Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 18, 2018 0:02:24 GMT
Difficult to know who would have won a seat like Strathkelvin & Bearsden in 2017. It was Labour in 1992 but in 2017 the successor seats were SNP and LD with the Tories slightly ahead of Labour in one of them. Of course all of that doesn't mean Labour might not still have been ahead in the old seat which is what makes this exercise interesting.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 0:11:31 GMT
The Scottish ones are going to be tricky for me. I think in that case though it can only be Lib Dem or SNP. I hadn't realised how comfortably Jo Swinson had won in East Dunbartonshire last year and that possibly makes Lib Dem favourites, but a fair chunk of her majority must have come out of Milngavie and there would be a hefty SNP vote coming out of the 'Kirkintilloch East' area (and hardly any Lib Dem votes there) so would be pretty close
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 18, 2018 1:02:47 GMT
This is what I've come up with although I've probably made some silly mistakes from doing it quickly:
2017 results on 1992 boundaries, seat changes compared to 1992:
Lab instead of Con (58)
Battersea
B'hm Edgbaston
B'ham Hall Green
Bolton NE
Brent North
Brentford
Beckenham
Brighton Kemptown
Bristol NW
Bristol West
Bury N
Bury S
Cardiff N
City of Chester
Chorley
Coventry SW
Crosby
Croydon C
Croydon NE
Davyhulme
Delyn
Ealing Acton
Ealing North
Edmonton
Eltham
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Erith & Crayford
Exeter
Falmouth & Camborne
Finchley
Gedling
Harrow W
Hayes
Hendon N
High Peak
Hove
Ilford N
Lancaster
Leeds NE
Leeds NW
Littleborough
Luton N
Luton S
Milton Keynes SW
Mitcham
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Drake
Slough
Southampton Test
Stockton S
Stroud
Tynemouth
Wanstead
Westminster N
Wirral S
Wirral W
Wolverhampton SW
Lab instead of LD (4)
Liverpool Mossley Hill
Rochdale
Sheffield Hallam
Southwark
Lab instead of PC (1)
Ynys Mon
Con instead of Lab (13)
Cannock & Burntwood
Copeland
Derbyshire NE
Mansfield
Nuneaton
Crewe
Pendle
Rossendale
Sherwood
Stoke S
Walsall N
Warwickshire N
The Wrekin
Con instead of LD (8)
Berwick
Cornwall North
Gordon
Montgomery
Roxburgh
Truro
Tweeddale
Yeovil
Con instead of SNP (3)
Angus E
Banff
Moray
LD instead of Con (8)
Carshalton
Eastbourne
Edinburgh W
Kingston-upon-Thames
Norfolk N
Richmond & Barnes
Surbiton
Twickenham
Green instead of Con (1)
Brighton Pavilion
SNP instead of Lab (23)
Cumbernauld
Cunninghame N
Cunninghame S
Dundee E
Dundee W
East Kilbride
Edinburgh E
Edinburgh Leith
Falkirk
Fife C
Glasgow C
Glasgow N
Glasgow Govan
Glasgow Maryhill
Glasgow Shettleston
Kilmarnock
Linlithgow
Livingston
Monklands E
Motherwell S
Paisley N
Paisley S
Western Isles
SNP instead of LD: (2)
Inverness
Ross
Not sure (28)
Aberdeen North: SNP/Lab
Bishop Auckland: Lab/Con
Blackpool North: Con/Lab
Blackpool South: Lab/Con
Broxtowe: Con/Lab
Carmarthen: Lab/Con/PC
Ceredigion: LD/PC
Clackmannan: Lab/Con/SNP
Clydesdale: Lab/SNP/Con
Dumbarton: SNP/Lab
Dunfermline West: SNP/Lab
Edinburgh Central: Lab/SNP/Con
Falkirk E: SNP/Lab
Fife NE: SNP/LD
Glasgow S: SNP/Lab
Glasgow Provan: SNP/Lab
Inverclyde: Lab/SNP
Keighley: Lab/Con
Kensington: Lab/Con
Motherwell North: SNP/Lab
Newcastle-under-Lyme: Lab/Con
Pudsey: Con/Lab
Pembroke: Con/Lab
Perth: SNP/Con
Plymouth Devonport: Lab/Con
Renfrew West: Con/Lab/SNP
Strathkelvin: Con/SNP/LD
Thurrock: Con/Lab
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 1:20:35 GMT
