Icelandic parliamentary election, 2017

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Sept 19, 2017 15:30:42 GMT tamar said:

Sept 19, 2017 11:49:46 GMT @odo said:

SDA in disaster area right above the threshold (but that is most likely a coincidence, they have been higher in all polls since shortly after the election and no reason for them to tank now).

Could it not just be BF switchers returning home?

Its too big a drop (4-5 points) and it contradicts all recent polling + its in a poll by a pollster that often has odd results for minor parties. 

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Former Minister of Social Affairs Eygló Harðardóttir (PP) isn't seeking reelection. She refers to having argued for an 8 year term limit for Althing members and being elected in November 2008, but that seems like an obvious excuse (she did ran on 29 October 2016...). She is the most prominent politician from their Social Liberal left wing, and had intended to run for deputy chairman last year, but withdrew for Foreign Minister Lilja Dögg Alfredsdóttir in a compromise between the wings.

Apart from Eygló and Birgitta J. the Mayor of suburban Kópavogur Theodóra S. Þorsteinsdóttir (BF) leaves the Althing, she has been criticized for not spending much time in parliament. She is in coalition with IP in Kópavogur and on the right of her party. 

Six other MPs say they haven't decided yet. Including Pirate co-founder Smári McCarthy and former SDA chairman Oddný G. Harðardóttir, who is the only SDA MP with cabinet experience (only 3 LG MPs have that), so a loss for the left if she steps down. If McCarthy also leaves the Althing it clearly signals a switch towards a more liberal/centrist position on economics, he was the main supporter of Birgitta's left wing course. 

Unlike IP and SDA LG will hold their party conference on 6-8 October and use it to kick off their campaign. Deputy chairman Björn Valur Gíslason, who is the de facto leader of the party rural, europhobe and hardcore protectionist wing, steps down. He played a key role in blocking concessions to the Liberal parties in the government negotiations last autumn and has had a strong internal position as the right hand man of former party leader Steingrimur J. Sigfússon. This should give Katrin Jakobsdottir more flexibility if she needs BF and reduce the influence of Steingrimur S. considerably. 

SDG will run again (unwelcome, but unsurprising news for the PP leadership) and says he expects the party to hold a conference in October. His plan had reportedly been to challenge Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson for the leadership and transform his "debating society" the Progressive Society into a breakaway party if he lost, but the early election has blocked that, and the question is if he will still challenge SIJ (and if the leadership finds a way to postpone the conference). A leadership election a couple of weeks before the election would obviously be quite problematic. 

BF, Viðreisn and the People's Party will let a committee select their candidates, LG will likely just update their 2016 lists at constituency meetings. In IP it will be up to the constituencies how they select, and SDA/PP haven't decided if they are going to hold primaries. 

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LG tops Gallup poll of which parties people want to be in the next government:

LG 57%
PP 35%
SDA 33%
IP 31%
Pirates 30%
BF 26%
People's Party 19%
Viðreisn 19%
Dawn 4%

Noticeable that only 58% of Viðreisn voters want their party to be in government (79% of BF voters), all others have their own party above 90%.

The idea of a grand coalition seems most popular with LG voters where 18% have IP as preferred government partner. The 18% are almost certainly "rural reds", Reykjavík progressives abhor the idea. Only 3% of IP voters have LG as favorite partner despite Bjarni Ben's talk of a strong two-party government" and reforming the constitution gradually over three terms (an opening Katrín J. accepted with the caveat that the baseline needs to be the draft from the old Constitutional Council).

Preferred partners:

IP: PP
PP: IP

LG: SDA
SDA: LG

Viðreisn: Other (= BF), SDA among specified options)
BF: Other (= Viðreisn, SDA among specified options)

Pirates: SDA
People's Party: PP (only 22%, but still as high as SDA: 12 + LG: 10)

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The Ombudsman, Birgir Ármannsson, has told the constitutional and supervisory committee, with Tryggvi Gunnarsson that he doesn't consider it necessary to initiate a review of the actions of Minister of Justice Sigríður Andersen. He said that there was no confidentiality requirement on the part of the Minister of Justice when it came discussing the cases with the Prime Minister. He also has no comments on the procedure (including not informing the committee). Nor does he see any reason to examine other aspects of the case. This allows her to run in the election and makes it easier for IP to claim the breakup of the government was an overreaction.

