Local by-elections September 7th 2017

[yellowperil]

I have now entered the basic data I set out to provide for all 14 of next Thursday's elections. There would be a lot more useful background that it would be nice to have so over to everyone else, thanks a lot for the contributions made already, but more detail and corrections badly needed.

[Merseymike]

Glad to see Labour standing candidates even in unpronising territory like the Herefordshire ward

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I think it was that in 2016 and 2017 local elections, Labour had candidates for every vacancy in the East of England region.

[yellowperil]

Sept 2, 2017 11:27:24 GMT Merseymike said:

Glad to see Labour standing candidates even in unpronising territory like the Hertfordshire ward

Hope you mean Herefordshire or I've missed something!. Yes that is one of the few in the week where Labour are standing without much chance of success but who knows? I too think this is likely to be a very good week for Labour. And  when you are on a roll it's a good time to try out the less likely ones.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The Herefordshire ward is a really lovely area of the country; it's also the valley that leads from Hereford to Hay-on-Wye.

[froome]

Sept 2, 2017 11:27:24 GMT Merseymike said:

Glad to see Labour standing candidates even in unpronising territory like the Hertfordshire ward

And pleased to see we are standing in 11 out of the 14, which isn't as bad as I would have expected. Hednesford South will be a particularly interesting election for us.

[lancyiain]

Sept 2, 2017 12:41:02 GMT froome said:

Sept 2, 2017 11:27:24 GMT Merseymike said:

Glad to see Labour standing candidates even in unpronising territory like the Hertfordshire ward

And pleased to see we are standing in 11 out of the 14, which isn't as bad as I would have expected. Hednesford South will be a particularly interesting election for us.

I wonder why there's no Green candidate in Sudbury South this time when in 2015 the Greens managed more candidates in Babergh DC than any other party, enough that they were theoretically the only party who could have won 100% of the councillors.

[carlton43]

Sept 2, 2017 12:09:24 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The Herefordshire ward is a really lovely area of the country; it's also the valley that leads from Hereford to Hay-on-Wye.

Agreed. It is a magical 'out of time' area that seems unchanged from near 18thC.

[Deleted]

Goodness me South Norwood is now a monumentally safe Labour area.

Hard to fathom now that the Conservatives won seats in South and Upper Norwood in 2006.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BABERGH Sudbury South

Cause: Resignation of David Holland (C) over political matters (disputed promise of office in the council administration)
Term: 2019
Electorate: c. 3,400

Luke Matthew CRESSWELL (Labour Party)
Simon SUDBURY (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Andrew John WELSH (Liberal Democrats)

CANNOCK CHASE Hednesford Green Heath

Cause: Death of Graham Burnett (C)
Term: 2019
Electorate: c. 4,000

Robert Arron BRANSON (Green Party)
Bryan JONES (The Conservative Party Candidate)
David Trevor PERCOX (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Linda TAIT (Labour Party)
Ron TURVILLE (The Chase Independent Party)

CANNOCK CHASE Hednesford South

Cause: Disqualification of Joanne Christian (C) under s. 85, Local Government Act 1972
Term: 2019
Electorate: c. 4,100

John David BERNARD (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Stuart Karl CRABTREE (Green Party)
Patrick Jozef Pawlek FRONDIGOUN (Labour Party)
Philip HEWITT (The Conservative Party Candidate)

COLCHESTER Shrub End

Cause: Resignation of Karen Chaplin (L Dem) for personal, family reasons
Term: 2019
Electorate: c. 7,700

Mike CLARK (Independent)
Mike DALE (Labour Party)
Vic FLORES (Conservative Party Candidate)
Bruno Paul HICKMAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Sam McCARTHY (Liberal Democrats)
Victoria Ann WEAVER (Green Party)

CROYDON South Norwood

Cause: Resignation of Kathy Bee (Lab) due to employment in a politically restricted post (with the UK Civil Service)
Term: 2018
Electorate: c. 12,400

Claire Elizabeth BONHAM (Liberal Democrats)
Patsy CUMMINGS (Labour Party)
Rebecca NATRAJAN (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Michael SWADLING (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Peter UNDERWOOD (Green Party)

EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE Ely South

Cause: Resignation of Tom Hunt (C) due to employment in a politically restricted post (with the Mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough)
Term: 2019
Electorate: c. 3,200

Sarah Louise BELLOW (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Rebecca Anne DENNESS (Labour Party)
Christine WHELAN (Liberal Democrats)

GLASGOW Cardonald

Cause: Death of Alistair Watson (Lab)
Term: 2022
Electorate: 23,248

Thomas HADDOW (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Jim KAVANAGH (Scottish Labour Party)
Alex MITCHELL (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Isabel NELSON (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
Antony SAMMEROFF (Scottish Libertarian Party)
John G SMITH (Scottish Green Party)

HEREFORDSHIRE Golden Valley South

Cause: Resignation of Graham Powell (C)
Term: 2019
Electorate: c. 2,800

Richard BAKER (Independent)
Coda Anna CODA (Labour Party)
Simeon Wood COLE (Conservative and Unionist Party)
Peter Charles JINMAN (Independent)
Milln Jeremy James MILLN (Green Party)

