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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2017 17:42:08 GMT
From the MMR poll:
"Which party do you most want excluded from the next government?"
Options getting 5%+
LG voters: IP 57%, Centre 35% SDA voters: Centre 43%, IP 40%, Pirates 11% Pirate voters: IP 68%, Centre 21%, SDA 5%
PP voters: Pirates 30%, Centre 24%, IP 15%, Viðreisn 13%, SDA 7% (only 2% mention LG) Viðreisn voters: Centre 48%, Pirates 20%, People's Party 15%, IP 9%
IP voters: Pirates 63%, SDA 19%, LG 6%
Centre voters: Pirates 46%, LG 21%, SDA 13%, Viðreisn 12%, IP 7% People's Party voters: IP 40%, Pirates 29%, Viðreisn 10%, Centre 7%, SDA 5% (only 2% mention LG)
The poll confirm that most LG voters view IP as the main enemy. Apart from that the difference between PP and Centre voters is striking, and at least half of the People's Party electorate seems to be leftist (which fits the impression they gained LG leaning voters in the final week). PP is clearly the least controversial part to include, only 1-2% of the other parties' voters mention them, and no LG, Pirate, Centre or People's voters have them as "the worst".
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Post by tamar on Nov 24, 2017 19:42:29 GMT
The poll confirm that most LG voters view IP as the main enemy. They've really lost a chance (not entirely by their fault, but still) to establish themselves as the main left party in a new two-and-some-bits party system, haven't they?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 20:25:29 GMT
The poll confirm that most LG voters view IP as the main enemy. They've really lost a chance (not entirely by their fault, but still) to establish themselves as the main left party in a new two-and-some-bits party system, haven't they? That would have required them to get the c. 23% they had in the polls before the final week when they lost left leaning voters directly to PP and the People's Party. Its not really on the agenda post-election regardless of what they do. I am not sure they had a real chance to permanently become the one pole in a two party system given that both they and IP are on the same side of the "conservative" vs. "liberal" divide. Young Icelanders are increasingly on the "liberal" side, so the "liberal" parties have the biggest growth potential. I also think IP is likely to decline and lose voters to both "liberals" and right wing populists, so Iceland is more likely to experience continued fragmentation than getting a two party plus system. They benefitted for a long time from the near collapse of SDA, and given how many talented people that support SDA (incl. most journalists and artists, and many academics), it was always going to be hard to permanently keep SDA from surging. Once they got a chairman who didn't confirm to the stereotype of a Reykjavík elitist, had a bit of folksy charm and turned the party left SDA started to recover, and when the artists and creative class started to defect from BF they got back to double digits. I think SDA would have rebounded one way or the other regardless of what LG had done. The LG dilemma is that the left can only win if it also appeals to low income voters in rural and small town Iceland who aren't interested in progressive causes and constitutional reform, but bread and butter issues, and LG is the only leftist party with a chance to win them over as they are instinctively anti-liberal. This makes it counterproductive for them to cater too much to their urban voters. LG will lose many Reykjavík progressives if they go into government with "the enemy", but they will be picked up by other leftist or left leaning parties, so that isn't a problem for Katrín's chances to one day head a leftist government. They can then hope that seeing her as PM in a grand coalition will make some rural and suburban voters less afraid of "going left" and make up for their loses in Reykjavík. Even if SDA becomes bigger than LG Katrín Jakobsdóttir will still be the left's PM candidate by sheer force of personality, and having been PM once will reinforce that status. She is only 41 and likely to dominate Icelandic left wing politics for another two decades (if she doesn't tire of politics). So the LG leadership is playing the long game.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 24, 2017 23:25:54 GMT
They've really lost a chance (not entirely by their fault, but still) to establish themselves as the main left party in a new two-and-some-bits party system, haven't they? That would have required them to get the c. 23% they had in the polls before the final week when they lost left leaning voters directly to PP and the People's Party. Its not really on the agenda post-election regardless of what they do. I am not sure they had a real chance to permanently become the one pole in a two party system given that both they and IP are on the same side of the "conservative" vs. "liberal" divide. Young Icelanders are increasingly on the "liberal" side, so the "liberal" parties have the biggest growth potential. I also think IP is likely to decline and lose voters to both "liberals" and right wing populists, so Iceland is more likely to experience continued fragmentation than getting a two party plus system. They benefitted for a long time from the near collapse of SDA, and given how many talented people that