Icelandic parliamentary election, 2017

[Deleted]

The President has given the parties to tomorrow afternoon to continue the informal talks. After that Bjarni Ben will presumably get the mandate unless the talks lead in a different direction.

More details about the breakup of the four party talks:

1) The PP distrust of the Pirates wasn't primarily because of Björn Levi and his principles, but because PP feared the Pirates would face an internal rebellion and crack under the pressure after having dropped their high profiled issues (as BF did), given that they had caved on a fast track to a new constitution and all restructuring of fishing and agriculture. PP had dropped their idea of letting young people use their pension funds as deposit on a house, LG some of their most ambitious environmental policies, and SDA the EU referendum.

2) Internal division in PP where especially ex-LG MP Ásmundur Einar Daðason was against the center/left government.

3) The parties hadn't agreed on all major issues and there was some doubt whether it was possible to reach agreement on enough issues.

The first point was allegedly the most important one.

...

There seems to be considerable bitterness in SDA about PP "falsely" negotiating without a serious wish to commit, some allegations that they entered the talks solely because they knew Katrín J. needed an attempt to form a non-IP government in order to pacify her "Reykjavík wing" before IP/PP/LG could get on the table.
According to Logi Már Einarsson Bjarni Ben has never called him and the two have never talked face to face. They clearly do not respect each other, and Logi Már said three days before the election that his party wouldn't go into a coalition with IP, so its still hard to see SDA do so even if they get Viðreisn in as a second "liberal" voice (and LG can not really do it without SDA).

Jón Gnarr has likened Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir being asked about SDGs comment that she was "a Centre woman within PP" and answering in a flustered manner without saying she was fully committed to her party to a scene from "Borgen". He is definitely right about that.

Katrín has been criticized for once again failing to form a Left/Centre coalition, and for the LG campaign being too defensive and focused on signalling "we can provide stability as well as IP" and not rocking the boat in order to keep up their high poll numbers, which allegedly caused voters to get confused about what they really wanted to do. Probably some truth to this, but it isn't entirely fair as the attack ads that sunk them focused on (twisted versions of) specific policy proposals. The "we are the (only) alternative to IP" narrative might have worked if they had gone negative and said "a vote for PP and the People's Party is a vote for the Panama Princes", but their party culture is very "serious and sober" and Katrín too much of a "good girl" for them to consider that, and they clearly considered PP a potential ally based on the brief government formation talks between the opposition parties before the election.

[Deleted]

According to Morgunblaðið Katrín Jak­obs­dótt­ir has demanded to become PM in a grand coalition with IP and PP, and that SDA are included. Bjarni Ben has refused her becoming PM. They cite PP sources for saying that SIJ and Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir expect a grand coalition of IP/PP/LG to go through if Katrín J. gets to lead it (but that seems like wishful thinking, hard to see LG going into it without SDA).

So the LG tactic seem to be giving IP the choice between accepting the "junior" role (which would allow LG/PP/SDA to continue if IP leave, as minority governments are acceptable in Iceland if they come about through defection from the government and the Pirates would back it), or sink the grand coalition talks and move on to Round 3, where PP will be forced to choose between the left and IP + populists. A situation where PP would most likely go left, and a very problematic government to lead if they go right. Inga Sæland has said the People's Party have two non-negotiable demands for entering a government: A 300,000 ISK personal tax allowance and a ban on indexation. The first would undermine the tax system and would likely be unacceptable for IP.

[Deleted]

Gallup's last pre-election poll (published 27 October) had an average deviation to the election result of 1.2 percentage point, slightly higher at 1.3 point when only including the parties running in all six constituencies, but down to 0.23 point when only looking at the two largest parties, IP and LG. Pretty impressive and clearly the closest to the election result of all pollsters.

[Deleted]

No one has gotten the mandate yet while LG, PP and IP continue their talks (likely because the President doesn't want to interfere in the sensitive matter of who should lead such a government). Both SDA and IP are reportedly unwilling to go into coalition with each other, so the only grand coalition option on the table is between the three "conservative" parties. Katrín J. demands to become PM and PP have reportedly backed her in this, while IP can't accept it. But its hard to see how LG can enter a coalition where they are the only left wing party without at least getting to lead it. They would still lose some voters (and members) to SDA and possibly some of the leftist micro parties such as Dawn and the new Socialist Party of Iceland, but they would at least get the PM effect in the polls and control over when the next election will be called. 