LANCASTER Skerton West

Cause: Resignation of Karen Leytham (Lab) for personal reasons
Term: 2019
Electorate: c. 5,150

Andy KAY (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Derek John KAYE (Liberal Democrats)
Hilda Jean PARR (Labour Party)

LEWES Ouse Valley and Ringmer

Cause: Death of Paul Gander (C)
Term: 2019
Electorate: c. 5,000

Johnny DENIS (Green Party)
James GARDINER (Liberal Democrats)
Clare HERBERT (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Phil HOWSON (UK Independence Party)
Tim TELFORD (Labour Party)

NORTH LANARKSHIRE Fortissat

Cause: Resignation of Sandy Thornton (C) who refused to accept office following the full council election
Term: 2022
Electorate: 11,980

Charlie CEFFERTY (Independent)
Kyle DAVIDSON (Scottish Green Party)
Daryl GARDNER (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
John Jo LECKIE (A Better Britain – Unionist Party)
Norma McNAB (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Mags MURPHY (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Clare QUIGLEY (Scottish Labour Party)

PETERBOROUGH Eye, Thorney and Newborough

Cause: Resignation of David Sanders (C) in order to retire from politics
Term: 2018
Electorate: c. 5,200

Michael ALEXANDER (Green Party)
Christian DEFEO (Labour & Co-operative Party Candidate)
May HERDMAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Callum ROBERTSON (Liberal Democrats)
Nigel SIMONS (The Conservative Party Candidate

STAFFORDSHIRE Hednesford and Rawnsley

Cause: Death of Graham Burnett (C)
Term: 2021
Electorate: c. 22,700

George ADAMSON (Labour Party)
Pat ANSELL (Liberal Democrat)
John David BERNARD (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Bryan JONES (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Ron TURVILLE (The Chase Independent Party)
Paul Edward WOODHEAD (Green Party)

SUFFOLK St John's

Cause: Resignation of Sandy Martin (Lab), now Member of Parliament for Ipswich
Term: 2021
Electorate: c. 6,500

Sarah Louise ADAMS (Labour Party)
Charlotte ARMSTRONG (The Green Party)
James Anthony Lymer HARDING (Conservative Party Candidate)
Edward Frederick PACKARD (Liberal Democrats)

[Harry Hayfield]

Sept 2, 2017 9:51:59 GMT yellowperil said:

North Lanarkshire UA Ward 13- Fortissat
Con resigned (not signing acceptance of office) 7 candidates: Con , Lab , SNP, Green, Unionist, UKIP, Ind
 
2017 results, first stage votes and stage elected only: 
Labour 1477/363 elected stage 1 and 6
SNP  1016/449 elected stage 1 and 6
No Ref  599
Ind 509

If the seat is a Con defence was that Con elected after the election (as there is no Con nominated candidate)?

[yellowperil]

Sept 2, 2017 18:58:42 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Sept 2, 2017 9:51:59 GMT yellowperil said:

North Lanarkshire UA Ward 13- Fortissat
Con resigned (not signing acceptance of office) 7 candidates: Con , Lab , SNP, Green, Unionist, UKIP, Ind

If the seat is a Con defence was that Con elected after the election (as there is no Con nominated candidate)?

Well I did ask for corrections! My excuse is that I try to dash these posts off between coping with my full-time caring duties and that means I sometimes will post when a crisis occurs without stopping to see whether it makes sense. I didn't spot that was an obvious nonsense. I have left out the Conservative line off the first preferences list, and of course they would have been  the final candidate elected at stage 6., not the second Nat.  Perhaps I couldn't quite believe it. and given what happened next, neither could they!

Will correct the original post- thank you.

[robert1]

A particularly interesting week.

North Lanarkshire appears to be a classic case of a paper candidate expecting not to be elected.

Competition between Labour and Lib Dems in seats where the Lib Dems were relatively recently the winning party but where Labour could establish themselves as the natural opposition/victor. Or will the Lib Dems make a come back and defeat the newly incumbent Tories.

In Scotland, will Labour continue their advance against the SNP?

[greenchristian]

Sept 3, 2017 7:19:21 GMT robert1 said:

A particularly interesting week.

North Lanarkshire appears to be a classic case of a paper candidate expecting not to be elected.

Which you'd expect to be fairly rare under STV.

Personally, I'm most interested in the three Cannock Chase elections. Given that the county division covers both district wards, it will be extremely interesting to see how things pan out. Not to mention that it's the only by-election this week where a Green win would not be a complete and total shock to everybody.

[robert1]

My apologies to 'froome' and 'greenchristian' for not including the Greens in reasons why this week will be interesting.

[Deleted]

Electoral calculus doesnt appear to predict any shocks in Cannock

[The Bishop]

Electoral Calculus is not some infallible oracle (indeed, some might put it more bluntly)

[Deleted]

This is true but it has precicted some of the most recent right

[marksenior]

Sept 3, 2017 11:19:16 GMT @priceofdawn said:

This is true but it has precicted some of the most recent right

I look forward to your entry into the September prediction contest with your predictions based on electoral calculus .

[Tom]

In Fortissat the Unionist Party won 560 votes (11%) last time, so will be interesting to see where those votes go.

The Scottish Lib Dems seem to be completely extinct in North Lanarkshire, with no candidates in either 2012 or 2017.