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Eleven parties will try to field candidates, apart from the seven in the Althing and the People's Party its the Commies in the People's Front of Iceland, the far right Icelandic National Front and the eternal optimists in the civil rights movement descended Dawn. The Humanist Party, which broke the record for lowest number of votes last time with an impressive 33, have given up, and the other micro parties are focusing on the municipal elections in spring.

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Turns out both Pirates and PP tried preventing the election by forming a new government. The Pirates tried reinvigorating the old five party idea and was backed by SDA, but got nowhere with LG which wanted to cash in on their good polls, and PP suggested forming a government with LG/SDA, but couldn't get any of the other parties to guarantee its existence, so that never took off. A bit odd that SDA were afraid of an election, but it must be the "responsible party" syndrome (and maybe the theoretical risk of the threshold, but no quality poll has had them near it for months).

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The shire court in Reykjavík has found that Minister of Justice Sigríður Á. Andersen broke the Law of the Courts and the Law of Administration when she replaced four out of fifteen recommendations for the new High Court with her own picks, though the two complainants will get no compensation as they couldn't prove they had suffered an economic loss (they both have higher salaries in their current jobs). The new HC will act as a second tier in the court system between the shire courts (district courts) and the Supreme Court and is supposed to alleviate the case burden of the SC. The candidates Andersen handpicked were on a 33 candidate list and fully qualified, but the minister isn't supposed to pick and choose from the list (separation of powers etc.).

Not sure this is electorally relevant as IP voters have a high tolerance of "irregularities" (those who think Iceland is "a sub-Arctic banana republic" will have their beliefs confirmed, but they nearly all vote for the opposition already), on the other hand she is already a liability and this will increase her risk of losing the primary.

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Prolific anti-immigration debater Margrét Friðriksdóttir has joined the People's Party and intend to run in the municipal elections. She was the only well-known agitator of the small "Christian values", more police, surveillance and border control micro party the Freedom Party and is ex-IP. The Freedom Party basically consists of the core users of the facebook group Stjórnamálaspjallið (the political chat), a debating forum which has been taken over by xenophobes and cranks.

She claims to share the People's Party's values and agree with their platform, although she "would like a harsher line against asylum seekers and illegal immigrants". If they let her stay its a clear indication they are going full xenophobic (after it looked like Inga Sæland was distancing herself from that stuff). But maybe they will just try to get the xenophobic vote without changing policies. Hard to say how much Sæland actually cares about this issue.

Since the Icelandic far right is so amateurish and have never managed to get a party going (Liberals, Right Greens, Icelandic National Front, Freedom Party all flopped) they will invariably drift towards the People's Party, so if they aren't thrown out the character of the party could change (even if its few people). Though its worth noticing Dawn actually incorporated the Liberal Party without going right on immigration (the Liberals merging into civil rights based Dawn was one of the strangest moves in Icelandic politics..).

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University of Iceland poll (19-21/9) has LG in a comfortable lead at 30% with an enormous gender gap (40% women, 20% men). LG/SDA/Pirates have a majority, BF below the threshold.

LG 30% (22)
Pirates 10% (6)
SDA 8% (5)

IP 23% (15)
PP 11% (7)

Viðreisn 6% (3)
BF 3% (0)

People's Party 9% (5)

Others below 1% combined



87% say they are very likely to vote, which is surprisingly high (there has been fear of voter apathy and the president has been appealing to doing ones civic duty etc.

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LG normally has a roughly equal gender distribution, so this is spectacular (and could well be an outlier etc.). But assuming its accurate BF had a 2/3 female electorate last time, so if progressive/feminist women have chosen to coalesce around LG to "get things sorted out" the 3% may not be unrealistic, LG could also have picked up pro-welfare, but anti-xenophobic voters from the People's Party after it was announced on the 18th Margrét Friðriksdóttir joined them. Though all too early to say. Still waiting for Gallup.

