Icelandic parliamentary election, 2017

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 31, 2017 21:03:24 GMT @odo said:

Oct 31, 2017 14:14:51 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Big Fishing sounds like the least scary complex imaginable!

I suppose its different if you haven't lived in a fishing based society. There is a lot of money in high sea fishing in the North Atlantic/Arctic and an overlap with finance because the owners are the ones with the capital who control other sectors of the economy. Its also a business that has a sinister side with pirate fishing in the waters of poor countries and unregulated places like the High Arctic since its a commodity whose origin is difficult to control. In the North Atlantic smugling of drugs and contraband is also connected to fishing. 

Some people build an empire based on capital earned in fishing: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kjell_Inge_Røkke

I had an interesting chat in the Faroes with a retired fisherman* who told us how much contraband the Faroese get up to...and how a free cod to the customs inspector tends to solve problems.

*He walked over, handed us an akvavit each, and we couldn't get rid of him.

[Deleted]

Okay, it seems the cryptic "4-6 parties as need be" refer to an extension of the opposition based government to secure a safer majority, and not a re-opening of the left-right scenario SIJ proposed to the president.

LG, SDA and the Pirates want Viðreisn in the government. The two "liberal" parties to secure a better balance, and LG because they fear that a single defection from PP to Centre could topple the government. The main suspect of this is Ásmundur Einar Daðason, who was MP for LG 2009-11 before he defected to PP, he used to be very close to SDG. PP prefer the People's Party as the fifth party in the government to avoid Viðreisn. Their welfare policies would align better with the left than right, but its unclear if they can function in a government (they basically promised all things to all people). Six parties would then be the compromise to include both. So PP still try to avoid going into government with SDG.

PP wants the state to buy Arion Banki (3rd largest bank), to avoid foreign hedge funds getting it (but not to donate a third of to the public as SDG wants ). PP and LG have both categorically refused to reopen the EU issue. Otherwise the parties are said to agree on more funds for education and healthcare, restructuring of the publicly owned banks and massive investments in infrastructure + low wage increases to public employees in the coming collective wage agreements to avoid a budget deficit.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Oct 31, 2017 14:14:51 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Big Fishing sounds like the least scary complex imaginable!

Everybody thinks that, until they come home to find a fermented shark's head in their bed...

[Deleted]

The four opposition parties are still negotiating. It seems the plan is to craft a compromise between the three centre-left parties and PP on the fundamentals before they consider whether to start talks with Viðreisn and the People's Party.

Normally well informed Vísir says the parties have agreed that the underlying reason for the voter's "political fatigue" and distrust of the political system is the many scandals and corruption affairs in Icelandic politics (while that is obvious getting "continuity PP" to agree on it is an important milestone) and that there should therefore be a government without Bjarni Ben and SDG (Vísir calls this a "Panama Prince-less" government - Panamaprinsalaus is a great word  ). Vísir also says Katrín Jakobsdóttir will lead the government.

In addition to the topics I mentioned in my last post they will also try to agree on measures to alleviate the housing crisis, and the financial system restructuring will include interest rate policy (probably code for ditching indexation, which PP abhor), community banking/public bank, a revised pension fund system and "the Swiss model" (the PP idea of letting first time buyers use their pension funds for the downpayment on a house). They are said to largely agree on a reform of the constitution and the fishing quota system. But seemingly no tax reform (which will also be hard if Viðreisn needs to get aboard), so the financing is still unclear, but I suppose fishing reform will mean some element of auctioning off quotas.

Both the trade union confederation ASÍ and the confederation of Icelandic employers SA are said to back the establishment of a broad left/center coalition, and be prepared to engage in tripartite negotiations with it about wage structure and pensions.
....

If PP have decided they won't ally with IP as long as Bjarni Ben is in charge that likely dooms him as party leader (his internal position isn't all that strong after their 2nd worst election ever). Current Foreign Minister Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson is the only serious contender to replace him, but will likely be a transitional figure.

Inga Sæland says she can see her party entering a government with the opposition parties, that she has always been "left-minded", and that she was only playing along with the idea of an understanding of sorts with SDG for fun after he gave her a lift to Bessastaðir. 