Inga Sæland says she hasn't been contacted by any party leaders yet, and its hard not to think that Bjarni Ben and SIJ are essentially bluffing when they mention the centre-right alternative with the two populist parties. I doubt anyone of them would be willing to actually form this wobbly combo, the question is if LG will call their bluff to force PP back to the left/centre talks. The Pirates have denied they caved on the constitutional matter and encouraged PP and Viðreisn to set their differences aside and partake in a left/centre coalition. 

Steingrímur J. Sigfússon, who is temporary Speaker of the Althing, has called the chairs of the parliamentary parties to a meeting tomorrow to decide on committee memberships and other procedural matters. The Althing has to be convened before the end of the year to pass a budget (which will be based on the draft the previous government submitted), and a few other matters such as the agreement on user-controlled personal assistance (NPA) for disabled people (giving them an employer rule).  But I would expect him to convene it earlier regardless of the government formation talks. 

[Deleted]

The LG, IP, PP negotiations are moving along, but haven't advanced to formal talks yet, and it seems unlikely anyone will get the mandate before the three parties have either agreed on the main lines or terminated them.

Katrín confirms they suggested LG, IP, SDA to SDA, but SDA turned it down. She also says PP and LG are still talking to SDA and Pirates about reinvigorating the four party cooperation.

The three "liberal" parties (SDA, Viðreisn, and Pirates) have met to coordinate their policies and "offer LG and PP an alternative."

[Deleted]

Morg­un­blaðið writes that a majority of the IP parliamentary group have accepted that Katrín Jakobsdóttir leads the government, which probably means its going to happen. If IP are willing to accept not leading the government, they are likely also flexible enough to find the necessary compromises on policy.  Bjarni Benediktsson will then become Minister of Finance as he was 2013-16. Morg­un­blaðið  writes that "the country needs a powerful Minister of Finance in the current situation", so they are already trying to sell it to Conservative voters. 

IP have only once before accepted a PM from the left, in 1947-49 when Social Democrat Stefán Jóhann Stefánsson led a grand coalition with IP and PP, they have never been in a government with LG and only once with its predecessor the People's Alliance (in 1980-83 when Gunnar Thoroddsen from IP led an IP/PP/PA grand coalition. 

[Deleted]

There is still a chance/risk the talks could break down over policy issues, but in all likelihood the LG leadership have concluded that SIJ's internal position isn't strong enough for PP to "go left" and the alternative therefore is an IP/PP/Centre minority government, which would have 31 seats and be the strongest minority option. 

The President is obliged to accept the strongest possible minority government if no majority government can be formed, and I think that will be the situation if these talks break down. LG/SDA/Pirates/Viðreisn would then have 28 seats and IP/PP/Centre 31. So the power balance between SIJ and Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir within PP would be decisive, and she has pushed "reconciliation" with SDG. You could argue the centre-left option would de facto be stronger as it would have more options for cooperation, but it would be hard for the President to justify making that call (he is considered an SDA supporter and would be accused of partisanship). 

[Deleted]

Logi Már Einarsson is now trying to get the People's Party aboard in the left/liberal alternative, which would offer LG a choice between two majority governments, but its really hard to see that constellation functioning, and it seems more like a way of blaming Katrín J. for "going right" (he says its her choice "whether she will go right or left"). Looks like the blame game is on.

In a reply the new LG deputy chairman Prof. Edward Hujbens says there is a "strong, silent xenophobia" within the People's Party and that PP has made it abundantly clear they will not work with Viðreisn.

[Deleted]

A five hour meeting in the LG parliamentary about whether to enter formal government negotiations with IP/PP has just ended. They are clearly deeply divided. The meeting will be resumed at 1 pm tomorrow. Both IP and PP have already agreed to start formal negotiations.

