Prediction Competition - October 2017

[kingsepron]

Inverurie
CON: 48.5% (+12.6) HOLD
SNP: 33.3% (+5.7)
LDEM: 8.6% (-3.2)
LAB: 8.0% (+3.7)
GRN: 1.6% (+1.6)

Tamworth
LAB: 53.4% (+14.6) HOLD
CON: 46.6% (+11.1)

No shocks there then.

[Robert Waller]

Oct 13, 2017 6:14:24 GMT yellowperil said:

yes congratulations to Hempie who has a sufficient lead to make it most unlikely he could be caught,whatever those last two results produce.

Yes, I think I may have closed the gap with the last two results but I have Hempie still winning the week and extending his lead for the month.
Reward for his consistent excellence in prediction. I let myself down with an awful underestimation of the local group in Hucknall. They had only managed about 9% in a very similar division in the May 2017 county elections.

[andrewp]

Oct 12, 2017 21:03:17 GMT middleenglander said:

For week 2

Authority	Aberdeenshire	Ashfield	Sheffield	Tamworth	Three Rivers	Wakefield	Warrington	Wyre
Ward	Inverurie & District	Hucknall North	Beighton	Bolehall	Oxhey Hall & Hayling	Stanley & Outwood	Chapelford &    Old Hall	Rossall
David Boothroyd		62.2+10	43.2		9.9	11.8	20.4	0.4
greenrobinhood		60.2+10	47.2		28.6	8.7	17.8	13.8
hempie		48.2+10	14.5		18.1	3.8	17.6	11.8
kingsepron		82.2+10	29.2		12.7	14.2	31.6	2.4
Lancastrian		50.2+10	17.9		23.3	13.4	31.5	23.8
Robert Waller		78.2+10	16.2		17.3	4.2	12.4	9.8
WilliamHone		62.2+10	35.8		33.3+10	15.6	29.5	4.2
Yellow Peril		64.2+10	26.5		16.7	29.6	17.5	30.2
Total faults		507.2+80	230.6		159.8+10	101.2	178.1	96.3

and in summary with 2 results to come:

	Week 2            faults	Week 2       position	Weeks 1 & 2   faults	Weeks 1 & 2   position
David Boothroyd	157.8
greenrobinhood	186.3
hempie	124.0
kingserpron	182.3
Lancastrian	170.0
Robert Waller	148.0
WilliamHone	200.4
Yellow Peril	194.6

Would someone be able to explain how the scoring works? I was thinking of joining the competition next month, so had a go at predictions for last night. I'd be interested to work out how I would have scored. 

[Robert Waller]

The 'faults' in Middleenglander's table above are just the sum of how many % points contestants are out when compared with the actual party shares.
So, to take the simplest example this week, in Tamworth (Bolehall) if the result were Labour 53%, Conservative 47%, and you predicted Labour 60 and Conservative 40, you would score 14 faults, 7 for each party.
All candidates are predicted, and the calculation is to one decimal point.
There is a 10 point penalty for predicting the wrong winner, and penalties too for late entry after 9 am on the day of the election and for not adding up to 100% per contest.

Do please come and have a go! You can try as a dry run next week, if you like. The contest is on a monthly basis, but there is also kudos for performance in an individual week.
I find it a good way of extending both my feeling for how well the various parties are doing at present, and of my knowledge of this country of ours.

[andrewp]

Great thanks. I understand. Why did everyone get +10 for Hucknall North?

I will try and have a go next week.

I've worked out that I was furthest away in Tamworth ( predicted a much larger Labour win) and closest in Sheffield and Wyre.

[Robert Waller]

Oct 13, 2017 18:55:16 GMT andrewp said:

Great thanks. I understand. Why did everyone get +10 for Hucknall North?

There is a 10 point penalty for predicting the wrong winner


I will try and have a go next week.

I've worked out that I was furthest away in Tamworth ( predicted a much larger Labour win) and closest in Sheffield and Wyre.

[middleenglander]

For week 2

Authority	Aberdeenshire	Ashfield	Sheffield	Tamworth	Three Rivers	Wakefield	Warrington	Wyre
Ward	Inverurie & District	Hucknall North	Beighton	Bolehall	Oxhey Hall & Hayling	Stanley & Outwood	Chapelford &    Old Hall	Rossall
David Boothroyd	18.6	62.2+10	43.2	11.2	9.9	11.8	20.4	0.4
greenrobinhood	13.6	60.2+10	47.2	7.2	28.6	8.7	17.8	13.8
hempie	15.6	48.2+10	14.5	21.2	18.1	3.8	17.6	11.8
kingsepron	20.6	82.2+10	29.2	25.2	12.7	14.2	31.6	2.4
Lancastrian	43.6	50.2+10	17.9	29.2	23.3	13.4	31.5	23.8
Robert Waller	5.6	78.2+10	16.2	13.2	17.3	4.2	12.4	9.8
WilliamHone	51.1	62.2+10	35.8	0.8	33.3+10	15.6	29.5	4.2
Yellow Peril	43.6	64.2+10	26.5	29.2	16.7	29.6	17.5	30.2
Total faults	212.2	507.2+80	230.6	137.1	159.8+10	101.2	178.1	96.3

and in summary:

