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Post by tamar on Sept 27, 2017 23:44:21 GMT
It looks like the new name for SDG's party will be the Centre Party (Miðflokkurinn) rather than the Cooperative Party to align with the Nordic centre parties, which is a bit ironic giving that the remaining Progress Party will be fairly close to the Norwegian Centre Party if SDG takes the most right wing parts of the party with him. I thought the Norwegian Centre had gone significantly more populist and nationalist recently? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 28, 2017 7:12:34 GMT
It looks like the new name for SDG's party will be the Centre Party (Miðflokkurinn) rather than the Cooperative Party to align with the Nordic centre parties, which is a bit ironic giving that the remaining Progress Party will be fairly close to the Norwegian Centre Party if SDG takes the most right wing parts of the party with him. I thought the Norwegian Centre had gone significantly more populist and nationalist recently? A bit, but not anything off the chart. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 14:05:10 GMT
Former "media mogul" and unconvicted tax embezzler Björn Ingi Hrafnsson declares that his new Cooperative Party (which probably hardly exists) will join SDGs new centrist party. SDG acts all principled and states that no groups will be allowed to merge into the party, and only individuals who are committed to the 2009-16 PP platform will be accepted.
"The party will not be everything for everyone and it is not meant to be. But for those who commit 100% and for people who want to support politics based on rationalism, arguments and constructive solutions. A party that dares to safeguard justice and fight for progress whether it is easy or difficult."
Difficult to see the point in the whole Cooperative Party charade, but seems Björn Ingi Hrafnsson made it on his own initiative hoping to get a leg up on rivals in SDGs fan club.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 19:26:55 GMT
MMR poll conducted 26-28/9 and with a 3.1 MoE.
It has LG 5 points lower than the University of Iceland poll, but still ahead of IP. Its the first one to measure the "Sigmundur Davíð Party" as they call it, and its bigger than PP, but both are above the threshold. It has SDA quite high, so the combined LG/SDA share doesn't drop that much, but the Pirates low. Viðreisn just below the threshold, BF far below. MMR is traditionally the #2 pollster in Iceland, but their 2016 results weren't better than the rest of the non-Gallup polls.
SDG gets c. 4 points from PP and probably around a point from the People's Party, the rest is probably from all over the place except the europhile Liberal parties.
Left Greens 24.7
SDA 10.4
Pirates 10.0
IP 23.5
PP 6.4
Sigmundur Davíð Party 7.3
People's Party 8.5
Below threshold:
Viðreisn 4.9
BF 2.5
Dawn 0.6
People's front of Iceland 0.6
Icelandic National Front 0.3
Humanist Party 0.1
Others 0.2
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 19:51:12 GMT
One other option is that PP may have gained some former voters who had defected to LG, some people have flatly refused to vote for the party as long as SDG was still in it. If so he might have taken nearly all of his vote from PP (apart from the point I am fairly sure he gains from the People's Party).
In rural areas PP and LG have a partly overlapping electorate (both protectionist, anti-EU, and perceived as pro-welfare & pro-rural interests). Especially in the north.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 20:08:56 GMT
IP in Reykjavík will not hold a primary, but simply move all candidates from their 2016 list one place up (due to the death of Ólöf Nordal). This means that Brynjar Níelsson will top their list. He was until recently chairman of the Constitutional and Supervisory Committee and refused to reveal the identity of the persons behind the recommendations about reinstating honour to the committee, is a former legal advisor to the paedophile Bjarni Ben's father recommended, and have been accused of behaving insensitively and disparraging towards the family of a paedophilia victim. So a bit of a chance to run him in the top spot.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 20:25:21 GMT
The Centre Party (Miðflokkurinn) has been officially founded.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 20:30:20 GMT
Worth noticing that the three last polls all have IP at 23% to 23.5%, very consistent (and Icelandic pollsters have no tradition of hoarding). These are the polls taken after the electronic media started covering the paedophilia case.
