Icelandic parliamentary election, 2017

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Oct 11, 2017 18:11:19 GMT Trab said:

How left-wing are Jakobsdóttir and the LGs?

Left Social Democrats/Democratic Socialists with environmentalist focus and some ideas about democratizing the economy, moving toward more communal ownership etc. Their election platform is available in English. Although the quality of the translation isn't always all that good and includes a few oddities (i.e. they write "remain in place" about things they want to establish). The biggest divide in LG is urban/rural with the rural wing being less green, more protectionist and conservative on fishing & farming, and europhobic. Their urban wing can be divided between Greens and Hard Left (but the difference isn't all that big anymore). Katrín came from the more leftist part of the Green wing when she became leader.

They are in favor of a mixed-economy, but apart from one state owned bank (Landsbanki, which is already nationalized) they prefer the co-op model, which has long historical roots in Iceland, they also want to be outside military alliances (= leave NATO), take more refugees, increase development aid etc. Leaving NATO is a no-go for the Social Democrats, so its symbolic, but interesting they have put it in their platform.

The constitutional proposal they support includes fish stocks being made the property of the nation (as well as other natural resources), but fishing quotas aren't included, its something they disagree quite a lot on internally (their rurals are "do not rock the boat" on this).

"Let’s make the economy and job market more democratic and diverse by creating a legislative framework and incentives for the establishment of communal banks, socially-operated insurance companies owned by the general public and other kinds of cooperatives."

"Housing is a basic human right and it is sensible to have a social housing financing fund that guarantees loans to buy housing throughout the country."

"Iceland shall place itself among pioneering countries in which currency speculation and short-term profiting off of capital flows is taxed, thus discouraging speculative capital transfers"

"Let us ensure social, economic and cultural human rights, in accordance with the areas of focus in the new constitution, as well as conventional civil and political rights, and let us review all legislation with human rights as our guide. This applies to the right to education, work and health care. It is also important to implement so-called joint human rights that entail the right to development, peace and a healthy environment."

"Iceland should be carbon neutral by 2050 (2040 in the Icelandic version.. ). We need to abandon plans for oil production, replace fossil fuels for renewable energy sources, capture carbon through mitigation measures, and abandon all plans for further development of heavy industry.
They also want to create a highlands national park (the most ambitious targets for this is 40% of the national territory, but they set no specific target.

"We should establish a national park in the central highlands and the West Fjords highlands and bolster our parks service."

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Bene­dikt Jó­hann­es­son has stepped down as chairman of Viðreisn­ (he was a liability after his stupid remarks and they are fighting for survival now) and former IP deputy leader Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir has been elected as new chairman by their Board of Advisers. Time will tell if that is enough to safe Viðreisn.

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Oct 11, 2017 10:26:27 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

@odo  - will Gnarr's shenanigans kill off BF?

Well, seen from my POV he hasn't made any shenanigans. He never joined the party, toyed with plans about creating a Labour party (he comes from a trade union family and is a fairly classic Social Democrat at heart) and later said he sympathized with the Pirates. He doesn't owe them anything, they on the other hand got a lot of goodwill from the Best Party brand and that was mostly created by Gnarr. 

But its a symbolic blow and combined with all the authors and artists running for SDA a sign they aren't the "cool kids" anymore in a country where artists have very high status. They had already lost key people. Both of the two architechts behind the transformation of the Best Party (the people that crafted the policies when the joke party had to govern) their campaign leader Heiða Kristín Helgadóttir (who was co-founder of BF), and Gaukur Úlfarsson are elsewhere. Heiða Kristín in Viðreisn and Gaukur in the Pirates. 

There is only room for one Liberal party in Iceland (but unlike the other new parties its also an ideological niche that is vacant in modern urban Iceland, so I think there will be one long term). If one of them survives this time and the other fails to get in the loser will wither away. If both Viðreisn and BF fail to pass the threshold I would expect Viðreisn to win out. It has better funding and is less of an odd duck. Especially now that Þor­gerður Katrín Gunn­ars­dótt­ir has replaced Bene­dikt Jó­hann­es­son (even if its temporarily and needs confirmation from their new parliamentary group that should be a formality). I think its very unlikely they both make it. At some point europhile Liberal voters may start to coalesce around one of them. 

