Kenyan general election, 2017

[Deleted]

The most important election in Africa this year takes place in Kenya on the 8th of August.

The presidential election is a rematch from 2013 between president Uhuru Kenyatta (55) from the the Jubilee Party and his arch rival Raila Odinga (72) running for the National Super Alliance (NASA) (sic) uniting all the major opposition parties. There is an element of ethnic headcount in this, but it will be more complex.

www.dw.com/en/kenyatta-odinga-presidential-fight-intensifies-in-kenya/a-39282895

"A majority of Kenya's population comes from the four largest ethnic groups: Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin and Luo. Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, and his vice president William Ruto, a Kalenjin, are counting on the support of their tribes. The 72-year-old Odinga, who garnered 43 percent of the vote during the 2013 presidential election and also lost in 1997 and 2007, is a Luo. He has now formed the National Super Alliance (NASA), a coalition with the leaders of the major opposition parties. With this political outfit, Odinga hopes among other things to win votes from Luhyas. In 2013, they had supported Musalia Mudavadi, who won 4 percent of the vote."

In the midst of a drought affecting half the country - and being at its worst in the eastern highlands (incl. the famous Rift Valley) inhabited by Kalenjin and Massais (two groups that are often swing voters) with desperate pastoralists invading farms - the polls are tightening.

"The incumbent is still leading, but the margin is shrinking. Forty-seven percent of respondents to a survey published by the market research institute Ipsos at the end of May said they would vote for Kenyatta. Forty-two percent preferred Odinga. In January Kenyatta was ahead by 17 points."

[Deleted]

Kenya is divided into 47 counties.



In order to prevent a candidate from winning by running up votes among certain ethnic groups there is a requirement for a candidate to get at least 25% in a majority of the counties (in addition to 50% overall) to win in the first round, so we could get a 2nd round even if a candidate gets a majority in the first. The idea is to give voters a chance to reconsider whether its wise to elect a candidate without significant support from most ethnic groups. 

There are 337 seats in the National Assembly. 290 elected by FPTP in single member constituencies and 47 women's seats elected by FPTP in each county.

47 of the 67 senators are elected by FPTP in each county. The parties are then assigned a share of the 20 reserved seats (16 women, 2 young people and 2 disabled) based on their share of the total vote; the youth and disabled seats acts as a “bonus” to the two biggest parties.

The 47 county governors are also elected on the same day using FPTP, as is the County Councils.

[Deleted]

Political parties in Kenya are organized around leaders and ethnicity plays a strong role deciding who works with whom, but its still possible to discern a Conservative, pro-establishment tradition and a pro-democracy, “reform” tendency.

After KANU in 1991 decided to allow opposition parties as part of the democratization wave that swept over Africa six opposition leaders (among them the former VP Odinga Sr.) banded together and formed the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD). This movement split the following year in the Luo-dominated FORD–Kenya under Odinga and the Kikuyu dominated FORD–Asili led by Kenneth Matiba. After heavily condemning multiparty-ism KANU bigwig and future president Mwai Kibaki (a careful man, it was said Kibaki never found a fence he didn't want to sit on) enters the race with his newly formed Democratic Party. With a split opposition president Daniel arap Moi and KANU won the 1992 election easily, with FORD–Asili, FORD–Kenya and DP as the main opposition parties.

In 1994 Odinga Sr. dies and FORD-Kenya splits in 1997 when Odinga Jr. joins the small National Development Party (NDP), formed 1991, after losing a power struggle. Mwai Kibaki goes on to narrowly lose the 1997 presidential election to Moi, and KANU gets a majority in parliament on their own with DP, NDP, FORD–Kenya and the Social Democratic Party (a Communist party that ran Kenya's first female presidential candidate Charity Ngilu and faded away when she subsequently defected). FORD–Asili was now a spent force and most of the non-Conservative, non-Luo vote in FORD–Kenya.

