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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 29, 2017 0:05:39 GMT
Interesting that two seats in the same vicinity went in opposite directions in 2017, High Peak and NE Derbyshire. The demographics of the two seats must be very different. I'm trying to think of the last election when two seats in the same general area were "swapped" between parties. Maybe Cheltenham and Brecon & Radnor in 1992 would qualify. There's also of course Norwich South and Ipswich in 1987.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 29, 2017 1:23:38 GMT
Also that year, though not quite as close together, Telford/Wolverhampton SW - an almost reversal of the 1987 situation in the Wrekin/Wolverhampton NE
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 29, 2017 1:47:53 GMT
It was classic Tory "culture war" stuff - the trouble was, as with some similar gestures pre-election, it riled up their opponents rather more than it excited the "base". It might excite Conservative voters if fox hunting was something most are actually ever likely to do. They should have dropped it years ago. I suspect they thought they were guaranteed a landslide and could placate the hunts with no consequence for the election. Making a policy opposed by 70+% of the voters a key plank of an election campaign is never going to be a good idea. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 3:41:22 GMT
Birmingham, Erdington and Birmingham, Northfield in 1983.
One was a LAB GAIN on the new boundaries the other a CON REGAIN from the 1982 by-election.
Derby North and Derbyshire North East in 2017.
In 2015 both saw a similar swing to the Conservatives.
Crewe & Nantwich and Stoke South in 2017.
Glasgow, Cathcart and Renfrew West & Inverclyde in 1983.
Glasgow, Cathcart was another LAB GAIN on new boundaries.
Taunton and Weston-Super-Mare in 2005.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 12:12:40 GMT
Quite a fair distance between Taunton & Weston-super-Mare constituencies. Both traditionally in Somerset. An earlier poster gave the example of The Wrekin and Wolverhampton North East in 1987. Quite a distance between those. Quite a distance from Glasgow, Cathcart to Renfrew West & Inverclyde too but I gave that example because Cathcart was one of only 4 gains for Labour in 1983. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 29, 2017 12:33:01 GMT
Earlier examples of neighbouring seats in the same county - Bodmin and Truro in October 1974 and Torrington and Devon North in 1959
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 13:04:52 GMT
Crewe & Nantwich and Warrington South in 1983.
Crewe & Nantwich was another of 4 Labour gains that year.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 13:08:16 GMT
Personally I think Birmingham, Erdington and Birmingham, Northfield is a good example if we’re counting by-election losses regained.
I think Northfield was lost in a by-election in 1982.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Dec 29, 2017 14:32:59 GMT
Morley & Outwood/Dewsbury in 2015 Yes... parts of the Dewsbury seat are more Tory friendly than any of Morley & Outwood, I’d say. Dewsbury proper would be massively Labour, I would expect. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 29, 2017 23:00:05 GMT
English Region, 2017: votes Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Total
Eastern 1,690,819 1,012,368 244,054 77,793 58,704 10,588 3,094,326
East Midlands 1,195,982 954,545 101,612 56,358 34,355 14,516 2,357,368
Greater London 1,268,800 2,086,568 336,725 49,369 67,561 19,448 3,828,471
North East 440,613 709,738 58,409 49,348 16,080 5,878 1,280,066
North West 1,301,562 1,972,632 193,053 67,359 41,194 19,892 3,595,692
South East 2,495,330 1,326,379 487,203 102,984 143,873 80,097 4,635,866
South West 1,542,296 875,213 448,730 33,160 68,010 35,250 3,002,659
West Midlands 1,356,486 1,175,095 122,287 50,106 46,569 15,901 2,766,444
Yorkshire & The Humber 1,054,099 1,276,912 129,687 67,801 32,661 43,432 2,604,592
English Regions, 2017: % Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others
Eastern 54.64 32.72 7.89 2.51 1.90 0.34
East Midlands 50.73 40.49 4.31 2.39 1.46 0.62
Greater London 33.14 54.50 8.80 1.29 1.76 0.51
North East 34.42 55.45 4.56 3.86 1.26 0.46
North West 36.20 54.86 5.37 1.87 1.15 0.55
South East 53.83 28.61 10.51 2.22 3.10 1.73
South West 51.36 29.15 14.94 1.10 2.26 1.17
West Midlands 49.03 42.48 4.42 1.81 1.68 0.57
Yorkshire & The Humber 40.47 49.03 4.98 2.60 1.25 1.67
English Region, 2015: votes Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Total
Eastern 1,445,946 649,320 243,191 478,517 116,274 15,374 2,948,622
East Midlands 969,379 705,767 124,039 351,777 66,239 13,201 2,230,402
Greater London 1,233,386 1,545,080 272,544 286,981 171,652 26,622 3,536,265
North East 300,883 557,100 77,095 198,823 43,051 11,201 1,188,153
North West 1,050,124 1,502,047 219,998 459,071 107,889 24,926 3,364,055
South East 2,234,360 804,774 413,586 646,959 227,883 66,407 4,393,969
South West 1,319,994 501,684 428,873 384,546 168,130 33,013 2,836,240
West Midlands 1,098,110 865,075 145,009 412,770 85,653 22,322 2,628,939
Yorkshire & The Humber 796,822 956,837 174,069 391,923 86,471 38,055 2,444,177
English Regions, 2015: % Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others
Eastern 49.04 22.02 8.25 16.23 3.94 0.52
East Midlands 43.46 31.64 5.56 15.77 2.97 0.59
Greater London 34.88 43.69 7.71 8.12 4.85 0.75
North East 25.32 46.89 6.49 16.73 3.62 0.94