BF had a good municipal election in 2014, so they have a lot of councillors and that makes them more resilient, but if the party fails to get representation I could see some of their councilors running for local lists in 2018 rather than being associated with a losing party. 

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The lists are in and nine parties are running in all constituencies: LG, SDA, IP, PP, Centre, Pirates, BF, Viðreisn and the People's Party.

Three other parties are fielding lists in some constituencies. The People's Front on Iceland will run in the two Reykjavik constituencies, SW and NE (= anywhere with sizable urban areas). The Icelandic Nation Front will run in the two Reykjavik constituencies, SW and South (= anywhere outside Northern Iceland, where immigration is viewed very positively). Dawn are only running in the South constituency.

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The Icelandic National Front have withdrawn all of their four constituency lists after it was exposed they had falsified some of their signatures. Complete joke party.

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I was at the Arctic Circle conference this (extended) weekend, so have had time to update this. Three polls have come out:

The two panel based ones (Gallup and MMR) show a tighter race, but the Gallup poll is conducted over two weeks and includes data from late September and with such a volatile race that seems pointless, the MMR polls seems off this year and they may have changed the composition of their panel too much after their lackluster performance up to the 2016 election (where they weren't any better than the Fréttablaðið polls). But while "popular with the youth" LG is on a lower level, IP isn't doing any better in these, which should be worrying for them.

The weekly University of Iceland poll from Saturday (weighed for demographics, but not likelihood to vote and with the low youth turnout in the last two elections that means it probably over estimates the left), shows LG gradually declining from 29.6 in the first one to now 27.4 (via 28.8 and 28.2). While SDA thanks to a leftist campaign, popular artists on their lists and the Gnarr endorsement are surging. LG/SDA/Pirates get 51.9% and 36 seats combined.

LG 27.4 (19)
SDA 15.3 (11)
Pirates 9.2 (6)

IP 22.6 (16)
PP 5.5 (3)

People's Party 6.5 (4)
Centre 6.4 (4)

Viðreisn 3.4
BF 2.6

Others 1.1

The Gallup poll from 29/9 to 12/10 with a participation rate of 59.2% from a 3,876 randomly selected sample from Gallup's panel (which is quite large, around 10% of the electorate). They say it has a MoE between 0.8 and 0.9%. The problem is that many early respondents will have changed their mind during the two weeks, and the net result of that is hard to assess. I hope this is the last of their "long" polls. Last year they did 3-4 day polls near the end. Its weighed for likelihood to vote, which lowers support for parties with young and low income vote (= LG), but its interesting that this no longer seem to harm the Pirates much. The youth vote could well be higher this time as the anti-IP mood seems to be stronger and the paedophilia affair has enraged many. The left lacks one seat in this one, which given no one wants to work with SDG would make government formation very difficult.

LG 23.0 (16)
SDA 13.4 (9)
Pirates 8.8 (6)

IP 23.7 (16)
PP 7.2 (5)

Centre 9.5 (6)
People's Party 5.7 (4)

Viðreisn 4.8 (1 constituency seat in the SW)
BF 3.0

Dawn 0.5%
People's Front of Iceland 0.2%
Icelandic National Front 0.1%

The MMR poll for the business journal Viðskiptablaðið (so they ended up getting a client after all..) was conducted 6-11/10 and also has the Big 2 tied, but on a lower level. LG at 21.8 (a 3 point drop since early September) and IP at 21.1. Its based on 966 answers from their panel. Fréttablaðið had LG at 29.9% on the 11th, so quite a difference.