support SDA (incl. most journalists and artists, and many academics), it was always going to be hard to permanently keep SDA from surging. Once they got a chairman who didn't confirm to the stereotype of a Reykjavík elitist, had a bit of folksy charm and turned the party left SDA started to recover, and when the artists and creative class started to defect from BF they got back to double digits. I think SDA would have rebounded one way or the other regardless of what LG had done. The LG dilemma is that the left can only win if it also appeals to low income voters in rural and small town Iceland who aren't interested in progressive causes and constitutional reform, but bread and butter issues, and LG is the only leftist party with a chance to win them over as they are instinctively anti-liberal. This makes it counterproductive for them to cater too much to their urban voters. LG will lose many Reykjavík progressives if they go into government with "the enemy", but they will be picked up by other leftist or left leaning parties, so that isn't a problem for Katrín's chances to one day head a leftist government. They can then hope that seeing her as PM in a grand coalition will make some rural and suburban voters less afraid of "going left" and make up for their loses in Reykjavík. Even if SDA becomes bigger than LG Katrín Jakobsdóttir will still be the left's PM candidate by sheer force of personality, and having been PM once will reinforce that status. She is only 41 and likely to dominate Icelandic left wing politics for another two decades (if she doesn't tire of politics). So the LG leadership is playing the long game. In what sense are LG 'conservative'?
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Post by tamar on Nov 24, 2017 23:58:40 GMT
That would have required them to get the c. 23% they had in the polls before the final week when they lost left leaning voters directly to PP and the People's Party. Its not really on the agenda post-election regardless of what they do. I am not sure they had a real chance to permanently become the one pole in a two party system given that both they and IP are on the same side of the "conservative" vs. "liberal" divide. Young Icelanders are increasingly on the "liberal" side, so the "liberal" parties have the biggest growth potential. I also think IP is likely to decline and lose voters to both "liberals" and right wing populists, so Iceland is more likely to experience continued fragmentation than getting a two party plus system. They benefitted for a long time from the near collapse of SDA, and given how many talented people that support SDA (incl. most journalists and artists, and many academics), it was always going to be hard to permanently keep SDA from surging. Once they got a chairman who didn't confirm to the stereotype of a Reykjavík elitist, had a bit of folksy charm and turned the party left SDA started to recover, and when the artists and creative class started to defect from BF they got back to double digits. I think SDA would have rebounded one way or the other regardless of what LG had done. The LG dilemma is that the left can only win if it also appeals to low income voters in rural and small town Iceland who aren't interested in progressive causes and constitutional reform, but bread and butter issues, and LG is the only leftist party with a chance to win them over as they are instinctively anti-liberal. This makes it counterproductive for them to cater too much to their urban voters. LG will lose many Reykjavík progressives if they go into government with "the enemy", but they will be picked up by other leftist or left leaning parties, so that isn't a problem for Katrín's chances to one day head a leftist government. They can then hope that seeing her as PM in a grand coalition will make some rural and suburban voters less afraid of "going left" and make up for their loses in Reykjavík. Even if SDA becomes bigger than LG Katrín Jakobsdóttir will still be the left's PM candidate by sheer force of personality, and having been PM once will reinforce that status. She is only 41 and likely to dominate Icelandic left wing politics for another two decades (if she doesn't tire of politics). So the LG leadership is playing the long game. In what sense are LG 'conservative'? Eurosceptic and protectionist, I presume.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2017 5:39:09 GMT
In what sense are LG 'conservative'? Icelanders use liberal vs. conservative for the other axis in Icelandic politics, where the liberals are those in favour of so-called "systemic changes" in fishing and agriculture (to market based systems), joining the EU and giving up on having an independent currency. You could say the conservatives are those who want Iceland to continue with the 1944 set up as a micro state that ignores being a micro state for all other purposes than defence, and want the state to guarantee that the whole country is inhabited regardless of the costs. In addition liberals also call LG conservative because they don't prioritize constitutional changes (even if they are nominally in favour of them). Being conservative on the "systemic" axis is what unites IP, PP and LG, and its usually harder for parties to compromise on the liberal-conservative axis than the left-right (given that the lib-con axis involves either-or choices).