When Agnes Sigurðardóttir became the first female bishop in 2012 after both her predecessors had been involved in covering up sexual abuse committed by clergy it was said that electing a woman was the only way to reestablish confidence in the church and assure things changed and it might be the same sentiment behind this. Though as tempting as it is to speculate this is just one poll.

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SDA has decided that none of its former MPs will be allowed on the lists in the Reykjavík constituencies in order to create a clean break with the past. This includes former leadership candidates Helgi Hjörvar and Sigríður Ingibjörg Ingadóttir, as well as former chairman and Foreign Minister Össur Skarphéðinsson. 

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Economist turned sheep farmer and co-op administrator Ásmund­ur Ein­ar Daðason, who was MP for first LG (2009-11) and then PP (2011-16), will challenge former Foreign Minister Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson for the no. 1 spot in the NW constituency (likely the only one that gives a seat on current polling numbers). Gunnar Bragi is a local boy made good, but became unpopular among fishers and farmers for insisting on Icelandic participation in the EU sanctions against Russia, losing one of the biggest markets for Icelandic fish and lamb. Ásmund­ur Ein­ar is a hardcore europhobe, who ditched LG when they didn't block an Icelandic EU membership application. 

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Sig­mund­ur Davíð Gunn­laugs­son has announced that he has left the Progress Party and "intends to join a new political party" before the election. No prize for guessing which party.  

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I will not reset the poll since a lot of people have already voted, and I assume no forum members would vote for the Cooperative Party (which is bound to include the most corrupt and paranoid people from the Progress Party). So far there is only one vote for PP anyway.

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SDG mentions the challenge to his ally Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson from Ásmund­ur Ein­ar Daðason in NW and from group chairman Þór­unn Eg­ils­dótt­ir against himself in the NE as the factor that made him decide to launch a new party, and says he couldn't accept the attempt to unseat his wing in the two strongest PP constituencies, and the prospect of being left in a small 5-6 member group without any support.

Until yesterday most had expected him to challenge SIJ one last time at the party conference (which would likely have been postponed to after he election) and then form a new party if he lost, in time for the municipal elections in spring. 

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PM poll from University of Iceland, which confirms the unusually large gender gap. 

Preferred PM:

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 46%
Bjarni Benediktsson 24%
Sig­urður Ingi Jó­hanns­son 10%
Someone else 20%

Most likely PM:

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 48%
Bjarni Benediktsson 35% 
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 6%
Someone else 8% 
Declined to answer 2%

Preferred PM by sub-groups:

Women

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 59%
Bjarni Benediktsson 18%

Men

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 34%  
Bjarni Benediktsson 29%

18-29

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 54%
Bjarni Benediktsson 17%

30-44

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 55%
Bjarni Benediktsson 17%

45-59

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 42%
Bjarni Benediktsson 26%

60+

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 38%
Bjarni Benediktsson 30%

Capital region

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 48%
Bjarni Benediktsson 25%
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 7%
Someone else 20%

Rest of the country

Katrín Jakobsdóttir 41%
Bjarni Benediktsson 22%
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 17%
Someone else 20%

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So far the chairman of PP in Reykjavík Sveinn Hjörtur Guðfinnsson, the chairman of their youth org in Reykjavík Ragnar Stefán Rögnvaldsson and Þorgrímur Sigmundsson, who is the chair of their chapter in Þingeyinga in their NE heartland have left PP for the Cooperative Party. The entire board of their chapter in the affluent suburb Mosfellsbær has also defected. PP in the capital area is mostly national populist so not surprising, but its a relatively small part of the party. 

No MPs have joined. The only one likely is Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson, but only if he loses the vote for the # 1 spot in the NE to Ásmundur Einar Daðason on 8 October. 

