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Post by hullenedge on Jan 17, 2018 18:50:06 GMT
The Northern Boroughs using 1983 boundaries/base and UNS(!):-  Not sure about Stockport. |
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Jan 17, 2018 19:00:38 GMT
The Northern Boroughs using 1983 boundaries/base and UNS(!):- Not sure about Stockport. Sheffield Hallam's an interesting one there. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 19:05:00 GMT
It's not looking good in London though the patterns are obviously going to be different elsewhere (fewer seats in some counties like Beds, Cambs, Kent will likely come at Labour's expense rather than the Tories but yes in many others as benjl says it will be the Conservatives down a seat and with Labour gaining in other cities)
What is so bad in London is that the Conservatives end up with fewer seats on the old boundaries despite a considerably larger total. My figures give Lab 60 (49) Con 19 (21) LD 5 (3) (figures in brackets being the actual seats won in 2017)
Three seats were very close on my figures, within margin of error - Fulham (which was narrowly Conservative), Richmond & Barnes (Lib Dem) and Erith & Crayford (Lab)
To break it down a bit regionally, in Essex the Conservatives benefit from the re-emergence of Hornchurch but Labour are up two with extra seats in Redbridge/Waltham Forest and Newham (Yes both Chingford and Wanstead & Woodford would have been Labour)
In Northern Inner London it's the Conservatives who (just) gain a seat thanks to the separation of Chelsea and Fulham but in Middlesex they're out of Harrow and 3 Tory seats in Barnet become 2 Tory and 2 Labour.
In South London Labour gain from extra seats in Croydon, Lambeth/Southwark and Lewisham Greenwich and also gain Beckenham(!)
Meanwhile the redistribution of seats in Kingston and Richmond results in the Lib Dems taking all four seats.
The most surprising result for me was Beckenham, but perhaps the most surprising thing of all is that Labour taking Wanstead & Woodford (comfortably at that) was no surprise at all
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 17, 2018 19:13:43 GMT
Can't believe Wanstead & Woodford, the Tories were getting around 60% there in 1983, 1987 and 1992 IIRC.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 19:31:30 GMT
Scanning the rest of Southern England.
Cornwall: Labour would have won Falmouth & Camborne putting them up 1 and Conservatives down 2
Avon: Labour would have won Kingswood on those boundaries so again Conservatives down 2 net (with one fewer seat in total)
Conservatives would lose seat due to their being fewer in Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire and Wiltshire (2) - possible that the old Swindon seat would have been Labour (though I think not)
IN Hampshire the Tories lose out on 3 safe seats which didn't exist then (Romsey, Meon Valley, Hants NE) and probably lose Southampton Itchen into the bargain.
In Sussex there's one fewer seat in the West and Hastings & Rye goes Labour but in Kent Canterbury flips to the Conservatives compensating for the loss of Faversham & Mid Kent (part of which restores the Conservative majority in Canterbury)
IN Essex all seats are Conservative but there's two fewer, one fewer in each of Herts, Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire (but Peterborough - probably - goes back in the Tory column).
In Bedford it's Labour who lose out but they'd gain Milton Keynes SW. No change in Oxfordshire or Surrey.
Berkshire loses Maidenhead but Reading East will be a lot closer (I need to check figures but it loses Katesgrove and swaps Woodley for some much less Labour friendly (and more numerous) voters from other parts of Wokingham district).
Looking further afield, Conservatives would also lose out from extra seats now in Northants, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Worcestershire, Shropshire and Staffordshire. IN Warwickshire however the loss of the extra seat puts Warwick & Leamington back in the Tory column while in Derbyshire the same thing happens wrt Derby North
Labour get 2 extra seats in Birmingham, 1 in Coventry, 1 in Sandwell
Edit: I think Lincoln would be Tory on those boundaries actually so that is in the Warwickshire, Derbyshire category
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jan 17, 2018 19:38:18 GMT
The Northern Boroughs using 1983 boundaries/base and UNS(!):-
Not sure about Stockport. Personally I wouldn't be sure about Wallasey, Wirral West & Wirral South, Crosby, Leeds N.W. & Leeds N.E., or Littleborough & Saddleworth either, to be honest; of course this is just my gut speaking here, but I would've had those seats going Labour. What size majorities do you have in those seats? |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 17, 2018 19:39:19 GMT
The Northern Boroughs using 1983 boundaries/base and UNS(!):-
Not sure about Stockport. Personally I wouldn't be sure about Wallasey, Wirral West & Wirral South, Crosby, Leeds N.W. & Leeds N.E., or Littleborough & Saddleworth either, to be honest; of course this is just my gut speaking here, but I would've had those seats going Labour. What size majorities do you have in those seats? With respect the map looks wrong in those places, they'd definitely be Labour now. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 19:41:13 GMT
The Northern Boroughs using 1983 boundaries/base and UNS(!):-
Not sure about Stockport. Personally I wouldn't be sure about Wallasey, Wirral West & Wirral South, Crosby, Leeds N.W. & Leeds N.E., or Littleborough & Saddleworth either, to be honest; of course this is just my gut speaking here, but I would've had those seats going Labour. What size majorities do you have in those seats? He's doiung UNS from the 1983 results - would be about 6% Con -> Lab so only Wallasey would have been close. Labour were on 10% in Crosby in 1983! |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jan 17, 2018 19:42:53 GMT