[Deleted]

Well, too many contradicting reports at the moment. It seems Katrín J. still wants to try forming a four party opposition government, and that SIJs ambition of a six party government hasn't been accepted by the other opposition parties, not even internally where Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir is still trying to reconcile SIJ and SDG. The president is expected to give out the mandate today or tomorrow.

EDIT: The four parties are discussing the situation in their groups and with key people within their party this evening and meeting again tomorrow to decide whether Katrín should request the mandate to form a government.

[Deleted]

Apparently SDG and SIJ held talks about potential cooperation, so maybe they will team up with IP after all (though Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson states this cooperation could go either left or right..). We shall see. The source is Morgunblaðið, which has an obvious interest in promoting this idea. Their personal relationship has been really bad, and their priorities differ quite a bit, but ofc many would like the party reunited and SIJs internal position may be weaker than most observers assumed. 

PP gained a much larger vote than would otherwise have been possible by splitting up in two parties, which appealed to partly different electorates. A lot of the LG leaning voters who went "continuity PP" in the end would never have voted for a PP with SDG in it, and some elderly lifelong IP voters voted Centre because it was perceived as the most anti-immigrant and nationalist option and seemed guaranteed never to ally with the left.

[Deleted]

Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir has been called to a meeting with the president at 4 pm. So she is getting the mandate.

[Deleted]

She has received the mandate with no exact deadline, but is to report back to the president after the weekend to say if the negotiations have moved forward. The talks will start tomorrow and its expected they reach a decision on whether to form a government over "the next days". Katrín says that government formation should be finished before the Althing is convened and brushed aside questions about adding more parties. It sounds as if they are fairly close to an agreement (and I doubt PP would have accepted she got the mandate if they weren't) Fingers crossed. I think this is the only combo that would have a decent chance of finishing a full term, and Iceland could do with some political stability.

Based on comments by Viðreisn MPs they seem to be ready to support the government agenda outside of tax issues, so it will in reality have a fairly strong position and could carry on even if someone defected from PP to Centre. I do not expect Viðreisn to join them even if invited, they need to raise their ideological profile and going into an anti-EU government with no agricultural reforms (and possibly a few tax hikes) on its agenda would prevent that. 

[Deleted]

Katrín said they will concentrate on the structure of healthcare, education and infrastructure, the labour market situation (= tripartite negotiations) + gender equality and climate issues, and changing working methods in parliament, and that the ministeries will be partly restructured. So no mentioning of tax reform, housing, new constitution and restructuring of the banks/fiscal system, but I am sure PP have demanded the latter is addressed. Interesting to see whether the Pirates will get a constitutional reform, if they have caved on that they might very well implode, but given how much emphasis SDA also put on this I expect that something will be done.

EDIT: According to SIJ constitutional reform in some way is on the agenda. 

[Deleted]

Iceland has a low limit for individual campaign contributions to parties and candidates on 400,000 ISK (just under £2,900) and the parties need to report all donations to the National Audit Office, but its easy to circumvent. NGOs don't need to explain how they spent their money during campaigns and they aren't bound by limits on maximum amounts. It turns out the vast majority of the negative radio and social media ads (scaremongering about taxes + the EU and the Pirate "revolution") were paid for by the Samtök skattgreiðenda (Taxpayer's Association) founded in 2012 by businessman (and IP member) Skafti Harðarson and with a Board of Directors solely made up of IP members (granted that is like 8-10% of the adult population..). Skafti Harðarson founded the Libertarian Society (Félags frjálshyggjumanna) back in 1979 (on the birthday of Friedrich Hayek ofc ), and it attracted many young people from the IP right wing and was supported by more established IP politicians like Davíð Oddsson. It was closed in 1989 (the year Davíð O. became deputy leader), when IP had adapted more Thatcherist views on economics (outside agriculture) and it was felt its work had been done.

Icelandic campaign finance laws are basically worthless as long as you can circumvent them that easily, and there is the issue of whether public broadcaster RÚV should accept political radio ads (or at least whether they should accept negative ads).