SDA chairman Logi Már Einarsson has managed to get the People's Party to commit to entering a Liberal/Leftist coalition, which at the moment means that LG can choose between leading a grand coalition with IP/PP or a wobbly five party coalition with a one seat majority, but a more leftist profile. Sæland & Co. have also dropped all demands on refugee policy, which makes it harder for LG to rule them out. But both during the campaign and afterwards LG have emphasized the need for political stability and urgent solutions on healthcare, education, infrastructure, housing and labour market. If they can get IP to move towards the centre on these issues and get increased funds for welfare their leadership probably prefer that to heading the broadest and most heterogenous coalition ever formed in Iceland. Many in LG consider the People's Party racist and Viðreisn a "radical free market party" to the right of IP on economics, and rural LG see the Pirates as the main treat to rural interests. So teaming up with all three of them in a one seat majority may be a bit much, but their core voters in Reykjavík hate the idea of governing with IP (and especially Bjarni Ben, who is viewed as corrupt - some talk of him not entering the government, but that seems completely unrealistic).

Worth noticing that PP can no longer block a "Panama Prince-less government", which might make them more flexible if the grand coalition attempt fail, ending up in opposition after being touted as kingmakers would be viewed as a big failure.

The only thing that seems reasonably certain by now is that Katrín Jakobsdóttir will be the next PM.

[Deleted]

Apart from "silent xenophobia" etc. the problem with the People's Party in a Left/Liberal government is that two of their MPs (former police chief Karl Gauti Hjaltason and cranky economist Ólafur Ísleifsson) are pretty clearly right wingers. So even if Inga Sæland herself and disabled org founder Guðmundur Ingi Kristinsson could function in an LG/SDA dominated coalition and their poverty eradication and "integration of the marginalized" policies fit a left-leaning government better the party would probably break apart if they "go left". For whatever reason (expediency, sympathy, naivety) Inga Sæland opened her party to rigt wing populist types and now two of them are in her parliamentary group.

[Deleted]

The LG parliamentary group decided to enter formal negotiations with IP/PP with a 9-2 majority on the final vote. Only Andrés Ingi Jóns­son and Rósa Björk Brynj­ólfs­dótt­ir voted against.

This doesn't mean the grand coalition will happen or that everyone who voted to try will approve the final negotiation result, but it does make it fairly likely that a compromise can be found because the LG leadership must have gotten significant concessions in the preliminary talks to get this approved with such a large margin.

Lots of critique of LG for whitewashing the corruption culture within IP (and Bjarni Ben personally) and disregarding the "reestablished honour for child molesters" affair that unleashed the election (the latter was seemingly the main reason Rósa Björk Brynj­ólfs­dótt­ir voted against it).

While I can see the point in securing better welfare and preventing privatization of the banks (which any centre-right government would do), I still think PP are likely bluffing and would have had to go back to the Left (or Left/Liberals) if the grand coalition had failed (though its hard to evaluate that as an outsider).  

[Deleted]

Resolution from the LG youth org:

"The Young Left Greens will always condemn actions that are contrary to Left Green policy and in opposition to the grassroots. Young Left Greens strongly oppose the fact that the Left Greens are entering government co-operation with the Independence Party. We can not accept recurrent lies, corruption and nepotism. We can not accept secrecy about sexual offenders. Doing things outweighs words and we in the Left Greens need to show what we stand for by refusing to form a government with the Independence Party. Such government co-operation is not the right way to safeguarding the interests of the nation. We urge the parliamentary group to show responsibility for the future by not going into a government with the Independence Party, and try government formation with all other parties than the Independence Party and Centre Party, as government co-operation with corrupt groups will affect the credibility of the movement (the Left-Green Movement - the official party name)."

Not exactly eloquent, but unambiguous.

[Deleted]

Nov 13, 2017 20:01:31 GMT @odo said:

Resolution from the LG youth org:

"The Young Left Greens will always condemn actions that are contrary to Left Green policy and in opposition to the grassroots. Young Left Greens strongly oppose the fact that the Left Greens are entering government co-operation with the Independence Party. We can not accept recurrent lies, corruption and nepotism. We can not accept secrecy about sexual offenders. Doing things outweighs words and we in the Left Greens need to show what we stand for by refusing to form a government with the Independence Party. Such government co-operation is not the right way to safeguarding the interests of the nation. We urge the parliamentary group to show responsibility for the future by not going into a government with the Independence Party, and try government formation with all other parties than the Independence Party and Centre Party, as government co-operation with corrupt groups will affect the credibility of the movement (the Left-Green Movement - the official party name)."