In 2001 Odinga allies with Moi - hoping to become his chosen successor - and in 2002 KANU and NDP merged as New KANU. After Moi backstabbed Odinga and chose to back Uhuru Kenyatta for president Odinga left with the former NDP and a lot of the non-Kikuyu part of KANU to take over the empty shell Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Determined to get revenge on Moi Odinga then teamed up with the National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK), another empty shell taken over by DP, FORD–Kenya, Charity Ngilu and some minor parties. Together they formed the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc), which won the 2002 election bigly with Kibaki as presidential candidate (he trashed Kenyatta 63/31). The only major opposition parties were now KANU and FORD–People (a nominally Social Democratic split from FORD–Asili).

Kibaki soon showed authoritarian tendencies. When he tried to augment his presidential powers in a constitutional referendum in 2005 (rather than establish a strong PM office as he had promised his partners) the opposition mobilized against him (the constitutional draft also included a progressive land reform, but that was seen as a decoy). LDP was subsequently kicked out of the ruling coalition for being against the new constitution while KANU split into two fations. The main one under Kenyatta allied with LDP as the Orange Movement (an orange being the “No” symbol, a banana the “Yes” symbol). The opposition won the poll and formalized ODM–Kenya as a new party. In 2007 the KANU faction broke out of the party and reunited with the KANU minority faction that had stayed out of the merger. While the anti-Odinga wing of ODM–Kenya broke out and took over an empty shell party called ODM (registered by an avaricious lawyer before the Orange Democratic Movement became a party). All very confusing. Odinga then "lost" the 2007 election to Kibaki with 200,000 votes and all hell broke lose. The result was a shotgun wedding of the two camps imposed by the international community, which made Odinga PM and let Kibaki keep the presidency. The 2007 elections made ODM the biggest party followed by Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU) (an alliance of NAK and some small parties), the Luo-dominated ODM–Kenya, and the reunited KANU (which endorsed Kibaki for president).

After the crisis PNU dissolved (not much "national unity" left at that point..) and NAK re-registered as an independent party. In 2012 it was taken over by Kenyatta supporters and rebranded as The National Alliance (TNA). It made a deal with the United Republican Party (URP) under current VP William Ruto, a 2012 anti-Odinga split from ODM. The United Democratic Forum (UDF), a party formed in 2012 by young neoliberal “reformists” and drafting deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi (Kenyatta's running mate in 2002) ran independently, but joined after the election.

Meanwhile Odinga gathered a Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) to support his presidential bid consisting of his own ODM, the Wiper Democratic Movement–Kenya (a 2011 rebranding of the old ODM–Kenya, his former rivals), FORD–Kenya and ten smaller parties.

The 2013 presidential elections were won by Kenyatta and his Jubilee Alliance and resulted in three big parties: TNA, ODM, URP and three medium sized parties: Wiper Democratic Movement, UDF, and the “historic” FORD–Kenya getting in parliament. Mudavadi defected from UDF in 2015 and formed his own Amani National Congress (ANC), which is now in NASA.

In September 2016 TNA, URP, rump-UDF and eight micro parties merged as the Jubilee Party, a Kikuyu dominated, Conservative (= pro-establishment) and Nationalist party.

NASA is basically an extension of CORD from 13 to 20 parties, and all of the newcomers are either small or minuscule with the exception of Mudavadi's ANC. ODM, Wiper and FORD–Kenya still form the core of the alliance.

Most of the parties descended from the two pro-democracy movements (FORD and ODM) and the federalist/regionalist parties (fx KADU–Asili and the Federal Party of Kenya) are in NASA. So even if Kenyan politics isnt about ideology, the two coalitions represent different tendencies. Though URP and rump-UDF are also descended from ODM they represent the Kikuyu/central establishment.

[Deleted]

"Ahead of Kenya's elections in August, we are inviting your questions on the issues you want us to report on. Every week we will put your questions to one of our expert guests on BBC Africa's Kenya Election Watch podcast. It's a 15-minute show with three segments: Main interview, fact-checking, and audience questions."
www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39810869

[Deleted]

The parties will have to hand in their candidate lists by 24 June.