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Post by tamar on Sept 28, 2017 21:41:41 GMT
What are the odds of this People's Party working with an LG-led government? And is any movement on the new constitution that was supposed to get passed a few years ago likely?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2017 22:48:05 GMT
What are the odds of this People's Party working with an LG-led government? And is any movement on the new constitution that was supposed to get passed a few years ago likely? The People's Party would have to work with a centre-left based government to get their welfare policies implemented (there is no way IP would accommodate them), but its a very mixed bag that also includes some right wing populist types. Though its essentially a personal vehicle for their leader Inga Sæland, so it would be up to her. I doubt anyone in LG wants to base a government on the People's Party. Reykjavík LG wants LG-SDA-Pirates-(BF). Rural LG prefers LG-SDA-PP (and many of them can accept a grand coalition with IP if need be, but that is a no-go for Reykjavík leftists). If none of those two options have a majority it will be complicated and unpredictable (like last time). IP are basically isolated now, so I doubt they can form a government (though you can never write them off). I have written about the constitutional issue above. IP wants to change selected parts of it over three parliamentary terms (something LG aren't opposed to if it is based on the draft of the old Constitutional Council) and PP can also get behind. Their aim is an update and streamlining of the text (it was poorly written and includes some lacunae). The other parties agreed in principle on a faster track and a comprehensive reform, but only SDA and Pirates wanted to take a confrontation on the issue and risk blocking other matters (asylum seekers, reinstated honor clause etc.). Katrín Jakobsdóttir had presented a compromise proposal that would allow the Althing to pass constitutional reform with a 3/5 majority in the next term and then get it approved in a referendum if a majority consisting of minimum 25% of the electorate voted for them. This was agreed on by all parties except IP. When a similar clause was approved before the 2013 election set the quorum to 2/3 of parliamentarians and 40% of the electorate, which proved too high to get constitutional reform implemented. IP has suggested using three terms to gradually amend the constitution. The regular way to amend the constitution is for one parliament to approve the changes and the next to approve them, but the Althing has the right to agree on a procedure for doing it in one-term. The proponents of constitutional reform fear a two-term process will be too easy to block. The snap election means the matter suddenly became urgent again (the context being that most assume IP will get a bad election and have less opportunity to block/water down constitutional reform in the next parliament). |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 16:24:10 GMT
Former Foreign Minister, deputy leader and group chairman Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson leaves PP due to "the use of subversive tactics to force party members out" and a toxic climate in the party. He still claims that he could have beaten Ásmundur Einar Daðason for the top spot in the NW constituency poll, but most likely he had realized he couldn't.
He hasn't joined the Centre Party yet, but if he does it will give them a basis in the NW as well, leaving only the South constituency as a lacunae for the new party.
Only eleven days ago Gunnar Bragi said that "I was born into the Progress Party and I am going to die a member of the Progress Party". Things move fast in Icelandic politics at the moment.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2017 8:30:25 GMT
New University of Iceland poll (using decimals this time) has three centre-right parties between 4% and 5%: Viðreisn, BF and the Centre Party. LG lose about a point and IP gain one (the change from last time is well within the MoE). The People's Party down to 6.5%, and they seem generally to be sliding (stiff competition for the protest vote now). Compared to the last poll IP gain 3 seats and the Pirates 2, while PP lose 2 and Viðreisn all three. The IP gain is mostly due to PP losing two rural seats. LG + SDA + Pirates 35 IP 18 PP 5 People's Party 5   |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2017 14:52:51 GMT
Gallup poll for RÚV, but conducted 15-28/9, not sure how useful that is given it includes data from before the electronic media covered the scandal and the founding of the Centre Party. The old data probably explain why it has BF above Viðreisn, I think its clear its the reverse by now. BF got a bump when they toppled the government, but it didn't last. It was IP on the same level as the others.
LG 25.4
IP 23.1
Pirates 10.3
People's Party 10.1
PP 9.9
SDA 9.3
Below threshold:
BF 4.6
Viðreisn 3.6
Others 3.7
Of those:
Centre Party c. 2%
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2017 16:34:17 GMT
The lead candidates for the Peoples Party will be:
Reykjavík South: Inga Sæland (party chairman, former X-factor contestant and first blind law graduate in Iceland).
