Icelandic parliamentary election, 2017

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SDG has now hired a campaign leader for his Centre Party (the former PP campaign leader and husband of Reykjavík councillor Guðfinna Jó­hanna Guðmunds­dótt­ir), and claims their aim is to get 21% (3 x their best poll), because PP in Reykjavík succeeded in going from 3.5% in the polls to an 11% election result in 2014 (#) and they should be able to do that as well . So SDG seems still to have both feet planted in the air. 

# that was the infamous "Mosques are dangerous" campaign, so maybe a hint he will go full xenophobic nationally.

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New Frétta­blaðið poll conducted 2-3/10 has LG with a solid lead and at same level as the university polls, making it less likely they are outliers. The Centre Party is well above PP. Both PP and the People's Party are approaching the threshold. There is a real chance this could end up with a five party parliament.

LG 28.6 (20)
Pirates 11.4 (8)
SDA 10.5 (7)

IP 22.3 (15)
PP 5.5 (3)

Centre Party 8.9 (6)

People's Party 5.8 (4)

Below threshold:

Viðreisn 3.0
BF 2.6
Others 1.4

A majority of BF supporters from the last election now support SDA, and by putting lots of writers and artists on their lists in the capital region SDA seems to be trying hard to cater to the BF electorate, so I doubt they will make it now. Killing off BF would obviously be a major advantage to SDA.

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SDA are clearly trying a two-legged strategy where their three current MPs (all elected in provincial constituencies) will head lists filled with "regular folks", whereas the capital area constituencies are filled with artists and creative types to target the creative class (party leader Logi Már Einarsson is both a country boy from the north and an architect, so he fits into both categories).

Some of Iceland's best known authors are on the SDA list and several in electable positions.

In the suburban/exurban SW the author Guðmundur Andri Thorsson tops the SDA list. His "Valeyrarvalsinn" from 2011 was nominated as Iceland's bid for the Nordic Councils literary award. He is followed by the children's author Margrét Tryggvadóttir in 2nd place. She sat in the Althing 2009-13 (for the Citizen's Movement and its breakaway The Movement), and ran for Dawn in 2013. Number 10 is the actor Hjálmar Hjálmarsson, who founded the Next Best Party in Kópavogur as a parallel to the Best Party in Reykjavík, but it never took off (who wants to vote for second best? ).

Einar Kárason, who is one of Iceland's leading novelists, is no. 3 in Reykjavík South. He could very well overtake no. 2 and get in.

Novelist and satirist Hallgrímur Helgason (one of my favorite authors) is no. 8 in Reykjavík North, and Biggi veira (Birgir Þórarinsson) from the pop group GusGus is no. 12, musician, author and music journalist Dr. Gunni (Gunnar Lárus Hjálmarsson) is no. 20.

Number two in Reykjavík North is Páll Valur Björnsson, who was MP for BF 2013-16, but disagreed with their entrance in the government and defected (he had the party logo tattooed on his right arm as a sign of loyalty, so that led to some jokes).

The SDA lists in Greater Reykjavík also include the actors Edda Björgvinsdóttir and Gunnar Helgason, artist Margrét M. Norðdahl, and musician Þorkell Heiðarsson. Though I haven't checked their ranking (none of them in electable positions).

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The Pirates held their primaries this week-end. The top spots on the lists mostly went to people who are "Social Democrats with a twist" and I expect them to remain centre-leftist on economic issues despite Birgitta J. leaving, but none of them are as far to the left as she is. 

Reykjavík (not decided who gets what constituency yet):

Helgi Hrafn Gunn­ars­son (36), autodidact programer and system administrator with creative class parents (son of a sound engineer and a film maker). Didn't get on with Birgitta J. at all (likened their relationship to a dysfunctional marriage) and left the Althing at the last election to do "grass roots organizing", but with her resigning he changed his mind and is back. One of the best debaters in Icelandic politics, on the liberal/broad tent wing of the party and was against excluding Libertarians.

Þór­hild­ur Sunna Ævars­dótt­ir (30) has a law degree specializing in human rights and international criminal justice, did a stint at the ICJ in Haag before she became an MP in 2016. Somewhere on the centre-left.

SW

Jón Þór Ólafs­son (40), anarchist, perpetual philosophy student and road worker, MP 2013-15 (when he quit and went back to laying asphalt because he felt he had "started to think like a politician"), and again from 2016.