This is what I've come up with although I've probably made some silly mistakes from doing it quickly: 2017 results on 1992 boundaries, seat changes compared to 1992: Lab instead of Con (58) Battersea B'hm Edgbaston B'ham Hall Green Bolton NE Brent North Brentford Beckenham Brighton Kemptown Bristol NW Bristol West Bury N Bury S Cardiff N City of Chester Chorley Coventry SW Crosby Croydon C Croydon NE Davyhulme Delyn Ealing Acton Ealing North Edmonton Eltham Enfield N Enfield Southgate Erith & Crayford Exeter Falmouth & Camborne Finchley Gedling Harrow W Hayes Hendon N High Peak Hove Ilford N Lancaster Leeds NE Leeds NW Littleborough Luton N Luton S Milton Keynes SW Mitcham Portsmouth S Plymouth Drake Slough Southampton Test Stockton S Stroud Tynemouth Wanstead Westminster N Wirral S Wirral W Wolverhampton SW Lab instead of LD (4) Liverpool Mossley Hill Rochdale Sheffield Hallam Southwark Lab instead of PC (1) Ynys Mon Con instead of Lab (13) Cannock & Burntwood Copeland Derbyshire NE Mansfield Nuneaton Crewe Pendle Rossendale Sherwood Stoke S Walsall N Warwickshire N The Wrekin Con instead of LD (8) Berwick Cornwall North Gordon Montgomery Roxburgh Truro Tweeddale Yeovil Con instead of SNP (3) Angus E Banff Moray LD instead of Con (8) Carshalton Eastbourne Edinburgh W Kingston-upon-Thames Norfolk N Richmond & Barnes Surbiton Twickenham Green instead of Con (1) Brighton Pavilion SNP instead of Lab (23) Cumbernauld Cunninghame N Cunninghame S Dundee E Dundee W East Kilbride Edinburgh E Edinburgh Leith Falkirk Fife C Glasgow C Glasgow N Glasgow Govan Glasgow Maryhill Glasgow Shettleston Kilmarnock Linlithgow Livingston Monklands E Motherwell S Paisley N Paisley S Western Isles SNP instead of LD: (2) Inverness Ross Not sure (28) Aberdeen North: SNP/Lab Bishop Auckland: Lab/Con Blackpool North: Con/Lab Blackpool South: Lab/Con Broxtowe: Con/Lab Carmarthen: Lab/Con/PC Ceredigion: LD/PC Clackmannan: Lab/Con/SNP Clydesdale: Lab/SNP/Con Dumbarton: SNP/Lab Dunfermline West: SNP/Lab Edinburgh Central: Lab/SNP/Con Falkirk E: SNP/Lab Fife NE: SNP/LD Glasgow S: SNP/Lab Glasgow Provan: SNP/Lab Inverclyde: Lab/SNP Keighley: Lab/Con Kensington: Lab/Con Motherwell North: SNP/Lab Newcastle-under-Lyme: Lab/Con Pudsey: Con/Lab Pembroke: Con/Lab Perth: SNP/Con Plymouth Devonport: Lab/Con Renfrew West: Con/Lab/SNP Strathkelvin: Con/SNP/LD Thurrock: Con/Lab Chingford - LAB instead of CON Hard to fathom Beckenham and Wanstead & Woodford being Labour seats but so much has changed demographically since ‘87/‘92. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jan 18, 2018 8:42:08 GMT
This is what I've come up with although I've probably made some silly mistakes from doing it quickly: 2017 results on 1992 boundaries, seat changes compared to 1992: Lab instead of LD (4) Liverpool Mossley Hill Rochdale Sheffield HallamSouthwark Hallam was Tory in 1992. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 9:06:56 GMT
This is what I've come up with although I've probably made some silly mistakes from doing it quickly: 2017 results on 1992 boundaries, seat changes compared to 1992: Lab instead of Con (58) Stroud I'd forgotten to note this one - I had it as a Tory seat on my map because I guess I'd forgotten it had gone Labour in 2017. But this would definitely have been Tory on the 1983 boundaries as it included the Tetbury area from Cotswold as well as other more Tory wards from Stroud district which are now excluded (Wotton, Minchinhampton etc) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 9:22:05 GMT
Also how are you unsure about the following?