Reykjavík North: Dr. Ólafur Ísleifsson (the aforementioned economist).
SW: Guðmundur Ingi Kristinsson, disabled ex-police officer and chairman of an organization for pensioners.
South: Karl Gauti Hjaltason, ex-police chief on the Vestmanna Islands and former principal of the police academy.
NW: Magnús Þór Hafsteinsson, biologist, tv-journalist, MP 2003-07 for the Liberal Party and chairman 2004-07.
NE: Rev. Halldór Gunnarsson (former vicar in Holti, church councillor and sheep farmer). Enemy of paedophilia accused Bishop Ólafur Skúlason (1989-97), whom he labelled a rapist and psychopath.
All fairly old (late 50s and upwards) and its starting to look like a pensioners party. The Liberal Party was an attempt to copy the Norwegian Progress Party, that never really took up. It attracted an odd bunch and ended up merging into the (fairly leftist) citizen movement dominated Dawn.
This line-up doesn't exactly say leftist. But still to early to say whether it will morph into a continental style right wing populist party, it may end up as a fairly generic pensioners party with a bit of nationalism/protectionism added.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2017 18:49:30 GMT
IP in Reykjavík will not hold a primary, but simply move all candidates from their 2016 list one place up (due to the death of Ólöf Nordal). This means that Brynjar Níelsson will top their list. He was until recently chairman of the Constitutional and Supervisory Committee and refused to reveal the identity of the persons behind the recommendations about reinstating honour to the committee, is a former legal advisor to the paedophile Bjarni Ben's father recommended, and have been accused of behaving insensitively and disparraging towards the family of a paedophilia victim. So a bit of a chance to run him in the top spot. Well they decided to top that decision by replacing him with Minister of Justice Sigríður Á. Andersen and he is now no. 2. So he two politicians most tainted by the scandal will top the list.  Hildur Sverrisdóttir, who is also an MP, is third and its very unlikely they get three seats so should be interesting. Foreign Minister Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson and party secretary & interim deputy chairman Áslaug Arna Sigurbjörnsdóttir gets the two top spots in the somewhat more left leaning Reykjavík North. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2017 21:50:43 GMT
To no ones surprise Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson joins the Centre Party.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 8:58:14 GMT
Dawn has given up on running nationally and have left it to the constituency chapters to decide if they will field candidates, which likely mean they will not be running in the three rural/provincial constituencies.
They also say they are open to cooperation with candidates based on Dawn's issues, which would most likely be from the Pirates or People's Party. They do not have much of a vote, but likely a small benefit for the Pirates, LG and the People's Party.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 9:21:37 GMT
The National Electorao Commission has published the boundary line between the two Reykjavík constituencies (always redefined to get as close to 50/50 as possible).  (I might post a better map later on, but this will do for now)If any of you know Reykjavík the boundary will be drawn from the center to the east along Hringbraut, Old Hringbraut, Miklabraut, Ártúnsbrekkur, and Vesturlandsvegur to the center of Sóltorg, and from there along the center line of Kristnibraut, Gvendargeisla and Biskupsgata to Reynivatnsvegur. From the intersection of Biskupsgata and Reynisvatnsvegar along the center line of Hólmsheiðarveg up to Haukdælabraut 66, from which a straight line is drawn to the municipal boundary. Even if far fewer hipsters can afford to actually live in 101 these days (and its getting fewer and fewer residents and more tourist housing all the time) I would still expect North to be significantly to the left of South (only one year since last time after all). |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 10:27:44 GMT
Very nerdy, but here is an explanation of the absentee ballot rules
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 13:15:02 GMT
Constitutional poll by MMR
Opinion of a new constitution becoming a reality in the next term
Important 56%
Not important 23.5%
Neither 20.5%
Important/not important by party:
Pirates 92/8
SDA 91/9
LG 76/21
PP 40/36
Vidreisn 39/39
IP 15/46
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Hildur Sverrisdóttir, who is also an MP, is third and its very unlikely they get three seats so should be interesting.