Apart from the two main contenders there are 6 other candidates nominated by parties and 11 independents, but they are estimated to get less than 100,000 votes combined and will play no role for the outcome.

[Deleted]

Kikuyu + Kalenjin = 35%
Luo + Luhya = 25%

That is the baseline, but most of the small tribes are pro-NASA.

Metro Nairobi with c. 8 mio. inhabitants is less ethnic in its voting patterns, the "middle class" (i.e. people with an income from wages or a shop they can live off) mainly vote Jubilee and the 3.5-4 mio. in the slums ("the hustlers") are likely to vote Odinga, if they vote.

The Rift Valley and the Coast are usually swing areas, but the non-Kalenjin population in "the valley" should vote Odinga this time due to the drought. Plus the government is perceived as even more of a Kikuyu/Kalenjin government than usual.

[Deleted]

The presidents of Kenya and their ethnicity. Its not one of those countries where you let the small groups get a chance once in a while.

Jomo Kenyatta (1964-78) - Kikuyu (PM 1963-64)
Daniel arap Moi (1978-2002) - Kalenjin (VP 1967-78)
Mwai Kibaki (2002-13) - Kikuyu (VP 1978-88)
Uhuru Kenyatta (2013-) - Kikuyu (son of Jomo K.)

The Kalenjin are a Nilotic people and do not have any cultural links to the Kikuyus, who are Bantus, so their alliance is mostly based on the fact that they fit in size (are just about big enough to dominate if they stick together). Up to the 1963 election a party called Kenya African Democratic Union (KADU) was formed to represent the tribes known as KAMATUSA (Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana and Samburu). It was led by a Kalenjin school teacher named Daniel arap Moi and its ideology was called Majimboism (after the Swahili word for region). Its main goal was to turn Kenya into a loose federation of ethnically based autonomous regions. It got the second most seats, and was the only organized opposition party (the third party to get seats disbanded shortly after the election), but KANU had a majority and paid no attention to KADU, so it merged into KANU in 1964, which made Kenya a de facto one-party state. This gave the Kikuyus an alternative to their troublesome alliance with the Luos, and in 1966 Odinga Sr. was ousted as VP and the Luos started drifting out of the party. After a short interludium Daniel arap Moi then became VP in 1967 and established himself as Kenyatta's successor.

[Deleted]

One swing group is the urban youth, and there are lots of them: www.dw.com/en/how-kenyan-youth-could-swing-the-2017-election/a-39263472

"At least 80 percent of Kenya's population is made up of people aged 35 and below. According to Kenya's demographics, the country boasts of the most youthful voters in the East African region. More than half of the 19 million registered voters in Kenya are considered youth, their participation in the August 8 general elections will be crucial and might determine who wins the presidency."

"The current political landscape in Kenya is not so accommodating to the youthful population as it is full of ethnic balkanization and divisions that often turn away the youth. Having grown up in cosmopolitan towns and suburbs, a majority of them don't have a strong affiliation with their ethnic backgrounds unlike the older generation, a loophole which older politicians have always utilized."

youth = 15-30 in Kenya, the voting age is 18

[Deleted]

The 2013 map for comparison (president and parliament is alliances getting 25%). CORD + Amani = NASA this time. ODM/Wiper/FORD-K = NASA this time. TNA/URP/UDFP = Jubilee. See my long party development post for more details.



Also worth noticing that in 2013 Odinga lost despite winning the coast.

[Deleted]

Ideology doesn't matter much in Kenya, but it might still be interesting to see what nominal ideology the parties adhere to.

Given that its a conglomerate the Jubilee Party hasn't got an official party ideology, but the The National Alliance Party (which is the core of Jubilee) identified as a Conservative party and the UDF as a Liberal (given that it was founded by young reformists often with Western economics degrees), URP never bothered with an ideology. When TNA and URP decided to run joint candidates and needed a vehicle for that they acquired the Conservative Party and renamed it the Jubilee Alliance Party, but as other parties showed interest they decided to create a new party and fold JAP into it.

