Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 19:09:07 GMT
Local celebrities on the lists:SDA leads that competition by miles this time and many of their artists are in electable positions. The BF lists are nearly empty of big names - apart from party leader Óttarr Proppé and his band mates. Changing of the guard in the creative class. IP Reykjavík South: 13. Rúrik Gíslason, midfielder FC Nürnberg and national team. SW: 11. Davíð Þór Viðarsson, midfielder FH and national team. LG Reykjavík South: 14. Kött Grá Pje (Atli Sigþórsson), rapper and author. 16. Úlfar Þormóðsson, author Reykjavík North: 9. Ragnar Kjartansson, performance artist 19. Sigríður Thorlacius, artist SW: 13. Kristín Helga Gunnarsdóttir, author and chairman of the author's association Rithöfundasamband Íslands 24. Grímur Hákonarson, movie director South: 9. Gunnar Þórðarson, musician (Trúbrot, Rió Trió) NE: 6. Berglind Häsler, musician (Prins Póló, Skakkamanage) SDA Reykjavík North: 1. Helga Vala Helgadóttir, actor (and lawyer) 8. Hallgrímur Helgason, author 11. Edda Björgvinsdóttir, actor 12. Biggi veira (Birgit Þórarinsson), musician (GusGus), DJ 17. Áshildur Haraldsdóttir, flutenist 18. Þorkell Heiðarsson, musician (and biologist) 20. Dr. Gunni (Gunnar Lárus Hjálmarsson), musician, music journalist 22. Dagur B. Eggertsson, Mayor of Reykjavík Reykjavík South: 9. Margrét M. Norðdahl, painter 22. Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir, ex-PM SW: 1. Guðmundur Andri Thorsson, author and columnist 2. Margrét Tryggvadóttir, childens author (and ex-MP) 7. author and actor Gunnar Helgason 10. actor and comedian Hjálmar Hjálmarsson Pirates Reykjavík North: 20. Elísabet Jökulsdóttir, author, journalist, ex-presidential candidate (and crazy lady) BF Reykjavík North: 1. Óttarr Proppé, singer (Ham etc.) 20. Sigurður Björn Blöndal, musician (Ham), city councillor Reykjavík South: 8. Ilmur Kristjánsdóttir, actor, city councillor SW: 24. Sigurjón Kjartansson, musician (Ham) Viðreisn Reykjavik North: 8. Birna Hafstein, actor Reykjavík South: 20. Þorsteinn Pálsson, ex-PM and IP leader SW: 12. Ólöf Kolbrún Harðardóttir, opera singer 15. Kristín Pétursdóttir, entrepreneur Centre: Reykjavík North: 7. Jón Hjaltalín Magnússon, handball player and ex-chairman of the national handball association Handknattleikssamband Íslands Reykjavík South: 14. Sigurður Þ. Ragnarsson, tv-weatherman ("Siggi stormur") People's Party: Reykjavík North: 7. Karl Berndsen, fashion expert The two in bold elected. SDA only got one seat in SW, so Margrét Tryggvadóttir didn't get in.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Oct 29, 2017 19:49:47 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 19:57:24 GMT
Someone is getting ahead of themselves.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 20:33:56 GMT
Someone is getting ahead of themselves. And also as with New Zealand the numbers don't appear to be really there.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 22:47:42 GMT
The share of women dropped from 47.6% to 38.1% (lowest since 1999) with a very uneven distribution between the parties (even if the small numbers make for some coincides ie. both SDA and Pirates). The difference between the two factions of the old PP is striking.
Share of women:
PP: 62.5% LG: 54.4% Viðreisn: 50%
SDA: 42.9% Pirates: 33.3%
IP: 25% People's Party: 25% Centre: 14.3%
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2017 10:31:15 GMT
SIJ will not request the mandate. Three party leaders say they are entitled to it.
Bjarni Benediktsson as leader of the biggest party. Katrín Jakobsdóttir as leader of the biggest opposition party, claiming that "the opposition won the election". Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson: "I won the biggest victory."
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2017 13:17:13 GMT
SIJ will not request the mandate. Three party leaders say they are entitled to it. Bjarni Benediktsson as leader of the biggest party. Katrín Jakobsdóttir as leader of the biggest opposition party, claiming that "the opposition won the election". Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson: "I won the biggest victory." This was based on inaccurate info by Morgunblaðið. As I suspected SIJ does want to become PM and has requested the mandate (and since no government can realistically be formed without PP he has a good case). So four contenders for PM now. He says he wants to form a government "across the center" with the aim of promoting political stability (this means the anti-EU/protectionist combo of LG, PP, IP in PP lingo). He also says the opposition parties in the last parliament have a very small majority and wants a broader support and that the Progress Party have "experience in communicating issues and bringing together different perspectives". This doesn't rule out a PP/Left government once talks of a "broad coalition" have broken down, but it does mean SIJ would want to lead it (among other things to avoid having the government defined as a "leftist government").