LG 21.8
SDA 13.0
Pirates 10.5

IP 21.1
PP 5.9

Centre 10.7
People's Party 7.4

BF 4.2
Viðreisn 3.6

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The scaremongering is on. IP website Andriki presents this "horror cabinet" with no less than seven women ministers... incl. Birgitta Jónsdottir as Minister of Foreign Affairs (that will never happen... ). LG founder "Skattgrímur" as Minister of Finance once more (skatt being Icelandic for tax), a Pirate Minister of Justice and the actress (and lawyer) Helga Vala Helgádottir as Minister of Transport (artists handling infrastructure = disaster).

"The government of Pirates, Left Greens and the Alliance is now the most likely outcome of the parliamentary elections, which will take place on 28 October - if the polls can be trusted. This government would be similar to the left-wing government in 2009-2013, putting the greatest emphasis on raising taxes on the population, destroying the constitution of the republic, helping the foreign creditors of the banks and putting Iceland into the European Union.

Such a change of government is a grave matter in a country where so much has been gained since the left government finally ended in 2013. Unemployment is low, inflation low, interest rates declining, and purchasing power rising rapidly, there is surplus on the budget and debt has steadily been paid off and there is a good balance of payments."

The horror cabinet:

Prime Minister Katrín Jakosdottir (LG)
Minister of Finance Steingrímur J. Sigfússon (LG)
Minister of Fishing and Agriculture Svandís Svavarsdóttir (LG)
Minister of Environment Lilja Rafney Magnúsdóttir (LG)

Minister of Foreign Affairs Birgitta Jónsdottir (Pirates)
Minister of Justice Smári McCarthy (Pirates)
Minister of Industries Þórhildur Sunna Ævarsdóttir (Pirates)

Minister of Education Logi Már Einarsson (SDA)
Minister of Health and Social Affairs Oddný G. Harðardóttir (SDA)
Minister of Transport Helga Vala Helgádottir (SDA)

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IP have launched their economic plan which has big spending increases, increased welfare for the poor and tax cuts to low incomes, paid partly by dividends from the two big nationalized banks (so no privatization in the next term).

This proposal is basically an invitation to LG to make a national compromise about infrastructure and welfare (one that doesn't raise taxes..). They are in a difficult position because there isn't a realistic centre-right option (working with SDG is out of the question, vote wasting seems unavoidable, and the People's Party takes some right wing voters as well - pensioners and islamophobes), and most centrist parties have relatively recent negative experiences from working with IP (SDA, PP, BF and Viðreisn). So forcing LG into accepting a grand coalition or getting blamed for causing a new election is their best chance (in the first case hoping to strangle them via the junior coalition partner curse, which is quite strong in Iceland, and in the second running on being the only ones that can guarantee stability). To do that they need to finish ahead of LG and prevent an LG/SDA/Pirates majority. Their problem is that a leftist majority is the only stable government option (a message LG have focused on), and that (and the two "affairs") has attracted some swing voters to LG, who would normally never vote for the left.

The plan:

- They will spend an extra 100 billion krónur on infrastructure development, which will be taken out of the state-owned banks through special dividend payments in the coming years (this on top of previously planned infrastructure investments).

- Establish a National Fund for future generations based on dividends from state-owned energy resources (sort of an Icelandic "oil fund" without oil).

- Cut the tax rate for low incomes to 35% and lower the social insurance fee.

- Introduce an income tax deduction for citizens working past retirement age of 100,000 krónur per month (poor pensioners being punished economically for working has been a major theme).

- Increase the number of nursing home places.

- Increase payments to people on maternity/paternity leave and secure they do not fall below the average salary in the private sector.

- Introduce a scholarship scheme "based on the Nordic model". Students will receive a grant of 65,000 krónur per month supplemented with top-up loans equivalent to a full-time allowance to "the vast majority of students".

- Increase government support for research and technological innovation from 2.6 billion to 4.7 billion krónur over three years.

- Making it easier for young people to get their first apartment by ensuring an active rental market (not specified).

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The PP populist gimmick this year is a proposal of allowing young people to take out money from their pension funds to use as downpayment on a house or flat and pay it back when they sell it. This has landed Sig­urður Ingi Jó­hanns­son in a fight with trade union confederation (ASÍ) boss Gylfi Arn­björns­son, who calls it a "mad" idea that will undermine the labour market pension system.