[Toylyyev]

Nov 1, 2017 12:32:03 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Oct 31, 2017 14:14:51 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Big Fishing sounds like the least scary complex imaginable!

Everybody thinks that, until they come home to find a fermented shark's head in their bed...

I do suspect that the persuasion indulging in the dish below would not

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surströmming

[Devil Wincarnate]

Nov 1, 2017 12:32:03 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Oct 31, 2017 14:14:51 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Big Fishing sounds like the least scary complex imaginable!

Everybody thinks that, until they come home to find a fermented shark's head in their bed...

"John West tells me you paint houses"...

[Deleted]

Stundin has digged deeper into the effect of the anonymous negative campaign ads on social media and how they were active on 2016 as well. On average each adult Icelander would have seen 5-6 of these ads during 2016/17. 89% of Icelanders are on facebook (its a family and community oriented culture), so they had a large effect, far greater than in a bigger country. There is an obvious correlation between the launching of the negative ads and the collapse of the Pirates in 2016 and LG in 2017, though other factors were ofc at work as well (correlation does not equal causation etc.). 

The biggest player on YouTube "Kosningar 2017" also had ads up in 2016 (as "Kosningar 2016"), and in total their ads were seen twice by each Icelander on average. Their video with Katrín as "Tax Happy Kata" (a witch like figure) was a particular hit with 195,000 views.

In 2016 the biggest "hit" was an old clip of a young and long haired Smári McCarthy talking about how great it would be that technological advances and a basic income would allow 40-50% of the population not to work in the future. "Aldrei aftur vinstristjórn" (never a left wing government again) repeated that clip in one of their most popular videos this year. 

The article says Facebook will implement rules that force distributors of political ads to state their identity and allow viewers to check what other political videos they have posted (or rather prevent advertisers from hiding that).

IP has refused to comment on the function of negative ads and tried to diverge the debate to the negative attitude of the media in general. A former IP youth wing activist, who defected to Viðreisn because he thought their style of politics is too negative (so obviously not unbiased), said they have a two layered campaign with a department for dirty tricks.





(they use polling numbers from Gallup, which never had LG quite as high as others in 2017)

[Deleted]

PP have terminated the four party negotiations because they consider the majority is too narrow to get major reforms implemented, it is reported that its distrust of the Pirates' ability to deliver their six votes every time that has led to the decision, so Björn Levi and his principles. 

Katrín J. keeps the mandate and will probably try to include Viðreisn and the People's Party before she turns to IP. LG have ruled out working with Centre.

She is meeting the president at 5 pm. 

[Deleted]

Asked whether he will consider IP, PP, Centre and People's Party SIJ says that he will not rule it out, but "I have emphasized that a government in order to create political stability needs a broad appeal. I can't see this would answer that requirement."

This de facto leaves two options:

a) Left/PP + People's Party and/or Viðreisn­.

b) Grand coalition between the four old parties (SDA and LG are seen as old as they are viewed as continuity parties of the Social Democrats and People's Alliance). PP and IP would like LG/PP/IP, but LG are unlikely to accept that (even if Katrín was offered to lead it).

Viðreisn have ruled out going into government with IP, Centre and the People's Party, but may accept the People's Party in a left/centre combo, where their influence would be less prevalent.

[Toylyyev]

Nov 6, 2017 14:26:46 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Tho' consistent repetitions of errors are worth pointing out as that's not a typo or thinko, but a misunderstanding of what they are trying to write. Voter vs elector, of vs have, deny vs refute, definate vs definite, etc.

Thats because these are concepts (have grown into such), or modelisations if formalized, as long as one stays within philosophical logic.

On a neurobiological level they'd be rather called higher-level patterns, or more actionable ones, as opposed to syntactic ones which would be closer to sensory mappings.

[Deleted]

Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir says she will hand the mandate back to the president. Its a bit surprising, but most likely she will avoid being forced into grand coalition talks yet (and PP have reportedly de facto vetoed Viðreisn as "too liberal"). She will advise the president not to give the mandate to anyone else, but open up for a new round of informal talks.

