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Post by finsobruce on Jan 2, 2018 19:26:22 GMT
Brexit has helped the Tories get a higher floor in Hallam, as they have taken LD votes in areas like Stannington and Totley (note - not so much reclaiming tactical votes). However, it has made reclaiming liberal LD tactical voters and LD-Con swing voters more difficult. I think the Tories have a ceiling of around 30% at the moment. As to O’Mara, I’d be shocked if he wants to stand again. people said the same about Mhairi Black. She got used to the idea of being an MP. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jan 2, 2018 20:16:12 GMT
Brexit has helped the Tories get a higher floor in Hallam, as they have taken LD votes in areas like Stannington and Totley (note - not so much reclaiming tactical votes). However, it has made reclaiming liberal LD tactical voters and LD-Con swing voters more difficult. I think the Tories have a ceiling of around 30% at the moment. As to O’Mara, I’d be shocked if he wants to stand again. people said the same about Mhairi Black. She got used to the idea of being an MP. The circumstances are a tad different though. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 2, 2018 20:26:21 GMT
people said the same about Mhairi Black. She got used to the idea of being an MP. The circumstances are a tad different though. not that different. she had her old social media stuff dug up against her and was portrayed as being young and feckless and wouldn't want the hassle. I just don't think you can take it as a given that he will stand down. He might do, he might not. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jan 2, 2018 20:28:14 GMT
The circumstances are a tad different though. not that different. she had her old social media stuff dug up against her and was portrayed as being young and feckless and wouldn't want the hassle. I just don't think you can take it as a given that he will stand down. He might do, he might not. She didn’t have the same issues after her comments were dragged up. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 2, 2018 20:30:58 GMT
not that different. she had her old social media stuff dug up against her and was portrayed as being young and feckless and wouldn't want the hassle. I just don't think you can take it as a given that he will stand down. He might do, he might not. She didn’t have the same issues after her comments were dragged up. she was hassled by a lot of the press pretty much from the minute she got in the House. I'm not a fan you understand, but she certainly didn't have an easy ride by any means. anyway let's leave it at that. he'll go if he wants to and not if he doesn't. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 2, 2018 22:34:04 GMT
May depend on the outcome of the inquiry. I feel quite angry that as usual the Tories are getting on with the relatively minor accusations whereas we appear to be dragging everything out for months on end
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Post by ccoleman on Jan 2, 2018 23:19:30 GMT
The Tories winning Sheffield Hallam would certainly be a shock - yes it's a very affluent seat but beyond that it has little in common with your typical Conservative constituency, and certainly nothing in common with the seats the Tories gained in 2017.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 3, 2018 1:06:41 GMT
That is all 'old' thinking and comparison with 1992 and 1997 and 2010, etc. which serves no earthly purpose. If it did Labour would not have gained Canterbury nor the Conservatives lots of seats in Scotland. We are in new territory and the 'rules' are not as effective, so forecasting as you have above for an unknown date in the future does not appear to me to be worthwhile. There are sea changes in the thinking and habits of many, and Conservatives are regrouping and planning, O'Mara has damaged one brand and the LD vote could decline again. There is nothing writ into constituencies linking them to council results or past GEs. No but the current Tory leadership didn’t do very well in seats that voted 65% Remain in June such as this. I agree the June result was encouraging and with Clegg gone the LDs could fall back further but I don’t think there’s the base here for a Conservative win these days. Look at comparable seats like Edinburgh West and Leeds NW. I guess Edinburgh SW isn’t hugely different from this and the Conservatives nearly won that - who knows? If the Conservatives ever do win back Hallam I’ll give you £100. Noted with relish. Will spend it on dinner with you in Sheffield. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2018 2:46:37 GMT
No but the current Tory leadership didn’t do very well in seats that voted 65% Remain in June such as this. I agree the June result was encouraging and with Clegg gone the LDs could fall back further but I don’t think there’s the base here for a Conservative win these days. Look at comparable seats like Edinburgh West and Leeds NW. I guess Edinburgh SW isn’t hugely different from this and the Conservatives nearly won that - who knows? If the Conservatives ever do win back Hallam I’ll give you £100. Noted with relish. Will spend it on dinner with you in Sheffield. We can go to one of the pubs in the seat - Dore Moor inn looks good. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2018 2:47:56 GMT
The Tories winning Sheffield Hallam would certainly be a shock - yes it's a very affluent seat but beyond that it has little in common with your typical Conservative constituency, and certainly nothing in common with the seats the Tories gained in 2017. Indeed. The Conservatives got a better result in Sheffield Sourh East (and a whole swathe of other Leave seats) than Hallam. |
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Post by ccoleman on Jan 3, 2018 3:43:41 GMT
Very much the same in Leeds, with the Tories performing better in Leeds East, Central and West than in Leeds North West, and with Leeds East having a smaller Labour majority than Leeds North East.