	Week 2            faults	Week 2       position	Weeks 1 & 2   faults	Weeks 1 & 2   position
David Boothroyd	187.6	3rd	381.0	3rd
greenrobinhood	207.1	4th	421.9	4th
hempie	160.7	1st	332.5	1st
kingserpron	228.1	5th	492.3	6th
Lancastrian	242.7	6th	444.4	5th
Robert Waller	166.8	2nd	365.0	2nd
WilliamHone	252.4	7th	724.6	8th
Yellow Peril	267.3	8th	494.7	7th

Objections please by 5 pm Sunday.

There are 8 by-elections again next Thursday.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[kingsepron]

Congrats hempie!

[yellowperil]

I think its not just andrewp who will need to ask how things work! Given my recent form maybe I should be asking the question in a general sense, but I do have a specific question. Next week i.e. the 26th not the 19th, we have a complication that I am yet to encounter, and I think we will all need to be clear on the rules. There is a double-vacancy election, and one in which one party (the Tories,in fact) are only fielding a single candidate whereas 3 other parties are fielding 2. I understand we are to quote for the parties not the individual candidates, but does that mean we halve the Tory vote in this instance, on the basis that their potential second candidate scored 0, which would then with an average vote for each of the other three pairs will add up to 100? What has been previous practice?

[greenhert]

For this week my predictions are:

Epping Forest, Lower Sheering: Conservative 66, Liberal Democrats 34.
Gravesham BC, Meopham North: Conservative 60, Labour 26, UKIP 10, Liberal Democrats 4.
Hartlepool UA, Seaton: Putting Hartlepool First 32, Independent 28, Labour 15, Conservative 15, UKIP 10.
Lincoln BC, Carholme: Labour 60, Conservative 30, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 5.
Nottingham UA, Basford: Labour 60, Conservative 25, Green 6, UKIP 5, Liberal Democrats 4.
Nottingham UA, Bestwood: Labour 58, Conservative 26, UKIP 5, Green 4, Liberal Democrats 4, Bus-Pass Elvis 3.
Nottingham UA, Bulwell Forest: Labour 57, Conservative 30, UKIP 5, Green 4, Liberal Democrats 4.
Wigan MBC, Astley Mosley Common: Labour 53, Conservative 35, UKIP 6, Green 3, Liberal Democrats 3.

[Robert Waller]

Epping Forest, Lower Sheering: Conservative 72, Liberal Democrats 28.
Gravesham BC, Meopham North: Conservative 65, Labour 19, UKIP 5, Liberal Democrats 11.
Hartlepool UA, Seaton: Putting Hartlepool First 30, Independent 29, Labour 22, Conservative 8, UKIP 11.
Lincoln BC, Carholme: Labour 63, Conservative 24, Green 6, Liberal Democrats 7.
Nottingham UA, Basford: Labour 62, Conservative 23, Green 4, UKIP 6, Liberal Democrats 5.
Nottingham UA, Bestwood: Labour 64, Conservative 18, UKIP 7, Green 2, Liberal Democrats 5, Bus-Pass Elvis 4.
Nottingham UA, Bulwell Forest: Labour 64, Conservative 24, UKIP 6, Green 3, Liberal Democrats 3.
Wigan MBC, Astley Mosley Common: Labour 64, Conservative 23, UKIP 7, Green 3, Liberal Democrats 3.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

EPPING FOREST Lower Sheering: C 70, L Dem 30
GRAVESHAM Meopham North: C 53, Lab 25, L Dem 12, UKIP 10
HARTLEPOOL Seaton: PHF 32, Ind 27, Lab 20, UKIP 14, C 7
LINCOLN Carholme: Lab 66, C 20, GP 9, L Dem 5
NOTTINGHAM Basford: Lab 59, C 26, UKIP 8, GP 5, L Dem 2
NOTTINGHAM Bestwood: Lab 57, C 31, UKIP 4, Elvis 3, L Dem 3, GP 2
NOTTINGHAM Bulwell Forest: Lab 62, C 27, L Dem 4, UKIP 4, GP 3
WIGAN Astley Mosley Common: Lab 50, C 33, UKIP 10, GP 4, L Dem 3

[lancastrian]

Epping Forest: Con 60 LD 40
Gravesham: Con 57 Lab 26 LD 9 UKIP 8
Hartlepool: Ind 30 PHF 28 Lab 25 UKIP 9 Con 8
Lincoln: Lab 62 Con 16 LD 14 Green 8
Nottingham Basford: Lab 60 Con 19 UKIP 8 Green 8 LD 5
Nottingham Bestwood: Lab 64 Con 16 UKIP 8 Green 6 LD 4 BPE 2
Nottingham Bulwell Forest: Lab 58 Con 22 UKIP 10 Green 5 LD 5
Wigan: Lab 53 Con 24 LD 10 UKIP 8 Green 5