Þor­steinn Sæ­munds­son (MP 2013-16) has also joined the rebellion + two more local chairman from the NE. Most importantly the chairman of PP in Akureyri (the biggest town outside of the capital area with 20,000 inhabitants) Regína Helgadóttir has resigned. Gunnar Sigbjörnsson, former chairman of the PP associations in the NE constituency has also quit the party.

Its in Reykjavík and the NE that people are defecting. SIJs "home turf" in the South will stay loyal and the NW looks likely to do as well (though if Gunnar Bragi loses he will likely take some supporters with him).

.....

The economist Ólafur Ísleifsson will run for the People's Party. He is currently Senior Director of Quality at tiny Bifröst University, but has worked for the Central Bank of Iceland, the National Economic Institute, the Prime Minister's office and the IMF. Might help to have a well-respected academic on board.

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The parties have agreed on the pre-election Althing agenda (which includes abolishing the clause about reestablishing the honour of convicted felons, stopping deportation of some refugee families, and the right for disabled persons to administer the grant for hiring their personal assistants and act as their employer). 

SDA and the Pirates voted against the agreement because IP refused to accept a measure that would allow constitutional changes being implemented in one-term (as they have the Speaker they could have refused to put the other issues on the agenda). They claim Bjarni Benediktsson "took the Thing hostage" by forcing them to give up the constitutional reform proposal to avoid deporting refugee children and abolishing the honour reinstatement clause (thus showing disrespect to paedophilia victims and their families). 

Katrín Jakobsdóttir had presented a compromise proposal that would allow the Althing to pass constitutional reform with a 3/5 majority in the next term and then get it approved in a referendum if a majority consisting of minimum 25% of the electorate voted for them. This was agreed on by all parties except IP. 

When a similar clause was approved before the 2013 election set the quorum to 2/3 of parliamentarians and 40% of the electorate, which proved too high to get constitutional reform implemented. IP has suggested using three terms to gradually amend the constitution. 

The regular way to amend the constitution is for one parliament to approve the changes and the next to approve them, but the Althing has the right to agree on a procedure for doing it in one-term. The proponents of constitutional reform fear a two-term process will be too easy to block. The snap election means the matter suddenly became urgent again (the context being that most assume IP will get a bad election and have less opportunity to block/water down constitutional reform in the next parliament). 

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It looks like the new name for SDG's party will be the Centre Party (Miðflokkurinn) rather than the Cooperative Party to align with the Nordic centre parties, which is a bit ironic giving that the remaining Progress Party will be fairly close to the Norwegian Centre Party if SDG takes the most right wing parts of the party with him.

SIJ's election statement said that he wants to work with parties that "want to secure a strong health and education system and good transportation infrastructure. Improve the benefits of those who are vulnerable, the elderly, disabled and children. Reform the tax system to ease the tax burden on people with intermediate and low incomes and raise taxes on high incomes", so basically an invitation to work with LG and SD; a coalition that seems much more likely now (provided they get a majority). The Progress Party has historically worked well with LG's main predecessor the People's Alliance and the Rural Reds in LG would clearly prefer working with PP rather than "hipster-parties" like the Pirates and BF. So maybe it will end up with a Norwegian style "red-green" government, just with a significantly stronger left. 

(Miðflokkurinn is also the name of the economically centrist Faroese party for religious nutjobs and other gaybashers, but not a reference that will be a problem in Iceland)

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Leaking from PP to the Centre Party (or whatever its final name will be) has slowed down, but the chairman of their Women's League and the deputy chairman in Reykjavík (also a woman) have defected. Their only remain councillor in Reykjavík has said she will not run for parliament as she had promised, but hasn't defected yet. The other councillor they got elected in 2014, rapid Islamophobe Sveinbjörg Birna Sveinbjörnsdóttir, had already defected months ago. She is in the Progress Society that SDG founded and he has positioned himself well to the right of the PP leadership on immigration/refugees since 2016, so she is expected to join him. 

Dawn have confirmed they are running to keep up the good fight against "the insider society" (third time may be a charm..  ).