South

Co-founder Smári McCart­hy (33), who is on the left and supported Birgitta J., but thanks to his own entrepreneurial career has more focus on start-ups and small businesses than her. Has an Irish father and grew up in London and the Vestmanna Isles (where he started the first fab lab in Iceland when he was 23). His formal education consists of two years studying mathematics at the University of Iceland, but he has lots of experience heading projects all over the world, both digital fabrication related and media related. Was one of their three negotiators in the government formation last year and will retain a leadership role.

NE

Ein­ar Brynj­ólfs­son (48), taught history and German at the grammar school in Akureyri before he got elected in 2016. Has been characterized as "the kind of person who would be a Social Democrat if Iceland had a normal party system". Quiet, unassuming northerner, who was one of their thee negotiators last year and has secured close cooperation with SDA on the constitutional issue.

NW

Eva Pandora Bald­urs­dótt­ir (27) has a business degree and comes from Sauðárkrókur, the small northern town that is home to the largest and richest remaining co-op, in the country, which is said to "own" the Progress Party. Apart from transparency her focus since she got elected last year has been on welfare and (ofc) fishing. Seems like a "practical leftist".

Loser:

Former group chairman Ásta Guðrún Helga­dótt­ir ended up as 3rd in the SW and quit with a corny remark about "pursuing new adventures" (admitting you are quitting because you lost seems to be impossible for the Pirates). She has quarelled with the rest of the group and is on the more liberal/Pirate classic wing with "digital human rights" as her main cause. Her exit weakens the liberal wing quite a bit.

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The new Centre Party logo. 

The second half SDGs motivation for the choice mirrored his own self-perception (in a slightly bizarre way). 

"The Icelandic horse has followed Icelanders since the beginning, it is homey and at the same time one of the country's symbols abroad and has therefore formed strong ties between Icelanders and people all over the world. It combines rural and urban areas, work and pleasure. The Icelandic horse is sensible and durable, it can cope with storm and a hard winter, it has great adaptability and knows the way home. It always takes people to their destination (goal in Icelandic) even though the road can be difficult and long. The Icelandic horse is friendly, but can get on its hind legs when it needs to show its strength and courage."

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Fréttablaðið poll of the most imortant issue to voters.

Healthcare 37% (44% among women)
Economy 12% (17% among men)
Elderly 7%
Education 6%
Taxes 4%
Other 17% (only 2% for the environment) 
Don't know 17%

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Investigative reporters from Reykjavík Media have found out that Bjarni Ben sold shares in a Glitnir company shortly before the crash due to insider information (as did his father and father in law). They are working with The Guardian, so I expect there will be a Graun article to link to soon. 

Not sure how much this will matter because the remaining IP voters seem to be immune to revelations about the crash, but it will make it even harder for IP to get the boost they usually get in the final days of a campaign due to their mass membership and position as the default option, but that effect was already doubtful because of the reinstatement of honour to paedophiles affair. 

[Deleted]

Here it is:

"The current prime minister of Iceland sold almost all his remaining assets in a major Icelandic bank’s investment fund on the day the government seized control of the country’s collapsing financial sector at the peak of the 2008 crash.

According to leaked documents, Bjarni Benediktsson, then an MP on the parliament’s economy and tax committee, sold several million króna of assets in the Glitnir bank’s fund in the final days and hours before an emergency law placed Iceland’s failed financial institutions under state control."

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/06/iceland-pm-sold-bank-assets-hours-before-financial-crash-leaks-show

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Both LG and SDA are holding party conferences this week-end to kick off their election campaign, but so far the biggest scoop is that Jón Gn­arr has joined the SDA. He isn't going to run for office, but will campaign for them. The former Reykjavík mayor and Best Party founder is still one of the most popular men in the country and with his dyslexic working class boy made good story he doesn't come with an "elitist" image like some of the other artists that have joined them. Its a kiss of death to BF. It has been clear for years that Gnarr thought the party was too right wing, and at one point he toyed with the idea of staring a new Labour party called the People's Party (the name of the historical Social Democratic party). But apparently he is now convinced that SDA has returned to being an actual Social Democratic party and that seal of approval is likely worth a couple of points in the polls.

SDA will campaign on introducing a Scandinavian style social housing system and build "a couple of thousand" cheap flats in Reykjavík, doubling child benefits, introduce a progressive tax reform, increase assistance to the disabled and "improve their quality of life", block all attempts to privatize healthcare and invest in public healthcare services, high schools and higher education. Logi Már Einarsson also wants an action plan against "gender-based violence" and violence against children and linked it to the paedophilia scandal.