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2017 15:40:56 GMT
SDG has made an alliance with the People's Party in the government formation talks (Inga Sæland sat on the backseat of his Land Cruiser when he arrived..). He says the two parties agree on the main issues: Restructuring of the financial system and increased benefits for elderly and disabled people.
On the PP he says that the two parties could work together on the issues. "It's really pleasing to see the group concentrate on the issues that were top priority when I was in charge."
So he is going for Centre, PP, IP, People's Party, but its highly doubtful IP and PP will negotiate with this "populist alliance".
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2017 16:08:59 GMT
The four opposition parties met in the Althing this morning for more informal talks (according to SIJ they happened "spontaneously", but that doesn't sound plausible).
I think the most likely PP plan is to get the mandate and go for PP, IP, LG first (or even PP, IP, LG, SDA), and switch to PP, LG, SDA when that fails, so they can say they tried to build a "strong government".
The centre-right option of IP, PP + Populist Alliance would collapse within a year, and both SIJ and Bjarni Ben are well aware of that.
Viðreisn are basically irrelevant as their seats aren't enough to give either side a majority.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2017 16:13:32 GMT
Since Sæland almost certainly got a couple of points from people that had supported LG until then I expect them to tank in the polls and fall below the threshold if this ends with a new election.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2017 17:19:57 GMT
Inga Sæland denies having made an alliance with SDG.. She says her party is still uncommitted and could also work with the opposition. She had recommended the president to give the mandate either to Bjarni Ben as the leader of the biggest party or to SDG as the "winner" of the election.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2017 18:02:32 GMT
So the recommendations were:
Bjarni Ben: Give the parties time for initial negotiations before giving the mandate to anyone - otherwise pick me. Katrín Jakobsdóttir: Give the parties time for initial negotiations before giving the mandate to anyone - otherwise pick me. Logi Már Einarsson: Give the mandate to Katrín J. SIJ: Pick me! SDG: Pick me! Þórhildur Sunna Ævarsdóttir: Give the mandate to Katrín J. Inga Sæland: Give the mandate to SDG or Bjarni Ben. Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir: Allow the four opposition parties time to finish their informal negotiations before giving the mandate to anyone.
So both Katrín and Bjarni Ben want to avoid SIJ getting the mandate (as the one with the biggest chance of forming a government), and are playing for time. I expect the president to agree with that. Bjarni Ben has no support outside of his own party except the half-hearted one from Inga Sæland, so he is unlikely to get it, and choosing between SIJ and Katrín now would be too direct an interference in the process.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2017 18:26:28 GMT
Þorgerður Katrín says that Viðreisn can go into government with the left if it doesn't include "excessive tax increases" and that forming a very broad and heterogenous government is a bad idea (i.e. IP-LG-PP).
"It is important to create stability that can handle tasks such as difficult collective (labour market) agreements that are ahead."
"The parties should be able to agree on the big issues; health, education and government finances."
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2017 12:04:09 GMT
The options seem to be:
Moggastjórn (Moggan government #): IP, PP, Centre, Peoples Party. An anti-leftist, protectionist government. This is the preferred option for Big Fishing, the IP right wing and the Centre Party, but not many others. Whether Inga Sæland is actually willing to join such a coalition remain unclear (its would almost certainly guarantee her party is a one-term phenomenon, but she would get power, prestige and personal fiscal gains). This government would require the two warring PP factions to tolerate each other, and Bjarni Ben to once again put up with SDG, who reportedly drove him nuts by his public announcements of "plans" that IP hadn't agreed to, and inability to prevent scandals popping up incessantly among his own ministers + his kamikaze attempt to unleash an election right after the Panama Papers leaked (which would have been a disaster for the centre-right). Besides the factors related to SDG I find it unlikely as I can not see what PP would gain from this electorally and its too risky for Bjarni Ben, as it would probably collapse fairly quickly and the left would be heavily favored to win the next election (they can not keep getting lucky that leftist/progressive waves collapse before election day). Bjarni Ben has also declared he doesn't want to work with "small and new parties without any foundation in a popular movement" again, and Sæland & Co. certainly fit that description. It would require the right wing to twist his arms quite a bit.
Íhaldsstjórn (conservative government): PP, IP, LG ("across the aisle" alliance of the parties that are against both EU-membership and changing the way the Icelandic economy is structured with a fully independent currency, regulated and heavily subsidized agricultural sector and fishing quotas allocated to established companies rather than sold on the free market). In this sense LG is a "conservative" party. The proponents of so-called "systemic changes" to the economy are called the "liberal" parties (Viðreisn, SDA, Pirates and BF).