Not exactly eloquent, but unambiguous.

Nice principled position, good for them!

[Adrian]

Nov 6, 2017 7:32:35 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Nov 6, 2017 1:25:23 GMT J.G.Harston said:

"Digged" and "dug" are both correct English for the past tense of "dig", but for different past tenses. Don't ask me to name them other than "past tense", but there are cases where "digged" is correct and cases where "dug" is correct, but I'm too tired to remember some examples.

Edit: My mum did Archaeology at uni, and I wonder if I'm remembering her using "digged" to refer to a dig, the noun, an archaeological excavation. Also, there's a unix command 'dig' and I could be remembering refering to having used the'dig' command.

Perfect and imperfect, surely? "I digged for three hours." "I've dug the vegetable bed." (My spell check doesn't like dogged, but what does it know?)

This discussion seems a bit surreal. The past tense of dig is dug. It is only "digged" in dialect uses or in uneducated speech.

[Deleted]

Nov 13, 2017 22:39:59 GMT Adrian said:

Nov 6, 2017 7:32:35 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Perfect and imperfect, surely? "I digged for three hours." "I've dug the vegetable bed." (My spell check doesn't like dogged, but what does it know?)

This discussion seems a bit surreal. The past tense of dig is dug. It is only "digged" in dialect uses or in uneducated speech.

Did you have to answer that now? We were at long last back on topic. 

[Deleted]

Stundin (which has excellent sources on the left) had a long and informative piece about the negotiating strategies of LG and SDA.

LG had decided to try leading the government if at all possible, to avoid Icelandic politics drifting rightwards and to escape their image as a perpetual opposition party (which they feel have cost them two elections by making it too easy to scare voters away from them). The LG strategy was based on four assumptions

1) that PP were the kingmakers and no functioning Left/Centre government could be formed without them.
2) that PP had the ability to go right and that reconciliation with SDG was possible.
3) that PP's main problem with "going left" was being in opposition to all the other "conservative" centre right parties (IP, Centre and the People's Party). Their talk about a broad based government therefore meant getting one of those to join.
4) that PP and Viðreisn as polar opposites on the "liberal"/"conservative" scale couldn't sit in the same government.

In LG's view SDA therefore behaved like political amateurs by trying to fix a non-existing problem (the size of the majority) by inviting Viðreisn to join, which made PP even more reluctant to accept the Left/Centre government.

After the four party talks had broken down SDA then declined to negotiate with IP (to keep their "clean" image) despite the threat of a grand coalition without PP being the only efficient tool the left had to force PP back to the negotiations.

While LG was negotiating with PP about the grand coalition (and still trying to lure PP back) SDA then formed their "liberal alliance" with Viðreisn and the Pirates, which an LG source likens to "trying to get a vegan to sit at the table by offering her steak."

The LG leadership then felt they had no other options than to pursue the grand coalition with PP and IP. Their analysis is that the IP, PP, Centre, People's Party coalition would otherwise become a reality (a combo they call the "alt right government" as they consider both Centre and the People's Party to be racist).

...

SDA meanwhile maintain that PP could never have gone into government with Centre, and that LG could have forced PP to enter a coalition with the Left by simply declining to go into a grand coalition with IP (calling their bluff about a centre-right/"alt right" coalition).

...

Its nearly impossible to say who are right as an outsider, but while I have argued that LG should simply have called PPs bluff and remain sceptical about whether PP would really have gone into government with Centre its fairly obvious that SDA (or rather Logi Már Einarsson) messed up on several occasions, and avoiding to put pressure on PP via grand coalition talks with IP does seem to be prioritizing party image over the chances of a government dominated by the left.

LG are already mad at SDA for costing them vital seats (probably not a leftist majority, but at least the ability to form a government with both PP and Viðreisn and thus a much stronger negotiation position) by bringing EU membership into the campaign, so the relationship between them is quite bad - and will deteriorate further if LG enter the grand coalition.

[Deleted]

A government agreement is expected to be presented either Sunday or early next week. There is going to be 11 ministries with IP getting five, and LG and PP each getting three. The traditional distribution would have been 4-4-3, but LG have to cede a ministry to IP in return for getting the PM.

