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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 27, 2017 18:53:59 GMT
An issue with Morley and Outwood (and also Bolton West and Plymouth Moor View) is that first term incumbency would have been a factor.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 27, 2017 19:00:50 GMT
2017 was the most ‘Presidential’ election in the UK I can think of. How? The two party leaders were on the telly far less than has been normal, if for different reasons. I guess May can be accused of trying to run the sort of campaign favoured by a French President seeking re-election, but it was the least Presidential campaign ran by Labour since 1983. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 27, 2017 19:03:41 GMT
Given the current political climate, Morley and Outwood isn't really a good fit for Labour. It strikes me as a reactionary constituency. It's the only place in Leeds that returned a BNP councillor. Very shameful. Such a bad fit that 47% of the electorate there voted Labour in May - a higher share of the poll than in quite a few seats that elected Labour MPs. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2017 19:31:44 GMT
2017 was the most ‘Presidential’ election in the UK I can think of. How? The two party leaders were on the telly far less than has been normal, if for different reasons. I guess May can be accused of trying to run the sort of campaign favoured by a French President seeking re-election, but it was the least Presidential campaign ran by Labour since 1983. Certainly the Tory campaign was. All the campaign literature I saw emphasised May and indeed many MPs campaigned based on “standing with Theresa May” etc. Much hype around Corbyn also among. Certainly has a vast personal following among students in a way Brown and Miliband didn’t. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 27, 2017 19:32:04 GMT
2017 was the most ‘Presidential’ election in the UK I can think of. How? The two party leaders were on the telly far less than has been normal, if for different reasons. I guess May can be accused of trying to run the sort of campaign favoured by a French President seeking re-election, but it was the least Presidential campaign ran by Labour since 1983. Really? You may be right about the TV coverage, but I absolutely think that May tried the presidential approach and came unstuck, while Corbyn went on the stump like a US Presidential candidate of the pre-TV age. I don't think it is crazy to say that the story of 2017 was the failure of May's personality (and Farron's too, come to that) and the success of Corbyn's. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2017 19:34:57 GMT
Given the current political climate, Morley and Outwood isn't really a good fit for Labour. It strikes me as a reactionary constituency. It's the only place in Leeds that returned a BNP councillor. Very shameful. Such a bad fit that 47% of the electorate there voted Labour in May - a higher share of the poll than in quite a few seats that elected Labour MPs. Well Labour increased their vote by 10% nationally and when both parties get over 80% combined losing with that vote share isn’t such an impressive result. Labour got a vote share comparable to 2001 nationwide in June. 2001 when this was still a safe Labour area. I don’t think it was a good result at all for a seat where Labour won by over 1,000 in 2010. Contrasts with Halifax sharply where Labour won easily. The extent to which Halifax and Morley & Outwood diverged surprised me a lot. Both seats were won by around 400 votes in 2015. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Dec 27, 2017 19:47:43 GMT
Not sure myself, neither area voted Conservative locally in 2016. If I had to make a guess I'd say the Outwood end would be more Tory inclined but as I say, that's just a guess. i'ts fairly homogeneous, I wouldn't be surprised if every ward voted narrowly Tory Morley North - Churwell, Drighlington, Gildersome... strongly Tory. Morley South - basically Morley & parts of Tingley, was Labour. The rest was fairly split. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 27, 2017 23:07:00 GMT
Some charts (sorry for the image quality but this was done fairly quickly on Excel). First of all, the very clear relationship between the UKIP vote and the change in the Conservative vote. This chart, like all the others covers only the North West region.  The second covers Labour's change between 2010 and 2015 and the Remain vote, by parliamentary constituency using Hanretty's vote projections. Interestingly, this is actually significantly more predictive than 15-17 share change, which gives an r-squared of just 0.1 as opposed to 0.3 here. Even the 10-17 Labour Share Change is barely more predictive (only a little, r-squared is 0.32). Those two stats are the best two positive predictors for Remain I have for the North West measuring the 10, 15, 17 electoral data that I have (and best overall that doesn't feature UKIP or the 2017 Conservative Vote Share Change).  Now, this one is only for the LOLZ, it's the 2015-2017 Lib Dems Change and Remain: No Relationship Whatsoever  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 28, 2017 0:32:57 GMT
Such a bad fit that 47% of the electorate there voted Labour in May - a higher share of the poll than in quite a few seats that elected Labour MPs. Well Labour increased their vote by 10% nationally and when both parties get over 80% combined losing with that vote share isn’t such an impressive result. If that's a commitment to not talking about Stoke North any more, I'll take it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2017 5:59:56 GMT
Well Labour increased their vote by 10% nationally and when both parties get over 80% combined losing with that vote share isn’t such an impressive result. If that's a commitment to not talking about Stoke North any more, I'll take it. Hahahahaha okay. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2017 8:00:59 GMT
Also here are seats in England where Labour won on a lower share of the vote than the 46.7% they polled in Morley & Outwood:
Keighley
Dudley North
Battersea
Leeds North West
Canterbury
Ashfield
Kensington
Sheffield, Hallam