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The sheriff in Reykjavik has agreed to Glitnir HoldCo's claim that a ban should be imposed on further news from Stundin and Reykjavík Media based on data from the collapsed bank (given that the data have originally been stolen). The two media have appealed the ban to the district court, but are blocked from publishing more news about the Bjarni Ben story for the rest of the campaign.

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New Fréttablaðið poll out today. The People's Party drop below the threshold, and Viðreisn are right at it, BF far below (so maybe Liberal consolidation around the "best chance" option). The basic pattern from the two non-panelbased pollsters is similar, but SDA drop 5 points from the University poll, but it had them on a post-2013 high, so probably an outlier. Otherwise the biggest difference is that the People's Party lose 2.8 point while Centre gains 4.3. IP maverick Ásmundur Friðriksson directly linked the cost of refugees to lack of funds for the elderly, which opened the "racist door" (to reference Frankie Boyle), but Sæland repeated that they do not want fewer quota refugees only faster expulsion of rejected asylum seekers, and that might have cost her the hardliners. SDG hasn't run on an anti-refugee platform, but everyone knows where he stands, and I think Sæland might finally have lost all credibility on immigration.

PP gain 2 points, so maybe the debate about their pension fund for downpayment gimmick has helped them (though it could be a coincidence, the PP vote has been quite volatile).

LG 27.0 (19)
SDA 10.4 (7)
Pirates 10.0 (7)

Total 47.4 (33)


IP 22.2 (15)
PP 7.5 (5)

Centre 10.7 (7)
People's Party 3.7

Viðreisn 5.0 (3)
BF 2.1

Others 1.4

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The Centre Party have also been reported to the police for having false signatures on a recommendation list (seven fake names on the Reykjavík North list), but since they had enough signatures without them they still get on the ballot. But not a good look for SDG & Co.

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The ban on publishing the Glitnir material looks certain to be overruled by the court according to Icelandic legal experts. Since Stundin only used the material to go after the PM and other powerful people the public's right to information will trump the bank secrecy and privacy concerns. They also consider the claim that the bankrupt's estate should be liable to pay compensation to exposed customers if they didn't act to be baseless. The district court will hear the decision either Friday or Monday, which means that more material can probably be published; Stundin had actually intended not to publish articles about the matter in the final week of the campaign due to fairness issues, but they may change their mind on this given that they haven't been able to publish them before, so the ban could end up harming IP.

Everyone (nearly all parties, the Minister of Culture (from IP), the Author's Association, Icelandic PEN etc.) has criticized the decision and Bjarni Benediktsson has stated he doesn't support the ban and that it violates freedom of speech. IP MP Bryndís Haraldsdóttir even claim its an attack on IP (trying to make them look like they have something to hide).

The County Sheriff in Reykjavík Þórólfur Halldórsson is a member of IP and former municipal candidate for them. He was cautioned in 1998 when he used his position as County Sheriff in Patreksfjörður to make house calls at the hospital and priate homes to collect postal votes from the elderly and disabled (IP got the vast majority of those votes and won the election). Which has been touted as evidence he is willing to bend the rules to help the party (only in this case nearly all IP politicians seem to agree it will backfire).

The representatives of LG and the Pirates have called in the Althing's Constitutional and Oversight Committee to discuss the matter tomorrow.

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The Pirates have published their budget proposal for 2017/18. Its main point is to finance significant investments in welfare by huge increases in fees for fishing quotas and climate quotas. The former is controversial for the rural part of LG.

(since the welfare state was cut down significantly after the crash basically all parties promise better healthcare, pensions, conditions for the disabled, and investments in education, R &D and housing. The differences regard their priorities, amounts and financing).

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MMR continues to deviate from the other pollsters. They now have both IP and LG below 20%.. They will either be vindicated or have egg on their face after the election, but at least you can't accuse the Icelandic pollsters of herding.  The SDA and Pirate gains more than make up for the LG loss.