LG will get Environment for group chairman Svandís Svavarsdóttir and one more for party founder Steingrímur J. Sigfússon (though he may step aside and accept Speaker instead, but I doubt that). Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson will be Minister of Business and PP want Foreign Affairs for Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir, but IP want it for "crown prince" Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson. I expect Lilja Dögg to win that fight as LG would want a government with a strong female element (as the centre-left option would have been majority female with Lilja Dögg on Finance its important this one isn't seen as male dominated).

Bjarni Benediktsson will become Minister of Finance.

A tricky question is whether Minister of Justice Sigríður Á. Andersen, who is seen as one of the main culprits in the restored honour to paedophiles affair by the left, will be in the government. She topped the IP list in Reykjavík South and it will be hard for Bjarni Benediktsson to bypass her (especially with only four women in their group), but it will be harder to get the government agreement approved by LG if she is in the cabinet. I would expect her to at least be demoted to something less influential than Justice.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir has said she wants an equal gender distribution in the cabinet, but if LG and PP both get two female ministers (which seems likely), that could be only 1-2 for IP. Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir, who has Business and Tourism now seems certain to be in the cabinet, but will have to switch portfolio as SIJ wants her job.

Interim deputh chairman for IP Áslaug Arna Sigurbjörnsdóttir (27 on 30/11), who has a law degree, might end up getting Justice even if that would be contrary to Ip tradition selecting someone that young.

[Deleted]

The three party leaders have discussed with the trade unions and employers org, the national physician (chief medical officer) and NGOs representing the disabled and elderly, so they are being very thorough, but a government agreement is likely early in next week.

IP still want six ministers (they finished on top in all six constituencies and traditionally the #1 gets a portfolio, and local chapters rebel if they do not get one), which LG and PP have denied, especially since IP seem to have gotten Foreign Affairs and SIJ has had to give up getting Business. Apart from that the following is said to be likely:

LG:
PM Katrín Jakobsdóttir
Svandís Svavarsdóttir (could get environment, but likely something bigger)
Minister of Environment Lilja Rafney Magnúsdóttir

Speaker Steingrímur J. Sigfússon

PP:
Minister of Fishing and Agriculture Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson
Minister of Education and Culture Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir
Þórunn Egilsdóttir (group chairman, will likely get a welfare ministry, maybe Healthcare)

IP:
Minister of Finance Bjarni Benediktsson
Minister of Foreign Affairs Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson (his current position)
Minister of Business Þór­dís Kol­brún Reyk­fjörð Gylfa­dótt­ir (her current position)
Unnur Brá Konráðsdóttir (outgoing Speaker, didn't get elected because of low position on the list, but is from the currently unrepresented South and very capable)

The fifth will be one of the three other current ministers. Likely Kristján Þór Júlí­us­son (who has Education and Culture now), but internally many want Sigríður Á. Andersen to keep Justice, which will be hard for LG to accept (some members of the LG board will likely vote no for that reason alone). Jón Gunnarsson (61), who is Minister of Transport and Local Affairs seems destined to lose out.

Some rumors Bjarni Ben could try to exclude Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson, who is his only serious challenger for the chairmanship, to weaken him, but that would be risky and could backfire.

So likely a female majority government. Three women from LG, two from PP and two from IP (I think Sigríður Á. will be left out if they include Unnur Brá Konráðsdóttir). It is symbolically important that the government is majority female after the disrespect for sexual abuse victims theme and the low share of women MPs in the election, and it will make it easier to get the agreement accepted by the LG board and MPs. The ministeries that haven't been distributed are: Justice, Healthcare, Social Affairs, and Transport. Local communities and housing will be attached to one or two of these.

[Devil Wincarnate]

An English cultural reference too far maybe, but I wonder how many of our British readers will recognise Bjarni Ben as being not unlike this:

coupling.wikia.com/wiki/Unflushable

[Foggy]

Nov 22, 2017 22:23:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

An English cultural reference too far maybe, but I wonder how many of our British readers will recognise Bjarni Ben as being not unlike this:

coupling.wikia.com/wiki/Unflushable

That particular sitcom was written by a Scotsman, no?

The example given sounds like it trivialises stalking and borderline psychotic behaviour, which isn't a surprise coming from that showrunner.

In a political context, though, yes I take your point. It can be tough to get rid of politicians like that in a PR list system sometimes.