Kenyan general election, 2017

[Foggy]

Jul 6, 2017 16:29:30 GMT @odo said:

Kenyatta is (indirectly) saying that if the voters don't elect Jubilee governors the government won't help them develop. 

Whilst it may be easy to roll one's eyes upon reading that and put it down to typical rhetoric of a developing country with a less mature democracy, to be honest it doesn't sound dissimilar to the type of language used on Conservative leaflets ahead of the county council elections here (and before anyone says anything about singling out the blue team, I happen to live in a strongly Tory area, so it's possible that other parties also use this sinister tactic in different parts of the country).

[Deleted]

Pretty chaotic what will happen with the two debates scheduled for 10 and 24 July. The steering committee of the organizers, a conglomerate of various media houses called Debates Media Limited, say they have been in constant communication with all candidates and that "the teams attached to the various aspirants have regularly been updated on the details of the debates (which sounds a lot more likely than Kenyatta's claim). But Odinga has now also pulled out of the debates saying they are pointless without Kenyatta. 

Meanwhile the presidential candidate for the micro party the Alliance for Real Change Mohammed Abduba Dida has lost a bid to stop the two presidential debates after a judge ruled that Dida's petition to stop them had no merit. Dida had sued both Debate Media Limited and the Media Council of Kenya. He wanted the debates temporarily stopped because they would feature two separate debates with different categories of candidates: one for those who had  garnered over 5% in the opinion polls (i.e. Kenyatta and Odinga) and one for the rest (all polling well below 1%), which he found both discriminatory and groundless due to the standard of polling in Kenya. But now it seems that the "kiddie table debate" might be the only one happening, so he may get his desired full equality... 

[Deleted]

The first presidential debate has been moved from 10 to 24 July (the scheduled date of the second) and apparently the Big 2 will be there. Unclear if there will be a second debate. The running mates' debate will be held on 17 July as scheduled.
...
Interior Cabinet Secretary Rt. Major General Joseph Nkaissery has died. He was the "security minister" (also in the 2008-13 GNU) and his death may cause some friction within the government.

He was a Masai strongman, who was in the opposition camp as Kajiado Central MP for the ODM, but was "poached" by the regime. He later alienated his own people by detaining five of their most esteemed leaders, and the Masai are now firmly in the NASA corner.

[Deleted]

It seems some minor candidates have withdrawn (might be to do with deposits) so only:

Cyrus Jirongo (United Democratic Party)
Ekuru Aukot (Thirdway Alliance)
Abduba Dida (Alliance for Real Change)
Joseph Nyagah (Ind.)
Michael Wainaina (Ind.)
Japheth Kavinga (Ind.)

Will be on the ballot.

Both Kenyatta and Odinga currently have 25%+ in the required 24 counties, so with no third candidates with more than negligible support the election should be won in the 1st round.

[Deleted]

"both sides believe that the other will try to use irregularities in the voting system to rig election results in their respective strongholds. According to a recent audit by the consulting firm KPMG, 80,000 ghost voters were removed from the electoral register. However, KPMG suspects that up to one million more deceased voters could still be on the register."

(...)

"Kenya's National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), which was founded after the 2007-08 post-election violence, has also raised concerns over the upcoming polls. The organization's vice chairperson, Irene Wanyoike, spoke of the "widening ethnic and political polarization and increased used of inflammatory language" by the political class and their supporters. The NCIC has flagged 20 out of 47 Kenyan counties as potential hot spots for violence. More than half of Kenya's population live in these regions."

www.dw.com/en/kenya-fears-of-rigging-ahead-of-election/a-39612229

[Deleted]

Very informative background piece - pointing out why this election may mark a break with monolithic ethnic voting, and the role of the post-2010 devolution.

[Deleted]

This tragedy might help the opposition.
...

Odinga and NASA keep making raging claims, not sure its a wise tactic. If their supporters think the polls will be rigged anyway it could depress turnout.

[Deleted]

President Kenyatta and VP William Ruto have offered Odinga's running mate Kalonzo Musyoka's to become Ruto running mate in 2022 if he defects to the Jubilee Party before the election. Seems a bit desperate, and old school ethnic kingpin politics (uniting the Kalenjin and Kamba with lots of Kikuyus on the main posts the cabinet).

Musyoka has said its ridiculous for the Jubilee Party leaders to "still nurse the illusion that the opposition coalition can break up weeks to the general election" and that "asking me to join them with offers to deputise Ruto in 2022 is a mockery to the Kamba community that has suffered under their leadership and we must teach them a lesson at the ballot box."

[Deleted]

"Tanzanian government has denied that President John Magufuli is interfering in Kenya’s election by supporting National Super Alliance flagbearer Raila Odinga. However, the Tanzanian opposition was yesterday adamant that Dr Magufuli was backing the Kenyans and accused Mr Odinga of supporting a “dictator”. The controversy follows Tanzanian opposition fears, some reported in the Nation, that Dr Magufuli, a personal friend of Mr Odinga, is providing financial and strategy support for the Nasa campaign."

www.nation.co.ke/news/Tanzania-denies-meddling-Kenya-affairs/1056-4030354-omf8e1/index.html

"Nasa presidential candidate Raila Odinga was evasive when asked to clear reports that the opposition has created a tallying centre in Tanzania. Mr Odinga initially dismissed the suggestion as “pure imagination” but then said its existence should not be a big deal since no law prevents interested parties from carrying out parallel tallying."

www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Raila-Odinga-plays-down-claims-of-tallying-centre-in-Tanzania-/1064-4030776-78vgfy/index.html

[Deleted]

Kenyatta ended up boycotting the debate, which then became a 90 min. solo-performance by Odinga.