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 25, 2017 16:31:25 GMT
In what sense are LG 'conservative'? Eurosceptic and protectionist, I presume. If I was Icelandic I would be both. It's a very special place.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2017 17:30:11 GMT
The government agreement has now been finalized and the three parliamentary groups were briefed about it today (no news about the content), but neither LG nor IP voted on it. The party councils of the three parties will vote on the agreement on Wednesday, and if its approved a Council of State will be held on Friday and the first ministerial meeting on 1 December (the 99th anniversary of the establishment of a sovereign Icelandic state).
The two internal critics in the LG parliamentary group, Andrés Ingi Jónsson and Rósa Björk Brynjólfsdóttir, have declined to say how they will vote until the council meeting at Wednesday.
Katrín J. has been called to Bessastaðir 10:30 tomorrow, where she will be given the mandate to form a government by the president.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2017 22:29:00 GMT
Kjarnan writes that LG and IP still haven't agreed on the tax structure and the national framework for environmental planning, and are arguing over whether the Central Bank should stay under the Prime Minister's office or be transferred back to the Finance Ministry, its Governor Már Guðmundsson is expected not to seek reappointment, so if it stays with the PM Katrín J. will be responsible for picking the next Governor. Sounds like pretty big things to me, so this could still turn sour.
IP also want the Speaker if they can not get a sixth ministry, a post LG founder Steingrímur J. Sigfússon (the Father of the Althing with 34 years seniority, 19 years more than no. 2) wants. But unclear if they have reached a compromise on this.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2017 22:54:34 GMT
Zenter poll conducted 10-21 November of which party leader voters prefer as PM has Katrín Jakobsdóttir higher than the three centre-right leaders combined. She has the most support among both genders, and in all age and income groups, support for her increases with educational level (and ofc higher among younger voters, women and in the capital area).
Katrín Jakobsdóttir 49.5 Bjarni Benediktsson 20.5 Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 10.2 Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 7.6
(no numbers for the rest, but all well below SDG)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2017 21:17:39 GMT
Some info on the government agreement has leaked. Some of the hot button issues are buried in commissions, which means they will resurface mid-term.
- capital income tax will be increased from 20% to 22%. - maternity/paternity leave will be prolonged from nine to twelve months and payments increased. - arrival and departure fees will be introduced, but no tax on tourist operators or higher VAT on tourist activities. - the room tax on hotels/guest houses will be changed to a percentage of the price and go to the municipalities rather than the state. - an economic Stability Fund based on income from energy resources, called the National Fund, will be established to level economic cycles. - increase the capacity of the electricity distribution network rather than build new power plants. - two inter-parliamentary committees will be appointed to look into revisions of the Constitution and the so-called foreigner law (regulating immigration and the rights of foreign citizens). - a commission will write a white paper on the restructuring of the financial system. - the banks will gradually be privatized and the proceeds invested in welfare and infrastructure. (so apparently good-bye to the idea of a community owned Landsbanki..)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2017 21:29:10 GMT
Kicking the can down the road when it comes to constitutional reform, immigration and the future of the banks was probably necessary to land a compromise, but not exactly resassuring regarding the long term stability of the government. They will inevitably start fighting about these issues when they resurface.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2017 22:18:13 GMT
The government this coalition is invariably compared to in the Icelandic media is the 1944-47 Innovation Government, formed by the Independence Party, the Social Democrats and the Socialists (#) with the task of using the profits from the war time boom to invest in the social and physical infrastructure of the new republic rather than "waste" it on consumpton. Now its the profits from the tourist boom that needs to be used wisely to upgrade Icelandic society and "prepare it for the fourth industrial revolution" etc. while also getting public welfare back to pre-crash level. Its this "once in a lifetime" feeling that lays behind much of the desire to have a strong and broad based government that can get things done rather than continue with political instability at this crucial moment. The "liberal" parties (esp. Viðreisn and the Pirates) ofc claim that setting the three pro-system/"conservative" parties to accomplish this is a recipe for stale, unambitious and unimaginative solutions.