Both Wiper and FORD–Kenya are nominally Social Democratic, ODM started out as Social Democratic as well, but has joined the African Liberal Network (which contains plenty of illiberal parties) and are observers in Liberal International. Not sure why Odinga & Co.  switched their official ideology - but it might be to attract foreign donors.

So on paper Jubilee are "the centre-right" and NASA "the centre-left".

No Kenyan parties are in IDU and the minuscule Labour Party of Kenya is the only one affiliated with SI (as observers).

[Deleted]

The role of ethnicity in Kenyan politics

#pedantic note: Kenya African Democratic Development Union (KADDU) is a now defunct microparty founded in 2006, the historical independence era party led by Daniel arap Moi was called Kenya African Democratic Union (KADU).

[Deleted]

A bit repetitive perhaps compared to what I have previously written, but here is an answer to a good question I gave on another forum.

Q: So it seems the main divide in Kenyan politics is tribal, but many voters take into account policy considerations too -- do you happen to know what groups (not thinking of tribes here, but age/urban vs rural/education) are expected to lean toward what candidate? What are the differences between the candidates in terms of policy? The article speculates about post-election violence; how free/fair is this election expected to be?

A: The main thing is that the more urban and young the voters are the less ethnic is their voting pattern. Maybe 55% of the electorate will be between 18 and 30, so that will play a part (especially in Metro Nairobi), and the young are said to be more likely to vote this time. Turnout is generally expected to be high by Kenyan standards due to all the problems the country faces. That should help Odinga, but it will also enthuse his opponents. Despite Kenyatta and Ruto both being charged at the ICC in connection with the 2007/08 riots (which included horrors such as incarcerating 50 Kikuyu women and children in a church and torching it) and Ruto being a former SG of the once almighty KANU, Odinga may be seen as even more of a has-been and connected with "old Kenya" (ethno-politics/tribalism). The young will likely vote along "class" lines in the big smoke and tribal lines in the countryside, harder to say elsewhere. Though I expect them to back the opposition on the coast (incl. Mombassa).

Since the Kikuyus have conducted what amounts to an internal colonization of many other parts of Kenya (taking over land in the coastal areas and the Rift Valley etc.) tribe and class overlap (a bit like race and class in Latin America). More Kikuyus are middle class (relatively speaking) than the others. Kalenjin have also been privileged due to being Moi's tribe. But generally the urban middle class should be more likely to support Kenyatta/Jubilee and the poor Odinga/NASA.

Like all African elections the campaign is centered on being all things to all people and pointing out how horrible, corrupt and useless your opponents are (African election campaigns are light on policy ), but NASA has more parties committed to federalism/de-centralisation and includes the minority tribes and they are more likely to start public infrastructure projects to combat unemployment and poverty (hence my New Deal analogy). Taxation of the wealthy is more likely to go up under Odinga (but the wealthy are disproportionally held by Kikuyus so that is a tribal thing as well).

The so-called Mount Kenya Mafia (the Kikuyu elite) has grabbed a lot of land (the Kenyatta family is said to own what equals a whole province), and NASA will try to redistribute land that has been acquired through illegal means (though some of it will no doubt end up in the hands of their own fatcats..)

The top brass has enriched themselves through so-called military contracts (closed to public scrutiny in the name of "security concerns"), this has made many generals insanely rich. NASA supporters expect Odinga to end this system. Though whether he dares to do that is questionable.

The dreaded National Security Intelligence Services (NSIS) - heirs to Moi's Special Branch - is above the law and run death squads taking out gangsters and other criminals in the slums, but sometimes critics. NASA supporters hope Odinga will bring current and former NSIS bosses to justice (same caveat as above). They also hope he will punish police commissioners and officials involved in rigging elections. In short: Throw the bums in jail.

A lot of ill gotten gains is stored in small warehouses (godowns) rather than banks, for fear of confiscation and distrust of the banks, and the opposition will likely try get hold of this cash/valuables.

