2017 General Election - some statistics

[Sibboleth]

The largest town in N.E. Derbyshire is Dronfield, a remarkably dull Sheffield commuter town: in no sense is the constituency more rural than High Peak. There were a few local issues in N.E. Derbyshire, but I suspect the main thing was simply that the Tories put the work in there but assumed High Peak was safe.

[bsjmcr]

Jan 2, 2018 0:17:17 GMT Sibboleth said:

The largest town in N.E. Derbyshire is Dronfield, a remarkably dull Sheffield commuter town: in no sense is the constituency more rural than High Peak. There were a few local issues in N.E. Derbyshire, but I suspect the main thing was simply that the Tories put the work in there but assumed High Peak was safe.

Of course HP isn't less rural as it were, I was just pointing out the presence of two major desirable commuter towns in the western side of it, the rest of it is rightly the Peak District. As for the latter, I found this exactly in my area, Bury South, which they tried hard to gain, and were complacent on Bury North which they then lost. In South though they did get more votes than 1997 when the incumbent since 1983 lost it, but labour's majority increased to 6,000 too. Unfortunately Mr Lewis has now been suspended, there's now speculation whether owing to boundary changes and after 20 years he may call it a day at the next election and so it would be interesting if a future candidate would be a local, centrist/moderate voice like him which people would value or a parachuted Corbynite, if it was the latter, there could well be a risk of a loss here. 

It seems the winning NED candidate was local himself, he stood in 2015 reducing Engel's majority to less than 2000, their 2010 candidate was anything but local, and it appears she was never local anyway, I think in these places people value local candidates.

[J.G.Harston]

I was fiddling with some maps over the weekend and stumbled across the local postcode maps. It struck me that - based as they are on convenient localities for getting from sorting office to letter box - that many of them make a lot more sense for showing gatherings of communities than the statistical regions or even the traditional counties.

The Sheffield postcode area makes a lot more sense as a "Sheffield City Region" than anything that excludes Hope Valley and includes the far southern end of Derbyshire Dales:


Similarly, Glossop is clearly "Machester-y", and not East Midlands:

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2018 2:03:11 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jan 2, 2018 0:17:17 GMT Sibboleth said:

The largest town in N.E. Derbyshire is Dronfield, a remarkably dull Sheffield commuter town: in no sense is the constituency more rural than High Peak. There were a few local issues in N.E. Derbyshire, but I suspect the main thing was simply that the Tories put the work in there but assumed High Peak was safe.

Of course HP isn't less rural as it were, I was just pointing out the presence of two major desirable commuter towns in the western side of it, the rest of it is rightly the Peak District. As for the latter, I found this exactly in my area, Bury South, which they tried hard to gain, and were complacent on Bury North which they then lost. In South though they did get more votes than 1997 when the incumbent since 1983 lost it, but labour's majority increased to 6,000 too. Unfortunately Mr Lewis has now been suspended, there's now speculation whether owing to boundary changes and after 20 years he may call it a day at the next election and so it would be interesting if a future candidate would be a local, centrist/moderate voice like him which people would value or a parachuted Corbynite, if it was the latter, there could well be a risk of a loss here. 

It seems the winning NED candidate was local himself, he stood in 2015 reducing Engel's majority to less than 2000, their 2010 candidate was anything but local, and it appears she was never local anyway, I think in these places people value local candidates.

Which city has a more public-sector dominated workforce?

Of course it’s worth remembering that there were large Tory increases in Sheffield (the party got over 30% in Heeley and Sheffield SE as well as scoring above 2010 on Hallam.

Most seats in Greater Manchester swung to Labour quite strongly.

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2018 5:54:28 GMT J.G.Harston said:

I was fiddling with some maps over the weekend and stumbled across the local postcode maps. It struck me that - based as they are on convenient localities for getting from sorting office to letter box - that many of them make a lot more sense for showing gatherings of communities than the statistical regions or even the traditional counties.

The Sheffield postcode area makes a lot more sense as a "Sheffield City Region" than anything that excludes Hope Valley and includes Amber Valley:


Similarly, Glossop is clearly "Machester-y", and not East Midlands:

Culturally and economically High Peak looks to Manchester.

NE Derbyshire swung much more in line with other East Midlands seats.

[J.G.Harston]

Jan 2, 2018 5:59:47 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Culturally and economically High Peak looks to Manchester.

Except for the Hope Valley which is functionally extended Sheffield suburbs.