[yellowperil]

Epping Forest, Lower Sheering: Con 70, LD 30
Gravesham, Meopham North: Con 60, Lab 20, LD 10, UKIP 10
Hartlepool, Seaton: Ind 31, PHF 29, Lab 20, Con 10, UKIP 10
Lincoln, Carholme: Lab 62, Con 24, LD 10, Green 4
Nottingham, Basford: Lab 64, Con 24, LD 4, UKIP 5, Green 3
Nottingham, Bestwood: Lab 60, Con 23, LD 4,UKIP 7, Green 2, BPE 4
Nottingham, Bulwell Forest: Lab 60, Con 28, LD 6, UKIP 3, Green 3
Wigan, Astley Mosley Common: Lab 54, Con 30, LD 5, UKIP 7, Green 4

[andrewp]

As discussed, I'm going to have a trial go this week

Epping Forest, Lower Sheering Con 68, LD 32
Gravesham, Meopham North Con 55, Lab 24, LD 12, UKIP 9
Hartlepool, Seaton, ind 30, PHF 29, Lab 21, UKIP 12, Con 8
Lincoln, Carholme, Lab 62, Con 16, LD 14, Green 8
Nottingham, Basford, Lab 66, Con 16, LD 11, green 4, UKIP 3
Nottingham, Bestwood, Lab 63, Con 16, UKIP 8, Ld 8, green 4, Bpe 1
Nottingham bulwell, Lab 62, con 19, Ld 9, UKIP 6, green 4
Wigan, Ashley Mosley Common, Lab 59, Con 23, UKIP 9, Ld 6, Green 3

[Deleted]

Hoping for some surprises this week..

Nottingham UA - Basford
Con 25, Lab 54, LD 12, Grn 5, UKIP 4

Nottingham UA - Bestwood
Con 23, Lab 56, LD 9, Grn 5, UKIP 4, Bus Pass Elvis 3

Nottingham UA - Bulwell Forest
Con 30, Lab 54, LD 9, Grn 2, UKIP 5

Gravesham BC - Meopham North
Con 43, Lab 44, LD 8, UKIP 5

Epping Forest DC - Lower Sheering
Con 49, LD, 51

Hartlepool - UA Seaton
Con 10, Lab 43, UKIP 5, Ind 5, PHF 37

City of Lincoln - Carholme
Con 12, Lab 46, LD 34, Grn 8

Wigan MB - Astley Moseley Common
Con 24, Lab 50, LD 13, Grn 8, UKIP 5

[hempie]

Epping Forest, Lower Sheering: Con 68, LD 32
Gravesham, Meopham North: Con 60, Lab 25, LD 10,UKIP 5
Hartlepool, Seaton: PHF 32, Ind 24, Lab 22, UKIP 14, Con 8
Lincoln, Carholme: Lab 61, Con 26, LD 8, Green 5
Nottingham, Basford: Lab 63, Con 21, LD 7, UKIP 5, Green 4
Nottingham, Bestwood: Lab 66, Con 17, UKIP 7, LD 4, Green 3, Bus Pass Elvis 3
Nottingham, Bulwell Forest: Lab 64, Con 22, UKIP 6, LD 5, Green 3
Wigan, Astley Mosley Common: Lab 62, Con 22, UKIP 8, LD 5, Green 3

[kingsepron]

Sorry, was too busy this week to get it done

[middleenglander]

8 entries again this week with andrewp joining for a first time but kingsepron sending their apologies.

Epping Forest, Lower Sheering: 7 Conservative hold, share from 60% (Lancastrian) to 72% (Robert Waller) with Williamhone Liberal Democrat gain
Gravesham, Meopham North: 7 Conservative hold, majority from 31% (Andrewp & Lancastrian) to 46% (Robert Waller) with Williamhone Labour gain
Hartlepool, Seaton: 4 Putting Hartlepool First gain from Independent, andrewp, Lancastrian & Yellow Peril Independent hold, William Hone Labour gain
Lincoln, Carholme: 100% Labour hold, majority from 12% (Williamhone over Liberal Democrat) to 46% (andrewp, David Boothroyd & Lancastrian over Conservative)
Nottingham, Basford: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 29% (Williamhone) to 50% (andrewp)
Nottingham, Bestwood: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 26% (David Boothroyd)to 49% (hempie)
Nottingham, Bulwell Forest: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 24% (Williamhone) to 43% (andrewp)
Wigan, Astley Moseley Common: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 17% (David Boothroyd) to 41% (Robert Waller)

[Robert Waller]

By my rough calculations for the first seven out of eight declared:
The first three positions for the month remain the same, though I may have closed up on Hempie slightly.
Greenrobinhood and Yellow Peril are doing very well for the week.