They have Viðreisn solidly above the threshold and BF totally collapsing (which sounds believable). The People's Party lose a couple of points, but are still marginally above, their relatively good result is one more thing that points to MMR having a high share of elderly in their polls.

The poll is conducted 17-18 October.

LG 19.1 (-2.7)
SDA 15.8 (+2.8)
Pirates 11.9 (+1.4)

Combined 46.8

IP 19.9% (-1.2)
PP 8.0 (+2.1)

Centre 11.0 (+0.3)
People's Party 5.3 (-2.1)

Viðreisn 6.7­ (+3.1)
BF 1.6 (-2.6)

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A recent Gallup poll (with LG at 25%) showed that 51% of their voters were pro-EU membership contrary to their 5,000 members, who are overwhelmingly against, though not as hardcore as the leadership. In 2013 the party leadership - incl. Katrín Jakobsdóttir - suggested the party should include Icelandic withdrawal from EEA and Schengen in their manifesto, but that was rejected by the delegates at their party conference.

The fact that most leftist voters are pro-EU, against protectionism (which ofc causes higher consumer prices) and pro-auctioning off fishing quotas made it hard for LG to keep their hold on urban middle class leftists once SDA got their act together and swung left (and the Pirates have presented a serious and clearly leftist budget proposal). So its most likely this segment that is defecting.

However SDA do not have a PM candidate. Only three leftist parliamentary candidates (with any chance of getting elected) have cabinet experience: Katrín J., Steingrímur J. Sigfússon and former SDA chairman Oddný G. Harðardóttir, and its hard to see Oddný G. suddenly surface as PM candidate, so SDA ahead of LG would be a mess. If SDA gets too close to LG I expect some female voters to go back to LG in order to secure Katrín becomes PM.

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Logi Már Einarsson says that he "considers it appropriate to decide whether to continue talks with the European Union in parallel with the local elections this spring". He says it will be an important issue when it comes to government formation, but a referendum will not be a condition for SDA participation in a government. He then went on to say voters are better informed than ever and should be heard directly on more issues.

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Campaign budgets:

2017:

LG 30 mio.
SDA 13 mil.

2016:

LG 34.5 mio.
SDA 40 mio.

SDA spend three times as much in 2016 ending up with 5.7%, now they may end up more than doubling their vote at a third of the cost.

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No. 2 on the SDA list in Reykjavík North Páll Valur Björnsson, who sat in the Althing for BF 2013-16 and got the party logo tattooed on his arm when he got elected, has now gotten the SDA tatoo as well. True commitment. Lets hope he at least gets elected.. 

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"Who do you agree the most with" test. The first five options from the top are: "Very much agree", "Somewhat agree", "Neither agree nor disagree", "Somewhat disagree", "Very much disagree". The sixth (bottom) is "do not want to answer".

www.mbl.is/frettir/kosningar/spegill

1. The Constitution needs to be amended extensively.

2. Iceland should have a national church that is supported by the state.

3. Sale of alcohol in supermarkets should be allowed.

4. The ethical rules for politicians must be tightened.

5. Reykjavík Airport should be moved from Vatnsmýrinn. (to make room for housing - its very close to the city center today)

6. Iceland should receive more refugees and asylum seekers.

7. Look into adopting a foreign currency instead of the Icelandic króna. (oddly phrased)

8. Ban indexation of mortgages.

9. The public should own at least one commercial bank.

10. It is always important to put environmental considerations before economic interests.

11. Reduce state support to Icelandic agriculture.

12. Substantial changes must be made to the quota system in the fisheries sector.

13. The tourism industry must contribute more to society through increased tax payments.

14. There is a need for increased private sector healthcare.

15. The state should allocate a higher proportion of its budget to healthcare.

16. People with high incomes should pay higher taxes than people with low incomes. (taxes = tax rates)

17. Taxes need to be reduced and government expenditures and the activities of the public sector reduced.

18. Government services serve the public's interests better than private services.