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Post by Ron Swanson on Dec 28, 2017 10:36:18 GMT
Certainly the Tory campaign was. All the campaign literature I saw emphasised May and indeed many MPs campaigned based on “standing with Theresa May” etc. Much hype around Corbyn also among. Certainly has a vast personal following among students in a way Brown and Miliband didn’t. The last sentence isn't entirely untrue, but quite a lot of Labour candidates didn't mention Corbyn at all in their literature. Some had very good results, others didn't. Agree. Both were polarising figures, but I think Corbyn was a net plus on the Labour campaign in most areas, whereas May wasn’t so much. Tory candidates almost all majored on May, and made themselves look like volunteers for a school council. I’ve not heard anyone say they voted Conservative because they wanted May. They might have wanted to vote against Corbyn... whereas there were plenty of votes for Corbyn. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2017 10:55:27 GMT
The last sentence isn't entirely untrue, but quite a lot of Labour candidates didn't mention Corbyn at all in their literature. Some had very good results, others didn't. Agree. Both were polarising figures, but I think Corbyn was a net plus on the Labour campaign in most areas, whereas May wasn’t so much. Tory candidates almost all majored on May, and made themselves look like volunteers for a school council. I’ve not heard anyone say they voted Conservative because they wanted May. They might have wanted to vote against Corbyn... whereas there were plenty of votes for Corbyn. Yes. I remember seeing David Burrowes do the whole “standing with Theresa May” thing. May’s rhetoric did not go down well in such a pro-Remain seat. No wonder Burrowes was ousted. Part of the reason I like Goldsmith is he fights his own campaigns. Particularly true in the 2016 b-e and in June. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 28, 2017 10:58:38 GMT
He's had a complete 180 in terms of popularity, from being nick-named wheres wally for his absence in the constituency to a frequenter of chat shows post Strictly. I would only be interested if his politics had become less awful than they were in the 2013-15 period in particular. He wasn't unpopular, locally and nationally, for no reason. |
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Post by ccoleman on Dec 28, 2017 12:44:19 GMT
Agree. Both were polarising figures, but I think Corbyn was a net plus on the Labour campaign in most areas, whereas May wasn’t so much. Tory candidates almost all majored on May, and made themselves look like volunteers for a school council. I’ve not heard anyone say they voted Conservative because they wanted May. They might have wanted to vote against Corbyn... whereas there were plenty of votes for Corbyn. Yes. I remember seeing David Burrowes do the whole “standing with Theresa May” thing. May’s rhetoric did not go down well in such a pro-Remain seat. No wonder Burrowes was ousted. Part of the reason I like Goldsmith is he fights his own campaigns. Particularly true in the 2016 b-e and in June. It was nauseating stuff - it was all about Theresa May. No info on what the local candidate wanted to do for the area. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2017 12:51:18 GMT
Yes. I remember seeing David Burrowes do the whole “standing with Theresa May” thing. May’s rhetoric did not go down well in such a pro-Remain seat. No wonder Burrowes was ousted. Part of the reason I like Goldsmith is he fights his own campaigns. Particularly true in the 2016 b-e and in June. It was nauseating stuff - it was all about Theresa May. No info on what the local candidate wanted to do for the area. They should’ve left May out of the literature in the Remain areas. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Dec 28, 2017 15:38:44 GMT
The first sign that she might have been an electoral liability, in hindsight, would be the fox hunting and the proposal for a free vote.
Regardless of what one thinks of hunting, and the fact that the vote was pledged as being free... it just gave ammunition to anti Tories everywhere that they were in favour of animal cruelty and so on.
For a start, the issue is beyond the point of correction, and secondly, implementing fox hunting again would (at best) lead to a net gain of zero seats for the party.
Sure, a few rural Tories with five figure majorities might get a slight boost, but in reality, who cares whether your majority is 15k or 18k?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 28, 2017 15:49:54 GMT
It was classic Tory "culture war" stuff - the trouble was, as with some similar gestures pre-election, it riled up their opponents rather more than it excited the "base".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2017 16:05:19 GMT
The first sign that she might have been an electoral liability, in hindsight, would be the fox hunting and the proposal for a free vote. Regardless of what one thinks of hunting, and the fact that the vote was pledged as being free... it just gave ammunition to anti Tories everywhere that they were in favour of animal cruelty and so on. For a start, the issue is beyond the point of correction, and secondly, implementing fox hunting again would (at best) lead to a net gain of zero seats for the party. Sure, a few rural Tories with five figure majorities might get a slight boost, but in reality, who cares whether your majority is 15k or 18k? Easy to paint the Tories as being “out of touch” with policies like that. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 28, 2017 23:57:08 GMT
More, not very pretty Excel graphs, this time covering the whole of England. I noticed this going through the NSSEC data, there was quite a strong correlation between persons in 'Lower Supervisory' occupations in the 2011 census and where the Conservative vote increased.  The Outlier which saw an 10-point increase in the Tory vote share with less than 4% in 'Lower Supervisory' roles is Sheffield Hallam. The other outlier where the Conservative fell nearly 5 points but where 'Lower Supervisory' is 7.5% is Witney. |
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