & Taplow | Stoneleigh &
Cubbington
| David Boothroyd | 47.9
| 4.4
| 19.1
| 18.0
| 43.4+10
| 20.9
| 14.6
| 15.2
| greenrobinhood | 40.6+10
| 2.4
| 31.1
| 20.6+2
| 35.4
| 27.1
| 27.8
| 17.9
| hempie | 26.6+10
| 8.5
| 12.4
| 14.0
| 31.4
| 35.0
| 19.1
| 14.8
| kingsepron | 56.6+10
| 12.4
| 15.1+10
| 24.6
| 37.4
| 26.9
| 43.4
| 27.9
| Lancastrian | 15.9
| 16.4
| 14.4
| 16.1
| 43.4+10
| 30.9
| 35.8
| 18.8
| Robert Waller | 34.6+10
| 8.2
| 24.4+10
| 12.5
| 31.4
| 31.0
| 19.1
| 17.1
| WilliamHone | 55.9
| 23.5
| 35.1
| 56.9+10
| 95.6+10
| 73.0
| 59.4
| 42.8+10
| Yellow Peril | 27.9
| 12.4
| 29.1
| 14.9+10
| 48.7
| 31.0
| 31.4
| 21.9
| Total faults | 305.8+40
| 88.4
| 180.5+20
| 177.5+20
| 366.7+30
| 276.0
| 250.5
| 176.5+10
| gwynthegriff |
| 16.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
For the week: 171.8 hempie 193.4 David Boothroyd 198.3 Robert Waller 201.7 Lancastrian 214.9 greenrobinhood 227.4 Yellow Peril 264.3 kingsepron 472.2 WilliamHone Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday. There are 8 by-elections again next week. Predictions on the thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
|
|