Jan 2, 2018 5:59:47 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

NE Derbyshire swung much more in line with other East Midlands seats.

And with the neighbouring Hallam and Heeley seats where the Con vote near doubled.

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2018 6:51:06 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Jan 2, 2018 5:59:47 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Culturally and economically High Peak looks to Manchester.

Except for the Hope Valley which is functionally extended Sheffield suburbs.

Jan 2, 2018 5:59:47 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

NE Derbyshire swung much more in line with other East Midlands seats.

And with the neighbouring Hallam and Heeley seats where the Con vote near doubled.

Quite a similar swing in Derbyshire NE to Bassetlaw, Don Valley, Mansfield, Penistone and Rother Valley constituencies.

Maybe these seats are the new marginals that the Conservatives need to win a majority, with seats like Croydon Central and Southgate out of reach owing to demographic change to the Tories’ detriment.

In Hallam I’d expect the Conservatives to fall back a bit owing to anti-O’Mara tactical voting next time.

The Tory results in the Horn of Derbyshire were much better than in Hallam tbh.

[Lord Twaddleford]

Jan 2, 2018 7:37:44 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

In Hallam I’d expect the Conservatives to fall back a bit owing to anti-O’Mara tactical voting next time.

Somehow, I sincerely doubt that O'Mara is going to get re-selected...

[carlton43]

Jan 2, 2018 14:52:32 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

Jan 2, 2018 7:37:44 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

In Hallam I’d expect the Conservatives to fall back a bit owing to anti-O’Mara tactical voting next time.

Somehow, I sincerely doubt that O'Mara is going to get re-selected...

I agree.  I don't think the Conservatives will "...fall back a bit..." either. Why not assume Labour will fall back a bit for fairly obvious reasons and that there is all to play for in a post Clegg era in what ought to be and could again become a Conservative seat.

[The Bishop]

Jan 2, 2018 2:03:11 GMT bsjmcr said:

Unfortunately Mr Lewis has now been suspended, there's now speculation whether owing to boundary changes and after 20 years he may call it a day at the next election and so it would be interesting if a future candidate would be a local, centrist/moderate voice like him which people would value or a parachuted Corbynite, if it was the latter, there could well be a risk of a loss here. 

If there is a general move against the Tories at the next GE, Labour won't lose Bury South whoever their candidate is. It shouldn't be forgotten either that last time round the Tories poured huge resources into it (whilst relatively neglecting Bury N which they saw as "safe") Neither that likely next time I would say.

Wibbling on about a "parachuted Corbynite" probably betrays your true agenda, however. In reality, the local party will choose as they see fit.

[Ron Swanson]

One would reasonably assume that Jared would be blocked from standing again, due to his antics and also lack of activity as MP so far.

But if the Momentum activists are overly dogmatic and lack a suitable alternative they may prefer him over a Blairite or a red Tory.

I’d anticipate a fairly close-ish three way result here next time. Perhaps Tories in 3rd still but not by much.

[Merseymike]

Jan 2, 2018 15:31:24 GMT The Bishop said:

Jan 2, 2018 2:03:11 GMT bsjmcr said:

Unfortunately Mr Lewis has now been suspended, there's now speculation whether owing to boundary changes and after 20 years he may call it a day at the next election and so it would be interesting if a future candidate would be a local, centrist/moderate voice like him which people would value or a parachuted Corbynite, if it was the latter, there could well be a risk of a loss here. 

If there is a general move against the Tories at the next GE, Labour won't lose Bury South whoever their candidate is. It shouldn't be forgotten either that last time round the Tories poured huge resources into it (whilst relatively neglecting Bury N which they saw as "safe") Neither that likely next time I would say.

Wibbling on about a "parachuted Corbynite" probably betrays your true agenda, however. In reality, the local party will choose as they see fit.

And of course a local supporter of the Labour leadership and party programme is the most likely should he step down. I have my reasons for thinking it would be made an AWS though

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2018 15:05:34 GMT carlton43 said:

Jan 2, 2018 14:52:32 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

Somehow, I sincerely doubt that O'Mara is going to get re-selected...

I agree.  I don't think the Conservatives will "...fall back a bit..." either. Why not assume Labour will fall back a bit for fairly obvious reasons and that there is all to play for in a post Clegg era in what ought to be and could again become a Conservative seat.

I really don’t think so.

The Conservatives are still over 20% down on 1992 in Hallam - and the current boundaries are more favourable to the Conservatives than those.