SDA being SDA they also want to switch to the Euro and restart EU-membership negotiations (the EU nonsense is seemingly mandatory for SDA regardless of the timing).

Generally it was a leftist (and therefore also expensive..) platform. LMEs speech had lots of references to the struggle against inequality, poverty and oppression and encouragement of solidarity. Switch the EU stuff with more talk about the environment and it could have been held at the LG conference.

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New University of Iceland poll conducted 2-6/10 (so including some post-"insider affair" answers) has IP dropping to 20.7, while the Centre Party get in with nearly 10% and 6 seats. The new "cool" SDA are close to 11% and likely getting some of their votes from the Pirates that are sliding, while BF and Viðreisn are dropping further below the threshold and both need a gimmick and/or tv-debate win to hang on. The People's Party seems to be rewarded for presenting a "serious" candidate list with some capable people on most of the top spots, which is remarkable since the Centre Party seemed to be taking anti-immigration votes from them. LG lose 0.6%, but two marginal seats due to Centre coming in. PP are close to the threshold at 5.5, but still retains 4 seats due to their concentrated vote in the rural constituencies (PP will still get 1-2 constituency seats even if they drop below the threshold). The last PP councillor in Reykjavík Guðfinna Jó­hanna Guðmunds­dótt­ir has defected to the Centre Party, and my guess would be that PP will hardly get any votes in the capital area now. 



LG are close to having a choice between 3rd partners, which would give rise to some internal conflicts. Some urban MPs are now also saying the party shouldn't work with the Pirates. Which seems a bit premature, they might very well end up needing them; its still a volatile electorate and Helgi Hrafn could win one of the tv-debates. 

LG - SDA - Pirates 33
LG - SDA - PP 31 

Since the two Progress Parties hate each other and IP will not work with SDG (whom Bjarni Ben consider totally unreliable), there isn't really a credible centre-right alternative.

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Jón Gnarr gets paid for being a campaign adviser to SDA and BF MP Björt Ólafs­dótt­ir claims he offered his services to them first, but that they couldn't afford him..  
Party chairman Óttar Proppé says Gnarr has been to a couple of BF meetings, but that he knows nothing about such an offer. 

The ongoing SDA conference isn't their national conference (which has been postponed to past the election), but a Reykjavík conference, it still acts as their campaign launch.

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The Centre Party was formally found today. 

SDG wants the state to use its purchase right to Arion Banki in order to restructure the entire financial system (they already own 100% of Landsbanki and Islandsbanki) "for the benefit of people and businesses" (basically he doesn't want the banks sold to foreigners, but what exactly he has in mind is unclear).

He wants a fully government run and "better" healthcare system, improved living conditions for the elderly and remove "negative motivations" from the system, which hamper the employment of senior citizens.

Also better regional policy and being a party for "all of Iceland".

No candidate list presented yet (and they are in a hurry, the lists need to be handed in on the 10th). 

....

Cultural geographer and professor of tourism studies at the University of Akureyri Dr. Edward Hákan Huijbens (41) (Dutch father, but born and bred in Akureyri), was elected deputy leader of LG on Sunday. So a Green urban academic rather than a Rural Red, but at least a northerner. I had a lecture with him a couple of months ago, and he is pleasant enough, but a bit "soft". Definitely a different type than confrontational and blunt Björn Valur Gíslason (whose work for the oil industry might finally have made him too controversial internally). Huijbens was a substitute MP a couple of times in the 2013-16 term. Their list for the NE will be published tomorrow, and if Huijbens is among the top three he should get elected on current polling numbers.

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First tv-debate on RÚV with all 12 parties trying to run lists, even the micro parties that will not run in all constituencies (incl. Dawn that "might" run in some constituencies "if the local chapters want to"...). Public broadcaster fairness rules taken a bit too far for my taste.

Katrín J. was passionate and combative, Inga Sæland also did well, and everyone laughed at the old Commie from the People's Front. Bjarni Ben was on the defense much of the time, but calm and collected as usual. The Pirates had sent Þórhildur Sunna Ævarsdóttir, who looked like a student politician, which she more or less is, instead of Helgi Hrafn. If they for some internal politics/equality/basis democracy or whatever nonsense reason don't use Helgi Hrafn in the debates they could get their rear ends kicked. Viðreisn had sent their group chairman Hanna Katrín Friðriksson instead of Chairman Benedikt, dunno why, but neither of them are all that great. They need to put Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir in the debates, but Chairman Benedikt wouldn't be comfortable with that (I still think Viðreisn would be in much better shape if they had let an experienced politician like her lead it rather than a political novice).