(#) the Progress Party had declined to join because they felt IP had cheated them by supporting an electoral reform which reduced rural overrepresentation)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2017 15:52:34 GMT
The Pirates will present a motion of no confidence to Sigríði Á. Andersen, if she gets reappointed as Minister of Justice (as is reported she will be). Would be problematic for many in LG to support her.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2017 19:42:34 GMT
The two LG rebels Andrés Ingi Jónsson and Rósa Björk Brynjólfsdóttir will both vote against the government agreement, but say they haven't decided whether they leave the LG parliamentary group if it gets approved.
Andrés Ingi Jónsson is against the lack of an agreement on the future framework for national environmental planning. He also mentions:
Safe and good healthcare regardless of economy and the social situation not guaranteed.
No protection of the central highlands (do decision on recent report with four suggestions).
Lack of a more effective response to sexual offenses.
No digital sexual abuse law.
Unambitious refugee policy.
Too much of the agreement is based on trusting the partners.
"A treaty between the poles in Icelandic politics needs to be clear, especially in those cases where the parties have the most profound disagreements, There needs to be a deal on how to handle the issues". He mentions planning and private operators in healthcare and education as areas where they would have to trust IP ministers.
...
Rósa Björk Brynjólfsdóttir cites several points:
- privatization of the health service isn't rolled back. - fees on healthcare services aren't abolished. - lack of "bigger and more radical steps" when it comes to refugee reception and cooperation with developing countries.
She says the foreign affairs chapter in the treaty is a great disappointment "it's a total submission of the Left Greens, in my mind".
Looks like at least Rósa Björk will be in opposition to the government.
The LG meeting ends in about 1.5 hours (or at least is supposed to end then..).
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2017 19:46:30 GMT
The IP party council unanimously approved the agreement, but that was almost a given (though there might have been a couple of "no" votes).
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2017 22:01:17 GMT
The government agrement was approved by the LG party council with a 75-15 majority and three blank votes. So that's it. The grand coalition is on (well, the PP central board is still in meeting, but no chance of them saying no - all smiles in PP, they got what they wanted).
Tomorrow the three parliamentary parties will meet separately and the ministers of each party will be announced to their MPs, then a council of state will be held at Bessastaðir where the new government will be appointed by the president.
EDIT: As expected the PP Central Board unanimously approved the government agreement.
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polupolu
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Post by polupolu on Nov 30, 2017 10:27:36 GMT
Thanks Odo. Brilliant as always.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2017 11:06:06 GMT
The main points in government program:
● Strengthening the Althing is one of the priorities of the government parties. The independence of the Assembly will be strengthened, including increased support for committee work and the parliamentary parties.
● Cross-political groups will be set up on a number of important issues, such as the establishment of the Highland National Park, the formulation of energy policy and innovation policy and revision of the Constitution.
● The healthcare system must be in line with what is happening in the world and all citizens should enjoy good services, regardless of their economy and residence. Efforts will be made in the development of a comprehensive health and nursing home policy for Iceland, reduced patient fees and a mental health plan implemented.
● Higher education funding will be expected to reach the average of OECD countries by 2020. Professional education and business and vocational education will be strengthened. Secondary schools will be guaranteed funds and freedom to pursue their own policies within the national framework. An impending teacher shortage will be solved in cooperation with the municipalities.
● Road construction will be accelerated, both new construction and maintenance. The construction of a city line will be supported. Iceland's fibre optic cable development will be completed by 2020, the security of supply of electricity will increase and efforts will be made in the field of waste management in cooperation with local authorities. The regional planning will be strengthened.