But maybe something like the Ashcroft poll in late 2010:

(LDEM) 33%
(LAB) 31%
(CON) 28%

It could become a three-way marginal but the Conservatives haven’t won any council seats here since 2004. If they want to be competitive in GEd they should try to get back in contention in Dore & Totley.

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2018 14:52:32 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

Jan 2, 2018 7:37:44 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

In Hallam I’d expect the Conservatives to fall back a bit owing to anti-O’Mara tactical voting next time.

Somehow, I sincerely doubt that O'Mara is going to get re-selected...

I wonder if Oliver Coppard might take another look at it.

[iain]

Brexit has helped the Tories get a higher floor in Hallam, as they have taken LD votes in areas like Stannington and Totley (note - not so much reclaiming tactical votes). However, it has made reclaiming liberal LD tactical voters and LD-Con swing voters more difficult.

I think the Tories have a ceiling of around 30% at the moment.

As to O’Mara, I’d be shocked if he wants to stand again.

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2018 16:01:57 GMT iain said:

Brexit has helped the Tories get a higher floor in Hallam, as they have taken LD votes in areas like Stannington and Totley (note - not so much reclaiming tactical votes). However, it has made reclaiming liberal LD tactical voters and LD-Con swing voters more difficult.

I think the Tories have a ceiling of around 30% at the moment.

As to O’Mara, I’d be shocked if he wants to stand again.

Will the Tory candidate stand in the local elections perhaps? Also 30% sounds more believable than the idea they could win it back.

On these boundaries the Conservatives would have got over 30% in 2005 and probably 34% or so in 1997.

[iain]

No

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2018 16:19:27 GMT iain said:

No

If there’s a by-election in Hallam this year I reckon the LDs would win by about 3k.

[carlton43]

Jan 2, 2018 15:46:21 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Jan 2, 2018 15:05:34 GMT carlton43 said:

I agree.  I don't think the Conservatives will "...fall back a bit..." either. Why not assume Labour will fall back a bit for fairly obvious reasons and that there is all to play for in a post Clegg era in what ought to be and could again become a Conservative seat.

I really don’t think so.

The Conservatives are still over 20% down on 1992 in Hallam - and the current boundaries are more favourable to the Conservatives than those.

But maybe something like the Ashcroft poll in late 2010:

(LDEM) 33%
(LAB) 31%
(CON) 28%

It could become a three-way marginal but the Conservatives haven’t won any council seats here since 2004. If they want to be competitive in GEd they should try to get back in contention in Dore & Totley.

That is all 'old' thinking and comparison with 1992 and 1997 and 2010, etc. which serves no earthly purpose. If it did Labour would not have gained Canterbury nor the Conservatives lots of seats in Scotland. We are in new territory and the 'rules' are not as effective, so forecasting as you have above for an unknown date in the future does not appear to me to be worthwhile. There are sea changes in the thinking and habits of many, and Conservatives are regrouping and planning, O'Mara has damaged one brand and the LD vote could decline again. There is nothing writ into constituencies linking them to council results or past GEs.

[Deleted]

Jan 2, 2018 16:58:13 GMT carlton43 said:

Jan 2, 2018 15:46:21 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

I really don’t think so.

The Conservatives are still over 20% down on 1992 in Hallam - and the current boundaries are more favourable to the Conservatives than those.

But maybe something like the Ashcroft poll in late 2010:

(LDEM) 33%
(LAB) 31%
(CON) 28%

It could become a three-way marginal but the Conservatives haven’t won any council seats here since 2004. If they want to be competitive in GEd they should try to get back in contention in Dore & Totley.

That is all 'old' thinking and comparison with 1992 and 1997 and 2010, etc. which serves no earthly purpose. If it did Labour would not have gained Canterbury nor the Conservatives lots of seats in Scotland. We are in new territory and the 'rules' are not as effective, so forecasting as you have above for an unknown date in the future does not appear to me to be worthwhile. There are sea changes in the thinking and habits of many, and Conservatives are regrouping and planning, O'Mara has damaged one brand and the LD vote could decline again. There is nothing writ into constituencies linking them to council results or past GEs.

No but the current Tory leadership didn’t do very well in seats that voted 65% Remain in June such as this.

I agree the June result was encouraging and with Clegg gone the LDs could fall back further but I don’t think there’s the base here for a Conservative win these days.

Look at comparable seats like Edinburgh West and Leeds NW. I guess Edinburgh SW isn’t hugely different from this and the Conservatives nearly won that - who knows?

If the Conservatives ever do win back Hallam I’ll give you £100.