North West 31.22 44.65 6.54 13.65 3.21 0.74
South East 50.85 18.32 9.41 14.72 5.19 1.51
South West 46.54 17.69 15.12 13.56 5.93 1.16
West Midlands 41.77 32.91 5.52 15.70 3.26 0.85
Yorkshire & The Humber 32.60 39.15 7.12 16.03 3.54 1.56
English Regions: % changes, 2017 / 2015 Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Swing, Con to Lab
Eastern 5.60 10.70 -0.36 -13.71 -2.05 -0.18 2.55
East Midlands 7.27 8.85 -1.25 -13.38 -1.51 0.02 0.79
Greater London -1.74 10.81 1.09 -6.83 -3.09 -0.24 6.27
North East 9.10 8.56 -1.93 -12.88 -2.37 -0.48 -0.27
North West 4.98 10.21 -1.17 -11.77 -2.06 -0.19 2.61
South East 2.98 10.30 1.10 -12.50 -2.08 0.22 3.66
South West 4.82 11.46 -0.18 -12.45 -3.66 0.01 3.32
West Midlands 7.26 9.57 -1.10 -13.89 -1.57 -0.27 1.15
Yorkshire & The Humber 7.87 9.88 -2.14 -13.43 -2.28 0.11 1.00
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 31, 2017 2:32:46 GMT
Here's the first of what is going to be a huge number of graphs on this. Conservative Vote Change in 2017 and Remain  The two lines represent going through the middle represent first zero change (i.e. where the vote share in 2015 and 2017 was identical), the second is 5.5 points increase, the national Conservative vote share increase (although thinking about it more I should just have done the English one). |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 31, 2017 3:52:52 GMT
Same for Labour. This time the second line represents Labour's England vote share increase  Note that unlike the Tory one, there is actually very little relationship between the Remain vote and the vote share increase, although some of them is obscured by places where the Lib Dems were the main challengers to the Conservatives, there aren't enough of those to make too much of a difference (btw, I've realized I've made an error in both of these - I forgot to exclude Buckingham, this increase the R-squared very, very slightly here but only very slightly. It's only one data point). |
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 31, 2017 10:51:17 GMT
Looking at the 560 English & Welsh constituencies that voted Con/Lab in 2015 and comparing swing/Brexit votes the following R-squared values were obtained for different groups of seats - Large Urban 0.75, Major Urban 0.64, Other Urban 0.43, Rural 50 0.61, Rural 75 0.26, Sig Rural 0.33. Following regression of the swing (a bit ropey) these 11 seats should have remained Tory - Peterborough, Keighley, Crewe & Nantwich, Ipswich, Colne Valley, High Peak, Stockton South, Portsmouth South, Warwick & Leamington, Canterbury, Kensington however the Tories should not have gained any seats from Labour and lost these five seats to Labour - Morley & Outwood, Bolton West, Hendon, Broxtowe, Finchley & Golders Green. Overperformance (over 3%) of swing in select constituencies:- Forecast swing to Con and actual swing to Con.  Forecast swing to Lab but actual swing to Con.  Forecast swing to Con but actual swing to Lab.  Forecast swing to Lab and actual swing to Lab. The largest set and swings moving in both directions.  |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 1, 2018 22:20:14 GMT
Interesting that two seats in the same vicinity went in opposite directions in 2017, High Peak and NE Derbyshire. The demographics of the two seats must be very different. I'm trying to think of the last election when two seats in the same general area were "swapped" between parties. Maybe Cheltenham and Brecon & Radnor in 1992 would qualify. There's also of course Norwich South and Ipswich in 1987. NED must be quite a bit more rural as it excludes Chesterfield so is made up of small mining towns. Whereas HP includes some commuter towns to Manchester (ironically not Derby), Glossop and Buxton, and we know what happened in more urban areas; I'm not sure if it voted remain but they also like to appear more upmarket too. It makes no sense for 'High Peak' to be not only in Derbyshire, but in the 'East Midlands' region at all, it's an odd thing sticking out of Derbyshire. I don't think anyone there would identify with anything but northern, certainly not eastern or a midlander! |
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Post by ccoleman on Jan 1, 2018 23:46:17 GMT
Interesting that two seats in the same vicinity went in opposite directions in 2017, High Peak and NE Derbyshire. The demographics of the two seats must be very different. I'm trying to think of the last election when two seats in the same general area were "swapped" between parties. Maybe Cheltenham and Brecon & Radnor in 1992 would qualify. There's also of course Norwich South and Ipswich in 1987. NED must be quite a bit more rural as it excludes Chesterfield so is made up of small mining towns. Whereas HP includes some commuter towns to Manchester (ironically not Derby), Glossop and Buxton, and we know what happened in more urban areas; I'm not sure if it voted remain but they also like to appear more upmarket too. It makes no sense for 'High Peak' to be not only in Derbyshire, but in the 'East Midlands' region at all, it's an odd thing sticking out of Derbyshire. I don't think anyone there would identify with anything but northern, certainly not eastern or a midlander! This is very much my experience - of the people I've known, and still know, from Buxton and Glossop, they very much consider themselves northerners, and associate strongly with Manchester and the NW of England. |
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