Last year one of the first combinations ended up being the final one after several others (including a grand coalition) had been tried, and this may end up being the outcome again. LG's biggest trump towards PP is that they can force them to choose between the centre-right combination with the two populist parties (which is likely to collapse after a year or so) and the left/centre option simply by not accepting a grand coalition, though they will be careful to appear "constructive" along the way.

[Deleted]

Viðreisn demanded a referendum on reopening the EU-membership talks as their price for entering the government, which is why PP wouldn't accept them (seems Viðreisn - quite understandably - want something tangible to show to the voters if they are to enter another coalition). This also rules them out as a partner for IP. Somewhat interesting that PP deputy leader Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir apparently issued her categorical refusal of PP accepting an EU referendum without the blessing of SIJ.

Inga Sæland has declined to negotiate about joining a Left/PP coalition (PP had talked with them about this earlier last week), and says "that project has finished". She recommend giving the mandate to Bjarni Ben.

So it seems we are down to either a grand coalition, IP/PP + populists or a return to the Left/PP option if the other two fail.

[Deleted]

The likely position of the parties at the start of Round 2: 

LG: Will attempt to appear constructive and engage in negotiations with everybody - except SDG and Centre - hoping to get back to Left/PP in the end. Katrín J. will be under a lot of pressure to enter a grand coalition if IP/PP make her a good enough offer. Both from the media, public opinion and the Rural Reds within the party (but their position is weaker than last year). Doing so without SDA would result in a grassroots rebellion and heavy loses in the next election and is therefore very unlikely, but can not be ruled out (though Iceland isn't the Netherlands and Icelandic parties are less prone to commit electoral suicide that their Dutch counterparts).

SDA: Have already talked about going into "hard opposition" if a centre/left option doesn't happen. The chances of them entering a grand coalition seems slim.

Pirates: Would have preferred to broaden the Left/PP option (with Viðreisn as their first priority), but are now out of options and will only become relevant again if the Left/PP option reemerges.

Viðreisn: Seems de facto to have decided to go into opposition.

People's Party: Very hard to say, as Inga Sæland could potentially get personal fiscal benefits from entering a centre-right government (as this is the preferred option of certain people with access to big off-shore accounts), and its hard to say whether she is for sale. But assuming she isn't they are likely looking for an excuse to remain in opposition fearing that partaking in a government would make them a one-term phenomenon, but preferably to an IP led government (as most of their voters would be more comfortable with this). Might be willing to provide confidence and supply to an IP/PP/Centre government, but such a minority government would be quite unattractive to both IP and PP.

PP: Would prefer PP/LG/IP, which would result in compromises very close to their policies, and could accept SDA joining. If this fails SIJ would prefer a return to Left/PP, but Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir and parts of their base (incl. one of the big coops which MP Ásmundur Einar Daðason works for) would prefer IP/PP/Centre/People's Party as their backup option. In which case it will be revealed whether "the strongest deputy leader in Icelandic politics" has her chairman by the balls, as some say, or he is in charge after all.

IP: Bjarni Ben and most of the party would prefer IP/PP/LG (hoping to be able to ditch LG after the next election), and could live with SDA joining, but the right wing and the big fishing companies would prefer teaming up with PP/Centre/People's Party. IP is expected to always seek to be in government, so Bjarni Ben would have no choice but to pursue this option, but he might do so half-heartedly and then go for a new election in spring alongside the municipal elections, appealing to the need for stability (he would still be in charge of the caretaker government until then). 

[Deleted]

Guðni Th. Jó­hann­es­son has decided not to give the mandate to anyone just yet, but will instead let the party leaders conduct another round of informal talks.

Icelandic journalists seem to consider IP-LG-SDA as the only realistic grand coalition possibility as it includes fewer parties and has a nearly even right/left balance (16/18), and with Katrín Jakobsdóttir as PM because the two left wing partes have more seats than IP. Talk of this combination could ofc also be used to put pressure on PP (from both sides).

The chairman of Viðreisn has stated that a referendum on EU talks isn't a condition for them to enter a government, so they are back in the game.