This is preferred option of Bjarni Benediktsson and the IP moderates and maybe of SIJ (he did propose it after all). Though SIJ starting out with suggesting this doesn't necessarily mean its his preferred option, but could just as well be for the benefit of his more centre-right voters and members, to say he tried "broad cooperation" rather than jumping right into a "leftist" government. The Rural Reds in LG could live with this, but its doubtful the urban parts of the party could, so I see no real chance of this happening. IP could offer to incorporate SDA to make the left/right balance more attractive, but its not likely SDA would want to enter a "conservative" coalition. IP/PP could use the collapse of such talks to blame the left for not taking responsibility and unleash another election in spring (simultaneously with the municipal elections to irritate the voters as little as possible), but that could cause a major backlash and would be quite risky.
Konustjórn (women's government): LG, PP, SDA, Pirates - and perhaps Viðreisn. The parties behind this government have 50% female MPs, and it would have a majority of female ministers and be dominated by strong women such as Katrín Jakobsdóttir, PP deputy leader Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir, Oddný G. Harðardóttir from SDA (only SDA member with cabinet experience and a likely Minister of Finance) and Viðreisn leader Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir - if they join.
In addition to this being perceived as a "leftist" government the main practical obstacles to it are property taxes, a symbolic closure to the EU negotiations (this issue has taken on "religious" proportions) and a constitutional compromise. All seems doable (though the EU closure would need to be very symbolic). It would be easy for PP to agree with the left on progressive income tax, education, health and infrastructure. PP distrust the Pirates as too "alternative" and the two parties would need to agree on the constitutional issue, but that should be doable. There is also the question of who should lead it, but the left would have to accept SIJ if he insists, Lilja Dögg Alfreðsdóttir would like to return as Minister of Foreign Affairs and since she is "the strongest deputy leader of any party in Iceland" that might mean they would end up accepting Katrín as PM to get that post (impossible to get both in a four party coalition). SDA would want Viðreisn to join so the "conservative"/"liberal" balance became 18/17 rather than 18/13, PP and LG would prefer to do without them.
# Moggan is the nickname for Morgunblaðið, the leading daily in Iceland (c. 25% of the population reads it). It is controlled by the big fishing companies, which bankroll the Independence Party, and its editor-in-chief is former PM Davíð Oddsson, who is the éminence grise of the IP right wing.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2017 13:45:51 GMT
Óttarr Proppé has resigned as leader of BF.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 31, 2017 14:14:51 GMT
Big Fishing sounds like the least scary complex imaginable!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2017 20:14:38 GMT
SIJ now says the situation calls for an unusually broad government of "4-6 parties as needed" in order to focus on a few important areas. Hard to see the point of such a "national government" that would seem unworkable, but it might be a prelude to get to LG/PP/IP.
Viðreisn have said they do not believe in very large and heterogenous coalitions, and its hard to see SDA and Pirates being interested in this (unless its a short-lived thing that includes agreeing on a new constitution and presenting it to the voters at a new election, but IP and SDA/Pirates profoundly disagree on that issue). That would seemingly leave LG with IP/PP + the Populists. Hard to see that happening. Their grassroots would rebel if they agreed to that.
Katrín J. says they have multiple balls in the air and are negotiating with several parties, but since the norm is that everyone has to talk with everyone that doesn't mean much. The most sensible thing they could do is probably to let the "national government" talks play out and then in the end force PP to choose between the left (or left + Viðreisn) and IP/Populists.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 31, 2017 20:23:58 GMT
Katrín J. says they have multiple balls in the air We now have access to a spreadsheet that suggests we have a similar problem in our own Parliament! (Sorry, could not resist)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2017 20:35:35 GMT
The thing to remember here is that PP lost half their 2016 electorate to Centre and got saved by large numbers of low income voters that had intended to vote LG defecting to PP in the final week due to fear of EU-membership getting on the agenda, scaremongering about taxes and PP running a fairly leftist campaign, most of these voters would be gone if he goes right without any guarantee he could get his old voters back from Centre. So I think he needs LG in the government, but seemingly want to avoid a government with a large influence to "liberals" like SDA/Pirates.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2017 21:03:24 GMT
Big Fishing sounds like the least scary complex imaginable! I suppose its different if you haven't lived in a fishing based society. There is a lot of money in high sea fishing in the North Atlantic/Arctic and an overlap with finance because the owners are the ones with the capital who control other sectors of the economy. Its also a business that has a sinister side with pirate fishing in the waters of poor countries and unregulated places like the High Arctic since its a commodity whose origin is difficult to control. In the North Atlantic smugling of drugs and contraband is also connected to fishing. Some people build an empire based on capital earned in fishing: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kjell_Inge_Røkke
|
|