Kenya has a free press, but as always the government will use lots of state resources on its campaign. The opposition is free to hold rallies etc. It should be a credible election. As I mentioned the use of manual counts as a backup to electronic voting has raised suspicion as has the issue of moving the count to larger centers.

"Kenya has some of the most advanced election technology in place. This includes a biometric voter registration process which involves capturing biological features such as the fingerprints of prospective voters. This means that at the end of voter registration the election body can electronically audit the records, picking out and deleting duplicates."

I think it will be a generally free and mostly fair election. A lot has been done to eliminate problems with impersonation, double voting, ghost voters, and ballot stuffing. Many Odinga supporters point out that the Kikuyus and Kalenjin only make up 35% and will never get back in power if they lose it because "the 40 tribes" (the rest of the population) will be able to outvote them, so they will do anything to stop an Odinga victory. But I think a compromise between the old and the new elite would be more likely in that case. With a more urban and mixed population ethnic politics will decline over time anyway (except - once again - that ethnicity often equals class..). "

[Deleted]

Odinga accuses the military of preparing rigging:


Counter move: Adopt a polling station - Ghana style.


"Religious leaders on Wednesday called out the electoral agency, again, accusing it of being timid in dealing with aspirants accused of corruption in their past dealings. At a press briefing at the ACK Guest House in Nairobi, the clerics from various Christian and Muslim denominations said the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission had created a “huge setback” in the fight against graft when it allowed aspirants fingered by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) to contest."
www.nation.co.ke/news/IEBC-on-the-spot-over-tainted-candidates/1056-3980908-blbi2j/index.html

[Deleted]

The Jubilee Party will present their election manifesto tomorrow, and NASA will launch their manifesto on Thursday.

[Deleted]

The five "pillars" of the NASA manifesto, which is much less concrete than the Jubilee Party manifesto, which set specific targets (many of them rather unrealistic..).

1) to promote national unit.
2) to uphold, guard and respect the dignity of all individuals and communities.
3) to return the country to the path of constitutional and democratic development.
4) end the culture of impunity among security forces and officials.
5) restore sanity in the management of the economy and public affairs of our nation.

The manifesto has focus on changing systems and structures, democratization, devolution and some infrastructure spending (but fairly moderate). More welfare in the form of rent control, (nearly) universal healthcare and higher wages for low paid civil servants (also an anti-corruption measure..). Some interesting ideas mixed with a lot of fluff.

Concrete promises:

- to resolve all the perennial labour disputes within 100 days (good luck with that..).
- change the Constitution to have ministers selected from among MPs and secure gender parity.
- change the way senators are elected, so Senators are linked to their home governments (indirect elections by the County Councils - which is a good idea in Kenya..)
- fully implement decentralisation as set out in the Constitution and have all devolved functions funded accordingly.
- reorganize institutions whose functions involve both the national and county governments (road authorities, water boards and regional development authorities).
- increase pay for civil servants (especially the lower ranks).

- "Transforming Governance," change the public service and get rid of colonial hangovers so all public employees work as servants of the people. (again, good luck..)
- introduce a NASA Code of Conduct to ensure all their elected or appointed officials do not engage in corruption. (good luck.. etc. )
- all officials should be blocked from doing business with the government (directly or indirectly) to avoid conflict of interest.
- all officials will be required to disclose their financial interests upon appointment and "take the moral and political responsibility for misconduct".

- introduce consultative processes to address peace and security challenges in the north, parts of coast and the Rift Valley region (in consultation and coordination with neighbouring countries and communities in South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda).
- develop "investment interventions" in conflict zones designed to spur inclusive economic growth, create employment and enhance livelihoods.

- enact a law to enable rent control.
- revive the Kenya National Integrated Civic Education Programme.
- create a Universal Health Fund (so patients pay a small basic fee and hospitals bill the government for the rest).
- hold a conference on relations between the national and county governments over the next five years, which shall result in a "charter on cooperative governance" setting out goals for the next five years."