Personally I wouldn't be sure about Wallasey, Wirral West & Wirral South, Crosby, Leeds N.W. & Leeds N.E., or Littleborough & Saddleworth either, to be honest; of course this is just my gut speaking here, but I would've had those seats going Labour. What size majorities do you have in those seats? He's doiung UNS from the 1983 results - would be about 6% Con -> Lab so only Wallasey would have been close. Labour were on 10% in Crosby in 1983! So is that not taking into account the intervening elections then? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 19:50:45 GMT
He's doiung UNS from the 1983 results - would be about 6% Con -> Lab so only Wallasey would have been close. Labour were on 10% in Crosby in 1983! So is that not taking into account the intervening elections then? It wouldn't be UNS then would it |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2018 19:57:08 GMT
On 1992 boundaries there are only 2 seats in London Labour would’ve won in 1992 but not 2010:
Hampstead & Highgate
Hornsey & Wood Green
Both bordering each other.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 17, 2018 20:04:00 GMT
Carmarthen will be an interesting one. Perhaps Labour would have won it despite being second in both the current seats.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jan 17, 2018 20:16:22 GMT
Carmarthen will be an interesting one. Perhaps Labour would have won it despite being second in both the current seats. I think that may be quite possible, if albeit only just. For the Welsh seats, I'd have: * Clwyd North West (barely, what with Rhyl being almost monolithically Labour, offset heavily by Tory votes in Colwyn Bay, Abergele, and Towyn & Kinmel Bay), Montgomery, Brecon & Radnor, Monmouth, Vale of Glamorgan, and Pembrokeshire all going Conservative * Caernarfon, Meirionnydd Nant Conwy, and possibly Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire going to Plaid Cymru (on balance of probabilities) * All the other seats going to Labour, though not entirely sure about Clwyd South West, but I think that Labour might just have enough votes in Ruabon, Rhosllannerchrugog, and that general area, to carry them through I also have Conwy going Labour, despite its successor seats Aberconwy having vote Conservative, and Arfon having gone for Plaid Cymru; Labour came withing a hair's breadth of taking both seats last June, and even accounting for the boundary differences, I think that Labour would've accrued enough votes in Bangor to offset the Conservative leads in Conwy and Llandudno, with Plaid Cymru barely getting much of a look in on these boundaries. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 17, 2018 20:25:46 GMT
Personally I wouldn't be sure about Wallasey, Wirral West & Wirral South, Crosby, Leeds N.W. & Leeds N.E., or Littleborough & Saddleworth either, to be honest; of course this is just my gut speaking here, but I would've had those seats going Labour. What size majorities do you have in those seats? With respect the map looks wrong in those places, they'd definitely be Labour now. Yes, definitely more Labour seats now but different electoral geography in '83. Think Foot riding a Corbyn surge...    |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2018 23:31:13 GMT
With respect the map looks wrong in those places, they'd definitely be Labour now. Yes, definitely more Labour seats now but different electoral geography in '83. Think Foot riding a Corbyn surge... What are these results? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 23:34:11 GMT
Can confirm Reading East would have been Conservative on 1983 boundaries.
Over to the North West, Cheshire see Labour down two net with the disappearance of Weaver Vale and Crewe & Nantwich goes Conservative.
Extra Labour seats in Liverpool Mossley Hill, Knowlsey South, Eccles, Davyhulme. Extra Conservative seat in Littleborough & Saddleworth but Bolton West too close to call.
Labour gain Blackpool North but Conservatives are compensated by Wyre.
Carlisle and Copeland both likely to be very close on old boundaries. Westmorland & Lonsdale is Conservative
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 17, 2018 23:44:19 GMT
I take it from your comment above that Oxford West & Abingdon would have been Conservative.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 23:55:15 GMT
I take it from your comment above that Oxford West & Abingdon would have been Conservative. No my comment implied that there would be no change to the current configuration in Oxfordshire so that would mean Lib Dems in OxWAB. It's a guess more than a calculation but I think the current boundaries are more favourable to the Conservatives than those in place in 1983 (when there was more of Oxford in the seat and less of non-Oxford (ie Kidlington etc)). That said the Conservatives are well ahead of the Lib Dems in Oxford East now so the Central Oxford wards which are now in that seat may not have helped the Lib Dems all that much if at all. Still I think Kidlington would be decisive |
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 17, 2018 23:56:19 GMT
Labour gain Blackpool North but Conservatives are compensated by Wyre. Lancashire has the same number of seats, so Wyre only makes up for the non-existence of Wyre and Preston North. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 23:59:04 GMT
Labour gain Blackpool North but Conservatives are compensated by Wyre. Lancashire has the same number of seats, so Wyre only makes up for the non-existence of Wyre and Preston North. Yes you're quite right. I got confused as Lancashire lost a seat in 1997 then regained one in 2010. I was forgetting of the existence of that absurdity of a constituency |
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