2017 was a funny election in a lot of ways.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 3, 2018 10:04:09 GMT
Noted with relish. Will spend it on dinner with you in Sheffield. We can go to one of the pubs in the seat - Dore Moor inn looks good. Cross Scythes at Totley or one of many nearer the centre. I hope so. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2018 10:27:53 GMT
Very much the same in Leeds, with the Tories performing better in Leeds East, Central and West than in Leeds North West, and with Leeds East having a smaller Labour majority than Leeds North East. 2017 was a funny election in a lot of ways. Yes. The idea that the Conservatives would get closer in Leeds East than in Leeds NE or NW would’ve been laughed at 20 years ago. But remember that: The Conservatives got over half the vote in Plymouth, Moor View while losing by 6k in Sutton & Devonport. The Conservatives got closer to winning Nottingham North than Nottingham South where Labour won by 1,700 votes in 2010. The Tories got a higher share of the vote in Stoke-on-Trent than Bristol. The Conservatives got closer to winning Dagenham than Hampstead. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jan 4, 2018 22:11:30 GMT
Boxplots for both parties in the election by MDI decile - will explain later  D4 - Bristol West, Manchester Withingdon D6 - Oxford East, Brighton Pavilion, Blaydon D8 - Cambridge, Leeds North West, Sefton Central, Harrow West D9 - Kingston and Surbiton D10 - Sheffield Hallam, Twickenham  Outliers: D2 - Clacton, Torbay D4 - St Ives, North Cornwall D8 - Sefton Central, Harrow West |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 16, 2018 21:02:44 GMT
Tried and failed to get some reasonable figures for 2017 Lab performance vs 2010 LD vote share (there is a good correlation -0.57)...instead ran a regression for Con/Lab 2017 leads vs 2010 leads (strong correlation 0.94 but that's not surprising). The figures in bold are the deviation from the 2017 lead and only listed +/-10% besides 'gains':-   |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 17, 2018 16:25:06 GMT
An interesting project IMO would be to try and work out what the 2017 general election result would have been if the 1983-1997 boundaries had still been in place. Maybe Corbyn would have been able to form a government for instance.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 16:36:12 GMT
An interesting project IMO would be to try and work out what the 2017 general election result would have been if the 1983-1997 boundaries had still been in place. Maybe Corbyn would have been able to form a government for instance. That's my evening taken care of then.. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 17, 2018 17:14:44 GMT
An interesting project IMO would be to try and work out what the 2017 general election result would have been if the 1983-1997 boundaries had still been in place. Maybe Corbyn would have been able to form a government for instance. Do you mean the 1983-92 boundaries, or the 1992-97 ones? |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 17, 2018 18:35:25 GMT
An interesting project IMO would be to try and work out what the 2017 general election result would have been if the 1983-1997 boundaries had still been in place. Maybe Corbyn would have been able to form a government for instance. Do you mean the 1983-92 boundaries, or the 1992-97 ones? Hadn't really considered it but let's say 1992-97. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 17, 2018 18:41:57 GMT
An interesting project IMO would be to try and work out what the 2017 general election result would have been if the 1983-1997 boundaries had still been in place. Maybe Corbyn would have been able to form a government for instance. I’d guess so. An extra seat for Labour in Newcastle, Liverpool, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, Manchester, South Wales, Birmingham, ect. One less for the Tories in Norfolk, Devon, Hampshire, ect - but probably a few more in Scotland on much more favourable boundaries (as I believe Ayr has pointed out). I’ll be interested to see what Pete comes up with. The boundaries were probably a lot more favourable for Labour then because there were still a fair number of constituencies with small electorates in places like Glasgow, London, Merseyside, Birmingham that were mainly Labour seats. A "progressive alliance" was only 12 seats short of a majority in 2017 on 314 and those 1992 boundaries could have put them over the top. |
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