- reform the Agricultural Finance Corporation and the Agricultural Development Corporation to focus on the interests of farmers.
- develop a national crop and livestock insurance system.
- Introduce warehouse receipting to allow grain farmers to use livestock as collateral for loans and promote the development of markets.

Some infrastructure spending to boost the economy and fight unemployment, but less than expected.

- build a bridge over the Likoni channel.
- introduce a commuter rail for the Coast and Nairobi.
- build the necessary infrastructure to ease travel and communication and remove the sense of remoteness and alienation felt by people in arid and semi-arid areas.

[Deleted]

In the interest of balance I better describe the Jubilee Party Manifesto as well. Its build on boasting of the government's magnificent achievements and promising "empowerment" in a way that while African populist in rhetoric is also at its core close to a Western centre-right pitch (self-sufficiency, break welfare dependency etc.) and take Kenya to the next level as a high tech industrialized economy (East Africa is on average more technologically developed than West Africa, and everyone in the Kenyan and Tanzanian elite want their countries to be the next South Korea, African "Lion Economies" (even though lions are a lot lazier than tigers..   ). Less focus on the rural economy than NASA (fertilizer program and focus on public/private partnership), no constitutional reforms, and also no concrete measures on devolution or anti-corruption (but lip service to both). Some expansion of the welfare state, but much less ambitious than NASA on healthcare (and welfare for the 70+ is relatively cheap in Kenya as there aren't that many of them.. its welfare for young people and children that is costly). Its a paradox that while extremely tribalistic Kenyan political discourse has a bit more recognizable left/right divide than usual in Africa, but its due to the overlap between tribe and class.

President Kenyatta's pitch: "We wish to give you a Government that works with, and empowers the people. We will empower the 45 million people so that they can stand up for themselves without depending on the government and donors."

Kenyatta did the mandatory boasting: completion of the first phase of the Standard Gauge Railway, more than 7,000 km of roads constructed, expanded electricity connection, enhanced generation and distribution of power, return of vehicle assembling plants, and improved global standing in the business community.

Main goals:

- speed up industrialisation.
- create at least 6.5 million jobs over the next five years.
- build "a 21st century hi-tech industrial revolution" in Kenya (develop transport, ICT and energy infrastructure to attract global industry) leading to "a huge expansion in sustainable, high quality, hi-tech jobs".

Jubilee’s 10-point manifesto:

– To create 1.3 million jobs every year and work with county governments to establish at least one industry in every county.

– To establish a government sponsored apprenticeship programme of up to 12 months for all university and TVET graduates.

– To double the number of vulnerable citizens supported through the cash transfer programme (Inua Jamii) from 700,000 to 1,400,000. This will include all citizens above the age of 70; in addition, all citizens above the age of 70 will obtain health insurance cover through the NHIF (far less ambitious than NASAs healthcare proposal).

– To expand the free primary school programme to include free day public secondary schools in Kenya.

– To facilitate mass housing production of at least 500,000 affordable homes in 5 years across the country by working in partnership with financial institutions, private developers, manufacturers of building materials and cooperatives to deliver homes faster and reduce the cost of construction by at least 50%.

– To expand free maternity care to include government funded NHIF cover for every expectant mother for one year.

– To ensure every citizen is connected to reliable and affordable electricity (on or off-grid) by 2020.

– To expand food and agricultural production, double the fertiliser subsidy initiative and reduce the cost to farmers to less than 1,500 shilling a year. Expand the programme to include all crops with a resultant increase in production and support the expansion and capacity of local fertiliser manufacture.

– To complete the 57-large-scale dam construction programme, support small-holder agricultural irrigation and work with the private sector to enhance food and agricultural production on at least 1.2 million acres.

– To make government more transparent and accountable through the digitisation of all government procurement; expand and deliver e-government services through the growing network of Huduma Centres.

Jubilee’s manifesto is divided into three pillars: Transforming Lives, Transforming Society and Transforming the Nation.

