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Post by yellowperil on Sept 3, 2017 14:18:37 GMT
In Fortissat the Unionist Party won 560 votes (11%) last time, so will be interesting to see where those votes go.The Scottish Lib Dems seem to be completely extinct in North Lanarkshire, with no candidates in either 2012 or 2017. Why do you assume they won't go to the Unionist Party? True, a lot of opportunities for a re-think in the light of the Conservative no-show and the fact that the mechanics for a single-place by-election are different, but that applies to everybody, or at least all the unionist parties. |
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Tom
Unionist
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Post by Tom on Sept 3, 2017 15:04:36 GMT
In Fortissat the Unionist Party won 560 votes (11%) last time, so will be interesting to see where those votes go.The Scottish Lib Dems seem to be completely extinct in North Lanarkshire, with no candidates in either 2012 or 2017. Why do you assume they won't go to the Unionist Party? True, a lot of opportunities for a re-think in the light of the Conservative no-show and the fact that the mechanics for a single-place by-election are different, but that applies to everybody, or at least all the unionist parties. They may well do, although in a by-election I'd expect them to be squeezed much more, particularly as I doubt voter loyalty to that party is more than skin deep. I suspect the overall winner will be Scottish Labour. |
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Post by dizz on Sept 3, 2017 15:27:08 GMT
Glasgow City UA Ward 4-CardonaldLab died. 6 candidates : Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green , Libertarian.2017 results (first stage votes and stage of election only) Lab 1894/ 1607 elected stages 1, 9 SNP 1333/ 768 elected stages 1, 8 Con 1082 Green 233 LD 182 Indy ref2 131 UKIP 118 Sorry but these are wrong too. There was a third SNP candidate & the SNP topped the seat in terms of number of votes. |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 3, 2017 15:38:09 GMT
Some explanation of the Fortissat result is needed. Labour started with 1.82 quotas, the SNP with 1.45 quotas, the Conservatives on 0.66, the Unionist candidate on 0.55 and the outgoing Independent councillor Charlie Cefferty on 0.50. The SNP didn't balance their ticket so their second candidate was first to be eliminated. SNP transfers put Cefferty ahead of the Unionist, so the Unionist was then eliminated and his transfers went strongly to the Conservatives.
The Unionist candidate in May had the description "No Referendum Maintain Union Pro-Brexit" which is a registered description of the British Union and Sovereignty Party. The Unionist candidate in this by-election has the description "A Better Britain - Unionist Party" which doesn't appear to be on the Electoral Commission register (unless I've missed something), but also appears to be a British Union and Sovereignty Party candidate.
Incidentally Cardonald ward in Glasgow has the same boundaries as the 2007-17 Craigton ward.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 3, 2017 15:45:18 GMT
Glasgow City UA Ward 4-CardonaldLab died. 6 candidates : Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green , Libertarian Sorry but these are wrong too. There was a third SNP candidate & the SNP topped the seat in terms of number of votes. Thank you for that-corrected, I hope. Sorry for the errors but it is encouraging people to check my info carefully which must be a good thing! |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 3, 2017 15:53:43 GMT
Some explanation of the Fortissat result is needed. Labour started with 1.82 quotas, the SNP with 1.45 quotas, the Conservatives on 0.66, the Unionist candidate on 0.55 and the outgoing Independent councillor Charlie Cefferty on 0.50. The SNP didn't balance their ticket so their second candidate was first to be eliminated. SNP transfers put Cefferty ahead of the Unionist, so the Unionist was then eliminated and his transfers went strongly to the Conservatives. The Unionist candidate in May had the description "No Referendum Maintain Union Pro-Brexit" which is a registered description of the British Union and Sovereignty Party. The Unionist candidate in this by-election has the description "A Better Britain - Unionist Party" which doesn't appear to be on the Electoral Commission register (unless I've missed something), but also appears to be a British Union and Sovereignty Party candidate. Incidentally Cardonald ward in Glasgow has the same boundaries as the 2007-17 Craigton ward. Thank you,Andrew., very informative. These Scottish elections are a minefield for me with no direct experience of them and I'm on a steep learning curve, but they are very interesting! |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 4, 2017 4:03:17 GMT
PETERBOROUGH Eye, Thorney and Newborough Cause: Resignation of David Sanders (C) in order to retire from politics Term: 2018 If his term was due to end in May 2018, he could have waited another 4 months or so, and avoided a by-election due to the 6-month rule. Or completed his term until next May. I wonder if there are other reasons, such as illness? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 4, 2017 7:40:07 GMT
PETERBOROUGH Eye, Thorney and Newborough Cause: Resignation of David Sanders (C) in order to retire from politics Term: 2018 If his term was due to end in May 2018, he could have waited another 4 months or so, and avoided a by-election due to the 6-month rule. Or completed his term until next May. I wonder if there are other reasons, such as illness? Sanders had just completed a year as Mayor, and announced his resignation in a council meeting and simultaneously said he was leaving the Conservative Party as well. So there was a political point being made. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 4, 2017 12:51:24 GMT
Looks like one of the Tories' stronger wards in Peterborough. looks like it was... |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 6, 2017 10:11:06 GMT
I thought that Eye and Thorney was a separate ward to Newborough?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 6, 2017 10:26:41 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 6, 2017 10:42:18 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 6, 2017 11:08:15 GMT
which is why I didn't give any results for the ward other than 2016 |
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 7, 2017 6:54:07 GMT
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Post by La Fontaine on Sept 7, 2017 9:26:27 GMT
Saw a Labour poster on my way to Glyndebourne the other day. Election fever hits rural Sussex!
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Post by wickofthesouth on Sept 7, 2017 11:04:26 GMT
Saw a Labour poster on my way to Glyndebourne the other day. Election fever hits rural Sussex! Labour got 641 in Ouse Valley and Ringmer in 2015. The winner of this contest today will probably be on 700 or 800 votes. Do the many hundreds (thousands) of momentum Brighton and Hove members fancy a wet Thursday door knocking in the Downs? I'm not saying Labour are likely to win but it wouldn't be a total shock either. Anyone know if labour are running a GOTV operation here today? |
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Post by samdwebber on Sept 7, 2017 14:59:43 GMT
Any Lib Dem gain tonight (Lewes or East Cambridgeshire look most likely) would be the first gain since Vince Cable became leader I believe.
These 2 tweets show how seriously the Glasgow Cardonald is being taken as well:
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2017 16:03:13 GMT
Surely they must be its not like the local party have to prioritise their efforts
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2017 22:09:51 GMT
LANCASTER Skerton West
Hilda Jean PARR (Labour Party) 512
Andy KAY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 288
Derek John KAYE (Liberal Democrats) 33
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 7, 2017 22:12:18 GMT
Skerton West (Lancaster) result:
LAB: 61.5% (+24.5)
CON: 34.6% (+8.7)
LDEM: 4.0% (+4.0)
Labour HOLD.
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