Kensington - clearly the boundaries in place in 1992 would have been more favourable for Labour so they would have carried that comfortably
Thurrock - the only difference is East Tilbury ward which would almost certainly have voted Conservative in 2017
Newcastle under Lyme - Pretty sure there have been no boundary changes
Same goes for Broxtowe
Copeland I would think is too close to call. Littleborough & Saddleworth I have as Conservative on my numbers but it is for sure debatable
Also Hastings & Rye and Kingswood would definitely have been Labour on those boundaries
Edit: so would Harrow East
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 10:23:11 GMT
Also how are you unsure about the following? Kensington - clearly the boundaries in place in 1992 would have been more favourable for Labour so they would have carried that comfortably Thurrock - the only difference is East Tilbury ward which would almost certainly have voted Conservative in 2017 Newcastle under Lyme - Pretty sure there have been no boundary changes Same goes for Broxtowe Copeland I would think is too close to call. Littleborough & Saddleworth I have as Conservative on my numbers but it is for sure debatable Also Hastings & Rye and Kingswood would definitely have been Labour on those boundaries Edit: so would Harrow East Kingswood, really? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 10:31:34 GMT
What about Richmond & Barnes?
LD instead of CON?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 10:32:38 GMT
Also how are you unsure about the following? Kensington - clearly the boundaries in place in 1992 would have been more favourable for Labour so they would have carried that comfortably Thurrock - the only difference is East Tilbury ward which would almost certainly have voted Conservative in 2017 Newcastle under Lyme - Pretty sure there have been no boundary changes Same goes for Broxtowe Copeland I would think is too close to call. Littleborough & Saddleworth I have as Conservative on my numbers but it is for sure debatable Also Hastings & Rye and Kingswood would definitely have been Labour on those boundaries Edit: so would Harrow East Kingswood, really? Totally different boundaries then. Included four wards now in Bristol East which would have provided a huge Labour lead in 2017. Also included Staple Hill (strongest Labour ward in the Kingswood area but which is now in FABS) and didn't include Siston, Bitton, Oldland common and Emerson Green (basically all the most Tory areas of the current seat which were then in Wansdyke) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 10:34:26 GMT
What about Richmond & Barnes? LD instead of CON? On my figures it is but very close. I have the Conservatives carrying the Richmond part of the seat (with the LDs ahead in the Kingston wards) but then East Twickenham tips it over to the LDs |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 10:35:50 GMT
Totally different boundaries then. Included four wards now in Bristol East which would have provided a huge Labour lead in 2017. Also included Staple Hill (strongest Labour ward in the Kingswood area but which is now in FABS) and didn't include Siston, Bitton, Oldland common and Emerson Green (basically all the most Tory areas of the current seat which were then in Wansdyke) Ah right. What about Chipping Barnet? Possible that using 1992 boundaries Labour would've won 3/4 Barnet seats while they won 0/3 on 2010 boundaries in 2017. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 10:55:18 GMT
Totally different boundaries then. Included four wards now in Bristol East which would have provided a huge Labour lead in 2017. Also included Staple Hill (strongest Labour ward in the Kingswood area but which is now in FABS) and didn't include Siston, Bitton, Oldland common and Emerson Green (basically all the most Tory areas of the current seat which were then in Wansdyke) Ah right. What about Chipping Barnet? Possible that using 1992 boundaries Labour would've won 3/4 Barnet seats while they won 0/3 on 2010 boundaries in 2017. No chipping Barnet would have been slightly safer for the Conservatives on the old boundaries - think Coppetts |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 18, 2018 13:15:28 GMT
Yes, definitely more Labour seats now but different electoral geography in '83. Think Foot riding a Corbyn surge...    What are these results? Calculated using some rather old election forecasting software - 1983 base then UNS to reach last year's totals. The geography has changed. Thinking further back for the northern part of the West Riding the Tories would hold Skipton, Ripon, Harrogate, Barkston Ash, Pudsey (just), Shipley (close) and Brighouse & Spenborough (not close) on the 1955 boundaries and reallocating 2017 votes. Pretty grim for the Blues but there's an area stretching from Queensbury, eastern Calderdale, skirting around parts of the Spen Valley then bursting into Morley, Rothwell and Greater Wakefield that is trending rightwards. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 13:32:03 GMT