"The second tier of the presidential debate kicked off half an hour late Monday night after President Uhuru Kenyatta failed to show up, with his opponent Raila Odinga appearing solo."

www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/07/raila-debates-solo-as-uhuru-skips-tv-debate-rules-out-violence-in-polls

"Uhuru Kenyatta said he decided to skip the debate because "it would have been a waste of time", and that he could "not debate with someone who does not have an agenda for this country."

"Do you want me to spend my time responding to Raila or commissioning projects? I decided that he will debate alone because I have nothing to debate with him. I will not waste my time there.”

www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru-snubbed-debate/1064-4031612-b3yep5/index.html

At the VP debate on the 16th only Eliud Kariara, who is running mate for irrelevant also-ran Japheth Kaluyu showed up, so this is definitely a step up for the organizers.  

NASA VP candidate Kalonzo Musyoka claims his absence was all part of the plan:

"Mr Musyoka on Tuesday said Mr Kenyatta fell for the trick and left Raila Odinga to have his way and say for over 90 minutes of prime time on radio and national TVs. His decision to keep off running mates’ debate on July 17, Mr Musyoka said, was a calculated scheme to make Jubilee believe Mr Odinga would also give the Monday media event a wide berth.

"We tricked them… we knew those guys fear being accountable to the citizens and that is why I told Raila to seize the moment."

www.nation.co.ke/news/Presidential-Debate-Kenya-Uhuru-Kenyatta/1056-4031404-grbxkf/index.html

[Deleted]

The opposition has threatened to boycott the poll claiming there is a rigging plot in place involving the military. The government naturally denies this and says the election will be held regardless. The NASA candidates will remain on the ballot whether they "boycott" the elections or not.

[Dan]

Presidential Election Results:

1. Uhuru Kenyatta (Jubilee) - 54.3%
2. Raila Odinga (National Super Alliance) - 44.7%
3. Joseph Nyagah (Independent) - 0.3%
4. Abduba Dida (Alliance for Real Change) - 0.3%
5. Ekuru Aukot (Thirdway Alliance) - 0.2%
6. Japheth Kaluyu (Independent) - 0.1%
7. Michael Mwaura (Independent) - 0.1%
8. Cyrus Jirongo (United Democratic) - 0.1%

[Deleted]

On Friday NASA filed a petition with the Supreme Court challenging Kenyatta’s re-election (the deadline was at midnight, so in the nick of time).

They allege several irregularities in the presidential vote including "numerous instances when their ticket was denied votes and others in which their competitor … had undeserved votes added to his total".

NASA claim, so far without providing proof, that hackers used the identity of a slain election official to manipulate the result in Kenyatta’s favour.

The electoral commission has said there was a hacking attempt but that it failed, and election observers saw no signs of interference with the vote.

[finsobruce]

Aug 20, 2017 12:18:26 GMT @odo said:

On Friday NASA filed a petition with the Supreme Court challenging Kenyatta’s re-election (the deadline was at midnight, so in the nick of time).

They allege several irregularities in the presidential vote including "numerous instances when their ticket was denied votes and others in which their competitor … had undeserved votes added to his total".

NASA claim, so far without providing proof, that hackers used the identity of a slain election official to manipulate the result in Kenyatta’s favour.

The electoral commission has said there was a hacking attempt but that it failed, and election observers saw no signs of interference with the vote.

ah, NASA have launched a rocket into the electoral process....

I'll get my zero gravity suit.

[Deleted]

The election resulted in a big turnover: 24 of 47 county governors, 62% of incumbent MPs and 79% of women representatives lost their seats.

Also with noticing that voters generally weren't focused on the presidential vote:

"At some constituency tallying centres, throngs of supporters waited to hear the results of local races. They celebrated jubilantly if their candidates won, but had often vacated the centre by the time the presidential result was announced. In a few instances, when the audience had thinned to just a few observers, media and security personnel, officials did not even bother to read out the presidential tallies. As one returning officer explained, “I announce the local races first because that is what people are here for”.

africanarguments.org/2017/08/18/kenya-voted-for-change-and-got-it-at-the-local-level-elections

[Deleted]

It doesn't look like NASA have a particularly strong case. Their main arguments are that:

IEBC and the Jubilee administration deliberately undermined the deployment of technology.
- hard to prove that this was done deliberately and not through ineptness

That the government violated the Constitution and the electoral laws by using state resources to campaign and intimidate the opposition.
- undoubtedly true, but not something you annul the result on, and the government using state resources is more or less accepted in African elections

Significant number of returns were signed by persons not listed as returning officers and not accredited as such by IEBC thereby rendering those results invalid.
- if true, their best card, but will not be enough to change the result

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Election annulled by the Supreme Court of Kenya, following the petition.

Petition and hearing details here: www.judiciary.go.ke/portal/blog/post/presidential-petition-1-of-2017

[Dan]

Aug 25, 2017 13:02:20 GMT @odo said:

It doesn't look like NASA have a particularly strong case.

In fairness, we've all been there at one time or another! 

[Deleted]

Kenya's Supreme Court has nullified the result of the presidential election. Revote within 2 months.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/kenya-supreme-court-annuls-result-presidential-polls-170901084743579.html

[timrollpickering]

Jun 21, 2017 15:25:43 GMT @odo said:

Many Odinga supporters point out that the Kikuyus and Kalenjin only make up 35% and will never get back in power if they lose it because "the 40 tribes" (the rest of the population) will be able to outvote them, so they will do anything to stop an Odinga victory.

There are officially 44 tribes - is the 40 others comment an innocent mistake or do Odinga & supporters not recognise the Makonde and Asians as tribes?

Indeed has they been any notable support for either candidate from the Asian community? Or even from white Kenyans?