Transforming Lives: Transform health services, provide education and training for the 21st century, provide affordable and decent housing, ensure safe and sufficient water for all, empower youth, empower women, promote sport, culture and the arts.

Transform Society: Improve governance, enhance justice and the fight against corruption, build a public service that is fit for service, build a united and cohesive nation, boost security and policing, continue to support devolution to bring government closer to the people.

Transform the Nation: Make the economy more broad based, inclusive and modern, build infrastructure for the 21st century, transform Kenya’s Industry (Build Kenya, Buy Kenya), reforms on land, agriculture and the environment, develop the blue economy (fishing & shipping), strengthen foreign relations and trade, build Africa’s silicon savannah and make the tourism sector more vibrant.

[Deleted]

NASA want a new semi-presidential system of government with a PM in charge of the cabinet. They say it will make it easier for the smaller ethnic groups to get to lead the government.

An Infotrak poll with a 2.2 MoE conducted through "computer-assisted personal interviews" on 24-25/6 and with a sample of 2,000 from 29 of the 47 counties shows Kenyatta ahead. They each lead in four of the eight regions. Kenyatta leads in North Eastern, Eastern, Central and Rift Valley, while Odinga is ahead in the Coast, Western, Nyanza and Nairobi.



While its not a truly national poll the counties are spread evenly across different regions and ethnic groups and that is what matters in Kenya. I think it will come down to turnout among the young in Metro Nairobi and the Coast. If Odinga mobilizes enough young voters in mixed regions he wins, otherwise Kenyatta's coalition will hold. Its a shame they seemingly didn't publish the regional numbers. Bomet county in the Rift Valley, which voted nearly unanimously for Kenyatta in 2013, will also be interesting after its popular governor Isaac ap Ruto (a Kalenjin like all Rutos) crossed over to NASA.

Uhuru Kenyatta (Jubilee Party) 48%
Raila Odinga (NASA) 43%
Abduba Dida (Tunza Coalition) 0.5%
Ekuru Aukot 0.1%
Cyrus Jirongo 0.1%
Joe Nyagah 0.1%

All others at shares rounded down to 0.0%

Their last poll had the race as 47/42, so each side has gained a point. In January it was 45/30, so Odinga has narrowed the gap substantially.

Additional question:

"Is the country headed in the right or wrong direction?"

Right direction 45%
Wrong direction 50%
Don’t know 4%

[Deleted]

President Kenyatta will not participate in the two planned tv-debates between him and Odinga. Jubilee Party SG Raphael Tuju claims no one has contacted the party or State House regarding the debates and that they just saw them advertised in the media and don't know the organisers - "the president won't attend a debate that smells of conmanship". Seems like the lamest excuse possible.

[clyde1998]

Jul 6, 2017 0:30:02 GMT @odo said:

President Kenyatta will not participate in the two planned tv-debates between him and Odinga. Jubilee Party SG Raphael Tuju claims no one has contacted the party or State House regarding the debates and that they just saw them advertised in the media and don't know the organisers - "the president won't attend a debate that smells of conmanship". Seems like the lamest excuse possible.

Maybe he saw how well not taking part in debates worked for Theresa May and decided to follow in her footsteps. 

[Deleted]

Kenyatta is (indirectly) saying that if the voters don't elect Jubilee governors the government won't help them develop. Obviously blaming the opposition, but people will get the message Its always the same...).

"Uhuru Kenyatta has urged Kenyans to vote for Jubilee gubernatorial aspirants in the August polls to end squabbles that retard development. He said the national and county governments are supposed to work in unison for the benefit of all Kenyans but that goal has been elusive in the last four and a half years because of opposition governors who have focused on fighting the national government at the expense of providing services to residents. “Counties and the National Government are supposed to work together to improve the lives of Kenyans but in the last five years, opposition governors have been behaving as if the two levels of government are in competition, denying residents services that would transform their lives.”

www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/07/uhuru-urges-voters-elect-jubilee-governors-end-squabbles-slow-growth