Calculated using some rather old election forecasting software - 1983 base then UNS to reach last year's totals. The geography has changed. Thinking further back for the northern part of the West Riding the Tories would hold Skipton, Ripon, Harrogate, Barkston Ash, Pudsey (just), Shipley (close) and Brighouse & Spenborough (not close) on the 1955 boundaries and reallocating 2017 votes. Pretty grim for the Blues but there's an area stretching from Queensbury, eastern Calderdale, skirting around parts of the Spen Valley then bursting into Morley, Rothwell and Greater Wakefield that is trending rightwards. Would the current Morley & Outwood have voted Conservative in 1983? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 13:45:18 GMT
Calculated using some rather old election forecasting software - 1983 base then UNS to reach last year's totals. The geography has changed. Thinking further back for the northern part of the West Riding the Tories would hold Skipton, Ripon, Harrogate, Barkston Ash, Pudsey (just), Shipley (close) and Brighouse & Spenborough (not close) on the 1955 boundaries and reallocating 2017 votes. Pretty grim for the Blues but there's an area stretching from Queensbury, eastern Calderdale, skirting around parts of the Spen Valley then bursting into Morley, Rothwell and Greater Wakefield that is trending rightwards. Would the current Morley & Outwood have voted Conservative in 1983? I'll check that in a minute. It's possible. I have done the revers calculation and it looks like the one Tory seat there now would be replaced by two Labour seats (Leeds South & Morley and Normanton) though Normanton would be very close. Incidentally another seat that would switch is Northampton North, given the main difference is that on those boundaries it included Dallington and Kings Heath |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2018 13:49:22 GMT
Calculated using some rather old election forecasting software - 1983 base then UNS to reach last year's totals. The geography has changed. Thinking further back for the northern part of the West Riding the Tories would hold Skipton, Ripon, Harrogate, Barkston Ash, Pudsey (just), Shipley (close) and Brighouse & Spenborough (not close) on the 1955 boundaries and reallocating 2017 votes. Pretty grim for the Blues but there's an area stretching from Queensbury, eastern Calderdale, skirting around parts of the Spen Valley then bursting into Morley, Rothwell and Greater Wakefield that is trending rightwards. Would the current Morley & Outwood have voted Conservative in 1983? I think not - probably a Labour majority of about 1000-1,500 |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 18, 2018 17:21:58 GMT
This is what I've come up with although I've probably made some silly mistakes from doing it quickly: 2017 results on 1992 boundaries, seat changes compared to 1992: Lab instead of LD (4) Liverpool Mossley Hill Rochdale Sheffield HallamSouthwark Hallam was Tory in 1992. We're doing the 2017 votes on the 1992 boundaries. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2018 18:42:09 GMT
We're doing the 2017 votes on the 1992 boundaries. His point still stands though. As Hallam was put in the 'LAB instead of LD' column. It was held by neither Lab nor LD in 1992. |
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 19, 2018 0:21:08 GMT
This is what I've come up with although I've probably made some silly mistakes from doing it quickly: 2017 results on 1992 boundaries, seat changes compared to 1992: Not sure (28) Aberdeen North: SNP/Lab Bishop Auckland: Lab/Con Blackpool North: Con/Lab Blackpool South: Lab/Con Broxtowe: Con/Lab Carmarthen: Lab/Con/PC Ceredigion: LD/PC Clackmannan: Lab/Con/SNP Clydesdale: Lab/SNP/Con Dumbarton: SNP/Lab Dunfermline West: SNP/Lab Edinburgh Central: Lab/SNP/Con Falkirk E: SNP/Lab Fife NE: SNP/LD Glasgow S: SNP/Lab Glasgow Provan: SNP/Lab Inverclyde: Lab/SNP Keighley: Lab/Con Kensington: Lab/Con Motherwell North: SNP/Lab Newcastle-under-Lyme: Lab/Con Pudsey: Con/Lab Pembroke: Con/Lab Perth: SNP/Con Plymouth Devonport: Lab/Con Renfrew West: Con/Lab/SNP Strathkelvin: Con/SNP/LD Thurrock: Con/Lab Keighley boundaries look pretty much exactly the same, so that's Labour, as would be Pudsey, which included a few thousand voters now in Leeds North West. The two Blackpool seats can't both be tied - I'm fairly sure Blackpool South would be Labour and lean that way in Blackpool North as well. |
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