It was divided 6/6 with an approximate left/right divide, but they had put Sæland at the far right end (to the right the Icelandic National Front guy), which seemed a wee bit too deliberate.. (and will increase some people's perception of RÚV as run by Social Democrats ), and SDG on the far left on the leftist side (next to the Pirates ), but I guess they had to keep him far away from SIJ. 

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Well, I said at one point few people switch directly from IP to LG, but apparently that isn't true anymore. A political scientist quoted some data from the last University of Iceland poll and 24% of those who voted IP last time would vote LG now (but they did advance from around 23 to 29% in the last week, so probably mostly the swing voters they picked up near the end). That means LGs support is softer than I thought and therefore could collapse faster. It also seems to confirm their very high female vote share is caused by the paedophilia affair. She also aid that she thought IP was down to its core vote in 2019/2013, but that its unclear what their floor is now.

22% of Pirate voters (= 3.2 points) would vote LG, which explains most of their loss, but the poll has them losing 2.2 points more.

40% of PP voters from 2016 will vote Centre, so SDG & Co. gets half of their current support from elsewhere.

Unfortunately they haven't published the full data set from the poll.

(usual caveats about subsamples etc. apply)

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A few more numbers from the last University of Iceland.

Would vote on the same party as last time


PP 38%
IP 55% (would be historically low..)
Pirates 36%
SDA 72%
LG 78%

Where the Centre Party voters come from (half from PP, a quarter from IP)

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Benedikt Jóhannesson has been forced to retract and apologize to paedophilia victims after he backed his fellow Viðreisn MP Þorsteinn Víglundsson and said that the fall of the government was unnecessary and happened because of an affair few people could understand and "if it was so important it would have been a major theme in the campaign". Since Viðreisn started out leaving the government and were highly critical of IP this just doesn't make sense. Maybe its an attempt to lure IP voters, but it looks like a complete disaster for them.

Meanwhile BF continues to deliver low blows against Jón Gnarr. Guðlaug Kristjánsdóttir, who is the Chairman of the Board of BF, has published a photo of Jón's (alleged) signature on the party's list of recommendations. Gnarr denies its his an says "this is not just foolish, rude and untrue, but probably also illegal".

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New Frétta­blaðið poll has LG leading IP with nearly 8 points, but SDA back to pre-campaign level and the Pirates very low (2.9 points lower than in their poll last week). The three parties get 32 seats, but the 6th Pirate seat is extremely marginal and they didn't include it in their graphic (showing a 16-16 tie). People's Party low again (following the general pattern of them sliding), so maybe their 9% in the last university poll was an outlier.

Its a one-day poll (from 10/10) with 804 out of a 1322 sample reached (60.8%). 13% were undecided, 10% said they wouldn't vote or vote blank, 11% refused to answer. Not a high quality poll.

LG 29.9 (21)
SDA 8.3 (5)
Pirates 8.5 (6)

Combined 46.7 (32)

BF 3.6 (0)
Viðreisn 3.3 (0)

IP 22.2 (16)
PP 7.1 (5)

Centre Party 9.2 (6)
People's Party 6.1 (4)

Others 1.8

Not sure how many polls we will get. It looks like MMR doesn't have a client this year. They did one poll, but it was seemingly done just to show the flag without being solicited (and isn't included in the list of published polls by Morgunblaðið), Zenter did the very first for the website Kjarnin, but I doubt Kjarnin can afford to do regular polls and expect it to be a one off. So probably only three regular pollsters this year, provided Gallup - hopefully - does more polls for RÚV.

[Devil Wincarnate]

@odo- will Gnarr's shenanigans kill off BF?

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Þór­hild­ur Sunna Ævars­dótt­ir, Helgi Hrafn Gunn­ars­son and Smári McCart­hy have been chosen as the Pirates' negotiation delegation if they are to engage in government talks with Þór­hild­ur Sunna as the chairman (she was always in the first debate, so apparently she is their "queen"). Northener Einar Brynjólfsson, who was a key player in their 2016 negotiations, are out.

[Trab]

How left-wing are Jakobsdóttir and the LGs? A pretty rudimentary question, I know.