● Emphasis will be placed on responsible fiscal and economic stability. To support the successful outcome of wage settlements, the government intends to emphasize a decrease in income tax for low income earners. It is also a priority during the term of office to lower the social insurance fee.
● The idea increasing the VAT on tourism will be set aside. The capital income tax will be increased from 20% to 22% concurrently with the tax base of capital income being reviewed. Carbon emission fees will be increased by 50%. The VAT on books will be abolished.
● Restructuring of the financial system will be undertaken and a significant step taken to abolish indexation of consumer loans. Ways to reduce state ownership of financial institutions will be pursued. A white paper about a vision for the Icelandic financial sector will be drafted and submitted to the Althingi.
● Responsibility on the labour market must be promoted. Provisions for chain liability in different industries will be undertaken, gender-based wage differentials, social dumping, human trafficking combated, and ID numbers and work place-enforcement will be introduced (when it comes to illegal workers).
● Promotion should be made to improve access for the population to safe housing with enhanced support systems, coordinated development of social housing and increased transparency in the rental market. The threshold of young people and low income families in the housing market will be reduced. There will be opportunities to utilize pension savings to buy houses (the PP idea).
● Targeted steps will be taken during the term in office for the removal of indexation of loans and, at the same time "countermeasures" for young people and low income earners.
● The income tax free rate of employment for the elderly (pensioners) will be raised to 100,000 krónur immediately by the end of the year. Fees for dental care for the elderly and disability pensioners will be updated to reduce the costs for these groups. Consultations will be held with the aim of an overall reorganization of disability pensioners and reform of the social security system for their benefit.
● An assessment will be made of the terms of the lowest-income groups in Icelandic society, proposals for remedial action and follow-up undertaken.
● On climate policies the government will aim to do better than the Paris Agreement states. A goal of a carbon-free Iceland will be set for 2040 and a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Climate change mitigation will be established and an action plan for emission reductions will be timed and funded.
● A National Fund will be founded based on dividends from the country's (natural and fiscal) resources, starting with the energy resource. The Fund's role must be to meet financial shocks and increase resilience. A demarcated part of the Fund's disposable means will be used to promote economic innovation and launch efforts in the development of nursing homes.
● Iceland should be a leader in the production of healthy agricultural products. Emphasis will be placed on innovation and product development in agriculture to promote rural tourism, increase value creation and exploit opportunities that involve interests in food culture with sustainability and quality as a guiding principle. Special adjustments will be introduced for new rural activities.
● Ensure the competitiveness of fisheries, emphasize sustainable resource utilization and promote marine research. Fishing fees should ensure the people a fair share in the dividend of the resource. Fish farming is a growing sector that offers opportunities for job development, but needs to be built out with the utmost caution in accordance with the advice of scientists.
● A long-term policy in tourism will be established in cooperation with stakeholders. Research in the industry and infrastructure development will be supported.
● A comprehensive innovation policy for Iceland will be formulated in cooperation with representatives of political parties and in close consultation with industry and the scientific community. It will be integrated with the vision of education, from preschool to university, in consultation with the education community.
● The environment for research and development should be outstanding. The arrangements for research and development reimbursement will be reviewed in order to eliminate the ceiling for such reimbursement.
● An action plan on improvements in the treatment of sexual offenses will be launched and fully financed. The justice system's infrastructure will be strengthened to strengthen the position of victims within it and to promote and coordinate the country-wide assistance to crime victims, not least within the healthcare system. The legal framework for sexual offenses will be reviewed with the aim of strengthening the status of complainants in of sexual offenses.
● Iceland should be at the forefront of the issues of queer people. To this end, ambitious new legislation on sexual autonomy will be introduced.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2017 11:14:29 GMT
As expected they are kicking the can down the road on some important issues (as previously mentioned), and a lot of it is a bit fluffy, but all in all its a fairly ambitious vision of an "updated" Icelandic society and IMO a reasonable left/right compromise.
Positively surprised the Highland National Park is still on the agenda.
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